Toekomstonderzoek in een beleidscontext: voorbij de glazen bol? Background: environmental research on Ecological System Analyses (KU Leuven, BE)

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1 The views expressed are purely those of the author and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission. Toekomstonderzoek in een beleidscontext: voorbij de glazen bol? Peter De Smedt Foresight and Behavioural Insights Unit Joint Research Centre (JRC) European Commission Serving society Stimulating innovation Supporting legislation Bio Background: environmental research on Ecological System Analyses (KU Leuven, BE) Professional challenge: connecting science & policy in domains such as Integrated Water Management, Sustainable Development, Transitions and Innovation Experience > 17 y on a broad range of regional and EU research projects involving foresight, integrated and impact assessment working together with experts and stakeholders towards achieving a common understanding on non-sustainable trends, offering scenarios and integrated solutions to support policy-makers. Contact: peter.de-smedt@ec.europa.eu 1

2 JRC s Mission and Role is to provide EU policies with independent, evidence-based scientific and technical support throughout the whole policy cycle. Direct research: JRC is the European Commission's in-house science service and the only DG executing direct research and providing science advice to EU policy. Serving society, stimulating innovation, supporting legislation JRC in Europe Established in institutes in 5 countries 1800 researchers (2800 staff) > 1200 scientific publications (annually) > 200 files EU policy support (annually) 2

3 Overzicht 1. Begripsverkenning 2. Beleidscontext 3. Glazen bol voorbij? (methoden) 4. Case a. Industrial Landscape Vision Case b. De Lage Landen Begripsverkenning: toekomstonderzoek, toekomstverkenning, foresight, la prospective, 6 3

4 2. Begripsverkenning Toekomstverkenningen zijn een manier om onderbouwd en systematisch na te denken over belangrijke nieuwe trends en mogelijke veranderingen op lange termijn Begripsverkenning A non-deterministic, participatory and multi-disciplinary approach to anticipate mid- to long-term alternative futures. Foresight provides a space to different stakeholders and expert for systemic thinking and developing anticipatory knowledge. It explores future changes by understanding and analysing possible future developments and challenges and to support stakeholders to actively shape the future vision for today strategies and actions

5 2. Beleidscontext: complexiteit / schaal verandering 9 2. Beleidscontext: complexiteit / schaal verandering "Foresight [Scenarios] are about impact, not probability. They are about spurring creative imagination, not escaping into false precision." Patrick Marren, Chasing Black Swan Tails "Thinking through stories, and talking in depth about their implications, brings each person s unspoken assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our mental models about the world and lifting the blinders that limit our creativity and resourcefulness. Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World 10 5

6 2. Beleidscontext: objectieven (n = 2200) Source: European Union (2009) Mapping Foresight Revealing how Europe and other world regions navigate into the future Glazen bol voorbij (methoden) FR Prospective Technology forecasting (Delphi) USA, Japan, DE, FR, AT, APEC Business (Shell, GBN) Scenario planning Technology foresight UK, DE, Nordic, UNIDO FR, BE, NL Planning Forecasts Futures Outlook OECD, UNEP, IEA 12 6

7 3. Glazen bol voorbij Early Foresight (oil shocks) 1980 time/future has fascinated many (incl. scientists) act of policy anticipation principles of trend extrapolation and methods of expert analysis (e.g. Delphi & cross-impact) technology-oriented forecasting activities computer simulations in different domains (probability: what is likely to happen ) recognition of complexity and uncertainty of systems, societies and economies la prospective, multiple futures thinking and scenarios (business scenarios, prospective, environmental and energy assessments, ) 1990 national foresight activities on Science and Technology recognition of the close relationship between S&T and society 2000 emphasis on processes and products: participatory activities: multi-scale foresight scope (globalisation) 2010 foresight capacity essential anticipating crisis social media Glazen bol voorbij (methoden) Vele benaderingen: afhankelijk van opzet, proces en eindproduct. Pages/toekomstverkenningen.aspx 14 7

8 15 3. Glazen bol voorbij: bijdrage Product - Strategische informatie (duiding) - Futures scenarios/ toekomstbeelden (verkenning) - Visie (transformatie) - Roadmaps (richting, prioriteiten en connecties) Proces - Testen beleidsvoorstellen (robustheid) - Versterken netwerken (kennis transfer) - Stimuleren communities (creativiteit, vertrouwen) - Veerkracht (organisatie) 16 8

9 Case a. Industrial Landscape Vision 2025 "How will standards facilitate new production systems in the context of European Union innovation and competitiveness in 2025? Customer: European Commission - DG Enterprise and Industry Our entry point was to develop an Industrial Landscape Vision 2025 to identify the needs and new roles of standards Case b De Lage Landen 2040 CROSSING INNOVATION BOUNDARIES, THE ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF SCOPE AND SCALE Peter De Smedt JRC (EC), Frans van der Zee TNO (NL) & Walter Manshanden TNO (NL) Panel Session: Regional innovation systems 5th International Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) - Engage today to shape tomorrow Brussels, November

10 Foresight practice: further reading Future-Oriented Technology Analysis, Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy. Cagnin, C., Keenan, M., Johnston, R., Scapolo, F., Barré, R. (Eds.) Springer, Mapping Foresight Revealing how Europe and other world regions navigate into the future. European Union, The Handbook on Technology Foresight. L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, M. Keenan, I. Miles, R. Popper (Eds.). Elgar, Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future Potentials and Limits of Foresight Studies. D. Meissner, L. Gokhberg, A. Sokolov (Eds.). Springer, 2013 Participation And Interaction In Foresight. Dialogue, Dissemination and Visions. K. Borch, S. Dingli, M. Søgaard Jørgensen (Eds.). Elgar, Joint Research Centre (JRC) Thank You! Serving society Stimulating innovation Supporting legislation 10