Bundling Drought Tolerance & Index Insurance to Reduce Rural Household Vulnerability to Drought
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1 Bundling Drought Tolerance & Index Insurance to Reduce Rural Household Vulnerability to Drought Travis J. Lybbert & Michael Carter University of California, Davis Risk, Resources, Governance, and Development: Founda8ons of Public Policy University of Hawaii, Manoa December 2012
2 Drought Map
3 Drought Vulnerability Map
4 ImplicaFons for SociopoliFcal Stability? Dry and hot gejng drier and hoker (precipitafon change ; Hoerling et al. 2011)
5 Bundling Drought Tolerance with Drought Index Insurance Drought tolerance and index insurance are widely touted as promising tools for reducing drought vulnerability In isolafon, they each have disfnct limitafons Considered together they share a convenient complementarity Bundling the two may potently leverage this complementarity
6 The Drought Burden A pure subsistence burden is the excepfon rather than the rule Much of the drought burden is mediated by markets Drought responses can amplify the drought burden due to covariate nature of drought shocks Drought events can harm the poor directly Ex post burden The threat of drought is like a bully Ex ante burden
7 Ex Ante v Ex Post Effects (Elbers et al. 2007)
8 Classic Drought IntervenFons Type Acute Relief Agronomic Financial Infrastructural & Informa:onal Examples Food aid and humanitarian aid Refugee security and support Cash transfers and vouchers Breeding staple crops for beker drought resistance and early maturity Resource conservafon and other agronomic pracfces Supplemental irrigafon Extension to promote adopfon of improved inputs and pracfces Income diversificafon and livelihood support programs Microcredit and savings Insurance Dams, canals and drains Improved roads to reduce transport and transacfons costs Improved weather informafon and climate models BeKer daily, weekly and seasonal weather forecasts
9 Drought Tolerance Longstanding breeding objecfve with new tools, renewed promise and high hopes Massive private & public sector investments Public- private partnerships (e.g., Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa, etc.)
10 ImplicaFons of Non- Monotonicity (Lybbert and Bell 2010)
11 ImplicaFons of Non- Monotonicity (Lybbert and Bell 2010)
12 Index Insurance Championed recently as a promising alternafve to convenfonal crop insurance Contract Fed to index that is correlated with individual outcomes to dodge moral hazard and adverse selecfon problems Basis risk and transparency tradeoffs A growing set of experiences and rigorous evidence suggests that it may reduce both ex post and ex ante drought burden
13 Index Insurance ExperimentaFon Rainfall China, India, Malawi, Nicaragua, Ethiopia Satellite Mexico, Kenya, Ethiopia Satellite + Rainfall Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali Area- yield Peru, Ecuador ENSO Peru
14 Drought Index Insurance Are beneficiaries willing to pay actuarially fair prices? How sustainable will these markets be? In contrast to DT, the marginal cost of providing DII are high and financial viability makers Price elasfcity of demand for DII is crifcal
15 Bundled DT- DII: Complementarity Bundled DT- DII Drought Index Insurance Rainfall pdf Drought Tolerance Rainfall
16 CalibraFng a DT- DII Product: Ecuador Rainfed, drought- prone maize producfon DT maize confers relafve yield advantage of 20% at opfmal drought, which fades with less/more severe drought pressure Area- yield index insurance product calibrated and priced according to historic maize yield How would a DT- DII bundle compare to DT and DII in isola8on?
17 Yield- Earnings Profiles
18 What s a bundled DT- DII product worth? Addi:onal Cost Certainty Equivalent (lbs maize) Certainty Equivalent (USD) % Change Conven:onal Maize DT Maize $20/ac % DII- high strike $65/ac % DII- low strike $20/ac % DT- DII $20/ac (DT) % $13/ac (DII)
19 Discussion & Future DirecFons SpaFal variafon in non- monotonic DT benefits? Nuances in drought and exisfng flexibility can be very important Assessing DT impacts ex post (e.g., spafal cropping choices, hidden drought burden)? Release of new DT maize variefes is imminent in parts of Africa How context- specific are DT- DII complementarifes? Role of basis risk in magnitude of these complementarffes? How valuable might a DT- DII bundle be from the perspecfve of the rural poor? How logisfcally and administrafvely feasible might such a bundle be?
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