SATELLITE VULNERABILITY TO SPACE DEBRIS RISK

Transcription

1 SIXTH IASS CONFERENCE Montreal May 2013 Denis Bensoussan Senior Underwriter Space Risks SATELLITE VULNERABILITY TO SPACE DEBRIS RISK

2 Space debris risks assessment Satellites potential casualty of Earth orbits rapidly altering environment Danger zone myth or reality: to which extent are satellites vulnerable? Satellite vulnerability to space debris assessed through 2 factors: Impact probabilities for satellites Assessment of damage caused by impact from space debris Revus Project: Reducing the vulnerability of space systems The ReVuS consortium selected in the framework of European Commission FP7 programme is led by Astrium SAS with 8 adtional partners: EMI Fraunhofer - Technische Universitaet of Braunschweig - University of Southampton - University of Leicester - Astrium GmbH - PHS Space Ltd. - Tencate Advanced Composites - Hiscox - Astri Polska

3 Reported impacts 9 major impacts on LEO satellites since 1991, 4 involving active satellites All events unavoidable No reported events in GEO, but recent increase in conjunction alerts

4 Big sky theory versus probabilities: GEO Randomly flying objects will likely never collide as the three dimensional space is so large relative to the objects Assumed probability of collision still very low despite new debris created by recent collisions Average current risk of collision at GEO is 1 every 135 years Involving active satellite: 1 every 155 years Study presented by Ailor, W.H. and Peterson, G.E. at 55th International Astronautical Congress Vancouver, Oct based on >400 satellites (within 300 km of GEO altitude) plus all objects passing through

5 Big sky theory versus probabilities: LEO Probability that any given satellite at km will be hit by debris Larger than 1 cm approaching 3% over 5 to 10 year lifetime (est. NASA) Revus study: modelling and simulation tests analysis on 2 spacecrafts orbiting at km: < 1mm = 27 impacts/m2/year < 10mm = up to 0.1 impacts/m2/year < 50mm = up to impacts/m2/year Probabilities of impact/damage remain very low for dangerous debris Failure risk due to debris impact remains a substantially lower probability than risks of launcher or satellite mechanical failure 5

6 LDEF Statistics VS reality mission EURECA During its 8 years in space, LDEF was impacted millions of times. Some of the impacts were made by very tiny particles and by other impacts visible to the naked eye LDEF revealed that microparticle levels were higher than previously believed Atlantis released Eureca on 31 July 1992 at a 508 km orbit. Retrieved after 326 days of space exposure 71 impacts on outer layer of thermal blankets on the spacecraft body More than 1000 impacts on each solar arrays Impacts range from 100 microns to several mm Largest crater diameter on solar arrays was 6.4 mm Largest impact on the main body was 2 mm Impact damage to Eureca caused no system or subsystem failures

7 Impacts Mir Docking Module Kvant-2 Solar Panel

8 Value at risk: a high stakes game Insured telecom satellites: more than 18bn$ in GEO orbit 1.8b$ in LEO orbit: observation satellites and constellations Average value is 200m$ in millions GEO 8

9 Vulnerability analysis

10 Damage investigation Revus study: Vulnerability of Spacecraft Equipment to Hypervelocity Impacts of Space Debris Fraunhofer EMI (prime), OHB-System, QinetiQ Comprehensive test investigation of the vulnerability of satellite equipment to HVI Determine equipment failure modes Total of ~100 impact experiments Largest study on satellite equipment vulnerability ever conducted Investigated equipment fuel / heat pipes pressure vessels electronics boxes harnesses batteries Equipment placement representative of typical satellite structures Equipment under operation

11 Fuel pipes

12 Pressure vessels Movie

13 Harnesses

14 Electronic boxes Movie

15 Solar arrays & Batteries

16 Satellite collision tests Movie

17 Vulnerability analysis results Radar satellite (515 km) Illustration of probability of failure of reference satellites as function of the diameter of debris particles Debris particles of size in the range 2-4 mm appear as the highest contributor to the probability of failure of the satellite Probability of failure Probability of failure Optical satellite (820 km) Probability of failure Probability of failure Range of particle diameter (mm) Range of particle diameter (mm) /04/2013 Range of particle diameter (mm) Range of particle diameter (mm)

18 Tests results Debris size and impact location do matter Source: NASA 18

19 Conclusions and solutions (1) Orbit, debris density and satellite cross-section conditioning occurrence frequency probability Impact location, size and speed of debris key factors Satellite design and operations robustness to be revisited for sake of prevention/mitigation System level solutions Architecture level solutions, dealing with the satellite architecture (equipment relocation, external redundancy, ) Shielding concepts, as part of architecture level solutions 19

20 Conclusions and solutions (2) ReVuS project is defining and assessing different solutions to reduce the vulnerability of LEO satellites to small debris Solutions at system and satellite architecture levels will take into account debris size up to 5cm Shielding of equipment will protect the most critical equipment against particles in the range 3-4mm that induces the highest probability of failure Innovative shielding concepts using new materials have been defined and will be tested ReVuS project will allow the elaboration of new design rules to increase robustness of European satellites in the growing population of small debris 20

21 Insurance and space debris (1) Insurance perspectives (1) Risk of collision not a severe worry for insurers until recently No exclusion in insurance policies for damages caused by space debris, as the risk of collision is considered small compared with other threats such as technical malfunction or launch vehicle failure PD insurance covers all kind of potential satellites failures, including debris impacts TPL insurance available for damage to third parties arising from operations of launchers and satellites in-orbit Never tested for space collision (only tested for property damage on the ground) Definition/interpretation of occurrence and duration of cover uncertain Few satellites covered, insurance generally not mandatory Insured diligent behaviour? Action or inaction? Best efforts or obligation to achieve? Current situation favorable to all parties but likely time-limited as occurrences will happen and space debris risks may become uninsurable or only under drastic coverage restrictions and rate increase Risk to make insurance unavailable or uneconomic unless mitigation solutions are implemented

22 Insurance perspectives (2) The Iridium collision dramatically revealed a worrying situation Current risk assessment and pricing do not monitor/measure this low frequency risk while damages and consequences might be catastrophic Collaboration with industry key to improve assessment and develop preventive/mitigation solutions Insurance contribution to focus on: Risks identification, assessment and valuation of candidate solutions Iteration and improvements process to develop risk-reducing solutions Final evaluation and impact on operator and space insurance market (cost / benefit analysis) Insurance-stress testing of selected solutions 22

23 Thank you

24 Denis Bensoussan is a Senior Underwriter for space risks at Hiscox Lloyd s Syndicate, since Denis has more than 10 years experience in the aerospace industry. He has also obtained extensive experience in legal and risk management through various positions at ESA, the UN and the European Commission. Denis holds a degree in Law and two post-graduate degrees (LLM) in International Law from Paris XI University and in Air & Space Law from McGill University (Montreal, Canada). Denis is the author of a Master Thesis published in 2003 by McGill Institute of Air and Space Law on Satellite Navigation legal/liability aspects, is a member of the European Centre for Space Law and of the International Academy of Astronautics and regularly writes articles and gives speeches on Space legal, risk management and insurance affairs. Denis Bensoussan Office : Deputy Line Underwriter Space Mobile : denis.bensoussan@hiscox.com HISCOX 19 Rue Louis le Grand PARIS - France

25 Hiscox Introduction Hiscox, the international specialist insurer, is headquartered in Bermuda and listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE:HSX). There are three main underwriting parts of the Group - Hiscox London Market, Hiscox UK and Europe and Hiscox International. Hiscox London Market underwrites internationally traded business in the London Market - generally large or complex business which needs to be shared with other insurers or needs the international licences of Lloyd's. Hiscox UK and Hiscox Europe offer a range of specialist insurance for professionals and business customers, as well as high net worth individuals. Hiscox International includes operations in Bermuda, Guernsey and USA. Hiscox Insurance Company Limited, Hiscox Underwriting Limited, Hiscox Europe Underwriting Limited and Hiscox Syndicates Limited are authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Through its Aviation and Space Division, Hiscox London Market offers launch, in orbit and third party liability insurance. We insure satellite operators, manufacturers and users; launch vehicle providers; TV broadcasting companies; telecommunications operators; and bankers or financiers of aerospace projects. For further information, visit