Afghanistan Index. Also including selected data on Pakistan. Ian S. Livingston and Michael O Hanlon February 29, 2012

Transcription

1 Afghanistan Index Also including selected data on Pakistan Ian S. Livingston and Michael O Hanlon February 29, 212 Brookings Tracks Reconstruction and Security in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan Afghanistan Index» Iraq Index»

2 1 Security Indicators TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.1 American Troops Deployed to Afghanistan UPDATED Other Foreign Troops Deployed to Afghanistan UPDATED Troops Committed to NATO s International Security Assistance Mission (ISAF) by Country Total NATO-ISAF Manpower by Regional Command, Since Size of Afghan Security Forces on Duty UPDATED Annual Growth of Afghan National Army (ANA), by Number of Troops, 23- Present UPDATED Afghan Local Police Growth Afghan Army Units Partnered with NATO Units Attrition Rates among Select Afghan National Security Forces UPDATED Afghan National Army Basic Rifle Marksmanship Qualification Afghan National Security Force Recruits Literacy Rates and Training Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police Ethnicity UPDATED Assessment Levels of Afghan National Security Forces Total Number of Private DoD Contractors in Afghanistan, 27 through Number of Private Security Contractors in Afghanistan, 27 through Private Contractors Training the Afghan National Army U.S. Government Civilians in Afghanistan, August 28-Current Number of Insurgent Attacks per Week by Type, January 28-Current Year-to-Year change in attack frequency by the Haqqani Network Attacks by Afghan Security Forces against Allied Troops U.S. Special Operations against Taliban Assassination Trends in and Around Kandahar, and Nationwide, UPDATED U.S. and Coalition Troop Fatalities since 7, 21 UPDATED Cause of Death for U.S. Troops UPDATED Non-US Coalition Troop Fatalities by Country since 21 UPDATED Proportion of Annual U.S. and Coalition Fatalities by Various Causes UPDATED U.S. Troops Wounded in Action since 7, 21 UPDATED Private Contractor Deaths in Afghanistan, 21 through 21 UPDATED Afghan National Army (ANA) and Afghan National Police (ANP) Personnel Fatalities, January 27-Present Estimated Monthly Violent Civilian Deaths in Afghanistan, Estimated Yearly Civilian Fatalities as Result of Fighting Between Pro-Government Forces and Armed Opposition Groups (AOG), Estimated Percentage of Afghan Civilian Fatalities by Group Which Caused, Journalists Killed in Afghanistan Since Estimated Number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) Number of Afghan Asylum Applications, 21 through Number of U.S. Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) in Afghanistan Breakdown of the Insurgency in Afghanistan Percentage of Close Air Support Sorties with Weapons Releases Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Missions during Number of Detainees in Afghanistan Number of Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Vehicles in Afghanistan Number of Up Armored HMMWV s Issued to Afghan Army and Police USAID Funding by Sector, Estimated War Funding by Agency and Fiscal Year: FY21-FY212 Request U.S. Troop Morale, Confidence and Stress Indicators in Afghanistan Indicators for Measuring Progress in Afghanistan, Developed by David Kilcullen 19 2

3 2 Governance and Rule of Law Indicators 2.1 Afghanistan Population and Demographic Information Size, Gender, and ethnic Makeup of Afghanistan s Main Legislative Bodies Prison Population in Afghanistan, Where Afghans Choose to Take Different Types of Legal Cases Highest Level Degree Acquired by Judges Responding to a Random Survey Access to Legal Resources for Judges Responding to a Random Survey Judges in Kandahar Province Annual Poppy Cultivation in Afghanistan (ha) and Percentage of Global, Annual Opium Production in Afghanistan (mt) and Percentage of Global, Opium Poppy Cultivation Levels in Afghanistan (with Top-Producing Provinces), Monthly Farm-Gate Cost of Dry Opium Since September 24 (US$/KG) Afghanistan s Rank in Reporters Without Borders Index of Press Freedom, UPDATED Afghanistan s Rank in Transparency International s Annual Corruption Perceptions Index UPDATED Economic and Quality of Life Indicators 3.1 Annual Inflation Real GDP Growth and Nominal GDP, UPDATED Pay Charts for Afghan National Security Forces Pay Charts for Individuals in the Afghan Legal System Comparison of Electricity Supply Sources and Capacity: 1979, 22, 27 and Estimated Number of Telephone Users in Afghanistan by Year, Education Metrics Foreign Aid Pledged and Disbursed, Aid Channeled Through UN Agencies, International and Local NGOs, ICRC, and the Red Cross/Red Crescent Societies, Healthcare Metrics UPDATED Polling and Public Opinion Afghanistan in 21: A Survey of the Afghan People (Asia Foundation) UPDATED Afghanistan: Where Things Stand (ABC News/BBC/ARD) Afghanistan Public Opinion Survey (International Republican Institute) 36 5 Pakistan Indicators 5.1 Number of Monthly Attacks by Type, 28-Present UPDATED Monthly Fatalities as a Result of Attacks by Group, 28-Present UPDATED Monthly Attacks by Province, January 26-Present UPDATED Annual Number of Suicide Attacks by Province, Monthly Unmanned Drone Strikes in Pakistan, Estimated Total Deaths from U.S. Drone Strikes in Pakistan, UPDATED Pakistani Army Casualties, UPDATED Journalists Killed in Pakistan Since Number of Pakistani Asylum Applications, 21 through Annual Real GDP Growth Rate Direct Overt U.S. Aid and Military Reimbursements to Pakistan, FY 22-FY 212 UPDATED For more information please contact Ian Livingston at ilivingston@brookings.edu 3

4 FIGURE 1.1 American Troops Deployed To Afghanistan 1 Note on the Methodology of the Afghanistan Index: Although the footnotes to the Afghanistan Index document our sources in detail, it is worth noting here a few broad points. The majority of our information comes from the U.S. Government, though we must often analyze it and process it further to show trends over the full period since 21. Some information comes from foreign journalists on the ground and from nongovernmental organizations; a very modest amount to date comes from Afghan sources. Most tables and charts are straightforward representations of data as we obtain it from the above primary sources, with only modest further analysis and processing required. However, a few graphics, such as those on crime and unemployment rates, require more methodological work (and more assumptions) on our part and are as a result also perhaps somewhat less precise than most of the tables and charts. 1. SECURITY INDICATORS 1, 97, 89, 8, 71,7 6, 4, 34,4 26, 27,5 2, 9,6 13,6 17,2 19,7 4,67 Nov-1 Jan-2 Mar May Sep Nov Jan-3 Mar May Sep Nov Jan-4 Mar May Sep Nov Jan-5 Mar May Sep Nov Jan-6 Mar May NOTE: As of the end of February 212 there were roughly 89, U.S. troops in Afghanistan. These figures include troops under ISAF and Operation Enduring Freedom. For a full order of battle, please see: Sep Nov Jan-7 Mar May Sep Nov Jan-8 Mar May Sep Nov Jan-9 Mar May Sep Nov Jan-1 Mar May Sep Nov Jan Mar May Sep Nov Jan FIGURE 1.2 Other Foreign Troops Deployed To Afghanistan 2 Month Number Month Number Month Number February 22 5, September 18, June 32,28 March 5, 2, 34,55 5, November 21, 36,23 May 4,5 December 21, December 38,37 June 5, January 27 21,46 February 21 38,71 September 4,7 March 21,75 March 38, , 21,75 4,139 September 5, May 24, June 41,7 24 5,5 24,25 41,315 June 6, September 26,43 August 41,389 August 6,5 3,177 4,432 September 8, December 26,73 November 4,93 1, February 28 28,25 December 41,73 November 9,4 28, February ,893 December 8,5 June 29,35 March 42,23 January 25 9, September 29,81 May 42,4 February 8, 3,1 June 42,381 June 8, November 31,15 August 4,697 August 1,5 December 31,4 September 4,67 December 9, January 29 31,88 4,638 May 26 9, February 31,52 December 4,313 June 9,7 March 32,14 January 212 4,386 August 15, 32,175 4

5 FIGURE 1.3 Troops Committed to NATO s International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) By Country 3 AS OF: 2, 211 1Turkey recognizes the Republic of Macedonia with its constitutional name 2 Snapshot figure that includes overlapping rotations. NOTE: The total foreign troop presence also includes about 3, (mainly American) troops organized under Operation Enduring Freedom. FIGURE 1.4 Total NATO-ISAF Manpower by Regional Command (RC), Since , 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, CAPITAL EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH 2, 1, Oct-6 Dec-6 Feb-7 Apr-7 Jun-7 Aug-7 Oct-7 Dec-7 Feb-8 Apr-8 Jun-8 Aug-8 Oct-8 Dec-8 5 Feb-9 Apr-9 Jun-9 Aug-9 Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 NOTE: Data points represent months for which a precise estimate is available. As the figures for a given month provide a snapshot assessment, they should be considered approximations. Figures do not reflect U.S. troops that are part of Operation Enduring Freedom.

6 FIGURE 1.5 Size of Afghan Security Forces on Duty 5 Month Ministry of Defense Ministry of Interior Total Afghan Forces Forces Security Forces End 23 6, 6, End 24 24, 33, 57, End 25 26, 4, 66, End 26 36, 49,7 86, End 27 5, 75, 125, 28 57,8 79,91 137, , 79,91 147,91 March 29 82,78 79,91 162, ,9 81,2 172,92 November 29 95, 95, 19, December 29 1,131 94, ,89 March , 12, 215, /May ,388 14, ,847 August , 19, 243, September ,164 12,54 258, , ,367* 261,5 December , , ,389 Jan/Feb , 118,8 27, ,3 122, 286,3 May ,37 128, ,659 August ,76 134,865 33,941 September , ,122 36, ,15 139,7 312,22 December ,61 143,8 323,41 January , ,577 33,14 Both ANA and ANP met manning goals set for 211. The goal for ANA by November 212 is 195, soldiers and the goal for ANP is 157, security forces by the same time. *revised reporting FIGURE 1.6 Annual Growth of Afghan National Army (ANA), By Number of Troops, 23-Present 6 2, 18, 179,61 184,437 16, 149,533 14, 12, 1, 1,131 8, 79,68 6, 5, 4, 36, 24, 26, 2, 6, * NOTE: Figures for are as of year end. *212 is through January. FIGURE 1.7 Afghan Local Police Growth 7 Month Officers in program February 211 4,343 June 211 6,2 September 211 7,577 NOTE: 3, personnel is entered in the FY212 Budget Justification Book. As of September 211, 746 of the total are still in training and the remainder have been trained. Overall manning of ALP is 27%. 6

7 FIGURE 1.8 Afghan Army Units Partnered with NATO Units % % 1% 7% FIGURE 1.9 Attrition Rates among Selected Afghan National Security Forces 9 12% 1% ANA AUP ABP ANCOP 8% 6% 4% 2% % Nov-9 Dec-9 Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Goal (monthly) NOTE: In a briefing by Lt. Gen. William Caldwell on August 23, 21, annual attrition rates of 23% for the Afghan National Army (ANA) and 16% for the Afghan National Police (ANP) were announced. In the month prior to the briefing, annual attrition rates of 47% were reported among the civil order police, which now number 5,7 and is expected to grow to 18,5 by Oct. 31, 211. As of September 21, less than half of ANA units have been assessed. FIGURE 1.1 Afghan National Army Basic Rifle Marksmanship Qualification 1 November November 21 (Goal) 35% 97% 95% FIGURE 1.11 Afghan National Security Force Recruits Literacy Rates and Training 11 Totally illiterate Number in training Number completed training 86% 57,5 95% NOTE: As of March 211. There were also 1,848 Afghan instructors for ANSF, the largest teacher employer in the nation. 7

8 FIGURE 1.12 Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police Ethnicity 12 Pashtun Tajik Hazara Uzbek Others ANA ANP ANA ANP ANA ANP ANA ANP ANA ANP Officer 43% 4% 4% 49% 7% 5% 4% 3% 6% 3% NCO 48% 32% 41% 55% 6% 5% 3% 4% 2% 4% Soldier / Patrolman 44% 47% 3% 35% 13% 4% 8% 7% 5% 7% Total Force 45% 42% 35% 42% 1% 5% 6% 6% 4% 6% National Avg 44% 25% 1% 8% 13% NOTE: As of December 211. FIGURE 1.13 Assessment Levels of Afghan National Security Forces 13 ANA Army Kandaks May-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-11 Feb-11 Apr-11 Unassessed Newly Established Developing Effective w/ Assistance Effective w/ Advisors Independent 1 ANP AUP Districts/Precincts May-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-11 Feb-11 Apr-11 Unassessed Newly Established Developing Effective w/ Assistance Effective w/ Advisors Independent NOTE: These assessments do not currently cover all units. The effective w/ assistance category includes units with different levels of readiness. 8

9 FIGURE 1.14 Number of Private Defense Department Contractors in Afghanistan, 27 through Year Private Contractors 27 38, 28 71, 29 17, 21 88, 211 (Mar) 9, NOTE: Employed by U.S. companies, but not necessarily Americans. These figures only count those employed by the U.S. Department of Defense. All figures are year end unless noted otherwise. FIGURE 1.15 Number of Private Security Contractors in Afghanistan, 27 through , 18, 16, All Local Nationals 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Sep- 7 Dec- 7 Mar- 8 Jun- 8 Sep- 8 Dec- 8 Mar- 9 Jun- 9 Sep- 9 Dec- 9 Mar- 1 Jun- 1 Sep- 1 Dec- 1 Mar- 11 NOTE: These figures cover just those involved in security assistance whether armed or unarmed. FIGURE 1.16 Private Contractors Training the Afghan Army 16 Month Contractors March 21 2, NOTE: When contractors training the Afghan Defense and Interior ministries are counted, the total number is 2,765. FIGURE 1.17 U.S. Government Civilians in Afghanistan, August 28-Current Aug-8 Oct-8 Dec-8 Feb-9 Apr-9 Jun-9 Aug-9 Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-11 Number of U.S. Civilian Field Personnel by Region as of May 21 North East South West

10 FIGURE 1.18 Number of Insurgent Attacks and Type by Week, January 28-Current 18 NOTE: For a graph of 24 through early 21 please see versions of the Afghanistan Index prior to November 21. FIGURE 1.19 Year-to-Year change in attack frequency by the Haqqani Network 19 Year Cross-border attacks Roadside bombs (IEDs) % +2% FIGURE 1.2 Attacks by Afghan Security Forces against Allied Troops 2 Year # of attacks * 9 NOTE: These attacks have killed 51 soldiers and wounded 48 more. *Through the beginning of June. FIGURE 1.21 U.S. Special Operations against Taliban 21 Year ending early 211 Insurgent leaders killed or captured ~1,5 Insurgents killed ~3,2 Insurgents captured ~8, NOTE: Since 29, the number of special-ops strike teams has grown from four to 2. A strike team consists of 1 to 1 men. Summer 21 Insurgent leaders killed or captured 235 Rank-and-file insurgents killed 1,66 Rank-and-file insurgents captured 1,673 NOTE: Operations conducted in a 9-day period ending early September 21. In a previous period ending mid-august, 11,587 Afghan civilians received medical humanitarian (unrelated to operations) treatment during similar operations. Nearly 4, missions were conducted between May and August 21, the highest tempo of the war. FIGURE 1.22 Assassinations Trends in and Around Kandahar, and Nationwide, Year Number of Incidents 29 >1 per month 21 >5 per month 211 >1 per month NOTE: In the first four months of 28, 29 and 21 there were 6, 15 and 27 assassinations respectively. According to NATO, 131 assassinations were reported in the first nine months of 211 across all of Afghanistan, an increase of 61% year to year. The United Nations reported 462 assassinations nationwide in 21, double the prior year. 1

11 11 FIGURE 1.23 U.S. and Coalition Troop Fatalities since 7, Non-U.S. U.S Oct 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan 21 Jan 211 Jan 212 NOTE: Due to data reporting, this graph and the breakdowns below include some fatalities from outside Afghanistan, mainly in the Philippines, Pakistan, and other countries associated with Operation Enduring Freedom. In most months, there are no fatalities in locations outside Afghanistan. As of January 3, 212 there have been at least 1,787 U.S. fatalities attributed directly to fighting in or non hostile deaths in Afghanistan. Indicates the start of a new calendar year Total from 7, 21 through February 29, 212: ALL FATALITIES HOSTILE NON-HOSTILE U.S. 1,9 1, Non-U.S TOTAL 2,895 2, FIGURE 1.24 Cause of Death for U.S. Troops, By Year 24 Year Improvised Explosive Device Suicide Bombs Mortars/RPG s/ Rockets Landmine 11 Helicopter Losses* Aircraft Losses* Other Hostile Fire Non- Hostile Causes* 21 (%) (%) (%) (%) 2 (16.7%) (%) 4 (33.3%) 6 (5.%) (1.2%) (%) 1 (2.%) 1 (2.%) 4 (8.2%) 18 (36.7%) 12 (24.5%) 8 (16.3%) (2.1%) (%) (%) (%) 19 (39.6%) (%) 12 (25.%) 16 (33.3%) (23.1%) (%) 1 (1.9%) 1 (1.9%) 2 (3.8%) 3 (5.8%) 1 (19.2%) 23 (44.2%) (18.2%) (%) 2 (2.%) 5 (5.1%) 36 (36.4%) 1 (1.%) 2 (2.2%) 17 (17.2%) (27.6%) 3 (3.1%) 1 (1.%) 1 (1.%) 21 (21.4%) (%) 33 (33.7%) 12 (12.2%) (28.2%) 1 (.9%) 9 (7.7%) 1 (.9%) 13 (11.1%) (%) 35 (29.9%) 25 (21.4%) (54.2%) 4 (2.6%) 7 (4.5%) 2 (1.3%) 2 (1.3%) (%) 36 (23.2%) 2 (12.9%) (45.5%) 8 (2.6%) 21 (6.7%) (%) 13 (4.2%) 2 (.6%) 91 (29.1%) 35 (11.2%) 312* (51.5%) 8 (1.6%) 16 (3.2%) (%) 2 (4.%) (%) 164 (32.9%) 34 (6.8%) (43.8%) 9 (2.2%) 12 (2.9%) (%) 35 (8.4%) (%) 132 (31.6%) 47 (11.2%) (19.5%) (%) (%) (%) 6 (14.6%) (%) 17 (41.5%) 1 (24.4%) 41 Total 77 (4.5%) 33 (1.7%) 7 (3.7%) 11 (.6%) 173 (9.1%) 24 (1.3%) 566 (29.8%) 253 (13.3%) Through February 29, 212 *Helicopter and aircraft losses include deaths caused by both non-hostile accidents and those downed by hostile fire. The Non-Hostile Causes data then does not include non-hostile helicopter or aircraft losses. 29 numbers do not include U.S. intelligence officials killed in a suicide bombing in December. For detailed demographic information including gender, race and military component, please see Operation Enduring Freedom Military Deaths at: Total 19

12 FIGURE 1.25 Non-U.S. Coalition Troop Fatalities by Country since United Kingdom Canada France Germany Italy Denmark Poland Spain Australia Total through February 29, 212: 999 FIGURE 1.26 Proportion of Annual U.S. and Coalition Fatalities by Various Causes 26 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Netherlands Romania Norway Georgia Estonia Hungary Sweden Czech Republic New Zealand Latvia Portugal Finland Turkey Jordan Albania Lithuania South Korea Belgium NATO IED* Other Hostile Other Explosives Non-Hostile Incidents *Improvised Explosive Device Figures Updated Thru: February 29, 212 NOTE: Figures depicted on the graph illustrate the raw number of such fatalities in a given year. Percentages are calculated based on overall totals for each respective year. Other Explosives includes hostile attacks carried out with rockets, grenades and/or mortars. Fatalities from downed aircraft and helicopters are classified under either Other Hostile or Non-Hostile Incidents depending on whether they were shot down or crashed due to mechanical failure

13 FIGURE 1.27 U.S. Troops Wounded In Action since 3, January January January 24 3 January January January 27 January 28 Total from 7, 21 through February 29, 212: 15, January January 21 January January 212 The daily Department of Defense casualty reports that we use for our monthly estimates on U.S troops wounded does not make it entirely clear when in a 24- hour period casualties were incurred. Since the reports are published at 1AM daily, there is possibility that our numbers for January 25 and onwards are slightly off due to uncertainties about whether casualties occurred on the first or the last of each month. FIGURE 1.28 Private Contractor Deaths in Afghanistan, 21 through * NOTE: Numbers correspond to insurance claims received by the U.S. Labor Department. There have been a total of 1,95 claims since September 1, 21 (the beginning of the reporting period). Numbers correspond to new claims during the period, the deaths may have occurred in a prior period. *211 figures through December

14 FIGURE 1.29 Afghan National Army (ANA) and Afghan National Police (ANP) Personnel Fatalities, January January 27-December ANP ANA January March May September November January March May September Month Jul. 1 Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 11 Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. ANA ANP TOT November January 29 March May September 4 3 November ANNUAL TOTALS * 211** ANA ANP NOTE: Figures from 27 through mid-29 provided by NATO-ISAF and differ from those published in a January 29 report released by the U.S. Department of Defense. This report estimated 332 ANA fatalities and 692 ANP fatalities for 27, with 28 figures shown only through 28. Graphical numbers for the second half of 29 are estimated based on information from several sources. *21 numbers through August include 39 ANA soldiers killed and 491 ANP officers killed, and only the September through December numbers above are included in the total as not to double count. From The 21 through 211 are rounded to the nearest 5 based off a graph of the data. **211 figures are through. FIGURE 1.3 Estimated Monthly Violent Civilian Deaths in Afghanistan, January February March May June August September November December NOTE: The United Nations documented 368 conflict-related civilian fatalities in May 211, making if the deadliest month since they have been tracking. Estimates of civilian fatalities in Afghanistan vary widely. 14

15 FIGURE 1.31 Estimated Yearly Civilian Fatalities as Result of Fighting Between Pro-Government Forces and Armed Opposition Groups (AOG), Non-Attributable AOG Pro-Government FIGURE 1.32 Estimated Percentage of Afghan Civilian Fatalities by Group Which Caused, % 8.% 75.2% 75.% 77.% 7.% 6.% 58.2% 54.8% 58.4% 5.% 4.% 39.1% Pro-Government Anti-Government Non-Attributable 3.% 24.8% 26.6% 24.% 2.% 15.2% 18.% 16.% 14.% 1.% 6.1% 9.% 9.%.%

16 FIGURE 1.33 Journalists Killed in Afghanistan Since Year Killed Year Killed * NOTE: 24 journalists have been killed in Afghanistan "motive confirmed" since the Committee to Protect Journalists began tracking. For comparable information on Pakistan, see the Pakistan Index. *One media worker was also killed in 27, not included in the number above. FIGURE 1.34 Estimated Number of Internally Displaced Persons in Afghanistan (IDPs) 34 May 28 15, ,945 March , December , FIGURE 1.35 Number of Afghan Asylum Applications, 21 through , 5, 52,485 4, 3, 25,446 26,796 24,8 2, 18,434 14,217 1, 8,835 7,723 8,648 9, NOTE: In each year, several countries reported a range of 1-4 individual rather than an actual number. These countries were not included in the totals above, but are insignificant as far as trends go. 16

17 FIGURE 1.36 Number of U.S. Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) in Afghanistan 36 January 21 >18 FIGURE 1.37 Breakdown of the Insurgency in Afghanistan 37 Year Number 24 1,7-3,2 21 ~3, NOTE: As of summer 21, the estimated number of Al Qaeda leaders and fighters in Afghanistan was 5-1, with ~3 in Pakistan. By summer 211, the estimates of Al Qaeda in Pakistan had dropped to 5-8. As of early 211, the average age of an insurgent leader in Helmand Province has fallen from 35 to 23 since counterinsurgency operations began in the area. FIGURE 1.38 Percentage of Close Air Support Sorties with Weapons Releases 38 Close Air Support Sorties/CAS Sorties with Weapons Releases 35, 3, 25, 26,474 29,948 Sorties 2, 15, 13,962 19,92 CAS Sort ies CAS w/weapons Release 1, 5, 5,198 5,51 4,184 4, Year FIGURE 1.39 Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Missions in Afghanistan during ,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Jan 29 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan 21 Mar May Jul Sep 17

18 FIGURE 1.4 Number of Detainees in Afghanistan 4 No. of Detainees 211 2, FIGURE 1.41 Number of Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Vehicles in Afghanistan < 3, 21 ~ 9,4 FIGURE 1.42 Number of Up Armored HMMWV s Issued to Afghan Army and Police 42 Through 29 Since 29 UAH s to ANA 2,871 1,654 UAH s to ANP - 2,249 FIGURE 1.43 USAID Funding by Sector, FY 29 FY 21 FY 9-1 Est. Disbursements Est. Disbursement Est. Disbursement RC-E 48,72,72 758,467,495 1,239,188,197 RC-N 11,748,77 234,375, ,124,29 RC-S 56,289, ,93,14 22,219,62 RC-SW 35,527, ,517,129 19,45,71 RC-W 43,153,367 91,143, ,296,883 Grand Total $ 726,44,36 $ 1,42,433,737 $ 2,128,874,43 FIGURE 1.44 Estimated War Funding by Agency and Fiscal Year: FY21-FY212 Request 44 NOTE: Billions of dollars of budget authority. 18

19 FIGURE 1.45 U.S. Troop Morale, Confidence and Stress Indicators in Afghanistan 45 Year U.S. Army soldiers reporting feeling acute stress 25 6% % % NOTE: In addition, morale dropped from 65.7% in 25 to 46.5% in 21. Confidence in the skill of the command has grown from 38.6% in 25 to near 5% in 21. FIGURE 1.46 Indicators for Measuring Progress in Afghanistan, Developed by David Kilcullen 46 Population-related Host Nation Security Force Enemy Voluntary reporting IEDs reported versus IEDs found Price of exotic vegetables Transportation prices Progress of NGO construction projects Influence of Taliban versus government courts Participation rate in programs Taxation collection Afghan-on-Afghan violence Rate of new business formation and loan repayment Urban construction new-start rate Percentage of local people with secure title to their house and land Assassination and kidnapping rate Civilian accessibility Where local officials sleep Officials business interests Percentage of officials purchasing their positions Budget executions Capital Flight Rate of anti-insurgent lashkar formation Public safety function Kill ratio Win/loss ratio Kill versus wound/capture ratio Detainee guilt ratio Recruitment versus desertion rates Proportion of ghost employees Location at start of firefight EOF incidents and CIVCAS Duration of operations Small-unit operations Combined action operations Dismounted operations Driving technique Reliance on air and artillery support Pattern-setting and telegraphing moves to the enemy Possession of high ground at dawn High-technology inserts Insurgent medical health Presence of specialist teams and foreign advisors Insurgent village-oforigin First-to-fire ratio Price of black-market weapons and ammunition Insurgent kill/capture versus surrender ratio Mid-level insurgent casualties 19

20 2. GOVERNANCE & RULE OF LAW INDICATORS FIGURE 2.1 Afghanistan Population and Demographic Information 47 TOTAL MALE FEMALE POPULATION (millions) 32.7 (51%) (49%) ETHNICITY Pashtun 13.7 (42%) Tajik 8.8 (27%) Hazara 2.9 (9%) Uzbek 2.9 (9%) Aimak 1.3 (4%) Turkmen 1. (3%) Baloch.7 (2%) Other 1.3 (4%) FIGURE 2.2 Size, Gender, And Ethnic Makeup of Afghanistan s Main Legislative Bodies 48 Wolesi Jirga (House of the People) Ethnicity Pashtun Tajik 64 7 Hazara 35 5 Uzbek Aimaq 2 4 Turkman 4 3 Arab 3 2 Pashayee 4 2 Nuristani 2 2 Baloch 2 1 NOTE: The Wolesi Jirga consists of directly elected provincial representatives. The number of representatives each of Afghanistan s 34 provinces receives is calculated according to population. The Wolesi Jirga constitutes the first step in passing legislation, with all bills passing with two-thirds majority being forwarded to the Meshrano Jirga (House of Elders) and then the President. The Wolesi Jirga also has final say on the appointment of government ministers and other high-ranking officials. Meshrano Jirga (House of Elders) TOTAL SEATS MEN WOMEN GENDER (75%) 26 (25%) ETHNICITY Pashtun 36 (35%) Tajik 32 (31%) Hazara 16 (16%) Uzbek/Turkmen 8 (8%) Baluchi 3 (3%) Nuristani 3 (3%) Others 4 (3%) NOTE: Two-thirds of the Meshrano Jirga is indirectly elected by the Provincial and District Councils while the remaining third is appointed directly by the President. Provincial Councils (34 total, one for each Province) TOTAL SEATS MEN WOMEN GENDER (7%) 124 (3%) NOTE: Provincial Councils consist of between 9 and 29 directly elected representatives, based on the population of the Province. 2

21 FIGURE 2.3 Prison Population in Afghanistan, , 18, 18, 16, 15,666 14, 12, 11,78 12,379 1, 9,15 8, 7,2 6, 4,6 4, 2, NOTE: Numbers are through September in all years except for 29 where numbers are through December. 21 is as of May. In addition to the detainees in Afghan custody noted above, there were 1, detainees under U.S. custody as of May 21. FIGURE 2.4 Where Afghans Choose To Take Different Types of Legal Cases 5 Dispute Over Land 55% 38% 7% Other Property Dispute 4% 43% 17% Commercial Dispute 5% 32% 18% Divorce Pick-pocketing 53% 62% 3% 27% 17% 11% State Court Shura/Jirga Other Community Forum Robbery/Burglary 58% 26% 16% Physical Assault 5% 32% 18% Murder 82% 12% 6% % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1% NOTE: Results based on survey of approximately 6,2 Afghans polled in February 27. Answers refer to a hypothetical situation and not actual events. 21

22 FIGURE 2.5 Highest Level Degree Acquired By Judges Responding To a Random Survey 51 5% 45% 44.% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 2.5% 16.1% 15% 11.6% 1% 7.7% 5% % University (Shariat) University (Law) Other University Non University (Madrassa or Equivalent) Non University (Primary/Secondary) NOTE: Results based on a May 26 random survey of 157 judges, of whom 17 work with the Supreme Court, 48 on Provincial Appeals Courts and 92 on Urban or District Primary Courts. Shariat refers to a degree received from an Islamic Law faculty. Madrassas are schools below the university level whose curriculum focuses mostly on traditional Islamic scholarship. FIGURE 2.6 Access to Legal Resources for Judges Responding To a Random Survey 52 ACCESS YES NO Statutes or other governmental regulations 63.7% 36.3% Textbooks on the law 45.2% 54.8% Written decisions of the Supreme Court 17.2% 82.8% Professional support from an experienced mentor 19.1% 8.9% NOTE: Results based on a May 26 random survey of 157 judges, of whom 17 work with the Supreme Court, 48 on Provincial Appeals Courts and 92 on Urban or District Primary Courts FIGURE 2.7 Judges in Kandahar Province 53 Year Judges NOTE: These numbers are estimates based on ISAF data as of March 211. Estimated total need is at least 5 judges. 22

23 FIGURE 2.8 Annual Poppy Cultivation in Afghanistan (Hectares) and Percentage of Global Cultivation, % 82% 82% 8% 2 67% 69% 74% 66% 63% 7% 6% % 37% 47% 41% 193 5% 4% Hectares ('s) % Global Cultivation 5 18% 16% 26% 27% 21% 22% 22% 23% 19% % FIGURE 2.9 Annual Opium Production in Afghanistan (Metric Tons) and Percentage of Global Production, % 2% 1% % 9 1% % 42% 51% 48% 3,416 61% 52% 52% 62% 58% 2,84 2,693 4,565 79% 3,276 7% 75%75% 3,4 3,6 92% 92% 89% 8,2 87% 89% 88% 7,7 4,2 4,1 6,1 6,9 3,6 74% 5,8 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Metric Tons % Global Production 2 2,33 1,981,97 2,335 2,248 2% 1 1,57 11% 1% 185 %

24 FIGURE 2.1 Opium Poppy Cultivation Levels in Afghanistan (Select Top-Producing Provinces), (Hectares) 56 2, 18, 16, , , Hectares 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, All Afghanistan Helmand Farah Kandahar Nangarhar NOTE: In 211, Nangarhar Province ranked #5 in cultivation across the country. Uruzgan (not shown above) is the current #4 with 1,62 (ha). FIGURE 2.11 Monthly Farm-Gate Price for Dry Opium since September 24 (US$/Kg) US$ per Kilogram September 24 December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March June September December March Through: MARCH

25 FIGURE 2.12 Afghanistan s Rank in Reporters without Borders Index of Press Freedom, YEAR SCORE RANK NUMBER OF COUNTRIES SURVEYED NOTE ON INDEX OF PRESS FREEDOM TABLE: The Index is based on a questionnaire with 5 criteria for assessing the state of press freedom in each country. It includes every kind of violation directly affecting journalists (such as murders, imprisonment, physical attacks and threats) and news media (censorship, confiscation issues, searches and harassment). In addition to taking into account abuses attributable to the state, those carried out by armed militias, clandestine organizations or pressure groups are also considered. The lower the score attained, the higher the degree of press freedom in that respective country. Although there is no specific information given regarding how the overall score was compiled, the top-rated countries for 27 received an overall score of.75, with the median receiving a score of The overall average score for the 27 Index was FIGURE 2.13 Afghanistan s Rank in Transparency International s Annual Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) 59 YEAR RANK NUMBER OF COUNTRIES SURVEYED (T) (T) (T) NO DATA (T) 159 (T): Indicates years Afghanistan s score tied with one or more other country. NOTE: The CPI is a composite index that draws on 14 expert opinion surveys. It scores countries on a scale from zero to ten, with zero indicating high levels of perceived corruption and ten indicating low levels of perceived corruption. Due to a lack of reliable data, Afghanistan was not included in the CPI survey for the years

26 3. ECONOMIC & QUALITY OF LIFE INDICATORS FIGURE 3.1 Annual Inflation FORECAST FIGURE 3.2 Real GDP Growth and Nominal GDP, 22/23-212/ % 2% 15% 15.1% 16.1% 14.2% 2.4% 1% 8.8% 8.2% 8.2% 8.% 8.5% 5% 3.4% % 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 Forecast NOMINAL TOTAL ($US billions) 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1* 21/11* *Data based partly on estimates. 26

27 FIGURE 3.3 Pay Charts for Afghan National Security Forces 62 Afghan National Security Forces NOTE: All salary numbers above are in U.S. $ per month. Figures as of May 21. Combat Plans Division (CPD) Forces NOTE: All salary numbers above are in U.S. $ per month. Figures as of May

28 FIGURE 3.4 Pay Charts for Individuals in the Afghan Legal System 63 Supreme Court NOTE: All salary numbers above are in U.S. $ per month. Figures as of May 21. Ministry of Justice Legal Aid Department NOTE: All salary numbers above are in U.S. $ per month. Figures as of May 21. Attorney General Prosecutor NOTE: All salary numbers above are in U.S. $ per month. Figures as of May 21. FIGURE 3.5 Comparison of Electricity Supply Sources and Capacity: 1979, 22, 27 and YEAR HYDRO (MW) THERMAL IMPORTED OTHER* (MW) TOTAL CAPACITY (MW) (MW) (MW) n/a n/a n/a n/a *Includes diesel, micro-hydro and renewable NOTE: As of September 29, it is estimated that 15 percent of households in urban centers have access to electricity and 6 percent in rural locations have access. Operational capacity was 6 percent of installed total capacity at last report. 28

29 FIGURE 3.6 Estimated Number of Telephone Users in Afghanistan by Year, ,, 12,, 1,, 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, * *21 figures as of March 31, 21. 4% of the population is estimated to have a cell phone. FIGURE 3.7 Education Metrics 66 Estimated Annual Enrollment in Elementary and Secondary Education, ,, 8,, 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, Girls Boys 3,, 2,, 1,, NOTE: It is estimated that in 21 less than 1 million students were enrolled in primary/secondary education, virtually none of them girls. 29

30 FIGURE 3.8 Foreign Aid Pledged and Disbursed, ($ Billion) 67 DONOR Total Pledged AID Disbursed % of Pledges Disbursed by end of 29 US % EU Institutions % United Kingdom % Germany % Canada % Japan % Netherlands % Norway % India % Sweden % Italy % Turkey % Australia % Iran % Spain % Denmark % France % Finland % Russia % Switzerland % Multilateral Agencies % Others % TOTAL % NOTE: PLEDGED aid is promised but yet to be devoted for a specific purpose and DISBURSED aid has been earmarked and delivered. FIGURE 3.9 Aid Channeled Through UN Agencies, International and Local NGOs, ICRC, and the Red Cross/Red Crescent Societies, US$ Million UN Agencies, Funds and Commissions International NGOs ICRC, Red Cross, and Red Cresent Societies Local NGOs Year 3

31 FIGURE 3.1 Healthcare Metrics % People Living In Districts Where Basic Package of Health Care Program (BPHC) Is Being Implemented % 25 77% 26 82% NOTE: The BPHC is a program started in 22 by the Ministry of Public Health to provide essential basic healthcare throughout Afghanistan s districts. Life Expectancy Men Women Infant and Children Under-Five Mortality Rates (Per 1, Live Births) Infant Children Under Five NOTE: 21 numbers do not include the South Zone of Afghanistan which was too violent to get accurate reporting on. It is believed that mortality rates there are about 15-25% higher. % OF AFGHAN CHILDREN RECEIVING VARIOUS VACCINATIONS BCG Vaccine 57% 7% Polio Vaccine 3% 7% NOTE: The BCG is a vaccination to prevent tuberculosis. 31

32 4. POLLING & PUBLIC OPINION AFGHANISTAN IN 211: A SURVEY OF THE AFGHAN PEOPLE 73 Asia Foundation, November 211 (6,348 Afghan adults from throughout the country were interviewed) FIGURE 4.7 Present Condition of Various Infrastructure in Localities, INFRASTRUCTURE VERY/QUITE GOOD (%) QUITE/VERY BAD (%) Availability of clean drinking water Availability of water for irrigation Availability of jobs Supply of electricity Availability of medical care Availability of education for children Survey Released: September 27, 28, 29, November 21, and November 211. FIGURE 4.8 Question: Which Is The Main Source From Where You Normally Get Information About What Is Happening In The Country? (27-211) 8% 73% 7% 68% 6% 61% 64% 57% 57% 62% 5% 54% 51% 47% 53% 46% 54% 45% 53% 4% Radio TV Friends/Family/Neighbors 3% 2% 1% 26% 14% 28% 16% 16% 5% 21% 18% 28% 27% 12% 11% 25% 18% 24% 2% 14% 9% 28% 19% 22% 18% 16% 7% 28% 2% 23% 17% 17% 11% % All Rural Urban All Rural Urban All Rural Urban All Rural Urban All Rural Urban Survey Released: September 27, 28, 29, November 21, and November

33 AFGHANISTAN: WHERE THINGS STAND 74 ABC News/BBC/ARD Poll, November 21 (1,691 Afghan adults from throughout the country were interviewed) Previous surveys depicted took place March 24, September 25, September 26, November 27, January 29, December 29, and November 21. FIGURE 4.1 Question: Generally Speaking, Do You Think Things in Afghanistan Today Are Going In the Right Direction, or Do You Think Things Are Going In The Wrong Direction? (24-21) 9% 8% 77% 7% 7% 64% 6% 59% 55% 54% 5% 4% 4% Right direction Wrong direction 38% 3% 28% 2% 22% 24% 21% 1% 11% 6% % Jan-9 Dec-9 Nov-1 FIGURE 4.2 Performance Ratings for Various Entities* 9% 83% 8% 8% 7% 6% 68% 57% 67% 64% 59% 63% 52% 71% 61% 62% 58% 5% 4% 43% 49% 38% Hamid Karzai Afghan Government U.S. in Afghanistan 3% 32% 32% 2% 1% % Jan-9 Dec-9 Nov-1 *% of respondents who answered Excellent or Good to the Question: How would you rate the work of? 33

34 FIGURE 4.3 Question: Is Your Opinion of the Taliban Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable Or Very Unfavorable? 9% 8% 76% 74% 79% 75% 7% 69% 68% 6% 5% 4% Jan-9 Dec-9 Nov-1 3% 2% 1% % 21% 15% 15% 13% 13% 12% 1% 8% 7% 7% 6% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable No opinion FIGURE 4.4 Question: Who Would You Rather Have Ruling Afghanistan Today? 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 9% 91% 88% 86% 84% 82% Nov-1 Dec-9 Jan % 1% % 9% 1 % 6% 6% 4% 5% 6% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 5% 6% 1% 1% 2% Current Government Taliban Other No opinion 34

35 FIGURE 4.5 Question: Which Of The Following Do You Think Poses The Biggest Danger In Our Country? Taliban 41% 52% 57% 58% 64% 69% Drug Traffickers 13% 11% 14% 2% 23% 28% Local Commanders 9% 9% 7% 6% 6% 22% Jan-9 Dec-9 Nov-1 United States 4% 8% 1% 8% 4% 6% Current Afghan government 2% 3% 1% 1% 2% 1% % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% FIGURE 4.6 Question: How Much of A Problem Is the Issue of Corruption among Government Officials or the Police in this Area? 8% 76% 7% 63% 6% 55% 5% 4% 45% 5% 35% Jan-9 Dec-9 Nov-1 3% 27% 2% 23% 21% 19% 1% % 11% 11% 11% 1% 9% 8% 6% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% Big problem Moderate problem Small problem Not a problem No opinion 35

36 AFGHANISTAN PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY 75 The International Republican Institute, November 29 (2,4 Afghan adults from throughout the country were interviewed) Previous surveys depicted took place May and 29 Released: January 19, 21 FIGURE 4.9 Question: Do you think Afghanistan is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction? 7% 6% 62% 56% 5% 4% 3% 3% 37% 27% 24% 26% May-9 Jul-9 Nov-9 2% 1% 7% 13% 11% 4% 3% % Right Direction Wrong Direction Neither DK/REF FIGURE 4.1 Question: Did you vote in the August 2, 29 presidential election? 35% Yes No 65% 36

37 FIGURE 4.11 Question: Do you think the presidential election held on August 2, 29 was free and fair? 21% 44% Yes No DK/REF 35% FIGURE 4.12 Question: Do you think Hamid Karzai is the legitimate President of Afghanistan? 14% 21% Yes No DK/REF 66% 37

38 FIGURE 5.1 Number of Monthly Attacks by Type, 28-Present PAKISTAN INDICATORS Terrorist/Insurgent Attack Clashes between Security Forces and Militants Operational attacks by Security Forces 5 Other* 28 December February June August December February June August December February June August December * Other includes ethnic & political violence, inter-tribal clashes and cross-border attacks. We have excluded drone attacks from the other category as it is covered later in the Index. FIGURE 5.2 Monthly Fatalities as a Result of Attacks by Group, 28-Present Civilians Militants Security Forces December February June August December February June August December February June August December 38

39 FIGURE 5.3 Monthly Attacks by Province, January 26-Present Khyber Pakhtunkhwa FATA Balochistan Punjab Sindh January 26 March May September November January 27 March May September November January 28 March May September November January 29 March May September November January 21 March May September November January 211 March May September November January 212 FIGURE 5.4 Annual Number of Suicide Attacks by Province, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa FATA Balochistan Punjab Sindh NOTE: In addition to the attacks noted above, two additional suicide attacks occurred in Azad Kashmir during 29, bringing the yearly total to

40 FIGURE 5.5 Monthly Unmanned Drone Strikes in Pakistan, Jan Apr Jul 5 4 Oct Jan Apr 3 Jul Oct Jan 1 NOTE: Figures are cumulative from (through publication date). All districts with the exception of Bannu (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) are located in FATA. FIGURE 5.6 Estimated Total Deaths from U.S. Drone Strikes in Pakistan, Apr Jul 4 5 Oct Jan Apr 2 7 Jul Oct 9 3 Jan DEATHS (low) DEATHS (high) 212* All Militant All Militant All Militant All Militant All Militant All Militant Total All 1,741 2,712 Militant 1,448 2,241 *Through February 15, 212 4

41 FIGURE 5.7 Pakistani Army Casualties, , 3,5 3, 2,5 2, Injured Killed 1,5 1, Numbers from are from the Pakistani military numbers are via The Pak Institute for Peace Studies and are through the month prior to current index. FIGURE 5.8 Journalists Killed in Pakistan Since Media Worker Motive Unconfirmed Motive Confirmed NOTE: A total of 42 journalists have been killed "motive confirmed" since the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) began tracking in Through December 211, Pakistan has ranked in the top-5 deadliest countries for journalists each year since 25, according to CPJ. Pakistan ranked #1 in 211. FIGURE 5.9 Number of Pakistani Asylum Applications, 21 through Year Applications Year Applications 21 1, , , , , , , , , ,8 NOTE: In each year since 27, several countries reported a range of 1-4 individuals as an asterisk rather than an actual number. These individuals were not included in the totals above and make up a very small additional number. 1 41

42 FIGURE 5.1 Annual Real GDP Growth Rate 85 9.% 8.% 7.% 7.4% 7.7% 6.% 6.1% 5.6% 5.% 4.9% 4.% 3.9% 4.% 3.% 3.2% 3.% 2.% 2.% 2.% 2.% 1.%.% (AVG) * 211* *Figures based at least in part on estimates FIGURE 5.11 Direct Overt U.S. Aid and Military Reimbursements to Pakistan, FY 22-FY $3, 2,851 2,735 $2,5 $2, 1,674 1,727 $US millions $1,5 $1, ,313 1,26 1,127 1,536 1,367 1,143 1,277 1, , Security-Related Economic-Related $ $ (est.) 213 (req.) NOTE: As of August 211. Total continuing resolution funds have not been released on country-specific levels for 211, so the request is included here. 42

43 FIGURE 5.1 Additional Sources of Information on Afghanistan Source 5. AFGHANISTAN RESEARCH TOOLS Web Site Address International Security Assistance Force ISAF, in support of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, conducts operations in Afghanistan to reduce the capability and will of the insurgency, support the growth in capacity and capability of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), and facilitate improvements in governance and socio-economic development, in order to provide a secure environment for sustainable stability that is observable to the population. Afghanistan Conflict Monitor An Initiative of the Human Security Report Project at the School for International Studies at Simon Fraser University. Provides summaries of academic articles and reports, links to documents, publications and data. AfghanWire Afghanwire.com provides an internet-based news and information service to organisations and professional users who want to monitor Afghanistan s national media outlets. 43

44 1 Hannah Fairfield and Kevin Quealy, Troop Levels in Afghanistan Since 21, New York Times, 1, 29. Accessed at: Institute for the Study of War, Afghanistan Order of Battle, November 29. Accessed at: February 21 figures: David Petraeus, Meet the Press, February 21, 21, accessed at US weighs more troops for north Afghanistan: official, Agence France Presse, March 19, 21. John J. Kruzel, Special Forces in Iraq to Remain through Drawdown, American Forces Press Service, 1, 21. Anne Gearan, More US troops in Afghanistan than Iraq, a first, Associated Press, May 24, 21. Luis Martinez, Gates, Mullen & Clinton React to McChrystal, Abc News, June 24, 21. Robert Reid, US casualties in Afghanistan soar to record highs, The Associated Press, 31, 21. Robert Reid, "5 More American Troops Die in Afghan Fighting", Associated Press, August 31, 21. Robert Burns and Julie Pace, "With Afghan control by 214, Obama sees combat end", Associated Press, November 21, 21. Tom Vanden Brook, "Afghan pilot kills 9 U.S. trainers", USA Today, 28, 211. "American Forces in Afghanistan and Iraq", New York Times, June 22, 211. Admiral Michael Mullen, "Statement Before the Armed Services Committee on Afghanistan and Iraq", September 22, 211. Accessed at: Jim Garamone, "Report Cites Security Progress in Afghanistan", American Forces Press Services, 28, 211. Lolita C. Baldor, "1K US Troops Left Afghanistan in 211", Associated Press, December 22, Michael O Hanlon and Adriana Lins de Albuquerque, Afghanistan Index, February 23, 25. Accessed at: Victor Davis Hanson, "Will Iraq work? That's up to us", National Review Online, 23, 24. U.S. Department of State, "The U.S. and Nato: An Alliance of Purpose", June 24. Jon Lee Anderson, "The Man in the Palace: Hamid Karzai and the dilemma of being Afghanistan's President", The New Yorker, June 6, 25. Thom Shanker, "Coalition Steps Up Raids as Afghan Elections Approach", The New York Times, August 2, 25. Ahmed Rashid, "Nato's Afghanistan troop dilemma", BBC News, December 26, 25. Michael R. Gordon, "NATO Moves to Tighten Grip in Afghanistan", The New York Times, June 9, 26. Peter Bergen, "Trees and tapes may hint at bin Laden location", CNN, August 28, 26. Mark John and Kristin Roberts, "NATO takes over Afghanistan war", The Sydney Morning Herald, September 3, 26. U.S. Department of Defense, "Correcting the Record", 5, 26. Thom Shanker, "Leaving NATO, U.S. General Still Seeks Troops for Afghanistan", The New York Times, December 21, 26. CBC News, "NATO troops in Afghanistan in November 26", November 29, 26. ISAF Troop Placemat, NATO-ISAF Web site. Accessed at: 3 ISAF Troops Placemat, NATO-ISAF website. Accessed at: 4 Ibid. 5 U.S. Department of Defense, Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan, Report to Congress in Accordance with the 28 National Defense Authorization Act, June 28, p. 22. Accessed at: GAO-8-661, Afghanistan Security: Further Congressional Action May Be Needed to Ensure Completion of a Detailed Plan to Develop and Sustain Capable Afghan National Security Forces, Government Accountability Office, June 28, p. 33. Accessed at: Major General Robert Cone, Press Conference from Afghanistan, November 12, 28. Accessed at: ISAF Troops Placemat, NATO-ISAF website. Accessed at: Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, January 3, 21, p. 6. Accessed at: ISAF, Metrics Brief May 21, unclassified briefing slides. David Gollust, "US Envoy Reports Progress on Afghan Security", Voice of America, December 21, 24. Caroline Wadhams, "Afghanistan: Four Years After the Invasion", Center for American Progress, 25, p. 5. Accessed at: Anthony Cordesman, "Winning in Afghanistan: How to Face the Rising Threat", Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 12, 26, p. 65. Accessed at: CJ Radin, "Afghan National Security Forces Order of Battle", The Long War Journal, January 28. Accessed at: ISAF, Metrics Brief February 211, unclassified briefing slides. ISAF, Metrics Brief May 211, unclassified briefing slides. Gen John Keane, "Congressional Testimony", House Armed Services Committee, 27, 211. Accessed at: 7a836a34e144. ISAF, "September 211 ANSF Progress Overview", unclassified briefing slides. ISAF, " 211 ANSF Progress Overview", unclassified briefing slides. ISAF, "November 211 ANSF Progress Overview", unclassified briefing slides. ISAF, "January 212 ANSF Progress Overview", unclassified briefing slides. ISAF, "February 212 ANSF Progress Overview", unclassified briefing slides. 6 Ann Scott Tyson, More Recruits, U.S. Arms Planned for Afghan Military, Washington Post, December 5, 27. U.S. Department of Defense, Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan, Report to Congress in Accordance with the 28 National Defense Authorization Act, January 29, p. 35 (and subsequent reports). Accessed at: ISAF Troops Placemat, NATO-ISAF website. Accessed at: (and subsequent updates). Combined Security Transition Command Afghanistan, Afghan National Army Total End Strength, November 29 unclassified briefing slides. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, January 3, 21, p. 6. Accessed at: U.S. Department of Defense, Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan, Report to Congress in Accordance with the 28 National Defense Authorization Act, 21, p. 6. Accessed at: ISAF, Metrics Brief May 21, unclassified briefing slides. ISAF, Metrics Brief 21, unclassified briefing slides. ISAF, Metrics Brief February 211, unclassified briefing slides. ISAF, "September 211 ANSF Progress Overview", unclassified briefing slides. ISAF, " 211 ANSF Progress Overview", unclassified briefing slides. Ibid. 7 ISAF, Metrics Brief February 211, unclassified briefing slides. Rod Nordland, "Some Police Recruits Impose Islamic Tax on Afghans", The New York Times, June 13, M. O Hanlon, I. Livingston and H. Messera, States of Conflict: An Update, The New York Times, December 27, 21. 9Ibid. Department of Defense, DOD News Briefing with Lt. Gen. Caldwell via Teleconference from Afghanistan, August 23, 21. ISAF, Metrics Brief September 21, unclassified briefing slides. ISAF, Metrics Brief 21, unclassified briefing slides. ISAF, Metrics Brief January 211, unclassified briefing slides. ISAF, " 211 ANSF Progress Overview", unclassified briefing slides. ISAF, "November 211 ANSF Progress Overview", unclassified briefing slides. ISAF, "January 212 ANSF Progress Overview", unclassified briefing slides. 1 ISAF, Metrics Brief September 21, unclassified briefing slides. 11 ISAF, Metrics Brief 211, unclassified briefing slides. 12 ISAF, Metrics Brief 211, unclassified briefing slides. ISAF, "January 212 ANSF Progress Overview", unclassified briefing slides. 13 ISAF, Metrics Brief September 21, unclassified briefing slides. ISAF, Metrics Brief June 211, unclassified briefing slides. 14Moshe Schwartz, "Department of Defense Contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan: Background and Analysis", Congressional Research Service, December 14, 29. Accessed at: Matt Kelley, Afghanistan Becomes More Dangerous For Contractors, USA Today, 22, 21. Moshe Schwartz, Department of Defense Contractors in Iraq, Congressional Research Service, 2, Moshe Schwartz, "The Department of Defense's Use of Private Security Contractors in Afghanistan and Iraq: Background, Analysis, and Options for Congress", February 21, 211, p. 8. Accessed at: Afghanistan-and-Iraq (and subsequent updates). 15Moshe Schwartz, "The Department of Defense's Use of Private Security Contractors in Afghanistan and Iraq: Background, Analysis, and Options for Congress", February 21, 211, p. 21. Accessed at: (and subsequent updates). 16Walter Pincus, U.S. fights trainer shortage, illiteracy in Afghanistan, The Washington Post, March 17, U.S. Mission Kabul, Metrics Brief May 21, unclassified briefing slides. U.S. Mission Kabul, Metrics Brief September 21, unclassified briefing slides. U.S. Mission Kabul, Metrics Brief March 211, unclassified briefing slides. 18 Strategic Advisory Group Headquarters ISAF, Security Metrics: March 29, prepared 16, 29 (and subsequent updates) 19Mark Mazzetti, Scott Shane and Alissa J. Rubin, "Brutal Haqqani Crime Clan Bedevils U.S. in Afghanistan", New York Times, September 25, 211 2Tom Vanden Brook, "'Insider' Afghan Attacks Blister", USA Today, June 14,