Education, Training, and Employment Opportunities for the Seattle Area s Workforce

Transcription

1 Transportation & Logistics: Education, Training, and Employment Opportunities for the Seattle Area s Workforce AUTHOR Nicole Jones Senior Policy Analyst Seattle Jobs Initiative CONTRIBUTOR Stephanie Kellner Researcher/Program Developer Port Jobs

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 1 Industry Employment: Past and Present 3 The Great Recession 8 Worker Characteristics 9 The Aging Workforce 9 Race and Ethnicity Demographics 11 Labor Productivity 12 Concentration Of Industry Subsectors 15 Educational Attainment 16 Occupational Trends 17 Middle-Wage Jobs 19 Employment and Wages 19 Educational Attainment and Requirements 21 Education and Training Programs 25 Workforce Supply and Demand 27 Other Program Offerings 28 Employer Perspective 30 Findings From Employer Interviews 30 Identification of Local Employers 31 Conclusion 33 Appendix A 34 Appendix B 34 Appendix C 35 Appendix D 36 Notes 42

3 INTRODUCTION Competing in today s increasingly globalized economy, characterized by the reduction of trade barriers and the spread of new technologies, requires local economies to have well-developed transportation and logistics systems to support the fluid movement of goods and materials. The Seattle metro area and Washington State represent such economies. Seattle is home to a thriving Transportation & Logistics industry that accounts for approximately 25 percent of Washington State s gross domestic product, while 40 percent of all jobs in Washington are either directly or indirectly tied to international trade. 1 Transportation & Logistics has emerged as a primary supplier of employment and output for Washington State s economy due to the two major ports located in Seattle and Tacoma. The Port of Seattle is home to a thriving seaport and airport vital to the economy s international trade, transportation, and travel industries. The seaport is the tenth largest in North America and its cargo activity supports more than 21,000 jobs. 2 Additionally, the airport is the nation s fifteenth busiest (in terms of passengers) and 21st busiest in terms of cargo. 3 The Port of Tacoma is also a key player in the movement of cargo. Port activities account for more than 43,000 jobs in Pierce County, and 113,000 jobs in Washington State. 4 Together, the ports of Seattle and Tacoma add a tremendous amount of economic value to the metropolitan area and Washington State. Transportation & Logistics has long been a sector of focus for Seattle Jobs Initiative (SJI), a workforce development agency focused on providing education and training programs for low-income individuals of Seattle in an effort to bring them out of poverty and into living-wage careers. SJI is continuously 1

4 seeking to identify growing industry sectors which provide participants with opportunities for livingwage jobs. This report seeks to identify those opportunities within the Transportation & Logistics industry sector of the Seattle metropolitan area. Transportation & Logistics is part of a broader Trade, Transportation, & Utilities industry supersector, as classified by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Because of SJI s presence in the automotive and diesel mechanics programs at area community colleges, this report will specifically dissect the Transportation & Logistics industry sector rather than examine the entire Trade, Transportation, & Utilities industry supersector. SJI is not invested in programs leading to careers in the trade sectors (retail and wholesale) because, more often than not, they lead to jobs with high turnover and low pay, such as cashiers and stock clerks. Rather, SJI seeks to understand emerging trends within Transportation & Logistics to better develop programs leading to gainful employment for our participants. This report will analyze the Transportation & Logistics industry s past, present, and future labor market trends in terms of employment, output, and job openings. Additionally, the occupational demand for trade and logistics jobs and their corresponding wages will be analyzed to identify the attainable, living-wage jobs available for low-skill, low-income individuals. The report will further examine education and training programs for in-demand occupations, especially those that are entry-level and/or middle-wage, within the industry. And lastly, employer interviews will provide a qualitative, personal account of employer hiring practices to further assist SJI and other workforce development agencies in the successful implementation of employer engagement strategies. 2

5 CHART 1: Major Industry Employment Seattle MSA, 2013 Trade, Transportation & Utilities Government 326, ,639 CHANGE FROM % -1% Professional Services Health Care & Education Manufacturing Leisure & Hospitality 247, , , ,165 3% 2% 4% 3% Other Services Financial Activities Construction Information Agriculture Mining 99,122 92,203 91,612 89,629 4, % 0% 4% 0% -2% 0% CHANGE FROM 2012 SOURCE: QCEW Employees & Non-QCEW Employees - EMSI Class of Workers INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT: PAST AND PRESENT The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is the standard used by Federal statistical agencies to categorize business establishments in an effort to collect, analyze, and publish statistical data related to the US economy. 5 The hierarchical structure of the NAICS system ranges from very broad to very detailed industry levels. The broad industry supersectors as defined by NAICS is displayed in Chart 1. Of the major industry supersectors in the Seattle metropolitan area, Trade, Transportation, & Utilities stands out as the dominant provider of employment. As indicated in Chart 1, it accounts for over 17 percent (326,968 jobs) in the Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma metropolitan statistical area. And since 2012, employment has grown at a rate of four percent. Government jobs also account for about 17 percent of jobs, but this has decreased slightly (1 percent) since

6 Overall, Trade, Transportation, & Utilities is the largest supplier of jobs in the Seattle metro area* and that trend does not seem to be changing in the foreseeable future. Trade, Transportation, & Utilities is further broken into four industry sectors: Retail Trade 6 Comprised of establishments engaged in retailing merchandise and rendering services incidental to the sale of merchandise. Wholesale Trade 7 Comprised of establishments engaged in wholesaling merchandise and rendering services incidental to the sale of merchandise. This includes the outputs of agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and certain information industries, such as publishing. Transportation & Warehousing 8 Includes industries that provide transportation of passengers and cargo, warehousing and storage for goods, scenic and sightseeing transportation, and support activities related to modes of transportation. These modes of transportation are air, rail, water, road, and pipeline. Utilities 9 Comprised of establishments engaged in the provision of the following utility services: electric power, natural gas, steam supply, water supply, and sewage removal. * For the purposes of this report, Seattle metro area will refer to the Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma metropolitan statistical area. 4

7 As shown in Chart 2, Retail Trade accounts for the majority of employment within the industry - over 50 percent - and that has changed little over the last twenty years. In fact, employment within all three sectors has changed little, if at all, from 1992 to Though the Transportation & Warehousing industry sector accounts for the smallest share of employment, it is arguably the most important. Retail and Wholesale Trade rely on Transportation & Warehousing for efficient movement of goods which in turn allows for the Trade, Transportation, & Utilities industry supersector to be the largest supplier of jobs in the Seattle metro area. Because the Transportation & Warehousing industry sector facilitates trade activity, this report will use the term Transportation & Logistics to refer to this sector of the larger Trade, Transportation, & Utilities supersector. CHART 2: Sector Employment Seattle MSA, ** Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Transportation 200, , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, SOURCE: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics - Complete Employment Statistics The Transportation & Logistics industry sector provides about 3.5 percent (60,000 jobs) of the total jobs in the Seattle metro area as of As shown in Chart 3, on the following page, this share has declined slightly since 1992 (4.5 percent), but has overall remained consistent. The slight decline is a result of employment growth among the entire Seattle metro workforce of more than 30 percent from 1992 to The number of workers employed by the Transportation & Logistics ** Utilities is combined with Transportation due to its small share of employment. 5

8 industry sector has stayed relatively the same, but the sheer volume of employed persons in the workforce has increased. 10 Likewise, the percent of the US workforce employed within this industry has changed little from roughly 3.7 percent of total employment over the twenty-year span. The Transportation & Logistics industry has proven to be a stable source of employment for its workforce and has not been a victim of economic shocks - at least in terms of employment. CHART 3: Transportation Share of Total Employment US Washington Seattle MSA 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% US, 3.7% Seattle MSA, 3.5% Washington, 3.2% 2.5% 2.0% SOURCE: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics - Complete Employment Statistics Within the Transportation & Logistics industry sector, employment growth has been lackluster in the Seattle metro area compared to Washington State and the United States. As shown in Chart 4, on the following page, Washington State and the US have experienced employment growth of 10 and 19 percent, respectively, from , while Seattle MSA employment has grown just three percent over the twenty-year span. Even though employment has not grown at a high rate in Seattle during the last twenty years, it has remained stable (Chart 2). Charts 3 and 4 together highlight Transportation & Logistics steady employment trend, but slight decline in overall share of total employment within the Seattle metro area during the period from 1992 to

9 CHART 4: Transportation & Logistics Change in Employment % 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Seattle MSA Washington US SOURCE: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics - Complete Employment Statistics 7

10 THE GREAT RECESSION While the Trade, Transportation, & Utilities industry supersector is benefiting from positive employment growth as of late, it - along with several other industries - suffered during the Great Recession. Generally, it is agreed upon that the recession began in December of 2007 and ended by June of During the Great Recession, Trade, Transportation, & Utilities declined at a rate of approximately 7 percent. Relative to other industries, the decline in employment was not significant. As shown in Chart 5, the Mining & Logging and Construction industries were hit the hardest with declines in employment of 27 percent and 25 percent, respectively. With the recession s end in 2009, the Trade, Transportation, & Utilities industry supersector of the Seattle metro area has recovered with a roughly 8 percent increase in employment. Only the Manufacturing and Professional Business Services supersectors have experienced that kind of growth following such a significant decline. Not only does the Trade, Transportation, & Utilities industry sector hold the highest concentration of jobs, but it has proven to be a steady force of job growth for the Seattle metro area. The Great Recession and Its Effects on CHART 5: Recession and Post-Recession King County Industry Growth/Decline Recession Recession Post-Recession Post-Recession 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0-5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Mining Construct. Trade, Professional Transport., & Business & Utilities Services Manufacturing Financial Activities Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Govt. Information Education & Health Services SOURCE: Washington State Employment Security Department - Employment Estimates Seattle MSA Opening Doors to Living Wage Careers 2 8

11 WORKER CHARACTERISTICS THE AGING WORKFORCE After World War II, the US experienced a significant spike in the number of infants born. Approximately 77 million babies were born from 1946 to 1964 and these infants became known as the Baby Boomer generation. 12 As the Baby Boomers enter into retirement age, younger workers will need to be hired to fill the void. Chart 6 specifically looks at the share of workers by age employed by the Transportation & Logistics industry sector from 1992 to 2012 in the Seattle metro area. Over the twenty-year span, Transportation & Logistics workers have indeed become older. In 1992, approximately 70 percent of the workforce was under the age of 45 and only 30 percent were 45 or older. By 2012, only 47 percent of the workforce was under the age of 45 while the amount of workers older than 45 increased to 53 percent. CHART 6: Transportation & Logistics Average Employment by Age: Seattle MSA 25, ,000 15,000 10,000 5, SOURCE: Quarterly Workforce Indicators - Employment by Age Even though more and more workers in the industry are approaching retirement age, Chart 7 reveals that employers are not hiring younger employees like they were twenty years ago. In 1992, over 62 percent of all new hires were under the age of 35. As of 2012, workers aged 35 and under comprised 9

12 50 percent of all new hires. The Millennial generation, born between 1978 and 2000, is the largest generation to date in US history with a population of approximately 95 million. 13 Transportation & Logistics employers should focus its efforts on tapping into this supply of young workers to replace the aging workforce currently present within the industry sector. Jobs within manufacturing and transportation industry clusters are often perceived in a negative light by many high school and college graduates. Even more disconcerting are the perceptions of parents and educators who view these jobs as low-paying and labor intensive. 14 To engage Millennials into manufacturing and transportation careers, Deloitte and Touche has created a talent requisition model to meet the expectations of Millennials that will in turn benefit the workforce as a whole. This model consists of three basic strategies: develop, deploy, and connect employees. Employers should first develop employees by providing them with real-life learning experiences to foster long-term career growth. Next, employers should deploy employees to work with individuals to identify their strengths and interests, find their best fit within the organization, and create a desirable job plan that will assist in high performance outcomes. And lastly, employers need to connect employees with the tools and guidance they need to build strong networks. 15 Employing this type of model aligns with the general characteristics and desires of the Millennial generation and will assist in attracting new, young talent into the Transportation & Logistics industry sector. CHART 7: Transportation & Logistics New Hires: Seattle MSA 3, ,500 2,000 1,500 1, SOURCE: Quarterly Workforce Indicators - New Hires by Age 10

13 RACE AND ETHNICITY DEMOGRAPHICS Sixty-six percent of the population as a whole in the Seattle metro area identifies as white. 16 Given that statistic, it is not surprising that the majority of the Transportation & Logistics workforce is comprised of white workers, as shown in Chart 8. In 1992, fully 85 percent of its workforce was white. By 2012, that share dropped by roughly 10 percent; however, white workers still hold the majority of jobs within the industry sector. All other races and ethnicities each make up less than 10 percent of the entire Transportation & Logistics workforce. Though accounting for a small portion of the sector s workforce, Hispanic and Asian workers have doubled over the twenty-year span. CHART 8: Transportation & Logistics Average Employment by Race/Ethnicity Seattle MSA, % 90% % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Asian Black or African American White All Other Hispanic SOURCE: Quarterly Workforce Indicators - Employment by Race/Ethnicity 11

14 LABOR PRODUCTIVITY In trying to better understand the employment trends in local industry sectors, statistics on jobs, openings, projections, unemployment rates, and earnings are common indicators used to quantify whether or not an industry is viable and worth an investment of education and training dollars. However, there is another important statistic that is often overlooked in industry trend reports: labor productivity. Labor productivity is the relationship between employment and output within a given industry. 17 This is important for workforce development policies as it shows the technological advancement and dollar value associated with an industry s output. Industries with a high dollar amount of output do not always translate to high levels of employment. Some industries have become so advanced in their production processes that they have no need for a large volume of employees. Conversely, industries with high employment and low output may be on the cusp of a serious economic downturn. Industries having a balance of both employment and output are desirable for a career investment. Industries having low employment and high output will likely not be hiring much in the future while industries with low output and high employment are likely inefficient and may be on the cusp of mass layoffs to compensate for the lack of revenue generated. Chart 9 on the following page displays the employment and output of the Transportation & Logistics industry subsector in Washington State. Gross domestic product (GDP) is used as a proxy for output. GDP is calculated as the market value of all final goods and services produced within an economy in a given period of time. Additionally, Chart 9 uses real GDP to compute output. That is, the value of goods and services using a constant set of prices. 18 To adjust for inflationary trends over the fifteen-year timeframe, 2005 is used as the base year for dollar imputations. Overall, employment within the state s Transportation & Logistics industry sector has remained relatively constant while output has steadily risen from roughly $6.3 billion to $9.3 billion (46 percent), during the period from 1997 to Other industries, like Manufacturing, have experienced gains in output coupled with a sharp decline in employment in Washington State. This is mostly due to the fact that manufacturing jobs have become so advanced in their technologies used during the production process that the need for vast quantities of assembly workers is no longer needed as they were in previous years. 19 By contrast, the seemingly stable employment of the Transportation & Logistics industry sector demonstrates that a significant number of employees are necessary to its production processes and have been for the last fifteen years. 12

15 CHART 9: Transportation & Logistics Employment and Output Figures Washington, (Output measured in millions of 2005 dollars) 100,000 Employment Output $10,000 90,000 $9,000 80,000 $8,000 70,000 $7,000 60,000 $6,000 50,000 $5,000 40,000 $4,000 30,000 $3,000 20,000 $2,000 10,000 $1,000 0 $ SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis - Real GDP by Industry and Employment by Industry The Transportation & Logistics industry sector consists of eight industry subsectors: air, water, pipeline, rail, truck, and transit & ground transportation. It also encompasses other transportation & support activities and warehousing & storage. These subsectors, as defined by NAICS, are detailed below: 20 Air Transportation: transportation of passengers and/or cargo using aircraft, such as airplanes and helicopters. Water Transportation: transportation of passengers and/or cargo using watercraft, such as ships, barges, and boats. Rail Transportation: transportation of passengers and/or cargo using railroad rolling stock. Truck Transportation: road transportation of cargo using motor vehicles, such as trucks and tractor trailers. Transit & Ground Passenger Transportation: encompasses a variety of passenger 13

16 transportation activities, such as urban transit systems, chartered bus, school bus, and interurban bus transportation. Pipeline Transportation: uses transmission pipelines to transport products, such as crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum products, and slurry. Warehousing & Storage: operates warehousing and storage facilities for general merchandise, refrigerated goods, and other warehouse products. Other: includes support activities for transportation, scenic and sightseeing transportation, couriers and messengers, and postal service industry subsectors. The employment and output trends for each of these subsectors in Washington State are illustrated in Chart 10. The Air, Water, and Pipeline Transportation industry subsectors have experienced declines in employment as well as increases in output from 1997 to Rail Transportation has declined slightly (1 percent) in terms of employment and only increased output four percent during the fourteen-year span. Employment in Warehousing & Storage increased 21 percent and output grew from $428 million to $765 million (79 percent). Likewise, employment in Transit & Ground Transportation increased 39 percent and output grew from $228 million to $377 million (65 percent) from 1997 to Warehousing & Storage and Transit & Ground Transportation have emerged as the leaders in terms of both employment and output growth for Washington. CHART 10: Washington State Change in Employment and Output Change in Employment Change in Output 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% -25% Air Pipeline Water Rail Truck Other Warehousing Transit & Ground SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis - Real GDP by Industry and Employment by Industry 14

17 CONCENTRATION OF INDUSTRY SUBSECTORS To further understand the trends among the Transportation & Logistics industry subsectors, the industry location quotient (LQ) was used. Industry LQ is a valuable way to measure how concentrated an industry is within a particular geography relative to a larger geographic area, such as the state or nation. 21 Chart 11 depicts the LQ s of Transportation & Logistics eight subsectors for the Seattle metropolitan area in It also displays the growth rates of these subsectors over the last ten years on the X-axis. The size of each bubble represents the size of the industry subsector in terms of employment in Water Transportation holds the highest concentration of employment relative to the rest of the nation compared to any other Transportation & Logistics subsector in the Seattle CONCENTRATION OF INDUSTRY SUBSECTORS metro area. Even though employment is relatively small (3,259), it is still almost four times higher than the rest of the nation with an LQ of Additionally, the subsector has grown at a rate of 14 percent over the ten-year span. Truck Transportation has higher employment in 2013 combined with a 5 percent increase since However, its LQ is only Air Transportation holds a significant share of jobs relative to the rest of the industry and it is well represented in the Seattle metro area with a LQ of 1.74; yet, employment has declined 15 percent since To further understand the trends among the Transportation & Logistics industry subsectors, the industry location quotient (LQ) was used. Industry LQ is a valuable way to measure how concentrated an industry is within a particular geography relative to a larger geographic area, such as the state or nation. 21 Chart 11, below, depicts the LQ's of Transportation & Logistics' eight subsectors for the Seattle metropolitan area in It also displays the growth rates of these subsectors over the last ten years on the X-axis. The size of each bubble represents the size of the industry subsector in terms of employment in Water Transportation holds the highest concentration of employment relative to the rest of the nation compared to any other Transportation & Logistics subsector in the Seattle metro area. Even though employment is relatively small (3,259), it is still almost four times higher than the rest of the nation with an LQ of Additionally, the subsector has grown at a rate of 14 percent over the ten-year span. Truck Transportation has higher employment in 2013 combined with a 5 percent increase since However, its LQ is only Air Transportation holds a significant share of jobs relative to the rest of the industry and it is well represented in the Seattle metro area with a LQ of 1.74; yet, employment has declined 15 percent since CHART 11: Location Quotient and Industry Growth of Transportation & Logistics Industry Subsectors Seattle MSA, Chart 11: Location Quotient and Industry Growth of Transportation and Logistics Industry Subsectors Seattle MSA LOCATION QUOTIENT Location Quotient Air 10,133 Water 3,259 Support Activites 13,510 Other Transportation Couriers & Messengers 6,907 Truck 11,567 Rail 2,034 Transit & Ground 5,409 Warehousing & Storage 7, (25%) (5%) 15% 35% 55% 75% (25%) 0% Industry Growth 25% % 75% INDUSTRY GROWTH Source: EMSI Class of Worker - QCEW Employees & Non-QCEW Employees SOURCE: EMSI Class of Worker - QCEW Employees & Non-QCEW Employees 13 15

18 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT The educational attainment of the Transportation & Logistics workforce is primarily comprised of incumbent workers possessing some level of postsecondary education. As shown in Chart 12, 27 percent of the workforce held a bachelor s degree or higher and another 35 percent had some college attainment or an associate s degree in Nearly 40 percent of the entire Seattle metropolitan area s workforce holds a bachelor s degree or higher. Conversely, only about 20 percent hold a high school diploma. 22 Not only does the Transportation & Logistics industry sector provide opportunities for individuals with less than a bachelor s degree, but the educational attainment of incumbent workers has changed little during the past twenty years. With the majority of its workforce possessing a high school diploma, some college, or an associate s degree, the Transportation & Logistics industry provides ample employment opportunities for lower-skill workers CHART 12: Educational Attainment of Transportation & Logistics Workforce Seattle MSA, Less than high school 8% Less than high 2012 school 9% Bachelor s degree or higher 26% Some college or AA degree 35% Bachelor s degree 1 or higher 2 27% 3 4 Some college or AA degree 35% High school or equivalent 31% High school or equivalent 29% SOURCE: Quarterly Workforce Indicators - Employment by Educational Attainment 16

19 OCCUPATIONAL TRENDS The Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system is used by Federal statistical agencies to categorize workers into occupational groupings for the purposes of collecting, calculating, or disseminating data. 23 There are 23 major occupational groups as of The occupational grouping of Transportation & Material Moving occupations is directly employed by the Transportation & Logistics industry sector; however, the sector also employs workers from other occupational groups (e.g., Maintenance, Office & Administrative Support, and Construction) that contribute indirectly to the movement of goods and materials. Table 1 distinguishes between the occupations that directly and indirectly support the Transportation & Logistics industry sector. The occupations are ranked by total employment in the industry for the Seattle metro area and include their projected annual openings through According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, annual openings is the sum of annual new jobs and replacements over a projection period. 24 Table 1 also lists the projected growth from , total jobs in the region, and wage percentiles for each occupation. The top occupations (in terms of number employed in the industry) that directly assist in the movement of goods and materials are Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers and Laborers and Freight, Stock, & Material Movers. Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers employ 14,547 workers in the region and are expected to grow at a rate of 3 percent with annual openings of 434 over the next three years. Similarly, Laborers and Freight, Stock, & Material Movers employ 24,765 workers and are projected to grow another 5 percent through 2016 with annual openings of 1,213. Though it provides a wealth of jobs and annual openings, the wages of Laborers are relatively low compared to Truck Drivers with a median wage of $13.84 per hour. On the contrary, Truck Drivers make $20.43 an hour on the median. Occupations that are indirectly related to the movement of goods and materials are primarily located within administrative support, maintenance, and management occupations. Of those, Aircraft Mechanics & Service Technicians and Cargo & Freight Agents are the top occupations in terms of the amount of workers employed within Transportation & Logistics. In 2013, Aircraft Mechanics employed 1,780 workers with projected annual openings of 205 through Additionally, incumbent workers earn a median wage of $27.10 per hour and job growth is expected to be three percent during the three-year span. Cargo & Freight Agents employ 1,327 workers and that number is expected to increase 10 percent by However, there are only 80 projected annual openings during that timeframe. Cargo & Freight Agents earn a $24.60 an hour on the median. 17

20 TABLE 1. Transportation & Logistics Top Occupations Ranked by Number Employed in Industry Seattle MSA OCCUPATIONS Employed in Industry (2013) Total Jobs (2013) Growth ( ) Annual Openings 25th Median DIRECT Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 7,788 14,547 3% 434 $17.48 $20.43 Laborers and Freight, Stock, & Material Movers, Hand 5,646 24,765 5% 1,213 $11.00 $13.84 Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers 3,509 10,354 0% 241 $12.48 $15.94 Sailors & Marine Oilers 1,753 2,068 5% 130 $21.21 $22.94 Bus Drivers, Transit & Intercity 1,676 4,997 3% 146 $22.46 $25.36 Bus Drivers, School or Special Client 1,586 4,721 2% 126 $15.66 $18.41 Industrial Truck & Tractor Operators 1,578 5,951 4% 246 $14.33 $18.45 Captains, Mates, & Pilots of Water Vessels 1,308 1,561 6% 92 $27.93 $34.68 First-Line Supervisors of Transportation and Material- Moving Machine & Vehicle Operators 1,267 3,426 2% 95 $21.95 $27.96 Taxi Drivers & Chauffeurs 1,158 2,822 5% 85 $9.59 $11.20 Airline Pilots, Copilots, & Flight Engineers 1,079 1,126 (1%) 43 $49.30 $63.45 Flight Attendants 1,050 1,053 (2%) 20 $16.44 $19.33 Ship Engineers % 50 $27.69 $34.81 First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, & Material Movers, Hand 647 1,967 6% 80 $18.74 $24.19 Packers & Packagers, Hand 631 7,578 4% 337 $9.58 $10.16 Misc. Transportation Workers % 26 $15.25 $19.89 Railroad Conductors & Yardmasters % 23 $25.26 $31.50 Misc. Material Moving Workers % 11 $27.56 $31.42 Locomotive Engineers % 21 $14.63 $16.77 Cleaners of Vehicles & Equipment 319 3,407 1% 115 $10.41 $12.06 INDIRECT Aircraft Mechanics & Service Technicians 1,780 4,926 3% 205 $20.93 $27.10 Cargo & Freight Agents 1,327 1,368 10% 80 $18.81 $24.60 Customer Service Representatives 1,189 24,114 7% 1,259 $14.30 $17.51 Shipping, Receiving, & Traffic Clerks 1,130 9,326 1% 268 $13.31 $16.55 Bus and Truck Mechanics & Diesel Engine Specialists 997 3,438 0% 87 $22.95 $26.64 First-Line Supervisors of Office & Admin. Support Workers ,946 5% 647 $21.52 $27.55 Stock Clerks & Order Fillers ,481 2% 681 $10.74 $13.93 Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, & Ambulance 981 2,277 4% 78 $15.64 $21.21 Reservation & Transportation Ticket Agents & Travel Clerks % 29 $12.75 $18.18 Transportation, Storage, & Distribution Managers 794 2,246 2% 67 $35.71 $46.73 SOURCE: EMSI Class of Worker - QCEW Employees & Non-QCEW Employees 18

21 MIDDLE-WAGE JOBS EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES The focus of Seattle Jobs Initiative s labor market research over the past several years has been on identifying middle-wage jobs in Seattle/King County and the Puget Sound area. Representing about a quarter of all jobs in the local labor market, middle-wage jobs are those that are accessible with some training or education beyond high school, but not necessarily a four-year degree, and that pay a living-wage of $17 an hour on the median. Table 2 identifies these occupations, both indirect and direct, within the Transportation & Logistics industry sector of the Seattle metropolitan area. In SJI s 2008 report, Skills Required: Preparing the Puget Sound for Tomorrow s Middle-Wage Jobs, middle-wage jobs were categorized as those occupations where no more than 40 percent of incumbent workers possess a bachelor s degree. The logic of this definition is that if the majority of incumbent workers hold less than a bachelor s degree within a given occupation, then these are accessible middle-wage jobs. 25 The wage percentiles shown in Table 2 are the twenty-fifth percentile and median. The twenty-fifth percentile is generally agreed upon to be an entry-level wage among labor market researchers. 26 The twenty-fifth percentile of wages simply means that 25 percent of incumbent workers earn less than a particular wage and 75 percent earn more. For middle-wage occupations directly supporting the movement of goods and materials, Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers tops the list along with Sailors & Marine Oilers and Bus Drivers. All of these occupations provide a living wage, require less than a bachelor s degree, are projected to grow through 2016, and provide at least 125 openings annually during the three-year span. Topping the list of indirectly related Transportation & Logistics middle-wage jobs are Aircraft Mechanics & Service Technicians, Customer Service Representatives, and Bus and Truck Mechanics & Diesel Engine Specialists. As noted earlier, Aircraft Mechanics provide individuals with opportunities for a living wage combined with positive employment growth over the next three years. Customer Service Representatives are well represented in the Transportation & Logistics industry sector and are needed in just about every other industry as well. With a little over 24,000 jobs (and growing) in the Seattle metro area, Customer Service Representatives provide the workforce with ample opportunities for a stable career that pays over $17 an hour on the median. Bus and Truck Mechanics & Diesel Engine Specialists are not expected to grow much over the next three years; however, they do provide workers with a decent amount of jobs and a median wage of $26.64 an hour. 19

22 TABLE 2. Middle-Wage Jobs with Projected Annual Openings Seattle MSA (Ranked by Number Employed in Industry) OCCUPATIONS Employed in Industry (2013) Total Jobs (2013) Growth ( ) Annual Openings 25th Median DIRECT Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 7,788 14,547 3% 434 $17.48 $20.43 Sailors & Marine Oilers 1,753 2,068 5% 130 $21.21 $22.94 Bus Drivers, Transit & Intercity 1,676 4,997 3% 146 $22.46 $25.36 Bus Drivers, School or Special Client 1,586 4,721 2% 126 $15.66 $18.41 Industrial Truck & Tractor Operators 1,578 5,951 4% 246 $14.33 $18.45 Captains, Mates, & Pilots of Water Vessels 1,308 1,561 6% 92 $27.93 $34.68 First-Line Supervisors of Transportation and Material- Moving Machine & Vehicle Operators 1,267 3,426 2% 95 $21.95 $27.96 Flight Attendants 1,050 1,053 (2%) 20 $16.44 $19.33 Ship Engineers % 50 $27.69 $34.81 First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, & Material Movers, Hand 647 1,967 6% 80 $18.74 $24.19 Misc. Transportation Workers % 26 $15.25 $19.89 Misc. Material Moving Workers % 11 $27.56 $31.42 Tank Car, Truck, & Ship Loaders % 12 $23.98 $32.85 Crane & Tower Operators 222 1,044 3% 39 $32.07 $36.66 Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors (1%) 4 $16.64 $18.66 Airfield Operations Specialists % 5 $24.90 $33.14 Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, & Hostlers (6%) 2 $16.76 $20.85 Motorboat Operators % 5 $19.36 $26.23 Air Traffic Controllers % 19 $50.26 $74.92 Locomotive Firers % 1 $20.24 $22.08 INDIRECT Aircraft Mechanics & Service Technicians 1,780 4,926 3% 205 $20.93 $27.10 Customer Service Representatives 1,189 24,114 7% 1,259 $14.30 $17.51 Bus and Truck Mechanics & Diesel Engine Specialists 997 3,438 0% 87 $22.95 $26.64 First-Line Supervisors of Office & Admin. Support Workers ,946 5% 647 $21.52 $27.55 Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, & Ambulance 981 2,277 4% 78 $15.64 $21.21 Reservation & Transportation Ticket Agents & Travel Clerks % 29 $12.75 $18.18 Transportation, Storage, & Distribution Managers 794 2,246 2% 67 $35.71 $46.73 Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks ,002 4% 544 $16.16 $19.75 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General ,190 4% 508 $15.14 $18.73 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, & Executive ,782 3% 539 $15.86 $19.07 SOURCE: BLS Training Requirements 2010, EMSI Class of Worker, ACS 1-Year Estimates

23 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AND REQUIREMENTS As mentioned previously, middle-wage jobs are those that require education and training beyond high school but not necessarily a bachelor s degree. To look at this specification more closely, Table 3 breaks down the educational attainment of occupations directly related to the Transportation & Logistics industry sector within the Seattle metropolitan area and compares it to national requirements for each middle-wage job. Data from the year estimates provided by the US Census Bureau were used to quantify the educational attainment of incumbent workers in the Seattle metro area. Data on educational requirements, work experience, and on-the-job training were provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Combining these data sources allows for more accuracy in depicting local educational attainment levels versus national education requirements. For those middle-wage jobs where incumbent workers possess some college education, Sailors & Marine Oilers provide the most jobs (1,783 - Table 2). On a national scale, the typical education required for entry into this occupation is less than a high school diploma combined with short-term on-the-job training. For almost every occupation listed in Table 3, the typical requirements are less than the actual attainment levels of incumbent workers in the Seattle metro area. At first glance, it would appear that a middle-wage job can be obtained with no more than a high school diploma. But to be competitive in the Transportation & Logistics workforce of the Seattle metro area, workers will need more education and training beyond a high school diploma. There are two occupations requiring a bachelor s degree nationally - Captains, Mates, & Pilots of Water Vessels and Ship Engineers. Given that incumbent workers in these occupations in the Seattle metro area possess some college education, a four-year degree is not necessary to gain employment. Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers provide the most middle-wage jobs (7,788 within the industry and 14,547 total) where incumbent workers possess a high school diploma or equivalent and some kind of on-the-job training. A high school diploma, one to five years of work experience, and short-term on-the-job training is needed to compete for a job as a truck driver in the Seattle area. Industrial Truck & Tractor Operators are also middle-wage jobs that provide the industry with a 21

24 good supply of jobs (1,578 within the industry and 5,951 total) and have relatively low education credentials for employment. Only a high school diploma, less than a year of work experience, and short-term on-the-job training are needed to be competitive with other applicants. Even though most middle-wage jobs within the Transportation & Logistics industry sector only require a high school diploma or less, the majority of incumbent workers in the Seattle metro area possess education credentials beyond that. TABLE 3. Educational Requirements vs. Requirements for Direct Transportation & Logistics Middle-Wage Jobs Seattle MSA DIRECT OCCUPATION Median Education Required Work Experience Typical OJT* Needed SEATTLE MSA ATTAINMENT: SOME COLLEGE, NO DEGREE Sailors & Marine Oilers $22.94 Less than high school None Short-term Bus Drivers, Transit & Intercity $25.36 High School None Moderate-term Bus Drivers, School or Special Client $18.41 High School None Moderate-term Captains, Mates, & Pilots of Water Vessels $34.68 First-Line Supervisors of Transportation and Material-Moving Machine & Vehicle Operators Bachelor's degree None None $27.96 High School 1 to 5 years None Flight Attendants $19.33 High School None Moderate-term Ship Engineers $34.81 First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, & Material Movers, Hand Bachelor's degree None None $24.19 High School 1 to 5 years None Misc. Transportation Workers $19.89 High School None Short-term Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors $18.66 High School 1 to 5 years None SEATTLE MSA ATTAINMENT: HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA OR EQUIVALENT AND ON-THE-JOB TRAINING Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers $20.43 High School 1 to 5 years Short-term Industrial Truck & Tractor Operators $18.45 Misc. Material Moving Workers $31.42 Tank Car, Truck, & Ship Loaders $32.85 Crane & Tower Operators $36.66 Less than high school Less than high school Less than high school Less than high school Less than 1 year None None Short-term Short-term Short-term 1 to 5 years Long-term Airfield Operations Specialists $33.14 High School None Long-term Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, & Hostlers $20.85 High School None Moderate-term Motorboat Operators $26.23 High School None Short-term Air Traffic Controllers $74.92 Associate's degree None Long-term Locomotive Firers $22.08 High School None Short-term SOURCE: BLS Training Requirements 2010, EMSI Class of Worker, ACS 1-Year Estimates

25 As noted previously, Aircraft Mechanics & Service Technicians are the top provider of middle-wage jobs indirectly related to the Transportation & Logistics industry. The national education requirements and the actual attainment of incumbent workers are the same. Both measurements suggest that some college education, but not a degree, is needed for entry into a career as an aircraft mechanic (Table 4). Customer Service Representatives, however, require a high school diploma and shortterm on-the-job training nationally but incumbent workers in the Seattle metro area possess subbaccalaureate credentials. With the exception of Logisticians and Aircraft Mechanics, all of the occupations where incumbent workers hold some kind of college credential only require a high school diploma nationally. Therefore, individuals looking to begin a career in one of these occupations will need more than a high school diploma to be competitive in the Seattle metro labor market. All of the indirect occupations in Table 4 where incumbent workers possess a high school diploma and on-the-job training align with the national education requirements. Bus and Truck Mechanics & Diesel Engine Specialists were identified previously as being a top provider of industry middle-wage jobs in the Seattle metro area. A high school diploma combined with long-term on-the-job training are needed to be competitive for employment opportunities within this occupation. Overall, the indirect middle-wage jobs within the Transportation & Logistics industry sector suggest a high school diploma, require little to no work experience, and moderate- to long-term on-the-job training to obtain competency. 23

26 TABLE 4. Educational Requirements vs. Requirements for Indirect Transportation & Logistics Middle-Wage Jobs Seattle MSA INDIRECT OCCUPATION Median Education Required Work Experience Typical OJT* Needed SEATTLE MSA ATTAINMENT: SOME COLLEGE, NO DEGREE Aircraft Mechanics & Service Technicians $27.10 Some College, No Degree None None Customer Service Representatives $17.51 High School None Short-term First-Line Supervisors of Office & Admin. Support Workers $27.55 High School 1 to 5 years None Reservation & Transportation Ticket Agents & Travel Clerks $18.18 High School None Short-term Transportation, Storage, & Distribution Managers $46.73 High School More than 5 years None Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks $19.75 High School None Moderate-term Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, & Executive $19.07 High School None Short-term First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, & Repairers $32.48 High School 1 to 5 years None Logisticians $38.52 Bachelor's degree 1 to 5 years None Misc. Information & Record Clerks $19.20 High School None Short-term SEATTLE MSA ATTAINMENT: HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA OR EQUIVALENT AND ON-THE-JOB TRAINING Bus and Truck Mechanics & Diesel Engine Specialists $26.64 High School None Long-term Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, & Ambulance $21.21 High School None Moderate-term Maintenance & Repair Workers, General $18.73 High School None Moderate-term Billing & Posting Clerks $19.62 High School None Short-term Rail Car Repairers $23.50 High School None Long-term Automotive Service Technicians & Mechanics $20.82 High School None Long-term Welders, Cutters, Solderers, & Brazers $21.44 High School Less than 1 year Moderate-term Purchasing Agents, Except Wholesale, Retail, & Farm Products $34.45 High School None Long-term Mobile Heavy Equipment Mechanics, Except Engines $27.30 High School None Long-term Maintenance Workers, Machinery $24.56 High School None Moderate-term SOURCE: BLS Training Requirements 2010, EMSI Class of Worker, ACS 1-Year Estimates

27 EDUCATION AND TRAINING PROGRAMS Table 5, on the following page, identifies the education and training programs provided by institutions in the Seattle metropolitan area aligned with Transportation & Logistics occupations. Programs are shown by community college, award level, and completions in Short-term awards of less than one year are the most popular types of awards offered at area community colleges. Specifically, Airline/Commercial/Professional Pilot and Flight Crew programs awarded 435 short-term certificates in 2012 through Green River Community College. Additionally, the Air Traffic Controller program (also offered through Green River Community College) awarded 372 short-term certificates in While the majority of local education and training programs specialize in air transportation programs, Bates Technical College does provide a short-term program in Truck & Bus Driving and awarded 129 certificates in Area education and training providers should focus their efforts on creating more truck and bus driving programs given the growing demand for these occupations over the next three years. 25

28 TABLE 5. Education Programs for Transportation & Logistics Occupations Seattle MSA CAREER PATH INSTITUTION AWARD LEVEL 2012 COMPLETIONS Airline/Commercial/Professional Pilot & Flight Crew Airline/Commercial/Professional Pilot & Flight Crew Aviation/Airway Management & Operations Air Traffic Controller Green River CC Clover Park Technical College Green River CC Green River CC Award of less than 1 academic year 435 Associates degree 9 Associates degree 3 Award of less than 1 academic year 110 Associates degree 4 Award of less than 1 academic year 372 Associates degree 125 Construction/Heavy Equipment/ Earthmoving Equipment Operation Bates Technical College Award of less than 1 academic year 54 Flagging & Traffic Control Bates Technical College Award of less than 1 academic year 19 Truck & Bus Driver/Commercial Vehicle Operator & Instructor Bates Technical College Award of less than 1 academic year 129 Marine Science/Merchant Marine Officer Seattle Central Community College Award of at least 1 but less than 2 academic years 18 Operations Management & Supervision North Seattle Community College Award of less than 1 academic year 5 Award of less than 1 academic year 3 Operations Management & Supervision South Seattle Community College Award of at least 1 but less than 2 academic years 1 Transportation/Mobility Management Retailing & Retail Operations Retailing & Retail Operations South Seattle Community College Tacoma Community College Pierce College at Fort Steilacoom Associates degree 1 Award of less than 1 academic year 10 Award of less than 1 academic year 58 Award of at least 1 but less than 2 academic years Award of less than 1 academic year 2 6 SOURCE: EMSI Class of Worker - Education Programs 26

29 WORKFORCE SUPPLY AND DEMAND Occupations aligning with regional completions (supply) at Seattle area education and training institutions and having annual openings (demand) are displayed in Table 6. The column on the far right shows the shortage or surplus of talent in the Seattle metropolitan area for a specific career path. There are several factors that contribute to the supply of talent and regional completions is only one of them. Unemployment and brain drain also contribute to the supply calculations, but they cannot be accurately measured and are therefore not included in this analysis. The brain drain is a term used to describe the emigration of educated or talented workers to other cities, counties, states, or countries. 27 Even without those calculations, some telling generalizations can be made about the supply and demand of certain occupational categories. TABLE 6. Supply and Demand for Transportation & Logistics Career Paths Seattle MSA CAREER PATH Annual Openings ( ) Regional Completions (2012) Surplus or Shortage Air Traffic Controllers & Airfield Operations Specialists Aircraft Pilots & Flight Engineers Truck & Bus Driver/Commercial Vehicle Operator & Instructor 1, (943) Retailing & Retail Operations (54) Construction/Heavy Equipment/Earthmoving Equipment Operation (7) Operations/Transportation Management & Supervision (191) Marine Science/Merchant Marine Officer (74) TOTAL 1,666 1,254 (412) SOURCE: EMSI Class of Worker - Education Programs Overall, the Transportation & Logistics education and training programs are under-producing a talented supply of workers. For example, training institutions are producing just 129 Truck & Bus Drivers in 2012, but annual openings are projected to be 1,072 through This means there is a shortage of 943 workers. While many incumbent workers in this field possess college credentials, a high school diploma is all that is needed for a truck driver. However, one to five years of work experience is also necessary to be competitive for these jobs in the local labor market. If more institutions start creating truck driving programs, employers may overlook a lack of experience for 27