Merrill Lynch conference Living in a 1% world 8 October Richard Harvey. Group Chief Executive

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1 Merrill Lynch conference Living in a 1% world 8 October 2003 Richard Harvey Group Chief Executive

2 Disclaimer This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements with respect to certain of Aviva s plans and its current goals and expectations relating to its future financial condition, performance and results. By their nature, all forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to future events and circumstances which are beyond Aviva s control including among other things, UK domestic and global economic business conditions, market related risks such as fluctuations in interest rates and exchange rates, the policies and actions of regulatory authorities, the impact of competition, inflation, deflation, the timing impact and other uncertainties of future acquisitions or combinations within relevant industries, as well as the impact of tax and other legislation and other regulations in the jurisdictions in which Aviva and its affiliates operate. As a result, Aviva s actual future financial condition, performance and results may differ materially from the plans, goals and expectations set forth in Aviva s forward-looking statements. Aviva undertakes no obligation to update the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation or any other forward-looking statements we may make. 2

3 Aviva in a 1% world Long-term savings: Investing for higher growth and margin Low unit costs key to new business margins General insurance: Invest for superior claims performance Cost reduction Allocate capital to higher growth and margin businesses 3

4 Investing in high growth opportunities UK: bancassurance JV with RBOS Netherlands: bancassurance JV with ABN AMRO France: bancassurance from 2004 Spain: created leading life business Italy: created top 6 life business Entered Lithuania life from Poland India: bancassurance and DSF from 2002 China: JV life business from 2003 Singapore & HK: bancassurance with DBS 4

5 Aviva bancassurance in H (25% of total life & pensions sales) Early phase of development (most deals post 2000) But expertise back to 1989 with UniCredito Margins 35.5%. vs group average of 24.5% m 450 Aviva bancassurance life & pension sales FY APE 300 FY HY +56% vs HY HY FY HY H

6 Leading cost positions in Italy & Spain One factory leads to scaleable cost advantages Italy Expense as % premiums, 2001 % 5 % 5 Spain Expenses as % of premiums, H Consolidated Aviva life companies Top 15 Italian life companies 0 Aviva (Aseval) Total Spanish life market 6 Source: ANIA Source: ICEA, data regarding H102

7 Aviva in Eastern Europe Asia on our doorstep Poland Population: 39m Life = 1.07% of GDP m greenfield investment In 2002: No 1 private Pensions (29% of market) 18% of total life market 40% of individual life Over 3m customers Lithuania Population: 4m Life = 0.30% of GDP Launched % market share, No. 4 Romania Population: 22m Life = 0.18% of GDP Launched 2000, top 5 Czech Republic Population: 10m Life = 1.31% of GDP Launched 1997 Hungary Population: 10m Life = 1.16% of GDP Acquisition of Top-6 life assurer 2001 Turkey Population: 65m Life = 0.25% of GDP Life launch % market share, No.1 7

8 India & China growth opportunities India JV partnership (26%) with Dabur Group from June 2002 Distribution agreements provide access to over 25 million potential customers: China Canara Bank (ranked 2nd with 2,400 branches) Lakshmi Vilas Bank (regional bank, 209 branches) ABN AMRO American Express Aviva-COFCO Life Insurance launched 1 Jan 2003 Initially operating in Guangzhou 8

9 UK life: Norwich Union is the market leader Market share % 11.8% H Capital advantage including orphan estate estimated at 4.5bn ( ) Market leading product range Multi-distribution expertise in place Pricing increases Management actions to reduce expenses 9

10 Future of UK life with-profits Smoothed investment philosophy remains attractive With-profits has outperformed equity-linked! Sandler supports concept Consolidation around few providers with strong estates 40 out of 62 WP funds closed in last 2 years 10

11 Where 1% charge in the UK is profitable 1% charge can work where case premiums are large and persistency is high Cat standard ISAs (max charge 1%) unsuccessful Similar to Sandler proposed products Larger end of 1% pensions market is profitable Includes Group schemes (fee basis) Aviva structures its commission rates to avoid unprofitable segments 11

12 UK life price cap decides reachable market Breakeven case size by distribution channel* APE Reduction in yield 1% % Bank Worksite enrollers IFAs Direct sales force * Individual cases 12 Source:Oliver Wyman research using regular premium contracts

13 General insurance: Strong statutory earnings support longer-term life growth % of total* GI premiums Combined operating ratios 6months UK 99% 101% France 100% 100% Ireland 97% 100% Neths 98% 102% Canada 115%** 103% (** Pilot added 13pp) Group * 101% 101% Group 99% (excl Pilot) *Continuing operations 13

14 Pricing environment Orderly pricing market Discipline Never been so little capital in general insurance market at this point of the pricing cycle Lower inv return from bonds vs equities Credit rating agencies Balance sheet disciplines 14

15 Expense ratio benefiting from merger savings and ongoing efficiency reviews % 13 Aviva general insurance expense ratio* *Continuing operations 12m m m m

16 Leveraging cost advantage out of Aviva s growing expertise in India Call centre / claims processes supports UK general insurance capacity and efficiency Live from July 2003 (1,000 jobs by end 2003) Consider other applications Virtual call centre/claims processes 1,000 employees end

17 Investing in superior claims performance Expense ratio Commissions UK Re-underwritten portfolios Claims costs Total incident management India claims processing Pay As You Drive pilot Digital flood mapping 17

18 Digital flood mapping Aeroplane digitally mapped height of UK + Add data on river water flows and soil moisture = Captured flood risk data on every house 18

19 Shrewsbury: Upper Severn Catchment SH 1 in 100 year flood outline 19 Avi va plc

20 SY3 7 (postcode) Previously, all properties thought to flood 20

21 SY3 7 (postcode) Properties that don t flood Properties that flood Only 28% of properties in this postcode flood 21

22 Flood mapping benefits Underwrite more accurately than competitors Avoid vulnerable properties Estimated saving of 80m (of 195m) from UK floods in 2000 Reduce earnings volatility Underwriting data advantage across all of book 22

23 Aviva cost saving initiatives in first half 2003 Estimated P&L net benefit of 60m for 2003 after cost to achieve saves and incremental investment spend on GFTP and offshoring includes cost of UK job reduction of 1,600 announced to July 2003 Estimated full year 2004 P&L gross benefit of 175m will be offset by inflation and 40m incremental GFTP spend 23

24 Aviva summary Geographical choice for capital allocation Scale advantages Reducing costs Gaining market share in profitable life markets Targeting consistent across cycle earnings from general insurance ROCE 11% for 6m 2003 (9.7% 12m 2002) 24

25 Appendix 25

26 Aviva overview 6 months 2003 premiums / sales* ( 15.7bn) Leading pan-european life insurer 72% 73% Life** 27% G.I. Focused general insurance business (personal & SME commercial) Cont. Europe Life 34%** UK Life 35%** Intl. Life 4%** UK General 16% Cont Europe General 6% Intl. General 5% * Net written premiums from continuing operations. ** Life includes retail investment sales and health. 26

27 Valuable business franchises from strong market positions Rank Life Market share Life (est.) Rank GI Market share GI (est.) UK 1 12% 1 14% France 10 4% Top % Netherlands 4 10%* 3 9%* Spain 1 12% - - Italy 6 5% n/a <1% Ireland 4 11% 1 24% Canada % Poland 2 18% - - Singapore 3 11% 2 9% Turkey 1 15% - - Australia Top 10 4% - - * 2001 pro forma ABN AMRO Joint Venture 27

28 Capital: resilient position Enhanced by sub-debt issue of 1.6bn Sept 2003 Self financing model strong statutory profits from general insurance 2002 dividend cut Resilient CGUII structure (holds major overseas subs) can withstand significant equity market falls Strong UK life with-profit realistic capital orphan estate 4.5bn (after > 4bn for guarantees, glidepath etc ) manage bonuses / MVAs / asset mix (36% equities) 28

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