How equity income funds can provide regular and higher income with lower volatility for investors. Patrick Noble August 2009
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1 How equity income funds can provide regular and higher income with lower volatility for investors Patrick Noble August
2 Important Information This information is general in nature and does not take into account personal objectives, financial situations or needs and is not a personal recommendation about any securities, stocks or options mentioned. This presentation has been prepared specifically for the exclusive use of financial advisers, researchers and trustees. It is not to be published without the prior written consent of Zurich Financial Services Australia Limited ABN Unless otherwise indicated the information in this presentation is, dated September 09, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at this date and is subject to change. However, it should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on, or study of, any matter and should not be relied on as such. Neither Zurich Investment Management Limited ABN AFSL , Zurich Australia Limited ABN AFSLN nor any related entities, or any of their employees or directors (Zurich) give any warranty of reliability or accuracy and to the fullest extent possible under law, accept no responsibility arising in any way whatsoever including by reason of negligence for errors or omissions. Investors should consider the Zurich Investments Equity Income Fund PDS when making financial decisions about the fund. The PDS is available for your financial adviser or Zurich. Past Performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Zurich Australia Limited ABN AFSL Zurich Investment Management Limited ABN AFSL Blue Street North Sydney NSW 2060 Phone PNOE
3 Australia s population is ageing Percentage of population older than 65 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% yrs Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
4 And living longer 90 Australian life expectancies Male (at birth) Female (at birth) Male (at 65) Female (at 65) Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
5 Not so super $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 Retirement income and longevity Mean super balance 2007 $141,900* Comfortable lifestyle single $37,822 p.a. $ Mattress 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5% Drawdown of $35,000 per annum * Mean accumulation balance for year olds Source: The Westpac ASFA Retirement Standard; APRA
6 Many caught off guard by crisis Poor risk management processes High levels of leverage Obscure and complex structures Liquidity problems
7 Falling share prices and high volatility Jul 07 Nov 07 Apr 08 Sep 08 Feb 09 Jun 09 VIX (LHS) S&P/ASX 200 (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, Zurich Investments 7
8 Income challenge - Investment issues Income, what are the options? Will normalised interest rates circa 5.5% be sufficient? Rising bond yields; inflation or deflation? Volatile equity markets and dividend cuts Downside protection relevant for all investor portfolios
9 Strategies for volatile markets Well known strategies Less familiar strategy Diversification Re-balance portfolios to defensive allocations Stay focused on the long term Use exchange traded options to get a defined risk reward outcome Source: Denning Pryce; Zurich Investments 9
10 Options basics Exchange components of risk and return Call option The buyer of a call option has the right to purchase shares at a set price in the future in return for paying a premium to the seller (also known as the writer). Put option A buyer of a put option receives the right to sell shares at a set price in the future. By purchasing a put option, investors receive some downside protection should the shares fall below the (higher) specified price. Source: ASX; Denning Pryce
11 Options can be used in many ways Speculative Unlisted Conservative Listed No shares held Held over shares Magnify returns Smooth returns Magnify losses Protect against losses Gearing Enhance income Source: Zurich Investments
12 Meeting the challenges with options Generate income in all market conditions Provide some downside protection in falling markets Deliver conservative growth Source: Denning Pryce; Zurich Investments
13 The Covered Call or Buy Write strategy $6 $4 Buy write strategy Involves selling call options to generate additional income over and above dividends from shares held in an underlying portfolio. $2 $0 M P $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 -$2 -$4 -$6 Source: Denning Pryce; Zurich Investments
14 The Buy Write - Historical outcomes Buy Write Portfolio All Ords/ S&P/ASX 200 Accum Index Buy Write Portfolio Performance Relative to Index Bank Bills Quarterly Returns Number of quarters Mean 2.96% 2.40% 0.56% 1.98% Median 2.47% 1.93% 0.65% 1.52% Standard Deviation 5.78% 6.15% 0.74% 1.00% Annual Returns 11.86% 9.59% 2.23% 7.93% December 1987 to December 2002 Source: SIRCA
15 Considerations Exchange Traded versus Over The Counter options Does active stock selection reconcile with a Buy Write? Strategy should provide targeted exposure and appropriate return ratio (combination of capital and income) Appropriate protection to the downside
16 Targeting income and exposure 100% 100% Exposure 50% 15% Income Exposure 50% Income Market Exposure 0% 4% Yield Premium Income Market Exposure 0% NET 6% Premium income targeted +4% Yield Premium Income Yield Out of the money At the money In the money Out of the money At the money In the money Strike Price Strike Price Source: Denning Pryce; Zurich Investments 9/11/
17 Executing an option strategy Step 1 Blue Chip Share Portfolio ASX 50 Leaders only Step 2 Generate income Step 3 Provide some protection & growth Active option management Results in sharemarket exposure, dividends and franking credits Results in additional income, dampened volatility and some capital growth Source: Denning Pryce; Zurich Investments 17
18 Generating income: BHP Call options $36.00 $0.00 $34.00 $0.50 $32.00 $30.00 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $28.00 $2.50 $26.00 $3.00 $24.00 $22.00 Sell Call at $2.62 The trade generates income as the option moves out of the money $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $ /01/ /02/ /02/ /03/2009 $5.00 BHP (LHS) BHP June 09 C $33.00 (Inverted RHS) Source: Bloomberg, Zurich Investments
19 Woolworths for income $29.00 $28.00 $27.00 $26.00 $26.63 Active target level 5/02/09 19/02/09 5/03/09 19/03/09 2/04/09 16/04/09 30/04/09 14/05/09 28/05/09 11/06/09 25/06/09 9/07/09 23/07/09 6/08/09 20/08/09 3/ /09/09 1/10/09 15/10/09 29/10/09 12/11/09 26/11/09 $25.00 $24.00 $23.00 $22.00 Source: Bloomberg, Zurich Investments ex dividend date Target average down
20 CBA Put strategy $50.00 $47.50 $45.00 $42.50 $40.00 $37.50 $35.00 $32.50 $30.00 $27.50 $25.00 $22.50 $43.65 $42.00 $38.00 Absorb $2 5/02/09 19/02/09 5/03/09 19/03/09 2/04/09 16/04/09 30/04/09 14/05/09 28/05/09 11/06/09 25/06/09 9/07/09 23/07/09 6/08/09 20/08/09 3/09/09 17/09/09 1/10/09 15/10/09 29/10/09 12/11/09 26/11/09 Source: Bloomberg, Zurich Investments ex dividend date downside BUT! Protection over 10% share value for 2% cost for 100 days
21 Managing downside: Index Put options $ $ $ $ $ The put provides protection, $ Buy put 3100 increasing in value when the at $140 index falls 3000 $ /12/ /01/ /02/2009 4/03/2009 S&P/ASX 200 (LHS) March 2009 P3400 (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, Zurich Investments 21
22 Summary Use all the tools at your disposal Look beyond conventional strategies to help meet your clients objectives Options strategies can work in all market conditions to provide additional income and lower risk 22
23 Meeting the challenges with options Generate income in all market conditions Provide some downside protection in falling markets Deliver conservative growth Zurich Investments Equity Income Fund
24 A strategy for all seasons S&P/ASX 200 All Australian Annualised Risk and Return for 2 years and 8 months ended June 2009 (before tax and before fees) Comparison with the Mercer Australian Shares Universe Annual Return (% pa) Median Annualised Standard Deviation (% pa) calculated monthly S&P/ASX 200 S&P/ASX 50 Equity Income Fund Targets a running yield of 10% pa Low volatility 1 year semi deviation 11.93% Cushion market falls 1 year excess return 14.4% 24 Source: Mercer, Zurich Investments
25 Thank you 25
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