A panorama of Brazil The country and the real estate market

Transcription

1 A panorama of Brazil The country and the real estate market Politic, economic and real estate development By Flavio Amary, Secovi-SP incoming president Real estate market opportunities By Joaquim Ribeiro, Fenaci president Miami, San Diego, November 2015

2 Why do real estate business in Brazil? Area 8.5 millions sq km Population 202 millions, 84% urban (2014) Democracy with stable institutions Independent and respected Judiciary Mild climate with almost no natural risks Foreign capital is welcome Most Fortune 500 s largest companies are in Brazil

3 3 Why do real estate business in Brazil? Strong domestic market Reazonable prices Richness of natural assets Clean and abundant renewable energy One of the biggest global producers of agricultural and mineral commodities

4 4 Inflation rates 2477 % 916 % REAL economic plan 22% 10% 5% 2% 9% 6% 8% 13% 9% 8% 5% 3% 4% 6% 4% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 10% * * estimativa Source: IBGE

5 5 Foreign Direct Investment US$ billion * * 2015 until September Source: Brazilian Central Bank

6 Gini Coefficient A low Gini coefficient indicates more equal income or wealth distribution, while a high Gini coefficient indicates more unequal distribution Worse Better 0.5 Source: Brazilian Central Bank / IBGE

7 7 Brazil GDP Annual Change US$ 2,3 trillion in 2014, 7th largest world economy 7.6% 0.3% 4.4% 1.3% 3.1% 1.2% 5.7% 3.1% 4.0% 6.0% 5.0% - 0.2% 3.9% 1.8% 2.7% 0.1% FHC (2nd Mandate) Lula (1st Mandate) Lula (2nd Mandate) Dilma (1st Mandate) Média Average anual de annual crescimento growth 2,25% 3,5% 4,6% 2,13% Source: BACEN

8 8 Exchange rate Commercial Dollar R$ 3.53 R$ 3.86 R$ 2.32 R$ 1.96 R$ 2.89 R$ 2.65 R$ 2.71 R$ 2.34 R$ 2.34 R$ 2.35 R$ 2.14 R$ 1.77 R$ 1.88 R$ 2.04 R$ 1.74 R$ 1.67

9 9 Average Unemployment Rate 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 11.5% 4.8% 6.70% Unemployment Taxa de Desemprego rate Source: IBGE

10 10 Population by age group Age group Brazilians are buying their own home at an earlier age, especially those under 35, who make up the majority of the population. Source: IBGE / Produced by: Abecip

11 Occupation condition of Permanent Private Households In % Em In 2013, eram were 65,1 milhões millions de households domicílios Próprio Own Já Settled Quitado Em In acquisition Aquisição Alugado Rented Assigned Cedido Source: IBGE 11

12 12 Demand for New Houses of all Brazilian families (11,7 million) pay rent. Total of families: 65,1 million 1 million marriages in 2012 Market Potential 348,000 divorces in 2012 Housing deficit 5,8 million of homes (2012) More than 10 years Source: IBGE / Produced by: Abecip

13 13 Middle Class Growth Brazil Recentemente was recently o Brasil established foi estabelecido as a middle- class como um country. país de classe média More Mais de than 50% 50% da of população the popularon pertence belongs à classe to média, the middle com class, grande with potencial great potenral de consumo for consumpron Classe A Classe B Classe C Classe DE 6,4 7,0 65,9 96,2 65,9 96,2 10,5 11,2 100,3 69,6 100,3 69, Total: 175 Millions Total: 195 Millions As classes mais ricas (A e B) também obrveram um rápido crescimento The wealthier classes (A and B) also achieved rapid growth Source: IPEA / PNAD (IBGE) Produced by: Ministério da Fazenda

14 New houses US$ launched 2013 per region 13.3 Rio and S. Paulo 51% of total US$ Billion Source: Anuário do Mercado Imobiliário Inteligência de Mercado Lopes

15 15 Average price M² of Private Area June/2015 $1,951 $1,945 Average = $ $1,615 $1,489 $1,481 $1,321 $1,145 $1,066 RM São Paulo Rio de Janeiro RM Fortaleza RM Recife CuriRba Cuiabá Joinville RM Goiânia *Rio de Janeiro = Average price of releases of 2015 first half *Exchange : 1 dollar = R$ 3,86 Source: CBIC/CII Produced by: Secovi-SP Economics and Statistics Department

16 16 Lease Offices AA & A São Paulo City 2015 First Quarter Total inventory = 4,0 million of m² Net Absorption = m² Vacancy rate = 22,5% Price Request = US$ 24/m²/month *Exchange : 1 dollar = R$ 3,86 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle

17 17 Industrial Rental of High Standart Hangars - Brazil 2014 Second Semester New inventory delivered Total inventory = 24,7 million of m² Forecast of new inventory = 12,7 million m² unrl 2017 Vacancy rate= 11,0% Price request= US$ 5,42/m²/month *Exchange : 1 dollar = R$ 3,86 Em 2014 foram entregues aproximadamente 1,9 milhões de m² no Brasil. Para 2015 está prevista a is planned delivery of 6 million square entrega de 6 milhões de m². In 2014 it was delivered approximately 1.9 million square meters in Brazil. For 2015 meters. Source: Jones Lang LaSalle

18 18 Industrial Rental of High Standart Hangars State of São Paulo Total inventory= 14,1 million of m² Vacancy rate= 13,5% Price request= US$ 5,62/m²/month From De a 2017 to 2017 é esperado it is expected que o estado that the receba state em receives torno de 7 about milhões 7 million de m², square concentrados meters principalmente, concentrated nos mainly eixos rodoviários on highways Anhanguera- Bandeirantes, Anhanguera - Bandeirantes Dom Pedro I e, Dom Castelo Pedro Branco. I and Castelo Branco Future stretch Source: Jones Lang LaSalle

19 19 Shoppings Malls - Brazil * Number Número de of Shoppings malls ABL (million (MILHÕES square DE M2) meters) * Until 2015 July Source: ABRASCE

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21 21 Thank you! Flavio Amary incoming president