Preqin Special Report: Private Debt Fund Manager Outlook

Transcription

1 Content Includes: Preqin Special Report: Private Debt Fund Manager Competition Over half of fund managers believe there is now more competition in the industry compared to 12 months ago. August 2015 Deal Flow Nearly two-thirds of fund managers plan to deploy more capital in the next 12 months than in the previous 12 months. Investor Appetite Investor appetite for private debt has increased significantly. Key Challenges Deal flow, performance and regulation cited as key challenges for fund managers in the year ahead. Private debt fund managers are largely optimistic about the future of the asset class. alternative assets. intelligent data.

2 Preqin Special Report: Private Debt Fund Manager Download the data pack: Foreword Strong private debt fundraising continues to bring attention to the asset class from all areas of the investment community. As of the end of July 2015, an aggregate $46bn has been raised by funds closed during the year across the entire private debt segment, which is on track to surpass the 2014 total of $69bn. Senior loan structures, seen as an alternative to fi xed income on the lower end of the private debt risk spectrum, have seen a fundraising boom in recent years, having raised more than $32bn in 2014 and over $16bn so far in In contrast, distressed debt fundraising has seen steady fundraising totals, as the strategy has long stood as a countercyclical component for alternatives investors. More fund managers than ever before are entering into the alternative lending space, as the perceived opportunity in the wake of imposed banking regulation globally has caused a fundamental shift in middle market fi nancing. Regulations across the banking and alternative fund management industry have transformed the industry for investors, managers and service providers that once operated with less oversight. The overall market growth and subsequent regulatory mandates have mostly occurred on a strong economic backdrop further supported by various governmental interventions, but at this point, both investors and fund managers are keen to think ahead and prepare for a directional change and how it will affect credit strategies. Based on the results of a survey with over 100 private debt fund managers worldwide, Preqin Special Report: Private Debt Fund Manager provides insight into fund managers current views on the market, their future investment activity and long-term outlook on the asset class. Contents Competition and Deal Flow 3 Investor Appetite 4 Challenges and Regulation 5 for the Industry 6 Private Debt Online Preqin s Private Debt Online is the leading source of data and intelligence on the growing private debt industry. This comprehensive resource tracks all aspects of the asset class, including fund managers, fund performance, fundraising, institutional investors and more. Constantly updated by our team of dedicated researchers, Private Debt Online represents the most complete source of industry intelligence available today, with global coverage and all fund managers and investors profiled. For more information, please visit: All rights reserved. The entire contents of Preqin Special Report: Private Debt Fund Manager, August 2015 are the Copyright of Preqin Ltd. No part of this publication or any information contained in it may be copied, transmitted by any electronic means, or stored in any electronic or other data storage medium, or printed or published in any document, report or publication, without the express prior written approval of Preqin Ltd. The information presented in Preqin Special Report: Private Debt Fund Manager, August 2015 is for information purposes only and does not constitute and should not be construed as a solicitation or other offer, or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction, or as advice of any nature whatsoever. If the reader seeks advice rather than information then he should seek an independent fi nancial advisor and hereby agrees that he will not hold Preqin Ltd. responsible in law or equity for any decisions of whatever nature the reader makes or refrains from making following its use of Preqin Special Report: Private Debt Fund Manager, August While reasonable efforts have been made to obtain information from sources that are believed to be accurate, and to confirm the accuracy of such information wherever possible, Preqin Ltd. does not make any representation or warranty that the information or opinions contained in Preqin Special Report: Private Debt Fund Manager, August 2015 are accurate, reliable, up-to-date or complete. Although every reasonable effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this publication Preqin Ltd. does not accept any responsibility for any errors or omissions within Preqin Special Report: Private Debt Fund Manager, August 2015 or for any expense or other loss alleged to have arisen in any way with a reader s use of this publication Preqin Ltd. /

3 Download the data pack: Preqin Special Report: Private Debt Fund Manager Competition and Deal Flow Increased competition in the private debt space both for deals and for securing investor capital is a recurring challenge for credit managers looking to capitalize on opportunities in the market. With more fund managers operating in the direct lending segment than ever before, a return of any substance by banks into the lending space takes with it a share of the deal fl ow in the senior debt space. According to Preqin s Private Debt Online, the current level of dry powder held by private debt managers is $185bn (Fig. 1), the highest fi gure ever recorded for the asset class. With such large amounts of capital in reserve, managers are facing mounting pressure to get deals in the pipeline and put this capital to work. Fig. 2 shows that over half (5) of private debt fund managers feel there is more competition for private debt transactions than 12 months ago, which is perhaps unsurprising given the current crowded alternative lending environment. A third of fund managers are now fi nding it more diffi cult to source attractive investment opportunities than they were a year ago (Fig. 3). Furthermore, two-thirds of fund managers are now reviewing more investment opportunities in the hunt for suitable investments. Despite increased competition and the challenges of fi nding the best opportunities, fund managers are largely optimistic about the asset class in the second half of 2015 and beyond. A signifi cant 66% of fund managers plan to deploy more capital in the next 12 months than in the past year, with 46% expecting this to be signifi cantly more (Fig. 4). Fig. 1: Private Debt Dry Powder, December July 2015 Fig. 2: Fund Managers Views on the Level of Competition for Private Debt Transactions Compared to 12 Months Ago % 3% Dry Powder ($bn) % 5 More Competition Same Level of Competition Less Competition Unsure 20 0 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Jul-15 Source: Preqin Private Debt Online Fig. 3: Fund Managers Views on the Level of Difficulty in Finding Attractive Investment Opportunities Compared to 12 Months Ago Fig. 4: Amount of Capital Fund Managers Plan to Deploy over the Next 12 Months Compared to the Past 12 Months 9% 0% 3% 32% Significantly More Difficult More Difficult Same Easier 27% 46% Significantly More Capital Slightly More Capital Same Amount of Capital Significantly Easier Slightly Less Capital 5 Unsure Significantly Less Capital 2015 Preqin Ltd. / 3

4 Preqin Special Report: Private Debt Fund Manager Download the data pack: Investor Appetite There are currently 221 private debt funds in market seeking an aggregate $126bn; if these funds are able to reach a successful close, large sums of capital will be injected into the marketplace. As the industry has grown and matured in recent years, appetite for private debt has increased, with investors seeing the benefits of allocating to the asset class. Almost three-quarters (73%) of fund managers believe that investor appetite for private debt has increased over the past 12 months, which is positive for the outlook of the asset class (Fig. 5). The largest proportion of fund managers (39%) are seeing the most appetite for the asset class from public pension funds, followed by family offi ces, which were noted by 2 of fund managers as demonstrating the largest appetite for private debt at present (Fig. 6). Over the coming year, fund managers will primarily be seeking capital from investors based in North America (66%) and Europe (63%) (Fig. 7). This can be attributed to alternative lending being Fig. 5: Fund Managers Views on How Institutional Investor Appetite for Private Debt Has Changed over the Last 12 Months much more established within highly developed credit markets and the fact that the majority of investors in private debt are based in these two regions; however, as the asset class grows and matures, investors from further afi eld have the potential to become more prominent allocators for fund managers. While the majority of investors invest in private debt through the traditional commingled fund structure, co-investments and separate accounts are also important ways for investors to access the asset class, as they can offer investors a variety of benefi ts such as greater control over investments and lower fees. Thirty-nine percent of private debt fund managers expect to offer more co-investment opportunities in the year ahead, while 34% expect to offer investors more separate accounts (Fig. 8). While there may not be huge growth in the prominence of alternative structures in the coming year, over the longer term, as investors become increasingly confi dent and sophisticated, alternative methods of accessing the asset class are likely to be utilized more. Fig. 6: Fund Managers Views on Which Investor Types Are Showing the Most Appetite for Private Debt at Present 18% Significant Increase in 0% Investor Appetite 29% 44% Slight Increase in Investor Appetite No Change in Investor Appetite Slight Decrease in Investor Appetite Significant Decrease in Investor Appetite Unsure 14% 16% 2% 2% Public Pension Funds Family Offices 2 39% Insurance Companies Private Sector Pension Funds Endowment Plans Foundations Sovereign Wealth Funds Retail Investors Other Fig. 7: Regions Fund Managers Plan to Seek Capital from in the Next 12 Months Fig. 8: Fund Managers Plans to Offer Alternative Structures to Investors in the Next 12 Months Proportion of Respondents 70% 60% 50% 30% 0% 19% Asia Australasia 63% Europe 3% Latin America MENA 66% North America Sub-Saharan Africa Proportion of Respondents 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 30% 0% 39% 47% Co-Investment Opportunities 34% 38% 4% 2 Separate Accounts Plan to Offer More Plan to Offer the Same Amount Plan to Offer Fewer Unsure Preqin Ltd. /

5 Download the data pack: Preqin Special Report: Private Debt Fund Manager Challenges and Regulation Challenges for the Industry Private debt fund managers have seen a number of challenges over the last few years, from the after effects of the credit crisis to increased public scrutiny, and more recently, increased regulation of the industry. Over the coming year, deal flow and performance are the biggest challenges fund managers expect to face, cited by 43% and of respondents respectively (Fig. 9). As dry powder levels continue to climb, fund managers face increased pressure to put this to work and deliver returns for investors. Fundraising was cited by 22% of respondents as a key challenge they face in the year ahead, and with so many funds on the road seeking capital, fund managers must ensure they effectively differentiate themselves from their peers. Thirty-seven percent of fund managers feel that transparency is the best way to differentiate themselves (Fig. 10). With investors ever more discerning and expecting not only more frequent, but also more detailed reporting and fund managers that can adhere to this stand in good stead to secure more capital commitments. Ten percent of respondents believe a larger GP commitment is the best way to differentiate themselves from their peers; by committing more of their own capital to a fund, fund managers show commitment and this helps to better align fund manager and investor interests. Regulation The alternative assets industry has become increasingly regulated in recent years and 30% of fund managers view regulation as a key challenge they face in the year ahead. Fig. 9: Biggest Challenges Faced by Fund Managers at Present Proportion of Respondents % 2 1 0% 6% 6% 7% 43% Deal Flow 2% Performance 30% 30% Regulation Volatility and Uncertainty 22% 22% Fig. 10: Fund Managers Views on the Most Important Way to Differentiate Themselves Fundraising 37% Valuations 2 Fee Pressure Transparency Larger GP Commitment Providing Greater Liquidity to LPs Past Performance Lower Fees Strategy 18% Fulfilling Investor Demands Other The Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (AIFMD), which is one of the most prominent regulations introduced over the last few years, does not appear to have had a large impact on private debt fund managers. Over three-quarters (77%) of private debt fund managers have not altered their fund structuring or approach to investments as a result of the regulation. 8% Offer Non-Discretionary Mandates Increased Outsourcing of Services Other However, there is the potential for regulation to affect the operations of fund managers in the future. Twenty-seven percent of fund managers have outsourced services as a result of regulation and a further 44% expect regulation may lead them to outsource services in the future. This demonstrates that private debt fund managers are still largely unsure about the long-term impact of the AIFMD and other regulations, but notable numbers may consider seeking the service of third parties in the future. A significant 60% of fund managers stated that cost would lead them to an outsourcing arrangement, followed by regulation (36%). Expertise of staff would be a leading reason to outsource for 29% of fund managers (Fig. 11). It is unclear at the moment if more or less regulatory involvement will be required in the alternatives industry, as the aims of recently imposed directives to increase transparency and accountability on all sides have yet to be tested by turbulence in the credit space Preqin Ltd. / Fig. 11: Reasons that Would Lead Fund Managers to Outsource Services Proportion of Respondents 70% 60% 50% 30% 0% 60% Cost 36% Regulation 29% Expertise of Staff 24% Growth 2 2 Cost of Technology Pressure from Investors Knowledge of Asset Class Other 5

6 Preqin Special Report: Private Debt Fund Manager Download the data pack: for the Industry Fund managers are largely optimistic about the future prospects of the industry; a signifi cant 64% of fund managers believe growth will continue over the next fi ve years and expect the assets under management of the private debt industry will be 50% higher than they are today (Fig. 12). Private debt has carved a solid place within institutional portfolios, as the variety of fund types and risk/return profi les increasingly appeal to investors. Providing that investor appetite continues to grow and regulation does not hinder fund managers abilities to operate in the sector, this outcome seems likely. Furthermore, while many fund managers have seen an increase in competition recently, this is unlikely to cause firms to exit the industry; just 17% of fund managers expect there will be signifi cantly fewer fund managers operating in the industry in 2020 (Fig. 13). With traditional lenders retreating from the industry, it seems there are more opportunities than ever before for fund managers active within private debt. Fig. 12: Fund Managers Views on Whether the Assets under Management of the Private Debt Industry Will Be 50% Higher in 2020 than at Present Fig. 13: Fund Managers Views on Whether There Will Be Significantly Fewer Firms in the Private Debt Industry in 2020 than at Present 24% Strongly Agree Agree Neutral 9% 12% Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Disagree 5 Strongly Disagree 34% Strongly Disagree Private Debt Online Preqin s Private Debt Online contains detailed information on all aspects of the private debt industry worldwide, including: Detailed profi les of over 750 fund managers globally, including background, key contacts, fundraising and closed fund information. Information on over 1,600 private debt funds across all strategies, including mezzanine, distressed debt, direct lending and more. Fund profi les include granular data on fund focus, timeline, debt strategies, sponsors, service providers and much more. Key performance metrics for over 650 individual funds which can be benchmarked against their peers. Detailed profi les of over 1,500 institutional investors actively or considering investing in private debt funds, including future plans, allocation information, past investments, contact details and more. For more information, please visit: Preqin Ltd. /

7 alternative ativ assets. sets intelligent igen ent data. Source new investors for funds Identify new investment opportunities Conduct competitor and market analysis Track firms with capital available to invest Develop new business Register for demo access to find out how Preqin s Private Debt Online can help your business: alternative assets. intelligent data.

8 Preqin Special Report: Private Debt Fund Manager August 2015 Preqin Private Debt Online With global coverage and detailed information on all aspects of the private debt asset class, Preqin s industry-leading Private Debt Online service keeps you up-to-date on all the latest developments in the private debt universe. Source new investors for funds Find the most relevant investors, with access to detailed profi les for over 1,700 institutional investors actively investing in private debt, including information on their current fund searches and mandates, direct contact information and sample investments. Identify potential investment opportunities View in-depth profi les for over 1,600 unlisted private debt funds, including information on investment strategy, geographic focus, fundraising progress, service providers used and sample investors. Find active fund managers in private debt Search for fi rms actively targeting private debt investments. View information on key contacts, fi rm fundraising and performance history, and applied strategies of the fi rm. Analyze the latest private debt fundraising activity See which fi rms are currently on the road raising a private debt fund and which will be coming to market soon. Analyze fundraising over time by fund type, manager location and regional focus, and conduct competitor analysis. Benchmark performance Identify which fund managers have the best track records, with performance benchmarks for private debt funds and performance details for over 650 individual named funds. View detailed profiles of service providers Search for administrators, placement agents and law fi rms active in the private debt industry by type and location of funds, and the managers they work with. Find out how Preqin s private debt products and services can help you: If you want any further information, or would like a demo of our products, please contact us: New York: One Grand Central Place 60 E 42nd Street Suite 630 New York NY Tel: Fax: London: 3rd Floor Vintners Place 68 Upper Thames Street London EC4V 3BJ Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Singapore: One Finlayson Green #11-02 Singapore Tel: Fax: San Francisco: 1700 Montgomery Street Suite 134 San Francisco CA Tel: Fax: info@preqin.com Web: