Summary of Empresas ICA, S.A.B. de C.V. ( ICA ) s Business Plan

Transcription

1 Basis of Preparation The business plan was developed to be consistent with the expected ongoing businesses of the Construction and Concessions segments, while most of the other parts of the business are treated as long-term investments (equity method). Legal Entity Division Financial Statement Treatment (Q3 2015) Business Plan Treatment Controladora de Empresas de Vivienda S.A. de C.V. Housing Consolidated Held as an unconsolidated investment, proceeds to be paid to its creditors Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. Airport Consolidated Equity Investment Controladora de Operaciones de Infraestructura, S.A. de C.V. Concession >52% owned - Consolidated; <52% owned - Equity >50% owned - Consolidated; <50% owned - Equity Investment with the exception of DIPESA, MITLA & Investment TUCA II which are treated as investments Constructora ICA, S.A. de C.V. Ingenieros Civiles Asociados, S.A. de C.V. Note: The reason that the threshold for consolidating concessions increases to 52% in the business plan (from 50%) is to reflect the fact that the OVT concessions (which ICA own 51%) are treated as equity investments in the business plan (vs. being consolidated in the Company's financial statements). Also note that Facchina and ICA Fluor are incorporated in the business plan as long-term investments Accordingly, the Business Plan has been simplified, and does not follow the IFRS consolidating accounting policies that the Company follows for its financial statements. However, this method presents a clearer picture of these concessions profits and cash generation that would be available for debt service. Business Plan Principles The Company has adopted the following principles in developing the Business Plan herein: International and Housing / Real Estate Divisions 1. The international Division along with the Housing / Real Estate Division are being wound down. 2. In addition, the Company will be exiting its International Concession projects that have not yet started. Concessions 3. The expansion of the Concession division will be limited to completing the Palmillas project in the near future. Post restructuring, ICA will assess investing in new concessions, although no such investments are reflected in the Business Plan. 4. The Company will return or have the Government invest in the Barranca Larga concession as it is not viable to complete on a stand alone basis. Construction Airports 5. Going forward, the Construction Business will be limited to the Mexican operations. 6. The strategy going forward will be to get back to the basics: a) Minimize the amount of work that is performed out of scope and without a contractual change order. b) Profitability will be the main driver. 7. Continue to own the control shares in OMA. Construction All consolidated (Facchina, Mexican Construction, International Construction, San Martin) except for Los Portales (Equity Investment) Same but San Martin & Facchina treated as equity investments

2 Presented below is ICA s projected income statement from 2016 to 2020 in MXN million: Revenue 14, , , , ,266.2 Cost of Goods Sold (11,829.0) (9,411.5) (8,537.4) (6,606.0) (7,618.9) Gross Margin 2, , , , ,647.3 Margin (%) 18.3% 25.7% 28.2% 33.8% 32.4% Selling General and Administrative (1,691.9) (1,002.0) (1,048.1) (1,095.3) (1,146.8) % of Sales 11.7% 7.9% 8.8% 11.0% 10.2% Operating Income , , , ,500.5 % of Sales 6.6% 17.7% 19.4% 22.9% 22.2% Add Back: Depreciation and Amortization EBITDA 1, , , , ,896.2 Margin (%) 8.0% 21.5% 23.1% 26.8% 25.7% Depreciation and Amortization (194.9) (477.4) (441.9) (395.6) (395.6) Interest Expense (1,631.0) (1,697.0) (1,672.9) (1,555.1) (1,455.7) Foreign Exchange Gain (Loss) (211.1) (163.8) (167.4) (153.1) (137.0) Dividends Other Income (Loss) Earnings Before Taxes (300.8) , ,622.3 Income 30% 90.2 (283.8) (285.0) (342.3) (486.7) Net Income (Consolidated) (210.6) ,135.6 Minority Interest 97.3 (49.1) Net Income Attributable to ICA (113.3) ,135.6 Projected Revenues The following table summarize projected revenue by business segment: Consolidated Revenues Domestic Construction 7, , , , ,077.4 International Concessions 6, , , , ,188.8 Total Revenue 14, , , , ,266.2 Approximately 57.0% of the 5-year cumulative revenue is expected to come from the Domestic Construction segment, with the balance coming from the concessions segment. Revenue is projected to decrease in nominal terms at a 6.0% 4-year CAGR from For 2016, approximately 97.3% of revenues from the Construction segment are projected to come from existing projects.

3 Revenue from concessions only include the revenues of the Autopista Río de Los Remedios Ecatepec (ANESA), Sarre and Papagos Penitentiaries and the Autopista Apaseo Palmillas (Palmillas) concessions. Concession revenues are expected to decrease after 2016 as a result of the completion of the construction of the Palmillas toll highway. From 2018 to 2020 revenue from concessions is projected to come exclusively from the operation of the concessions and it is expected to grow at a 4.9% 3-year CAGR during Gross Margin EBITDA Gross margin is projected to be 27.7% per year on average. The Concession segment has higher margins which brings up the overall average margins compared to Domestic Construction which has much lower gross margins. Gross margin is projected to increase after 2016 as a result of the completion of the Palmillas highway, since the margin of construction is significantly lower than the margin of a toll road concession in operations. The Concessions segment is expected to increase its margin mostly as result of the projected price increase of the ANESA toll and the projected growth of ANESA and Palmillas traffic. Palmillas is projected to start operations in late Projected EBITDA can be broken down by segment as follows: EBITDA by Business Segment Construction (24.1) 46.8 Concessions 2, , , , ,436.7 Corporate (1,224.9) (513.2) (536.8) (560.9) (587.3) Total 1, , , , ,896.2 For the projected period, for the most part, EBITDA is expected to grow in line with revenue and gross margin. EBITDA margin is projected to remain between 21.5% and 26.8% after For 2016, EBITDA margin is projected to be lower than in because it includes the completion of the construction of the Palmillas highway, and more significantly, one time severance payments to right size the business.

4 Other Profit and Losses Projected Items The interest included in the income statement relates to the accrued interest related to the entities whose operations are consolidated. These include the interest of the Construction, Concessions and the International segments. Note that for the most part the business plan does not accrue interest on the Corporate debt. For the projected period, the Company is expected to have a total foreign exchange loss mostly related the increase in US denominated debt balance as result of the projected devaluation of the Mexican Peso against the USD. Projected dividends include dividends from a partly owned water treatment plant and partly owned Construction company, various projects in Latin America, ICA s 51% interest in OVT Concessions, minority interests in other Concessions and OMA. Other income relates mostly to management fees from partially owned subsidiaries.

5 High Level Summary of ICA s Statements of Cash Flows Presented below is ICA s projected cash flows from 2016 to 2020 in MXN million: Proj Statement of Cash Flows Total EBITDA 1, , , , , ,197.4 Change in Working Capital Change in Accounts Receivable 2, , (548.3) 4,620.0 Change in Client Advances (1,791.1) (638.6) (263.2) (207.9) (2,323.5) Change in Accounts Payable (3,431.8) (3,184.7) (1,938.7) (1,247.7) (9,610.0) Monthly IVA Received / (Paid) (4.0) 8.7 (1.3) 8.8 Other Total Change in Working Capital (3,044.5) (1,203.8) (2,078.4) (1,198.7) (7,304.7) Other Cash From Operations (1,625.6) (1,120.7) (944.1) (1,152.9) (1,076.3) (5,919.7) Total Cash Flow From Operations (3,516.3) (275.3) ,040.5 (1,027.0) Cash Flow From Investments (1,867.2) Cash Flow From Financing (2,542.1) (2,598.1) (2,914.3) (3,215.3) (10,639.3) Attributable Minority Interest 97.3 (49.1) Change in Cash (4,655.6) (1,603.7) (2,365.5) (1,993.4) (434.5) (11,052.6) Cash Flow Summary Beginning Cash Balance 2,025.3 (2,630.3) (4,234.0) (6,599.5) (8,592.9) 2,025.3 Change in Cash (4,655.6) (1,603.7) (2,365.5) (1,993.4) (434.5) (11,052.6) Ending Cash Balance (2,630.3) (4,234.0) (6,599.5) (8,592.9) (9,027.3) (9,027.3) The change in accounts receivable is largely driven by the collection of overdue receivables and then collecting going forward in a normalized time frame. Client advances is mainly the amortization of the advances during 2016 and The change in accounts payable is the amortization of the outstanding payables. Most of the nonproject payables are amortized straight line over 3 years starting July 1, Other Cash From Operations primarily includes cash taxes (in excess of MXN 5.1 billion during the projected period), and one-time cash outflows including restructuring fees. Cash Flow from Investments mainly relates to distributions / management fees from subsidiaries, assets that have already been sold, offset by capital expenditures on the Palmillas Concessions project in Cash Flow from Financing primarily includes debt service and new financing in the Concession segment, and to a lesser extent the Construction segment. The Company s business plan excludes debt service on Corporate debt and international project debt that is to be sold or is unsecured.