Notebook Market Predictions, 2003

Transcription

1 Notebook Market Predictions, 2003 Dataquest Predicts Abstract: Microprocessor churn, a disappointing Tablet PC introduction, increasing wireless hot spots and wireless interfaces plus higher memory and optical storage capacity are on the horizon for notebooks in Leslie Fiering, Andy Woo, Lillian Tay, Robin Simpson, Ian Keene and Kiyomi Yamada Strategic Planning Assumptions Banias will become the mainstream processor (with more than 50 percent of unit shipments) in large enterprises by mid-2004 (0.7 probability). The demand for low-priced, high-performance systems will drive the demand for transportable notebooks to at least 45 percent of the total mobile PC shipments into the home market and at least 40 percent into the small office and home office market (0.7 probability). Pen Tablet PC shipments will not exceed 425,000 units in 2003 (0.7 probability). By 2007, at least 35 percent of all notebooks sold will have screen digitizers with a convertible or separable keyboard design (0.6 probability). By 2005, 80 percent of all commercial notebooks will have an interface (0.8 probability). Bluetooth's mainstream application will be as a cable-replacement technology through 2005 (0.8 probability). By mid-2004 CD-RW drives for notebooks will be completely replaced by combination DVD/CD-RW drives (0.8 probability). The standard configuration for large-enterprise mainstream notebooks by mid-2004 will be 512MB DDR RAM (0.7 probability). Publication Date:November 4, 2002

2 2 Notebook Market Predictions, 2003 Introduction The following document provides Gartner Dataquest's key predictions for the notebook market, followed by its expected impact in 2003 and recommendations as to how to react. Gartner Dataquest Perspective Prediction No : A Year of Frustration and Confusion Regarding Mobile Processor Choices Mobility, weight and battery requirements will drive adoption of Intel's coming mobile chip, code-named "Banias," in large enterprises while the demand for low price and high performance will drive the growth of transportable notebooks in homes and small businesses. Transportable notebooks weigh more than 8 pounds, have desktop components and are poweredbyadesktopormobileprocessorwithagreaterthan45-watt thermal envelope. The introduction of Banias will create frustration for vendors and confusion for buyers as they try to sort through the myriad Intel processor choices:banias,pentium4mobile,pentiumiiimobile,pentium4desktop and Celeron. Vendors will be forced to gamble in their 2003 product road maps. Users will be at risk for buying notebooks with processors that either don't meet their needs or that will not survive beyond Banias will appeal to large enterprises at which "thin and light" systems are mainstream. Banias' power management will allow longer battery life in systems with wireless radios as well as smaller, lighter form factors. Consumers and small businesses, especially in emerging markets, will continue the 2002 trend of choosing the low-price/high-performance features of notebooks with desktop processors. Vendors will need to segment their target customer base carefully to understand usage patterns and purchase drivers. It will also be critical for vendors to have a close understanding of Intel's mobile processor road map and to maintain vigilance for shifts as Intel responds to market demands throughout In addition, vendors should: Do a better job than Intel has done to date of articulating the value proposition of Banias to enterprise buyers. Differentiate Banias notebooks by making them thinner and lighter than previous generations. A minimum of 2.5 hours of battery life must be maintained, even when running with a wireless radio. Provide viable transportable notebook offerings that optimize high performance/low price for consumers and emerging economies.

3 3 Enterprise notebook buyers should: Consider Banias for mainstream purchases. Be wary of transportable notebooks. With the level of desktop and processor churn expected in 2003, transportable notebook models are likely to turn frequently, resulting in a proliferation of system images. Prediction No. 2 Tablet PC Will Ramp Up Slowly but Eventually Gain Broad Horizontal Adoption Microsoft mispositioned Tablet PC, which is not about a new hardware form factor. Tablet PC is a Windows operating system extension that includes a new data type (ink) with pen enablement. While it is true that hardware has to change to make it ergonomically feasible to access the new features, the strength of the desire to use the new software will determine the extent and speed of the hardware change. Despite extensive hype and marketing expenditure, 2003 Tablet PC sales will be disappointing. Lack of application support, clumsy hardware designs and a steep price premium will be barriers for most users. On the other hand, Tablet PC will have a natural fit in many vertical applications that use pen-based tablets. The advantage of Tablet PC will be leveraging existing expertise in Windows programming. Early purchasers are likely to be "heat seekers" who always gravitate to new technology, and high-level managers looking for "executive jewelry" to exhibit their technology savvy. The majority of early purchases will come from large enterprises and vertical industries for evaluation purposes. These will be in lots of one to 10 systems. Expect at least a six- to nine-month evaluation period before any volume purchases, even in vertical industries. Companies considering horizontal applications may still opt, at that point, only to implement small pilot projects. Vendors are cautioned not to become irrationally exuberant about Pen Tablet's market potential in On the other hand, they should avoid despair at the inevitable backlash that will follow the lack of immediate success. Gartner Dataquest makes the following recommendations to vendors: Since vertical industries are likely to be the earliest adopters, focus on healthcare, public safety, homeland security, and insurance. If vertical sales and support expertise does not exist in-house, partner with valueadded resellers and independent software vendors that are familiar with these verticals.

4 4 Notebook Market Predictions, 2003 Focus on tablet designs because these predominate in verticals, but look for opportunities to introduce convertible and hybrid (that is, tablet plus base and keyboard) designs to gain traction with new applications. Target enterprise buyers for horizontal applications with "convertible" notebook/pen tablets because these designs are perceived to have less risk. Both large- and small-enterprise buyers are cautioned to bypass the first round of Tablet PC products (software and hardware) unless there is a specific project that would benefit from Tablet PC's unique features. Ideal applications include: Forms Annotation of maps, photos and diagrams Note taking in a social setting (for example, case workers) Prediction No. 3 WiFi and Bluetooth Will Not Be Mutually Exclusive Wireless Choices in Commercial Notebooks The growing number of wireless fidelity (WiFi) hot spots in airports, hotels, conference centers and other public areas are giving users the opportunity to experience the speed and convenience of wireless local-area networks (LANs). All the large notebook vendors are partnering and investing heavily in growing the number of public hot spots to promote greater demand for wireless-enabled notebooks. Vendors are still making claims about networking use for Bluetooth, but the predominant applications continue to be between two specific devices, for example, headset and phone or mouse and notebook. The growing number of public hot spots will mean that many notebook users, even those whose enterprises have not implemented networks internally, will find numerous opportunities to use wireless networks. Home wireless networks are a growing phenomenon, especially in the United States and Australia. Public hot spots and strong promotion by resellers are driving adoption. Response to the current round of Bluetooth-enabled peripherals will be mixed in Ease-of-setup, interoperability and security problems will lessen but continue to hound these devices through the year. Usage in notebooks will be less than in mobile phones. Enterprises should include b interfaces in all their new notebook purchases. Even if wireless LANs are not installed in the enterprise, public hot spots can help make mobile workers more productive. Furthermore, there is a strong likelihood of implementation in the enterprise within the three-year useful life of the notebook.

5 5 Enterprises must develop Bluetooth device-use guidelines to minimize costs and select interoperable products for device-device pairing applications (for example, mobile phone to headset or PC mouse to keyboard). To ensure that Bluetooth connectivity capabilities do not jeopardize data security, enterprises must: At a minimum, require link-level security to be activated on all Bluetooth-enabled devices. Profile-level security is an even better solution. Base purchasing decisions on a balance of ease of security management, ease of setup and interoperability among desired devices Create corporate policies and set user expectations regarding which devices, applications and profiles will be supported. Consider single-vendor solutions to minimize support costs and interoperability problems. Prediction No. 4 Memory and Optical Drive Capacity Will Continue to Expand in Notebooks The prediction for expanded memory and optical drive capacity is not particularly surprising. On the other hand, understanding what to expect and when to expect it is critical for vendor product road maps and user notebook acquisition planning. DVD is becoming increasingly popular on commercial notebooks because of the larger storage capacity. However, a single standard for rewritable DVD has yet to emerge as large interests in entertainment and the PC industry battle over the DVD+RW and the DVD RAM format. As a result, the industry has resorted to combination drives of DVD/CD-RW. In 2003, there will still be a price premium for the combination drive, but by mid- 2004, the price will be virtually the same as for a plain DVD drive. Microsoft Office 11 will ship in the latter half of Numerous planned performance enhancements are likely to take advantage of larger memory footprints. Unless there is close control of both the writing and the reading DVD devices, enterprises should avoid DVD rewritable drives to avoid incompatibility issues. For general use, combination drives should be specified where rewritable media are required. 256MB should remain the specified memory configuration through 2003 for mainstream notebooks.

6 6 Notebook Market Predictions, 2003 Key Issues What market forces are affecting computing hardware platform shipments and revenue, now and in the future? How will wireless technologies affect each computing hardware platform segment? This document has been published to the following Marketplace codes: HARD-WW-DP-0378 For More Information... In North America and Latin America: In Europe, the Middle East and Africa: In Asia/Pacific: In Japan: Worldwide via gartner.com: Entire contents 2002 Gartner, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice