Fort Halstead : Towards a. (Employment Opportunities) A Report by Regeneris Consulting

Transcription

1 Fort Halstead : Towards a Development Framework (Employment Opportunities) A Report by Regeneris Consulting

2 Armstrong (Kent) LLP Fort Halstead : Towards a Development Framework (Employment Opportunities) April 2012 (Updated with new Final Section August 2012) Regeneris Consulting Ltd 70 Cowcross Street London EC1M 6EJ

3 Contents 1. Introduction 1 2. The Current and Immediate Future Economic Role of Fort Halstead 3 3. Economic Profile of Sevenoaks 6 4. Existing Sevenoaks Employment Land Evidence and Related Research Other Employment Uses Assessing Market Need and Opportunity Conclusions & Short List Employment Opportunities Updated Employment Proposals - August

4 1. Introduction 1.1 In 2006, RREEF (the real estate investment arm of Deutsche Bank) formed a joint venture (Armstrong (Kent) LLP) with Hines that unconditionally purchased a long leasehold interest in the circa 135 hectare Fort Halstead site from QinetiQ 1. QinetiQ remains the freeholder of the site and also holds a long lease. RREEF has the principal interest in the Armstrong (Kent) LLP vehicle. 1.2 Hines, the Development Manager on behalf of Armstrong (Kent) LLP, had previously made submissions to Sevenoaks DC seeking the inclusion of the Fort Halstead site in the emerging Core Strategy for a mixed use scheme incorporating in the region of 1,000 dwellings. The Council, through the Core Strategy, rejected this option. 1.3 Following the announcement in 17 June 2011 by Dstl of its planned relocation from Fort Halstead to Portsdown West and Porton Down by 2017 there is now both a need and an opportunity to think strategically about the long term future role of Fort Halstead. With this in mind, CBRE has been appointed to work with the Council to look afresh at the long term future planning of Fort Halstead. CBRE has appointed a wider professional team to support and inform their work. The aim is to create a high level Development Framework to provide a vision for Fort Halstead s future. This Report 1.4 This report provides one of the initial pieces of evidence for CBRE in establishing the principal future opportunities for the site. It tests the site s capability to deliver future employment opportunities and has been authored by Regeneris Consulting with commercial input from CBRE. This commercial input is vital in ensuring that any proposals that emerge for Fort Halstead are deliverable and viable. The report is structured as follows: Section 2 explores the current economic role of Fort Halstead, in particular relating to the scale and nature of Dstl s and QinetiQ s current employment base. Section 3 provides a brief economic profile of Sevenoaks district, identifying key employment sectors and trends in employment change. Section 4 distils existing evidence relating to employment land in Sevenoaks as well as neighbouring areas and the implications for Fort Halstead. The focus here is on the conventional employment land categories of office, industrial and warehousing. Section 5 considers the potential for other employment uses on Fort Halstead, including the scope for leisure, tourism and retail employment on site. Section 6 provides a systematic appraisal of possible employment uses. Section 7 provides emerging conclusions and identifies a possible short list of employment options for Fort Halstead. 1 The total previously developed/developable area of the site is somewhat smaller at circa 41 hectares. Page 1

5 A New Concluding Section August The CBRE-led team has engaged in a wide programme of stakeholder consultation in the period from May 2012 onwards. One of the aims of the consultation programme has been to test the findings of this Employment Opportunities Report and to gather further views and opinions on possible employment uses for the site. 1.6 A new concluding section to this report has therefore been produced as of August The new section provides an overview of stakeholder responses on employment land issues and illustrates how the CBRE-led team has incorporated this feedback into a broad strategic masterplan for the site. Page 2

6 2. The Current and Immediate Future Economic Role of Fort Halstead Current on-site employment 2.1 Fort Halstead represents a key employment location within Sevenoaks district. At its peak the site employed around 4,000 people. Various reductions to this figure over the past few decades have brought the current employment on-site to around 1,200 people 2. The breakdown of onsite employment is understood to be as follows: 830 staff within Dstl. The occupational profile of research activities across the UK 3 suggest that the majority of employees (80%) at Dstl will be employed in higher level positions: Manager and Senior Officials, Professional Occupations and Associate Professional and Technical Occupations. The majority are also likely to be full time positions. Around 200 employees at QinetiQ, a private sector defence research organisation. As with Dstl it is likely that the majority of QinetiQ employees will be in higher level, full time positions. Around 150 other on-site employees. Many of these staff are employed by Serco on a range of site maintenance functions. The number also includes a reasonably significant on site security presence. 2.2 The site originally served as one of ring of forts protecting London in the latter part of the 1800s. It was first used as a significant employment site for government research during the Second World War with activity peaking in 1960s-70s. The presence of many of today s functions on site can be traced back to this period. Travel to work patterns 2.3 Fort Halstead draws in labour from a very wide catchment. Data provided to us suggests that only around 150 of Dstl s staffing quota (18%) live in the district of Sevenoaks (see Figure 2-1). 2.4 Assuming the same proportion of employees at QinetiQ and Serco 4 live in Sevenoaks as for Dstl, it is estimated that 210 employees on the Fort Halstead site live in the district in total. 2 This figure will be slightly less than 1,200 when converted to Full Time Equivalent employment, although we understand the majority of on-site posts to be full time. 3 Based on SIC/SOC data from ONS, Census Travel to work patterns for Serco staff may be slightly more localised given their occupational profile. Page 3

7 Figure 2-1 : Profile of Dstl Employees by Residential Postcode Source: Employee postcode data provided by Dstl Off-Site Employment in Sevenoaks 2.5 As with all major employers, Dstl, QinetiQ and Serco will have considerable corporate supply chains, predominantly focused around central government procurement schedules this yields what are known as indirect jobs. Staff will also spend their wages in the local economy known as induced jobs. By applying a combined indirect and induced industry multipliers for a district and economy the size of Sevenoaks (1.05 would be typical) to the employment at Fort Halstead we estimate that occupiers and their employees will support a maximum of 60 off site jobs in the district. 2.6 Dstl has provided some local corporate spend data spend, which amounts to just under 1m ( 900k) per annum with local suppliers. Utilising average turnover per employee data to this data would imply an additional 10 off-site jobs in the Sevenoaks economy. The variation in the two approaches is likely to be as a result of: Degree of accuracy of the estimated local spend from Dstl (it is likely that this data is only partial) The absence of QinetiQ and Serco corporate spend data The exclusion of employee expenditure (induced) effects. 2.7 It is unlikely that even when these additional categories are included the off-site employment estimate would exceed the figure derived from industry guidance (i.e. 60 jobs). The procurement patterns of major organisations like Dstl and QinetiQ and the wide travel to work patterns at the site will both serve to limit the degree of off-site activity locally. Page 4

8 Dstl Relocation 2.8 Dstl announced their relocation from Fort Halstead to Porton Down and Portsdown West in June The relocation is expected to be completed in 2017 and is likely to be phased. Related services provided by Serco/others will no longer be required on the site. As a result on site employment will decrease by around 1,000 jobs by At this time it is not possible to ascertain how many of the estimated 150 Dstl employees who live in Sevenoaks will relocate their homes to Porton Down and Portsdown West. It is likely that a proportion of the 150 current employees who live in Sevenoaks will remain living and/or working in the district The employment impacts on the local supply chain will depend on the exposure of individual suppliers to Dstl spend. For a small number Dstl spend will represent a high proportion of annual turnover and may lead to a re-evaluation of their continued operations. Others will be able to adjust through other client contracts. QinetiQ s Future Role on site 2.11 Our understanding is that QinetiQ propose to continue operations at Fort Halstead. All future on-site operations are likely to take place in two buildings: the existing X48 building and a new 3,300sqm office block. This will safeguard circa 200 jobs Associated open space and landscaping will be required by QinetiQ but the extent of this is not yet known The clear indication from QinetiQ is that their proposal to remain at Fort Halstead in the medium to longer term is based on the assumption that new neighbours will be secured for the site. They have no interest in the prospect of becoming the sole long term occupier of Fort Halstead. Vacated Premises on Site 2.14 Apart from building X48 (see above) all other buildings will be vacated after Dstl s departure and QinetiQ s on-site consolidation. A small proportion of these buildings have been constructed in the last 15 years but the majority of the accommodation pre-dates this period. Much of it is in the form of bespoke buildings designed for Dstl s operations. Our assessment is that very few, if any, of the premises to be vacated by Dstl and QinetiQ have any viable future for employment use The site has a Schedule Ancient Monument (the Fort) and a listed building (the Penny Building) which will be retained as part of any future re-use of the site. Page 5

9 3. Economic Profile of Sevenoaks 3.1 In 2010 Sevenoaks district housed around 42,900 jobs and 5,700 businesses. This equates to approximately 8% and 11% of all jobs and businesses in Kent respectively. Within the district, Sevenoaks Urban Area is the largest employment centre, whilst Swanley and Edenbridge also contain significant concentrations of employment. Away from the main settlements, important concentrations of employment have historically been found in the Major Developed Sites in the Green Belt, such as at Fort Halstead. Employment Change 3.2 Over the past decade, economic performance in Sevenoaks has largely mirrored region wide trends. Between 1999 and 2010 employment increased by around just 2% in total, equating to an average increase of around 70 jobs per annum in absolute terms. This rate of growth was lower than growth rates across Kent more generally. Jobs growth was witnessed in a variety of sectors; between 1999 and the sectors which grew most substantially were public administration (+1,800), construction (+1,000) and retail (+700). Between 2008 and 2010 the sectors which grew the most were employment agency activities 6 (+2,800) and cleaning and landscaping services to buildings (+900). 3.3 Year on year fluctuations are evident in the data, as is typically the case for relatively small economic areas. The most recent of these being a contraction in the employment base from 2008 to 2009, followed by growth in the period to It is likely that the district has experienced some further employment losses in the period since 2010 as a result of both national economic performance and the closure of the GSK site at the village of Leigh. 115 Figure 3-1 : Indexed Employment Change, (1999=100) Indexed Change (1991=100) Sevenoaks Kent South East England Note: Employment figures have been adjusted to take into account data methodological discontinuities in Source: Annual Employment Survey, Annual Business Inquiry, Business Register Employment Survey 5 Data for 1999 to 2008 is based on Annual Business Inquiry data. Data thereafter is based on the Business Register and Employment Survey which provides data from 2008 onwards. Individual sectors used within the two data sets are not compatible. 6 Employment agency activities refer to individuals employed through employment agencies who will be employed in a variety of sectors. Page 6

10 Important Sectors 3.4 The economy of Sevenoaks is relatively broad based; no individual sector is substantially over-represented in comparison with the national average. Many of the 49,300 jobs currently housed within Sevenoaks are those which would be expected to accompany a resident population of some 114,000, with significant volumes of employment in the retail and public and personal services sectors. Generally, however, levels of dependence on the public sector are relatively low. 3.5 Table 3-1 details those sectors of the Sevenoaks economy with over 500 employees. Table 3-1 : Sevenoaks Employment by Sector (Sectors with in excess of 500 staff), 2010 Sector 2 digit SIC Number of Employees % LQ Retail, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles 4, Education 4, Employment agency activities* 3, Food and beverage service activities 2, Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles 2, Cleaning services to buildings and landscape activities 1, Construction of buildings 1, Specialised construction activities 1, Residential care activities 1, Human health activities 1, Scientific research and development 1, Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities 1, Real estate activities 1, Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles Activities of head offices; management consultancy activities Social work activities without accommodation Legal and accounting activities Architectural and engineering activities and technical testing Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c Public administration and defence; compulsory social security Other personal service activities Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities Computer programming, consultancy and related activities Source: Business Register Employment Survey LQ = location quotient. A measure of concentration of employment relative to some benchmark location, in this case GB. An LQ in excess of 1.0 indicate a relative concentration of employment. * Employment agency activities - agency workers likely to spread across a range of sectors. Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 for data confidentiality. Page 7

11 3.6 Data suggests the district also has a large knowledge economy with around 7,500 jobs in Sevenoaks has one of the highest concentrations of jobs in knowledge rich sectors in Kent. Using Kent County Council s definition of the knowledge economy it is evident that the majority of these (1,300 or 17% with a Location Quotient of 6.5) are in scientific research and development, most of which are likely to be linked to operations at Fort Halstead 8. There are also notable concentrations of employment in head office and management consultancy activities (800), legal and accounting services (700), architectural and engineering activities (700), activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities (600) and computer programming and related activities (500). Such employment tends to be focused in smaller sized organisations. In 2008 around 40% of knowledge economy jobs were in businesses of 1 to 10 employees and a further 20% were in businesses of 11 to 49 employees. There were only around 20 knowledge economy businesses with 50 employees and over in the district. Important Employers 3.7 The district is also home to a number of major employers which play an important role in local economic performance. The largest employers in the district are spread across a range of sectors and activities as illustrated in Table 3-2 Table 3-2 : Top Employers, Sevenoaks District Organisation/ employer Total staff (not FTE) Sector Fort Halstead (dstl, QinetiQ, Others) 1,200 Public/ Private Sevenoaks Hospital 800 Public BT, London Road Private Asda, Swanley 550 Private SDC Offices, Sevenoaks Town 300 Public Sainsbury s, Sevenoaks Town 300 Private Sevenoaks School 300 Private Tesco, Riverhead 300 Private Lenta Business Space, Swanley 300 Private Source: Sevenoaks District Transport Study, 2008 Note: Original data source (2008 Sevenoaks District Transport Study) updated by Regeneris Consulting where necessary. Labour Market 3.8 Sevenoaks is a relatively open economic area, with the district experiencing relatively high levels of commuting, with around 28,400 people commuting out of the district on a daily basis and around 19,500 commuting into the district. Daily out commuting is influenced by the proximity of Sevenoaks to central London and the associated pull of occupational choice and higher salaries. In-commuting has historically been influenced by the presence of certain employers drawing on a sub-regional labour market such as at Fort Halstead, GSK and BT. 7 Redefining the Knowledge Economy, 2011, Kent County Council. Knowledge economy defined as incorporating a range of higher value added sectors including Computing Activities, Telecommunications, Media Activities, Research and Development, Business Services and Higher Education 8 A small number are also likely to be linked to activities at the GSK site at Leigh, downsized significantly before subsequent closure in Page 8

12 3.9 Average annual earnings for Sevenoaks residents (around 34,000 gross per annum) are higher than the regional average (around 28,800 gross per annum), whilst earnings for Sevenoaks workers (around 26,500 gross per annum) are below the regional average (around 27,500 per annum) Unemployment rates have been typically low. In the last decade unemployment has consistently remained below the regional average, although rates have increased since 2008 in the context of the economic downturn. Levels of economic inactivity are generally low and it is reported that local businesses face problems of recruiting and retaining staff (Sevenoaks Adopted Core Strategy, 2011). Page 9

13 4. Existing Sevenoaks Employment Land Evidence and Related Research 4.1 A large employment land evidence base has been compiled for Sevenoaks district since The evidence base relates to commercial activities which occupy space in offices (B1 which includes R&D laboratory uses and light industrial units), industrial facilities such as factories (B2) and distribution centres and warehouses (B8). These account for around 45% of all employment nationally 9. Later in the report we review supply and demand for those employment uses which do not come under the banner of conventional employment land analysis. 4.2 The portfolio of ELR documentation for Sevenoaks district is as follows: URS undertook an Employment Land Review (ELR) in which identified employment land requirements for 2005 to The URS projections are based on data from SEERA and Experian An addendum report was published in which revised or amended some of the employment areas identified in the 2007 report following the Core Strategy Draft for Submission Finally a document in 2011 looking at the long-term employment space projections for the district was produced 12. This document updates the 2007 ELR with Experian 2009 forecasts which capture, in part, the impact of the recession. B1 Market 4.3 The B1 market typically covers three different types of use: general office space such as HQs, serviced offices and business park offices (B1a); laboratory and R&D space (B1b) and light industrial space which may be found on a business park (B1c). 4.4 There is around 130,000sqm commercial B1 space within Sevenoaks district 13. This is low in comparison with similar areas across the South East which are also similarly located close to the M25 and Greater London (see Table 4-1). 9 GVA Grimley (June 2009) Planning for Prosperous Economies 10 URS (December 2007) Sevenoaks Employment Land Review, Final Report produced for Sevenoaks District Council 11 Sevenoaks District Council (February 2010) Employment Land Review Addendum Report URS Scott Wilson (September 2011) Long Term Employment Space Projections for Sevenoaks District, Final Report produced for Sevenoaks District Council 13 Department of Communities and Local Government (2008) Page 10

14 Table 4-1 B1 14 Floorspace in a Selection of Local Authority Districts Local Authority B1 Stock (thousand sqm) Crawley 390 Reigate and Banstead 300 Maidstone 200 Tonbridge and Malling 190 Mid Sussex 190 Medway 190 Tunbridge Wells 150 Sevenoaks 130 Ashford 110 Dartford 70 Tandridge 60 Source: CBRE from Department of Communities and Local Government Note: Figures are rounded to the nearest 10. Based on statistics provided by the VOA in 2008 using data collected for the 2005 revaluation. 4.5 Since 2000 there have been transactions totalling around 28,000sqm in Sevenoaks. This is split into 6,000sqm for transactions of 1,000sqm and above 15, and 22,000sqm for transactions below 1,000sqm. No individual year had transactions totalling more than 4,500sqm. 4.6 Compared to other locations in the M25 South East Quadrant Sevenoaks town centre office stock is small: it is only around half the size of that in West Malling (see Figure 4-1). Sevenoaks, and Sevenoaks town in particular, demonstrates a very localised B1 market with the majority of supply and demand relating to small units. There is no large scale out-oftown office space at present within the Sevenoaks market. 4.7 In the last five years, Sevenoaks accounted for less than 0.5% of B1 transactions over 1,000 sqm in key towns in the M25 South sub-region 16 (see Table 4.2). Sevenoaks accounted for around 1,000 sqm of B1 transactions compared to 48,000 sqm in Crawley, which accounted for 18% of the total. 14 The VOA splits commercial properties into offices, factories and warehouses. We have assumed B1, B2 and B8 uses respectively. CBRE splits commercial properties into offices and industrial (incorporating manufacturing and distribution). Similarly we have assumed B1, B2 (manufacturing) and B8 (distribution) respectively. 15 Transactions over 1,000sqm are based on data held in CBRE s database. Transactions of under 1,000sqm are sourced from CoStar. 16 The M25 South sub-region, as used by CBRE in their market analysis, spans from the Kent Coast in the North and East and stretches to the M3 in the West. Page 11

15 Figure 4-1 : Comparable Town Centre Office Stock 600, , ,000 sqm 300, , ,000 0 Bromley Redhill West Malling Sevenoaks Dartford Source: URS (2007) Sevenoaks Employment Land Review, Final Report for Sevenoaks District Council Table 4-2 Office Market Size Based on Units Over 1,00 sqm in Key Towns in the M25 South Sub Sqm % of M25 South Market Crawley 47, % Croydon 24, % Woking 23, % Weybridge 20, % Reigate / Redhill 18, % Guildford 17, % Wimbledon 16, % West Malling 15, % Kingston 13, % Leatherhead 12, % Other Towns 59, % Sevenoaks 1, % Total 271,000 Source: CBRE 4.8 At the end of 2011 there was 300,000sqm available B1 space in the M25 South sub-region. Available space in Sevenoaks town accounted for just one per cent of the total availability across the sub-region. The main locations in Sevenoaks with availability at the time of the 2007 ELR were Sevenoaks town (6,500sqm) and Westerham (1,000sqm). Page 12

16 Figure 4-2a - M25 Market Quadrants (Knight Frank) Source: Knight Frank. Map reproduced by Regeneris Consulting Figure 4-2b - M25 Market Sub-Regions (CBRE) Source: CBRE. Map reproduced by Regeneris Consulting Page 13

17 4.9 New space coming to the market in the town of Sevenoaks has been limited, with the majority of supply being second hand (over 80%) and lower grade space 17 (over 40%). The most significant impact on the Sevenoaks office market came from the BT Workstyle Building (now marketed as 160 London Road) which was completed in 2003 which offered 4,000sqm of office space. Around 3,000sqm of this space is currently available in three small units. There is also limited office accommodation in surrounding local markets suggesting that the wider area is not considered a key office location and as such does not experience significant supply and demand for office premises. At the time of the 2007 ELR there was an estimated 3,000sqm of pipeline development in Sevenoaks town. B1a General Office 4.10 The Annual Monitoring Report, produced as part of the Local Development Framework for Sevenoaks, indicates that between 2009 and 2011 there was a net increase of 100sqm of B1a office space in the district. This was most strongly influenced by an increase of almost 1,500sqm in These figures demonstrate further the localised nature of the Sevenoaks B1 office market. Table 4-3 : Sevenoaks District Change in B1a Employment Land Supply (Sqm) ,485 Source: Sevenoaks Districts Council s Local Development Framework AMR 2009, 2010, Demand in the M25 South sub-region has been predominantly to the west of the M23/A23 corridor. Croydon, Crawley, Regiate/Redhill and Weybridge account for over four-fifths of new availability in the sub-region. In West Kent, West Malling and Dartford dominate the office market and attract national occupiers. They have accounted for around 90,000sqm of take up since 2000, with the majority of take up taking place before Only 30,000sqm has been taken up in the last five years indicating a slowing in demand. This is reflected by negative rental growth across the M25 South sub-region. This is in contrast to modest growth in other areas such as the Thames Valley. Both West Malling and Dartford Crossways have capacity for further expansion if required Across the country it is evident that out-of-town business parks are currently seeing the effects of the recession and general downward shift in demand. Since 2007, there has been a downward trend in take up of space by occupiers. Though there has been a slight increase in take up in 2011, vacancy levels have continued to rise and were at a 16 year high at the end of the year (see Figure 4-3). Though space is demanded by some companies, the space released by others is greater. 17 CBRE split the office market into three categories: 1 newly completed space which will mostly be of grade A quality; 2 second hand modern units which pick up spill over demand for new builds and tend to be of a good quality with some grade A space; 3 second hand other which tends to be grade B space. It is this third category which is referenced here as lower grade space. Page 14

18 Figure 4-3 Business Park Take Up and Vacancy Rates All Regions Source: GVA (Spring 2012) Business Parks Review Serviced Offices/Start Up Units 4.13 Serviced offices provide flexible leasing arrangements for start up and small businesses and in some instances provide move-on space for growing organisations or temporary space for a one-off location-specific project team. Providers such as Regus provide equipped office space which can be leased on a permanent, part time or daily basis. The space leased by a business can be from one workstation upwards and so a serviced office often houses several small businesses. Providers tend to require single or multiple floors in larger buildings as opposed to whole buildings Both in town and out of town locations are sought by serviced office providers though out of town deals tend to be on established sites. Provision in Sevenoaks district tends to be focused in urban areas or adjacent to transport links. For example, at the Sevenoaks Business Centre which covers 3 buildings and at the Horizon House Business Centre at Swanley In 2010 there were around 174,000 serviced offices in the UK. Recent growth in demand (2% increase from ) has been more subdued than in previous years due to the impact of the recession on small and medium sized businesses. In the South East enquiry levels for serviced offices in Q decreased by 6% on Q levels. However, some larger serviced office providers in the UK have recently reported an increase in enquiries as companies seek flexibility and are less able to make freehold transactions due to tighter credit conditions. Indeed, the number of newly signed serviced office tenants in the South East increased by 75% between Q and Q and the average number of workstations per tenant increased from 2.8 to 5.0. Page 15

19 4.16 CBRE data for serviced office provider transactions 18 (such as Regus, Orega Business Centres and Easylet Offices) in the South East, suggests that there were 29 such transactions between January 2007 and March One of these was in Kent at Kings Hill in West Malling. There was a sudden fall in transactions between 2009 (7) and 2010 (2) which indicates the impact of the recession on the serviced office market (see Figure 4-4). Floorspace requirements ranged from 500sqm to 3,600sqm with the average size of transactions at 1,600 sqm. The largest was by Avanta Business Centres in 2007 for 3,600sqm in an out of town location in Harlington, Middlesex Provision of serviced offices in the UK is forecast to increase by between 3 and 5% per annum between 2010 and 2015 (an overall increase of 22%) Figure 4-4 -South East - Serviced Office Provider Transactions 0 Source: CBRE (up to end March) 4.18 The main locations for the B1 office market across the wider area are: King s Hill at West Malling has 70,000sqm of office space. The business park development is home to 200 companies and more than 5,000 employees in business property including space for international and national corporate as well as SMEs. There is consent for an additional 100,000sqm gross development, although we understand proposals may be emerging for additional residential uses on parts of this employment land allocation. Occupiers include Cabot Financial, Sterling Insurance and Barclays Bank. Crossways Business Park in Dartford is the largest mixed-use business park on the M25. The Business Park is comprised of nine different commercial areas plus leisure facilities. Companies include Barclays. It is anticipated that 900,000sqm of commercial space will be developed over the next 20 years. 18 As opposed to end user transactions as detailed in previous paragraphs. Page 16

20 Croydon - Croydon is a key office location. The town now has the most available space on the market, accounting for 26% of office space in the South M25 subregion. Croydon also accounts to 18% of new and early marketed office developments in the South M25 sub-region. Gatwick Diamond is a large area surrounding Gatwick and Crawley and up-to Reigate/Redhill. It is a key regional centre for major professional service companies including KPMG, PWC, Deloittes, BDO Stoy Hayward and Grant Thornton. Crawley accounted for the largest proportion of take up of any town in the M25 South subregion (18%). Crawley has the second largest quantum of available space on the market at the time of writing. The Thames Valley has been the focus of demand for office space in the South East in recent years, with just under two thirds of the office space acquired by occupiers falling in this area. In contrast the M25 South sub-region has only accounted for around 20% of take up in the South East There is also consent for office development of a considerable scale as part of the Ebbsfleet Valley development in Gravesham. Land Securities is seeking to deliver 560,000 sqm of office development as part of a mixed use scheme. The development will benefit from international transport links via the Eurostar. A number of other office developments at a smaller scale are in the pipeline in locations such as Ashford, Maidenhead, Reading and locations in outer London such as Chiswick Park. Figure 4-5 Key General Office (B1a) Locations in M25 South and Thames Valley Sub-Regions Page 17

21 B1b and B1c 4.20 Sectors requiring B1b and B1c employment space tend to be knowledge-rich science and technology based business and research based institutions. A range of helpful categorisations on what constitutes a science and technology based business have been provided by the likes of OECD and BIS 19. These tend to emphasise the importance of: Involvement in innovative activity involvement in the design, development and introduction of new products, processes and services. R&D intensity - either measured by expenditure on R&D or on the number of personnel involved in R&D. Intensive use of technology use of leading edge techniques, advanced equipment or having a rapid turnover of equipment. Leading-edge products and services products which display a technical sophistication and complexity that is at the leading edge of their field Sectors which tend to display these characteristics include, but are not limited to, parts of the advanced manufacturing and engineering sectors, defence, materials technology, environmental technologies, pharmaceuticals, precision instruments, healthcare technology and communications. For such activities, agglomeration and knowledge exchange with similar organisations is often important. Clustering is common as it can reinforce, and take advantage of, labour markets (particularly drawing on commuting patterns of higher skilled employees), bespoke and higher quality premises and proximity to a public or private sector research institution Clustering has been most common within the UKs family of circa 75 science and technology parks, the number of which grew rapidly throughout the last two decades underpinned by substantial public sector resource (all of the former Regional Development Agencies invested heavily in science parks). Public sector investment has been a feature of many science and technology park developments, largely because: The provision of resource intensive components such as incubator facilities which, although effective at growing innovative companies, require up front capital subsidy and sometimes revenue support because of the limited financial returns they generate for investors. The fast growing/moving nature of tenants can make short term leases the norm, and as such limit the attractiveness of the schemes to commercial investors. Restrictions on the type of tenant at some schemes can sometimes affect occupancy levels, and as such the attractiveness of the schemes to investors. The overall levels of risk attached to many schemes. 19 OECD = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. BIS = UK Government Department for Business, Innovation & Skills. Page 18

22 4.23 Post 2007 UK science parks have felt the force of both the economic downturn and more recently the tightening of public sector resources. We have entered a period of almost unprecedented public sector austerity, and sources of public funding for science park development will prove few and far between. Data from the UK Science Parks Association (UKSPA) shows that employment levels and the number of tenant companies at UK science parks has declined post 2007 and points to a large number of shelved/delayed development schemes Historically science park build out rates have not been particularly rapid, even in a period of relatively buoyant national economic performance and the availability of public funding. A recent Regeneris Consulting survey of 30 UK science and technology parks shows the median build out rate for each UK science park was 2,300sqm per annum over the previous decade Outside of science and technology parks, the other major source of UK B1b and B1c employment comes in the form of large bespoke single user campus developments, many of which have been rationalised in recent years. For example, the UK s three major pharmaceutical companies (Pfizer, GSK and AstraZeneca) have all been rationalising their R&D operations and moving towards outsourcing to third party providers in recent years as patent expiries, regulatory demands and global pressure to reduce drug prices have impacted on the sector The current market for R&D and technology occupiers is considered to be highly competitive with an array of locations (see below) seeking to capture market share Research and development activities such as those undertaken at Fort Halstead and the ex- GSK site at Leigh (Powder Mills) fall within the B1b use class and as such a high proportion of the Sevenoaks B1 space falls in this category (40%). The volume of B1b and B1c space within Sevenoaks is due in the main to historical factors rather than any recent large scale demand for accommodation. This is demonstrated by the profile of commercial B1 buildings in the district 20, 80% of which is pre-1990s Sevenoaks Districts Council s Local Development Framework Annual Monitoring Report indicates that, over the last three years ( ) there has been a net loss of around 400sqm of B1b floorspace and a net gain of around 200sqm of B1c floorspace. These figures reflect the relative absence of any recent market activity. Table 4-4 Sevenoaks District Change in B1b and B1c Employment Land Supply (Sqm) B1b B1c B1b and B1c Total ,830 1, ,220 Source: Sevenoaks Districts Council s Local Development Framework Annual Monitoring Report 2009, 2010, Valuation Office Agency (March 2005), Age of Commercial and Industrial Stock: Local Authority Level 2004, Table 3.2 Total Floorspace by LAD and Age for Each Bulk Class 21 17% pre 1940; 30% ; 18% ; 17% ; 9% ; 2% ; and, 6% unknown age. Page 19

23 4.29 There are other locations across Kent and further afield which provide a focus for B1b and B1c markets and R&D intensive occupiers and which will provide the natural locations to which demand will flow. A selection of the main locations are detailed below: Discovery Park in Sandwich has been awarded Enterprise Zone (EZ) status. It covers circa 70 hectares of the Pfizer site 22 and around 280,000sqm of floorspace. Pfizer will continue to lease part of the site and retain around employees which may act as a draw to other R&D activities. The EZ will offer substantial space for other R&D occupiers as well as offices and other employment types. As an EZ, Discovery Park will be able to offer incentives such as tax breaks to occupiers which will be unavailable elsewhere. Kings Hill at West Malling provides mixed use space including B1a, b and c. The 70,000sqm of business property includes companies such as Genzyme Diagnostics and Kimberly-Clark. Kings Hill has consent for a further 100,000sqm of development. Kent Science Park in Sittingbourne is a 45,000 sqm high-specification, purpose built science park with premises for start up to mature technology companies 23. The site is home to around 60 companies with a focus on life sciences, high-tech engineering, environmental, ICT and medical technology. We understand there are expansion plans at Kent Science Park. The Gatwick Diamond includes several major employers within the R&D sector including healthcare technologies and ICT. Companies include Thales UK (aerospace and defence) and Ceres Power (fuel cell technology transfer). The main business location in the Gatwick Diamond is the Manor Royal Business Park in Crawley but plans have also been mooted for a new proposal to develop a new science park on 100 hectares of land near Gatwick (Gatwick Green) though this is dependent on the site being allocated as strategic employment land in the Council s revised development plan. Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Surrey all have significant agglomerations of healthcare technology R&D activity. The largest proportion of research organisations in the old SEEDA area was in healthcare technology which accounted for 40% of all R&D in the region, much of which was clustered in these locations. Oxford and Surrey universities are known for their research excellence. Hertfordshire is a key R&D and light industry location. GSK has a presence in the county and a life sciences cluster facility, Stevenage Bioscience Catalyst, opened in February The Catalyst will focus on early stage drug discovery and development. Long term development plans suggest that the site may eventually offer 45,000 sqm with space for up to 100 companies. Watford Health Campus is a major regeneration project on a 27 ha site and has the potential for an enhanced role to support the life sciences sector. There are also a number of smaller sites focusing on green technology industries with growth plans including the Building Research Establishment which is co-located in St Albans district with thirty other 22 Pfizer s main operations on the site ended in Within the 45,000sqm of accommodation, there are some laboratory and office spaces currently available to let. Page 20

24 firms. The county is also home to EADS Astrium (satellites and aerospace) and MBDA (defence) in Stevenage. Essex also has notable a healthcare technologies and pharmaceutical sector with Harlow in particular having a concentration of employment in such activities including GSK, BUPA Home Healthcare and Clement Clark. Harlow Enterprise Zone will focus on medical technology, advanced manufacturing and other high tech activities on two sites covering more than 100 acres in total. Chesterford Research Park in Uttlesford has spin-out links with research institutes in Cambridge and provides space for small and niche R&D businesses involved in early stage research. Figure 4-6 Key B1b/c Locations in M25 South, Thames Valley and M25 North Sub-Regions Future Demand for B1 Uses 4.30 Demand for future B1 accommodation is set out in the various ELR documents. The 2007 Sevenoaks ELR, which was produced prior to the recession, indicates that demand for B1 office space was expected to grow in the period to It was estimated that around 4.2 hectares of office space would be required between 2006 and Conversely, the 2011 projections, which took into account data and therefore the initial impact of the recession, indicate that demand for office space will only grow by 0.2% per annum. This translates into no change in the requirement for B1 uses (0 hectares) according to the medium estimate, a minimal additional requirement (0.8 hectares) according to the high estimate and a reduction in requirement according to the low estimate (-0.1 hectares). Page 21

25 Table 4-5 Sevenoaks District B1 Employment Land 24 Demand Forecasts Low Estimate (ha) Medium Estimate High Estimate (ha) (ha) ELR Not provided (mid 4.3 point is 4.15) Long-term employment space projections 2011 Source: URS (2007) Sevenoaks Employment Land Review, Final Report for Sevenoaks District Council; URS (2011) Long Term Employment Space Projections for Sevenoaks District, Final Report for Sevenoaks District Council 4.31 Given the negligible quantities of B1 space likely to be required to 2026 it is likely that the majority of such development will take place on existing town centre and edge of centre gap sites. There also remains space available in the ex-bt building, 160 London Road. At the time of writing, only 1,000sqm of space at 160 London Road had been let, leaving 3,000sqm available to let over three floors. In addition we understand that as part of any redevelopment of the former GSK site at Leigh some (currently vacant) office space will be retained and planning permission exists for office space as part of the Dunton Green development. Industrial and Warehouse Uses 4.32 There is around 500,000sqm of industrial and warehouse space within Sevenoaks district 25. The local authority has just over half that of Crawley and less than half the quantum of Tonbridge and Malling and Medway. Table 4-6 Industrial and Warehouse Floorspace in a Selection of Local Authority Districts Local Authority Industrial and Warehouse Stock (thousand sqm) Tonbridge and Malling 1,150 Medway 1,000 Crawley 850 Maidstone 770 Ashford 680 Dartford 690 Sevenoaks 470 Tunbridge Wells 460 Mid Sussex 430 Reigate and Banstead 300 Tandridge 230 Source: CBRE from Department of Communities and Local Government Note: Figures are rounded to the nearest 10. Based on statistics provided by the VOA in 2008 using data collected for the 2005 revaluation Since 2003, average annual take up of industrial and warehouse properties was only 2,000sqm. The maximum annual total take up was just over 4,000sqm in 2006 and There were typically three or four transactions per annum in recent years. 24 The ELR splits commercial properties into offices, factories and warehouses. We have assumed B1, B2 and B8 uses respectively. 25 Department of Communities and Local Government (2008) Page 22

26 4.34 At present there is around 5,000sqm of industrial and warehouse space available in 14 properties in the district 26 (with an average of around 400sqm per property). This includes Vestry Trading Estate which is marketing a 2,000sqm trade counter space. B2 Industrial 4.35 The use of the term industrial in this report refers to the B2 use class which is defined as general industrial processes other than one falling within class B1. In several documents the term industrial also refers to warehouse uses. As far as possible we have separated out information pertaining to warehouse and distribution (B8) activities for inclusion in the subsequent sub-section There was a loss of around 2,500sqm of industrial floorspace across the district between 2009 and 2011 according to the Council s Annual Monitoring Report. Table 4-7 Sevenoaks District Change in B2 Employment Land Supply (Sqm) Total -2, , Source: Sevenoaks Districts Council s Local Development Framework Annual Monitoring Report 2009, 2010, In Sevenoaks town, industrial space is restricted primarily to a small number of trading estates (North Downs Business Park, Vestry Trading Estate, Sevenoaks Business Centre and Sevenoaks Enterprise Centre for example) with the remainder of industrial space in the district also located close to the town. At the time of the 2007 ELR the majority of availability was on the North Downs Business Park and Vestry Trading Estate. While there is a substantial supply of small industrial accommodation in the area there is limited larger accommodation and only 17 properties in Sevenoaks district are over 3,500 sqm. This reflects the fact that smaller industrial sites tend to be the most popular, particularly those with modern units Regional demand for small industrial units (e.g. up to 500 sqm), is high and accounts for over a quarter of such accommodation demanded. The ELR notes that the bulk of demand (for industrial premises) in the region is for smaller, modern units. At the time of the 2007 ELR there were around 300 small industrial premises (up to 500 sqm) in the Kent market. There have been a small number of successful speculative schemes with units for small and medium-sized local or regional companies in the region shortly after start up Localised markets have tended to struggle to attract national occupiers and speculative developments alone are unlikely to stimulate national demand; a number of factors need to be involved in order to attract national interest. B2 26 CoStar data provided by CBRE Page 23

27 4.40 At the time of the 2007 ELR there was a B2 development pipeline in the district of around 6,650 sqm across three sites: Vestry Road in Sevenoaks; Colour Processing Lab at Edenbridge; and The Teardrop at Swanley In addition to the existing supply in Sevenoaks, key industrial locations in the wider M25 South area include: Crossways Business Park in Dartford is the largest mixed-use business park on the M25. The Business Park is comprised of nine different commercial areas plus leisure facilities. Ashford is a particularly important location for manufacturing activities and is earmarked for substantial future development. It benefits from high speed rail links, low cost land and a large number of employment sites which have development capacity. Medway supports a range of industrial uses, particularly at Kings North which is a 66 hectare industrial focussed site. Shepway and in particular, Folkestone, is home to a number of national industrial companies including Eurotunnel and British Nuclear Group. Swale benefits from a number of industrial locations including the Eurolink industrial area. It has a strong industrial base and benefits from low land costs and good access to the transport network. Gatwick Diamond is a home to HQs in advanced manufacturing, environmental technologies and aviation. Companies include Exxon Mobile and Unilever. Key locations include Manor Royal Business Park in Crawley which neighbours Gatwick airport, Salfords Industrial Estate and Burgess Hill in West Sussex which has the potential for around 5-10 ha of industrial and warehouse development. The Thames Valley has seen development of large industrial units in excess of 20,000 sqm. Key industrial locations include Slough Trading Estate. Page 24

28 Figure 4-7 Key B2 Locations in the M25 South & Thames Valley Future Demand for B2 Uses Both the 2007 and 2011 Employment Land Reviews identify that B2 floorspace requirements will decline and as such there will be a reduction in need for industrial space provision. The first ELR (2007) identified a reduction in requirements for B2 land of between 1.0 and 1.8 hectares from 2006 to The 2011 update, which included some indication of the impact of the recession, suggested a larger range of decline from -0.6 to -4.5 hectares. Table 4-8 Sevenoaks District B2 Employment Land Demand Forecasts Low Estimate (ha) Medium Estimate High Estimate (ha) (ha) ELR Not provided (mid -1.0 point is -1.4) Long-term employment space projections 2011 Source: URS (2007) Sevenoaks Employment Land Review, Final Report for Sevenoaks District Council; URS (2011) Long Term Employment Space Projections for Sevenoaks District, Final Report for Sevenoaks District Council Within this overall picture of declining demand, our experience is that there will always be some requirement for replacement stock for outdated premises. To some extent these requirements are factored into the Council s ELR evidence although we would expect to see some additional renewal activity on existing sites to meet these needs. Page 25

29 B8 Warehouse and Distribution Uses 4.43 The B8 use class covers warehouse and distribution activities including small and large scale warehouses, high bay warehousing and distribution centres. As with office and industrial uses, the warehouse and distribution market of Sevenoaks is localised The Annual Monitoring Report indicates that there has been an increase of around 4,000sqm B8 space in the district since 2009 (at the rate of about +1,300sqm per annum). The more northern parts of Sevenoaks are in most demand for B8 uses, as they offer generally cheaper land than other locations with more efficient connections to the transport network. Table 4-9 Sevenoaks District Change in B8 Employment Land Supply (Sqm) Total 4, , , ,585 Source: Sevenoaks Districts Council s Local Development Framework Annual Monitoring Report 2009, 2010, Warehouse availability in Sevenoaks district was around 27,000 sqm at the time of the latest ELR, around three times that of factory availability. Sites such as Vestry Trading Estate, North Downs Business Park and Sevenoaks Business Centre provide B8 space. Vestry Trading Estate and North Downs Business Park accounted for the majority of availability at the time of the 2007 ELR (together with West Kent Cold Storage Company site which has been purchased by Berkeley Homes for residential development). There is also a trend in the district for agricultural building conversions for warehouse use There was also around 4,500 sqm of B8 development in the pipeline at sites such as Warsop Trading Estate in Edenbridge, North Down Business Park in Sevenoaks and Aqualisa Flyers Way in Westerham Looking further afield, national demand for logistics properties has been very high in recent years, with the national market driven by large retailers, in particular supermarkets, and third party logistics providers. Within the South East locations close to the M25 and Greater London have been very much in favour Demand across the region is high and the Dartford area of Kent is regarded as a national occupier location for warehouse and distribution centres, reflecting the sector s requirement to be in proximity to good transport routes. Demand for space in this area is driven by access to the road networks and national markets, although relatively cheap land is also a critical driver. Whilst the Dartford area is regarded as a national occupier location, demand is also migrating further into Kent along the M2 and M20 as well as M20 towards Ashford. Some developers have also displayed an interest in more localised markets such as Maidstone, Tunbridge Wells and Rochester. B8 Page 26

30 4.49 A logistics development requires a large area of flat, cleared land to be successful, on a site that can be easily accessed by HGVs. A modern warehouse is typically a minimum of 10,000 sqm, with a minimum eaves height of 12 metres. Logistics buildings require ample provision of loading doors typically the minimum requirement is one loading door per 1,000 sqm and provided in a mix of level entry and dock level loading doors, typically in a ratio of 70:30 in favour of dock level loading. Ample lorry parking, circulation and car parking is a prerequisite Modern logistics sites are generally developed to a 40-45% site cover, i.e. 1,750 sqm 2,000 sqm of built space on each net developable acre, with a minimum yard depth of 45-50m. Typically a new site would require detailed permission for a first building of 50,000 sqm minimum, in a single building and with no constraints on access and frequent movement of HGVs As referenced above, the principal location for warehouse and distribution in the wider area is in North Kent, particularly around Dartford and the M25. Areas around the Thames (including parts of Greater London, Essex and Kent) benefit from port links and are also becoming increasingly multi-modal, with direct rail connectivity being included in recent development proposals. The key B8 locations are: Crossways Business Park in Dartford is the largest mixed-use business park on the M25. The Business Park is comprised of nine different commercial areas plus leisure facilities. Distribution uses are envisaged. Belvedere and Erith in Greater London have wharf areas and industrial estates with a B8 focus. Crossdox in Erith has outline consent for three cross-docked units with potential to expand onto a neighbouring site. South Essex locations such as Rainham, Dagenham and Stanford le Hope are historical logistics areas with port connections which are seeing further investment and development. For example, there is a proposed rail freight interchange at Howbury Park and consent for a cross-docked facility at Prologis Littlebrook, both in Dartford and the proposed development of London Gateway Logistics Park as part of the new London Gateway port (Shellhaven) at Stanford le Hope. There is also a growing concentration of superstore distribution centres with both Tesco and Asda having made development deals. Swale has a number of distribution locations. Kemsley Fields in Sittingbourne is a speculative development around 25 miles from the M25. Gazeley purchased this 126 acre site and is developing buildings ranging from 10,000 sqm to 100,000 sqm (including speculative builds). The GP Distribution Park also supports warehouse and distribution activities. The district benefits from low costs and good access to the transport network. Aylesford has developed an offer for large and small distribution facilities, this includes a speculative building (Magnitude) developed by Astral offering 23,000 sqm for large distribution facilities, Teesland idg s Access 4:20 development at Junction 4 of the M20 and Stirling Park (an Easter Group development). Page 27

31 Medway in Kent has several storage and distribution activities, particularly on the Isle of Grain which has potential for further development within its 190 ha. The district s access to the M2 attracts transport and distribution companies. Gillingham and Chatham are also B8 locations. There are also plans to develop Kingsnorth Commercial Park with up to 12 units next to Kingsnorth Power Station. Shepway benefits from good transport networks including Folkestone port, the Channel Tunnel and the M20, making it a strong location for distribution activities. Gatwick Diamond including Manor Royal Business Park which is the largest business area in West Sussex with around 500 businesses employing 30,000 people. There are currently opportunities at the Gateway site in the Business Park including industrial and warehouse space up to 9,300 sqm. Salfords Industrial Estate is also a key location within the Gatwick Diamond. Slough Trading Estate is home to over 17,000 employees and 400 businesses including warehouse and distribution companies. It is 1.5 miles from the M4. A Masterplan will guide the development of the Estate over the next 20 years. Heathrow provides a strong draw for warehouse and distribution companies and is surrounded by several distribution parks. This includes Park Royal, a 750 ha employment area, home to 2000 businesses and 40,000 employees. Around a third of businesses at Park Royal are B8. Figure 4-8 Key Warehouse and Distribution (B8) Locations in M25 South & Thames Valley Page 28

32 Future Demand for B8 Uses 4.52 Warehouse space requirements in Sevenoaks were forecast to decline slightly in the 2007 ELR. However, interestingly, the 2011 update calculated warehouse demand by applying GVA growth projections, as opposed to Experian data as used in the previous forecast, which forecast positive demand for new B8 accommodation. This ranges from the low estimate of 2.4 hectares required between 2006 and 2026 to 9 hectares under the high estimate. The medium estimate was for 5.2 hectares. Whilst the GVA-based growth projection technique is unconventional, we would probably concur that the 2007 ELR evidence was too cautious in its assessment. Table 4-10 Sevenoaks District Warehouse and Distribution (B8) Employment Land Forecasts Low Estimate (ha) Medium Estimate High Estimate (ha) (ha) ELR Not provided (mid -0.3 point is -0.35) Long-term employment space projections 2011 Source: URS (2007) Sevenoaks Employment Land Review, Final Report for Sevenoaks District Council; URS (2011) Long Term Employment Space Projections for Sevenoaks District, Final Report for Sevenoaks District Council Note : The 2011 warehouse forecasts are based on GVA growth projections as opposed to Experian data as for the rest of the forecasts The 2007 ELR notes that it is not likely that these B8 employment land requirements will be met through intensification of existing employment areas due to the overall scale of the requirement, and that new locations may need to be identified. However, the Council s current 27 Supplementary Site Allocation Consultation (2012) identifies half of a 8ha site at Broom Hill, Swanley, for employment development. The site is adjacent to Junction 3 of the M25 and could suit B8 uses. 27 March to May 2012 Page 29

33 5. Other Employment Uses 5.1 Employment Land Reviews focus primarily on analysing the supply and demand of B class employment land. However, there is also a broad range of other, non B Class employment, which contributes a significant share of UK employment in the UK and needs to be examined in assessing the future potential of the Fort Halstead site. 5.2 In analysing non B Class uses have been split into four categories High Street Retail and Other Retail (A1-A5), Hotels, Leisure and Tourism (C1, D2 and part of D1), Residential Institutions (C2 and C3) and Non Residential Institutions (part of D1). Analysis throughout the chapter largely builds upon the evidence provided by Sevenoaks District Council s Adopted Core Strategy and a number of the supporting evidence reports and topic papers. A1-A5 High Street and Other Retail 5.3 Our High Street and other retail category incorporates a range of uses covering shops (including supermarkets), smaller scale financial and professional services, restaurants and cafes, drinking establishments, and other retail uses. 5.4 The Sevenoaks urban area is the principal settlement within Sevenoaks district, and as such is the location with the widest range of retail services. The Sevenoaks Adopted Core Strategy 28 notes that the Sevenoaks Urban Area has a successful town centre although it faces competition from other larger centres outside the District and has suffered to some extent from an increase in vacant premises since the start of the economic downturn. The town centre has a high quality environment and a good range of shops, ranging from large supermarkets (such as Waitrose, Sainsbury and Tesco s), to department stores, high street multiples and independent stores. The Otford Road Retail Park is located on the north edge of the town and contains several superstores and retails warehouses including Sainsbury, Homebase, Wickes and Halfords. According to the Sevenoaks District Retail Study (2007 update) 29 Sevenoaks is a vital and viable town centre. The study also notes that Sevenoaks town centre has a relatively local shopping catchment and that it attracts a negligible number of shoppers from outside of the district. 5.5 Elsewhere in the district, retail is focused mainly on convenience goods, serving local catchment areas. Swanley (located in the north of the district, around 7 miles for Fort Halstead) is the second largest settlement in the district but provides significantly fewer services and facilities than Sevenoaks. The Sevenoaks District Retail Study 2007 update classifies Swanley as an urban district centre function providing convenience shopping and services. The main centre in the south of the district is Edenbridge (around 11 miles from Fort Halstead), which acts as a service centre for the surrounding rural areas. 5.6 Aside from these main settlements, the Core Strategy notes that there are 40 or so villages scattered throughout the District, which vary in size and the number and range of services provided. 28 Sevenoaks Adopted Core Strategy, 2011, Sevenoaks District Council. 29 Sevenoaks District Council Retail Study Update (2007), Sevenoaks District Council Page 30

34 5.7 The Retail Study notes that there are numerous retail locations outside the district which compete to attract shoppers from Sevenoaks Town Centre s core catchment area. In the clothing sector, the main locations competing with the core catchment of Sevenoaks are Bluewater shopping centre, Tunbridge Wells town centre, Bromley town centre and London s West End. The competitors are similar in the furniture sector, along with the retail warehouses in Tunbridge Wells. Shopping outlet villages have proved successful in recent decades. The nearest outlet village to Sevenoaks is the Ashford Designer Outlet Village. 5.8 Outside of the high street and out-of-town provision, other specialist retail provision include garden centres which have a retail and catering focus, nurseries with a strong horticultural focus, and craft centres. The district has several garden centres. Polhill Garden Centre (less than 1 mile from Fort Halstead) is a retail destination which combines a garden centre with around 20 shops including those which specialise in fireplaces, aquatics, jewellery and handbags. It also includes a restaurant, bakery and butchers. Coolings Garden Centre is located on Rushmore Hill, around 3 miles from Fort Halstead. It includes a restaurant and retail elements such as hot tubs, garden buildings, aquatics, garden furniture and also hosts a farmers market once a month. Sevenoaks Garden Centre is located adjacent to the A25 near the M25 and M26, around 5 miles from Fort Halstead. The Garden Centre includes a selection of gifts. Woodlands Garden Centre is located 8 miles from Fort Halstead in the village of Ash, close to the A20. Woodlands combines plants with indoor furniture, garden furniture, aquatics, home wares and gifts as well as a restaurant. 5.9 While Sevenoaks has several individual craft centres, with a particular focus on pottery, there are no craft villages which bring together several craftspeople under one offer. Such activities in Kent include Quex Park on the Isle of Thanet in Kent which combines a 1,800 acre estate with a craft village (including silversmiths, forestry, wood turning, ceramics etc), museum, a garden nursery, falconry centre and farmshop. Barleylands Farm Park and Craft Village in Billericay, Essex includes 50 different crafts such as blacksmiths and glass blowers as well as textiles and pottery. Oad Street Centre in Sittingbourne, includes craft workshops (furniture, ceramics, picture framing) a restaurant and gift shop The Adopted Sevenoaks Core Strategy states that (building on government guidance and its Retail Study findings), retail development will remain focused primarily on the town centres. There is only a limited need for growth and as this can be accommodated in the town centres, additional out of centre provision is not proposed and would be contrary to national policy. The main messages are: Sevenoaks Urban Area A mix of uses including retail will be retained and enhanced within the town centre (with approximately 1,700sqm of new convenience and 2,300sqm of comparison floorspace being provided in the town centre up to 2026). The strategy also notes that due to uncertainties in long term forecasts of retail demand, trends in retail expenditure will be monitored and the implications for the scale of long term growth in shopping in the town centre kept under review. Other Major Towns The Sevenoaks Retail Study estimated that there is some demand for additional convenience goods floorspace in Swanley, but only limited demand to support further comparison goods floorspace. The Core Strategy states that Swanley town centre will be regenerated so that it better meets the needs of the population it serves. In Edenbridge, the Sevenoaks Retail Study identifies limited demand for new convenience goods floorspace over the Core Strategy period. Page 31

35 Figure 5-1 Key High Street and Other Retail (A1-A5) Locations Hotels, Leisure and Tourism 5.11 This is a broad category of employment uses comprising hotels, local leisure provision (covering cinemas, swimming pools, other sports facilities etc) and wider tourism attractions and destinations. C1 Hotels 5.12 Sevenoaks has a limited supply of hotels. In 2007 there were 8 hotels and inns in Sevenoaks District, with a total of 327 letting bedrooms 30. The District s hotel supply is concentrated in and around Sevenoaks and at Brands Hatch. Sevenoaks Urban Area has 3 establishments with a total of 128 letting bedrooms. The town has no 4 or 5 star or boutique hotels and is not currently served by a budget or branded hotel. The 4* Thistle at Brands Hatch is the only large branded hotel in the District and alone it accounts for almost 32% of the District s stock of hotel bedrooms. Brands Hatch is also home to the Brandshatch Place 4* country house hotel, which provides spa and conference facilities. The Best Western at Donnington Manor is another branded hotel. There are no five star hotels within the district. Since the Hotels Study Update was completed, the 7 Hotel Diner in Halstead opened in 2010 and a Premier Inn opened in Swanley There are 13 hotels in the areas immediately surrounding the District, at Clacket Lane Services (M25), Tonbridge, Wrotham, Dartford, Bexley and Bexleyheath. They comprise primarily 4 star and budget hotels, with two 3 star hotels at Tonbridge. There are no hotels immediately to the west of the District at Orpington, Oxted or Biggin Hill (other than the Premier Travel Inn at Clacket Lane Services). Further afield, Tunbridge Wells has several 4* 30 Sevenoaks District Council Hotels Study Update (2007), Sevenoaks District Council. Page 32

36 Hotels including the country house Spa Hotel. The 2007 Hotels Study Update suggested that there was also likely to be significant new hotel development in Kent Thameside (Dartford and Gravesham Boroughs) in the next 5-10 years given the large scale development of the area that is planned Evidence presented in the Seveonaks Hotels Study Update and the Adopted Core Strategy suggests that there is potential for additional hotel development in Sevenoaks going forward. This largely reflects the current limited supply of hotels in the district The Sevenoaks District Hotel Futures 2007 Update provides projections for future growth in the District. The projections suggest that under a medium level growth scenario, there could be demand for an additional 350 rooms in the district by 2026 (around 90 3/4* rooms and 200 budget rooms). Under this scenario, the number of hotel rooms in the district would need to more than double by 2026 (applying the current base of 330 letting rooms). Table 5-1 Projected New Hotel Rooms Required Budget (Sevenoaks DC + Surrounding 3/4 Star Hotels (Sevenoaks District) Area) High Med High Low Growth Med Growth Low Growth Growth Growth Growth Source: Sevenoaks District Hotel Futures 2007 Update 5.16 The Hotel Futures Report states that going forward there are potential development opportunities for budget, upper-tier budget and boutique hotels in Sevenoaks town centre; budget or upper tier budget development in Swanley town centre; budget hotels on routeways/ junctions M25, A21, A20; extensions to existing 3/4 star hotels; country house hotels; country club/ golf hotels and hotels on golf courses and quality pub accommodation provision The Adopted Sevenoaks Core Strategy reflects the finding of the Hotel Futures Study. In particular, the Core Strategy states that hotel development in suitable locations in Sevenoaks Urban Area and Swanley will be promoted. D1 (part of) and D2 Leisure and Tourism 5.18 The assessment has been split into those local leisure facilities serving the population base of Sevenoaks and t6ourism facilities likely to serve a broader market. Local Leisure 5.19 The Indoor Sports and Recreation Facilities Assessment 31 (part of a wider Open Space, Sport and Recreational Facilities Needs Assessment Audit) highlights a current undersupply of sports halls but an oversupply of synthetic turf pitches and swimming pools in Sevenoaks District: 31 Indoor Sports and Recreation Facilities Assessment, Sevenoaks District Council, 2009 Page 33

37 Sports Halls Although there is currently a small undersupply of sports halls, there is not seen to be a pressing need for new sports hall provision (due to the rural nature of much of the district where village and community halls provide a sporting function). Swimming Pools There is a small oversupply of swimming pools in the area and as such there is no need for additional provision. Synthetic Turf Pitches (STP) The analysis states that it should be possible to accommodate all existing and future for STPs on existing facilities. Indoor Tennis There is only one venue for indoor tennis courts in the District and as such a long term priority for the Council is to increase the number of facilities available. The main option is to encourage private sector provision, and we understand there to be a potential development opportunity emerging. Squash courts there has been a decline in squash provision and as such reallocation of squash courts where they are under-utilised is recommended The report also notes that whilst there are large rural parts of the district without major sporting facilities nearby, towns in neighbouring Boroughs such as Royal Tunbridge Wells, Tonbridge and Orpington also have major facilities. Reflecting current supply, the Indoor Sports and Recreation Facilities Assessment suggests that future demand for additional indoor sporting facilities is limited Aside from public sector provision, there are several private sector gyms in the district including facilities at Brands Hatch (at the Brands Hatch Thistle and Brandshatch Place hotels). Further afield there are private gym facilities in towns such as Orpington, Tonbridge, West Malling and Tunbridge Wells Sevenoaks is also served by the Stag Community Arts Centre, which houses two cinema screens and a theatre. Further afield outside the district, cinemas can be found in Bromley, Greenhithe, Oxted and Tunbridge Wells. Wider Tourism & Cultural Attractions 5.23 Sevenoaks District has a varied visitor offer. Sevenoaks Town Centre is the main location for town centre based culture and leisure uses within the district. Elsewhere, the district is home to several nationally important historic buildings (including Knole House, Chartwell, Chiddingstone Castle, Hever Castle and Penshurst Place), whilst localities such as Brasted and Westerham, have developed a local visitor economy based on fine arts and antiques. The general countryside of Sevenoaks District (including the North Downs, Greensand Ridge and High Weald) also attracts large numbers of seasonal day visitors for informal recreation There is perceived to be potential for tourism based interpretation of the industrial and cultural heritage of Fort Halstead by focusing on the Scheduled Ancient Monument (The Fort) and the Listed Building (The Penny Building). This could follow a similar model to Bletchley Park National Codes Centre near Milton Keynes which builds on its historic activities such as codebreaking during World War II and the birthplace of the modern computer. The visitor offer at Bletchley Park includes activities and exhibitions such as Page 34

38 wartime toys and working computers as well as a wartime cinema. Any such use at Fort Halstead would be relatively small scale and as a result would not by itself be viable but may be deliverable if part of a wider viable scheme The wider Kent area has a strong visitor economy, reflecting its locational advantage (proximity to London and the continent) and its diverse range of cultural and physical visitor assets. Visitor destinations in neighbouring areas to Sevenoaks include individual assets such as Leeds Castle and Canterbury Cathedral, towns such as Canterbury, Rochester and Tunbridge Wells and wider areas of countryside such as the South Downs and the coastal area The Sevenoaks Adopted Core Strategy sets out a number of policies of relevance to the cultural / tourist sectors. With regards to Sevenoaks Urban Area, the Adopted Core Strategy notes that a mix of uses including cultural and leisure uses will be retained and enhanced within the town centre. No further detail is given as to what leisure uses are sought. A number of policies are also set for more rural areas of the district. Policy LO8 states that the Council will support small scale tourism and recreational development proposals that contribute to diversification of the rural economy and vitality of local communities, where these are compatible with policies to protect the countryside. Particular encouragement will be given to business developments that re-use existing buildings. C2 Residential Institutions 5.27 Residential Institutions incorporates a range of uses including residential care for people in need of care, hospitals and nursing homes and residential schools, colleges and training centres. Residential Care 5.28 This category comprises residential accommodation where people both old and young live and receive personal care. Residential care homes in Sevenoaks are currently clustered around the major settlements. The majority of residential care homes are located in Sevenoaks town, whilst there are also clusters of provision in Edenbridge and in and around Swanley and Brands Hatch Traditional residential care homes are increasingly being replaced by Extra Care developments. The Extra Care model incorporates both self-contained flats, to aid independent as well as assisted living, together with sheltered apartments or full care nursing rooms. Recent examples within Sevenoaks include: Rockdale, a charitable Housing Association in Sevenoaks, are in the process of building a new 48 bedroom care home and 29 new leasehold sheltered apartments though an 5.6m development to replace its existing provision in the town centre. Planning permission for the replacement of Honeyfields Residential Home in Hextable was granted following an application in This included the demolition of existing care home and redevelopment of a new 80 bedroom care home, 47 Extra Care apartments and associated amenity space, landscaping and parking. Page 35

39 Roman Court was built in Edenbridge in 2005 and is managed by Perevel Retirement. It provides 52 flats (1 and 2 bedroom) with assisted living as well as communal facilities The recently published Kent County Council consultation document Development and Infrastructure: Creating Quality Places 32 sets out the framework by which KCC will work together with Districts and the development industry to deliver the necessary community infrastructure to support the forecast level of housing growth in Kent. The document highlights the fact that the Kent population is ageing with the number of people with dementia increasing particularly quickly, with associated impacts on demand for adult social services. As such, the report states that Kent delivery models are primarily focused on enabling older people, people with physical or sensory impairments, people with learning disabilities and people with mental health problems to remain in their own homes by using assistive technology and by providing suitable housing solutions whilst fully participating in community life However, despite this policy drive, there will clearly still be a continuing need for residential care provision (for both younger and older age groups). The Sevenoaks Core Strategy Infrastructure Delivery Plan Topic Paper (developed as part of the development of the Core Strategy process 33 ) states that Kent County Council have identified a need for a number of developments targeted at both younger and older age groups between , including: Short term break/training for Life flats 34 Supported Living Tenancies in various locations in Sevenoaks District Dementia Care Services in various locations in Sevenoaks District KCC are unable to provide an indication of the additional capacity required beyond However, population projections (from both Kent County Council and ONS) suggest that there will be a trend of ageing in the Sevenoaks population in the period to This is likely to translate into increased demand for residential care places for older age groups. This is backed up by research from CBRE 35 who note that with the over 75+ population forecast to increase substantially, there will be a commensurate increase in the demand for care and nursing beds in the short term. The highest shortfall nationally is expected in the Southern Home Counties, with an under-supply of 10,400 beds by In the longer term, the research suggests that (assuming current drivers remain the same) the number of older or physically disabled people living in some form of care could nearly triple by 2081 (to 1.1 million). The report notes that whilst an expansion on this scale is unlikely, there is nonetheless likely to be a large increase in demand for care accommodation in coming decades. 32 Development and Infrastructure: Creating Quality Places, 2012, Kent County Council. 33 Sevenoaks District Council LDF Core Strategy: Infrastructure Delivery Plan Topic Paper, Training for Life flats are for people who are currently in care or living with parents who could return to, or go onto, independent living following a period of support and training 35 Fort Halstead Housing Market Report, 2012, CBRE Page 36

40 5.33 There are seven new Extra Care housing schemes in Kent, though none fall within Sevenoaks, provided by Housing 21 which consist of self contained purpose built flats for older people with 24 hour on hand support. The Brendoncare Foundation made an application for a residential care home, on a 2 hectare site, containing 48 self-contained flats and 40 nursing care rooms in Edenbridge. This is currently undergoing planning appeal following a refusal on the grounds that the development went against policy LO6 of the Core Strategy. On the whole, Sevenoaks District Council will seek to integrate residential care into residential communities. Therefore, stand alone residential care provision may not be an option for an out of town location unless additional housing is also provided Clearly, demographic and socio-economic factors will continue to drive demand over the next thirty years particularly in relation to residential accommodation targeted at older age groups. In response, CBRE suggest that the development of continuing care retirement communities (CCRC) (providing a full spectrum of accommodation and care services starting at independent retirement living through to nursing care providing full 24 hour care) will be a particular area of growth in future years. Hospitals 5.35 The Sevenoaks and Edenbridge War Memorial Hospitals are currently the only NHS hospitals within Sevenoaks district. Further afield, there are NHS Hospitals in Tunbridge Wells, Orpington and Tonbridge. Private sector hospitals are located in Orpington, Fawkham and Tunbridge Wells. The LDF Core Strategy: Infrastructure Delivery Plan Topic Paper highlights the existence of a number of existing improvements which are of relevance to provision: NHS West Kent is committed to carrying out certain alterations and adaptations to Sevenoaks Hospital to increase the range of services provided there. These are currently only programmed to meet the needs of the existing population; The development of the new Pembury Hospital, in Tunbridge Wells Borough, is expected to be fully operational in It will provide improved health facilities for residents in parts of Sevenoaks District NHS West Kent have also identified that in order to accommodate the scale and distribution of development proposed in the LDF Core Strategy, further expansion and improvements to Sevenoaks Hospital will be required. However, these improvements are not identified as being critical to deliver the scale and distribution of development in the Core Strategy. Student Accommodation 5.37 Reflecting the relatively strong demand for Higher Education places, there is strong demand for good quality student accommodation in the UK. CBRE report that the sector has been performing well through 2011, with high occupancy rates and strong rental growth. Whilst student accommodation is typically associated with the higher education sector, demand is also sometimes generated by the further education sector Whilst there are no higher education institutions or campuses in Sevenoaks, there are several institutions and campuses in the wider sub region, including Hadlow College of Agriculture (which has campuses across Kent with the nearest in Tonbridge), Canterbury Christ Church University (Solomons Campus near Tunbridge Wells), West Kent College Page 37

41 (Tonbridge) and the University of Kent (which includes Tonbridge Campus). Sevenoaks is also within easy reach of London s higher education institutions. In terms of further education, the Plumbing Academy in Edenbridge (in Sevenoaks) provides vocational training in plumbing trades Student accommodation is typically located in close proximity to the associated institutions teaching facilities whether in a town centre or on a specific campus. As such, the demand and supply market for bespoke student accommodation in Sevenoaks is currently limited However, locating both an education institution and the associated accommodation within Sevenoaks could be an opportunity. For example, Hadlow College has demonstrated some interest in finding space for additional facilities Going forward, it is likely that universities, and the associated private sector accommodation market, will continue to prioritise the provision of good quality student housing in the context of the increasingly competitive market for both domestic and international students There is no policy guidance regarding future provision of student accommodation in the Adopted Core Strategy, as the West Kent SHMA identified no significant requirement in the district. D1 Non-Residential Institutions 5.43 Non-Residential Institutions incorporate a wide range of uses including healthcare (excluding hospitals and nursing homes which are covered above), crèche and nursery facilities, education, libraries, public exhibition halls, places of worship and law courts The Adopted Sevenoaks Core Strategy notes that there are only a small number of infrastructure improvements where it has been sufficiently demonstrated that delivery is critical to the delivery of the Core Strategy these relate to education, transport, open space, sports and recreation. In addition to these critical infrastructure schemes, a range of improvements are identified which would serve proposed development and overcome existing deficiencies but which are not considered to be critical to the delivery of the Core Strategy The Infrastructure Delivery Schedule is appended to the Adopted Core Strategy and lists schemes that have been identified by infrastructure providers as being likely to be completed during the Core Strategy period. The forthcoming Allocations and Development Management DPD will ultimately set out more detailed infrastructure requirements. However, the most recent Sevenoaks Annual Monitoring Report 36 (2011) notes that to date, none of the infrastructure schemes identified in the Infrastructure Delivery Schedule have been completed The LDF portfolio of documents focuses on a number of specific sectors relating to nonresidential public sector uses. These are discussed in turn below: 36 Sevenoaks Local Development Framework Annual Monitoring Report, December Page 38

42 Education and Youth Services 5.47 In this category we refer to a range of education related activities including nurseries, primary schools, secondary schools, youth centres and adult education. Kent County Council administers publically provided education and youth services in Sevenoaks district. As with other publicly provided services, the provision of these types of facility typically reflects the geographic distribution of settlements and population. Children s Centres The LDF Core Strategy: Infrastructure Delivery Plan Topic Paper states Kent County Council have not identified a need for additional children s centres as a result of development proposed in the LDF Core Strategy. Primary Schools The Sevenoaks Core Strategy Infrastructure Delivery Plan Topic Paper states that as a result of the Core Strategy Proposed Development, additional capacity for primary school places will be required in the Sevenoaks Urban Area from 2011/12 onwards and in Swanley from 2012/13 onwards. Provision of this additional capacity is considered to be critical to the delivery of the scale and distribution of development proposed in the LDF Core Strategy. The report also states that a more detailed assessment of whether additional primary school capacity is required in other settlements will need to be carried out once residential development sites are identified in the Site Allocations DPD. Secondary Schools The Sevenoaks Core Strategy Infrastructure Delivery Plan Topic Paper states that no additional capacity for secondary school places will be required in Sevenoaks District as a result of development proposed in the Sevenoaks District Core Strategy. KCC s Strategic Plan for the Provision of Secondary School Places identifies a surplus of capacity across Sevenoaks District. Despite this, the development of a satellite grammar school in Sevenoaks, linked to existing grammar schools in Tonbridge and Tunbridge Wells, has recently been approved. This is an indication of the lack of grammar school provision in the district which means that an estimated 1,000 pupils who have passed the 11 plus have to travel out of the district to Tunbridge Wells for grammar education. The Council are considering five sites for the new school including the site of the former Wildernesse School in Sevenoaks. The satellite school would take 120 pupils in a year. Youth Centres The Sevenoaks Core Strategy Infrastructure Delivery Plan Topic Paper identifies a need for the build and fit out of a youth services district hub in Sevenoaks Town and build and fit out of youth services community hubs at Edenbridge, Westerham and New Ash Green between 2008 and However, these schemes are not considered critical to the delivery of the scale and distribution of development proposed in the LDF Core Strategy. No indication of the additional capacity required beyond 2013 is given. Adult Education The Sevenoaks Core Strategy Infrastructure Delivery Plan Topic Paper identifies a need a number of developments between , including the re-location and expansion of Sevenoaks Adult Education Centre; the build and fit-out of suitable spaces within shared-use community buildings to provide local centres and community hubs in Swanley and Edenbridge; and the provision of skills plus IT facilities in various locations, such as Gateways, libraries, archives and other adult education centres across the district. Page 39

43 Health and Care Services (Non Residential) 5.48 This category incorporates a range of activities including non residential healthcare provision (e.g. GPs) and wider non residential care services (for all age groups). As with other publicly provided services, the provision of these types of facility typically reflects the geographic distribution of settlements and population The Sevenoaks Core Strategy Infrastructure Delivery Plan Topic Paper notes a number of health infrastructure needs in Sevenoaks District, including an urgent need to relocate, expand and improve the Sevenoaks Town Medical Centre, a need for improved local GP surgery provision in Hextable and expansion and improvement to Edenbridge Medical Centre will be required. However, none of these schemes are identified as being critical to delivery of the scale and distribution of development in the Core Strategy Provision of wider non-residential care services (for all age groups) will be influenced going forward by the policy drive towards care in the home models of delivery. The consultation document Development and Infrastructure: Creating Quality Places states that Kent delivery models are primarily focused on enabling older people, people with physical or sensory impairments, people with learning disabilities and people with mental health problems to remain in their own homes by using assistive technology and by providing suitable housing solutions whilst fully participating in community life. To support this, focus will be placed on the provision of facilities such as community / local hubs within shared buildings; co-location with health services and integrated dementia day care hubs This policy direction is reflected in the future social services infrastructure requirements identified for Sevenoaks by KCC. The Sevenoaks Core Strategy Infrastructure Delivery Plan Topic Paper identifies a need for the following non residential developments between 2008 and 2013 (none of which are considered critical to the delivery of the scale and distribution of development proposed in the LDF Core Strategy) land, construction and fit out of Adult Social Services community hubs in Sevenoaks town centre, Swanley town centre and Edenbridge Community Centre; and land, construction and fit out of changing/toileting facilities for people with personal care needs in Edenbridge, Sevenoaks and Swanley No indication of the additional capacity required for wider non-residential care facilities beyond 2013 is given. However, population projections (from both Kent County Council and ONS) suggest that there will be a trend of ageing in the Sevenoaks population in the period to With the proportion of residents requiring access to care services set to increase, this is likely to translate into increased demand for non-residential care services. Other Public Services - Libraries 5.53 Libraries in Sevenoaks are administered by Kent County Council. As with other publicly provided services, the provision of libraries typically reflects the geographic distribution of settlements and population. The LDF Core Strategy: Infrastructure Delivery Plan Topic Paper references the Kent County Council Community Infrastructure Provision Paper, which identifies a need for the following developments between : reconfiguration and expansion of Swanley Library; and build and fit out of a Library and History Centre in Maidstone (to serve the whole of the County). In addition to the above schemes KCC have advised that extensions are likely to be required to Edenbridge and Sevenoaks libraries. Page 40

44 5.54 KCC are unable to provide an indication of the additional capacity required beyond However, the LDF Core Strategy: Infrastructure Delivery Plan Topic Paper states that it is not considered that the Library and Archive Services schemes identified by KCC are critical to the delivery of the scale and distribution of development proposed in the LDF Core Strategy. These findings are reflected in the Adopted Core Strategy. Page 41

45 6. Assessing Market Need and Opportunity 6.1 In order to form conclusions and identify a short list of potential employment use options for Fort Halstead following Dstl s relocation, it is important to systematically consider various potential uses. We have done this by segmenting the employment land market into different use types and appraising these according to a set of criteria. Segmentation of the Employment Land Market 6.2 The conventional employment land market as set out in Employment Land Review guidance can be segmented as follows: Office (B1a) covering general offices including HQs, call centres, IT and data centres, business parks and serviced offices. R&D and Light Industrial (B1b and B1c) - includes laboratory and R&D space as well as light industrial units which may be located on a business park. General Industrial (B2) - relates to industrial process uses other than those falling under B1c (light industrial). For example, a car manufacturing plant or engineering site or other manufacturing process. Warehouse and Distribution (B8) includes storage and distribution uses. 6.3 In categorising other employment uses we have built upon previous work carried out around this topic 37 and analysed the following: High Street and Other Retail (A1-A5) - includes shops (including supermarkets), financial and professional services, restaurants and cafes, as well as a variety of other specialist retail uses. Hotels, Leisure and Tourism (C1, D2 and part of D1) - covers hotels and leisure uses including cinemas, swimming pools, museums and art galleries, and tourist attractions. Residential Institutions (C2 and C3) - relates to residential care for people in need of care, hospitals and nursing homes and residential schools, colleges and training centres. Non-Residential Institutions (part of D1) includes healthcare (excluding hospitals and nursing homes which are covered above), crèche and nursery facilities, education, libraries, places of worship and law courts etc. 6.4 The myriad of other Sui Generis uses (such as theatres, amusement arcades, funfairs, launderettes, petrol stations, car showrooms, taxi hire, scrap yards, hostels, waste disposal sites, retail warehouse clubs, night clubs and casinos) have not been assessed systematically. 37 GVA Grimley (June 2009) Planning for Prosperous Economies Page 42

46 Appraisal of Market Opportunities 6.5 Below we consider each of the above categories in terms of their suitability for the Fort Halstead site. A systematic appraisal was carried out against a set of criteria as follows: Main locational and policy drivers affecting the category Historic and likely future locations in neighbouring areas Scale of likely demand for space in Sevenoaks as indicated in local evidence and policy in next 15 years Scale of likely demand for space in Sevenoaks emerging from sub-regional/wider market demands in next 15 years Typical scale of development when seeking to develop a new location/destination Appropriateness of the category in the context of Fort Halstead layout, landscape, position in the highways network etc Estimated maximum scale of demand (land take) that could materialise at Fort Halstead in broad terms in next 15 years. 6.6 The table overleaf sets out the findings of this systematic appraisal. The assessment process is seeking to distinguish between those employment uses for which there is likely to be developer and occupier demand at Fort Halstead in the next 15 years and those for which there is not. 6.7 For each of the opportunities that are identified we also comment on the likely deliverability and viability issues that would need to be considered if the opportunities were to be advanced - not least the substantial demolition, decontamination and up-front infrastructure costs that will need to be met as part of bringing forward new development. Page 43

47 Main location and policy drivers Historic and likely future locations in neighbouring areas Scale of likely demand for space in Sevenoaks as indicated in local evidence and policy, in next 15 years (1 = no demand 5 = considerable demand) Scale of likely demand for space in Sevenoaks emerging from regional/wider market demands in next 15 years (1 = no demand 5 = considerable demand) M25 South market has declined considerably in recent years, with any demand most likely to migrate to established and new/emerging destinations. Typical scale of development when seeking to develop a new location / destination Appropriateness in the context of Fort Halstead layout, landscape, position in the highways network etc (1 = highly inappropriate 5= highly appropriate ) Estimated maximum scale of demand (land take) that could materialise at Fort Halstead in next 15 years If some developer or occupier demand, what are the key delivery and viability issues? Office (B1a) - General offices including HQs, call centres, IT and data centres, business parks and serviced offices. Quantum and skills of labour market Quality and profile of environment Accessibility Access to amenities Policy favours boosting town centre markets Kings Hill, West Malling Crossways, Dartford Crawley and Gatwick Diamond (inc Reigate/Redhill) Croydon, Woking, Weybridge Thames Valley Latest (2011) Council evidence states only 0.8ha max needed to Earlier evidence (2007) stated 4.5 hectares. All evidence points to a very localised market with small scale demand. Council s ELR suggests both the 2007 or 2011 need largely met by gap/infill developments. There is also space within existing office buildings, 160 London Road in particular (3,000sqm), which will absorb some demand. M25 South market unlikely to require a new large scale out of town destination. Demand = 1 A new strategic B1 location likely to require at least 8-10 hectares to achieve profile and critical mass. New B1 office destinations tend to favour visible locations, with good transport accessibility and access to amenities. Fort Halstead is likely to be too secluded for the majority of the office market. Serviced offices prefer to locate in established commercial areas to benefit from amenities, transport links and critical mass of demand. Appropriateness = 2 Most likely scale of demand will be zero, based on ELR evidence, wider trends in demand in the M25 South market area and site characteristics. We will, however, continue to explore the potential for smaller scale office provision to meet local needs in the longer term. N/R Demand = 1 to 2 Page 44

48 Main location and policy drivers Historic and likely future locations in neighbouring areas Scale of likely demand for space in Sevenoaks as indicated in local evidence and policy, in next 15 years (1 = no demand 5 = considerable demand) Included in above Scale of likely demand for space in Sevenoaks emerging from regional/wider market demands in next 15 years (1 = no demand 5 = considerable demand) Large scale HQ/other relocations very rare, and would migrate to more established destinations. Many other (more mature and established) locations are offering space for smaller scale occupiers. Typical scale of development when seeking to develop a new location / destination Appropriateness in the context of Fort Halstead layout, landscape, position in the highways network etc (1 = highly inappropriate 5= highly appropriate ) Estimated maximum scale of demand (land take) that could materialise at Fort Halstead in next 15 years If some developer or occupier demand, what are the key delivery and viability issues? R&D and Light Industrial (B1b/c) - Laboratory and R&D space as well as light industrial units which may be located on a business park. Clustering with similar organisations Proximity to research institute or key employer Access to highly skilled labour Quality of environment Discovery Park, Sandwich (EZ) Kings Hill, West Malling Kent Science Park Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Surrey, Hertfordshire and Essex for key R&D clusters No separate B1b&c demand analysis available Demand = 1 to 2 Demand = 1 Varies, although small specialist technology and R&D sites can be established on basis of 4-6 hectares. Most new developments in last 10 years underpinned by public sector grants. If QinetiQ remains on site there may be potential for agglomeration. However, QinetiQ is relatively small scale and less likely than other major R&D organisations to act as an agglomeration draw. Relative seclusion of site also likely to be a constraint. Appropriateness = 3 Based on market intelligence (no additional demand anticipated in Sevenoaks) and risks involved in developing new R&D technology locations, demand most likely limited to the circa 2-3 hectares required by QinetiQ. QinetiQ have no interest in becoming the sole long term occupier of Fort Halstead. QinetiQ would require other neighbours to help create new sense of place and to provide natural surveillance. General Industrial (B2) - Industrial process uses other than those falling under B1c (light industrial). Proximity to transport networks. Access to markets, and reliable energy Labour force availability. Seclusion preferable for some industrial processes. Crossways Dartford Shepway Swale Medway Gatwick Diamond Ashford Thames Valley Latest Council evidence states overall reduction in demand of 4.5 hectares in the period to Decline in demand also evident in 2007 ELR. Demand = 1 General picture across the sub-region is of declining demand for industrial sites. Several locations are re-defining their offer to capture demand that does exist. Transactions primarily focused on established locations. Demand = 1 Strategically significant B2/B8 sites would be in the region of at least 20 hectares. Smaller destinations are developed where demand profile is more local. Secluded site may be an advantage for some industrial processes. Highways access and HGV access sub-optimal in the eyes of many B2 occupiers. Appropriateness = 2 There is no additional land required for this sector and so the most likely scale of demand will be zero, based on declining demand and site characteristics. N/R Page 45

49 Main location and policy drivers Historic and likely future locations in neighbouring areas Scale of likely demand for space in Sevenoaks as indicated in local evidence and policy, in next 15 years (1 = no demand 5 = considerable demand) The Council s 2011 ELR evidence forecasts positive demand for new B8 accommodation. The mid-point estimate is for an additional 5.2 hectares to Whilst the projection technique is unconventional, it is arguably a better reflection of need than the 2007 ELR. Scale of likely demand for space in Sevenoaks emerging from regional/wider market demands in next 15 years (1 = no demand 5 = considerable demand) The Dartford area is regarded as a national occupier location for B8, with demand also migrating further into Kent along the M2 and M20. Most sub-regional demand likely to migrate to these locations. Typical scale of development when seeking to develop a new location / destination Appropriateness in the context of Fort Halstead layout, landscape, position in the highways network etc (1 = highly inappropriate 5= highly appropriate ) Estimated maximum scale of demand (land take) that could materialise at Fort Halstead in next 15 years If some developer or occupier demand, what are the key delivery and viability issues? Warehouse and Distribution (B8) Storage and distribution, typically warehousing. Proximity to motorway network, and good access for HGV movements Ability to construct large units is often a driver Low land values. Crossways Business Park, Dartford Kemsley Fields, Sittingbourne Aylesford Medway Shepway Gatwick Diamond Demand = 3 Demand = 1 Strategically significant B2/B8 sites would be in the region of at least 20 hectares. Smaller destinations (5-10 hectares) are developed where demand profile is more local. Highways access and HGV access sub-optimal in the eyes of many B8 occupiers. Site does not lend itself to multiple large B8 units, both in terms of inability to create multiple large development plots and height restrictions. Appropriateness = 1 Most likely scale of demand will be zero, despite evidence of some local need. Site characteristics considered inappropriate for B8 market. The Broom Hill employment site at Swanley adjacent to the M25 would provide a more suitable location for B8 uses than Fort Halstead. N/R Page 46

50 Main location and policy drivers Historic and likely future locations in neighbouring areas Scale of likely demand for space in Sevenoaks as indicated in local evidence and policy, in next 15 years (1 = no demand 5 = considerable demand) Evidence base suggests need for some additional demand in Sevenoaks TC (1,700sqm convenience and 2,300sqm comparison) to 2026 which is already being planned for. Some demand for additional convenience floorspace in Swanley to New out of town provision not needed. Scale of likely demand for space in Sevenoaks emerging from regional/wider market demands in next 15 years (1 = no demand 5 = considerable demand) Typical scale of development when seeking to develop a new location / destination Appropriateness in the context of Fort Halstead layout, landscape, position in the highways network etc (1 = highly inappropriate 5= highly appropriate ) Estimated maximum scale of demand (land take) that could materialise at Fort Halstead in next 15 years If some developer or occupier demand, what are the key delivery and viability issues? High Street and Other Retail (A1-A5) - Shops (including supermarkets), small scale financial and professional services, restaurants and cafes, drinking establishments and a range of specialist retail functions. Footfall and proximity to local population Access to labour force For comparison goods - clustering with other comparison uses, wider catchments and income levels. Strong policy push for enhancing town centre provision Convenience Sevenoaks town centre, Swanley and Edenbridge, towns and larger villages outside district Comparison Sevenoaks, Bromley, Tunbridge Wells, Bluewater, London s West End Demand = 2 Retail dynamics unlikely to change significantly, with Sevenoaks remaining the main comparison goods location within Sevenoaks. Some comparison retail leakage to larger destinations likely to continue. Scope for some expansion of specialist retail offer serving Sevenoaks and wider catchment (garden centres, horticultural, crafts). Demand = 2 for High Street and conventional out-oftown provision. = 3 to 4 for specialist provision. New outlet villages vary in size. Most mature facilities comprise in the region of stores. Smaller convenience stores and cafes tend to have sales area of less than 300sqm whilst superstores have sales area up-to 3,000sqm. Even if policy permitted, larger scale retail units unlikely to be attracted to site as no realistic prospect of substantial footfall. However, some potential for specialist retail provision. Smaller scale (ancillary) retail units could be accommodated as part of a wider mixed use development. Appropriateness = 1 for High Street and conventional out-oftown provision. = 4 for specialist provision. No realistic demand will materialise for larger scale retail, other than perhaps for specialist retail provision such as garden centre provision (requiring some 2 hectares). Smaller scale ancillary provision (requiring circa 1-2 hectares) could be located on site if a new residential community was to materialise. Specialist retail provision would require new infrastructure provision, delivery of which dependent on securing a wider mix of viable uses for Fort Halstead. Smaller scale ancillary provision only required (or deliverable) alongside any new residential community. Page 47

51 Main location and policy drivers Historic and likely future locations in neighbouring areas Scale of likely demand for space in Sevenoaks as indicated in local evidence and policy, in next 15 years (1 = no demand 5 = considerable demand) Hotels demand for additional hotel provision, with a key gap in upper tier and boutique hotels Scale of likely demand for space in Sevenoaks emerging from regional/wider market demands in next 15 years (1 = no demand 5 = considerable demand) Hotels market likely to be affected by scale of new development elsewhere, for example in Kent Thameside. Likely to be role for additional new facility in wider Kent market. Typical scale of development when seeking to develop a new location / destination Appropriateness in the context of Fort Halstead layout, landscape, position in the highways network etc (1 = highly inappropriate 5= highly appropriate ) Estimated maximum scale of demand (land take) that could materialise at Fort Halstead in next 15 years If some developer or occupier demand, what are the key delivery and viability issues? Hotels, Leisure and Tourism (C1/D2 and elements of D1) - Hotels and local leisure uses (including cinemas, swimming pools etc) and the wider tourism product (visitor attractions and destinations) Population catchment Accessibility for local leisure provision Quality of environment is key for higher quality and bespoke hotels Hotels Tonbridge, Wrotham, Tunbridge Wells, Dartford, M25, Bexley Leisure Tonbridge, Orpington, Tunbridge Wells Tourism Numerous individual attractions and areas Demand = 4 to 5 Local leisure no major deficiencies identified Demand = 1 Tourism difficult to evidence demand other than for specific proposals Broad policy support for new smaller scale tourism initiatives Demand = 3 to 4 Demand = 4 to 5 Local leisure provision demand from wider area not relevant Any proposed new tourism facility likely to be heavily dependent (by definition) on wider demand from outside Sevenoaks Average high quality hotel likely to require a circa 2-3 hectare plot. Local leisure provision dependent on precise nature of facility. Tourism provision dependent on precise nature of facility. Hotel provision would be in keeping with the landscape and setting of Fort Halstead, particularly if higher quality provision. Appropriateness = 5 New tourism offer could be appropriate if aligned to historic site context and interpretation. Appropriateness = 4 Other new tourism attractions less appropriate. Provision of a high quality country house hotel likely to require a circa 2-3 hectare plot. No new local leisure provision anticipated. Tourism most likely based around historic building on site and involve in some form access to historic Fort area. Likely to require upto 2 hectares (inclusive of Fort area). Hotel operator demand likely to dependent on provision of appropriate infrastructure and creation of an attractive wider setting. New tourism facilities of the type envisaged typically dependent on some form of cross subsidy, both at construction stage and often to fund ongoing operations. Demand = 3 to 4 Page 48

52 Main location and policy drivers Historic and likely future locations in neighbouring areas Scale of likely demand for space in Sevenoaks as indicated in local evidence and policy, in next 15 years (1 = no demand 5 = considerable demand) Hospitals expansion to Sevenoaks hospital Scale of likely demand for space in Sevenoaks emerging from regional/wider market demands in next 15 years (1 = no demand 5 = considerable demand) Residential Care and hospitals Ageing population a key consideration. Under supply of 10,400 care and nursing beds in South East by 2021 Student accommodation market is strong and supply of good quality accommodation likely to be important for HE, although normally located in proximity to education institution. Typical scale of development when seeking to develop a new location / destination Appropriateness in the context of Fort Halstead layout, landscape, position in the highways network etc (1 = highly inappropriate 5= highly appropriate ) Estimated maximum scale of demand (land take) that could materialise at Fort Halstead in next 15 years If some developer or occupier demand, what are the key delivery and viability issues? Residential Institutions (C2/C3) - Residential care, hospitals and nursing homes and residential schools/college/training centres. Residential Care and Hospitals Population catchment areas, demographic characteristics, local strategic policies (e.g move to care in the home) Student Accommodation proximity to teaching facilities, accessibility. Access to amenities. Hospitals Tonbridge, Tunbridge Wells Residential Care typically larger settlements /urban areas (e.g. Orpington, Tonbridge Tunbridge Wells) Student Accommodation Tonbridge, Tunbridge Wells, London (various) Demand = 1 Residential Care need for various types of new provision locally. Demand = 4 Student Accommodation no requirements identified Demand = 1 Demand = 1 for hospitals = 4 for residential care = 1 for student accommodation Residential Care Typically a continuing care retirement community would occupy a site of circa 3 hectares (excluding conventional housing for the elderly) Student Campus campuses vary significantly in size Keele has one of the largest integrated campuses in the UK at 215 hectares Residential Care site could be suitable for large scale residential care provision (e.g continuing care retirement communities), given desirable location, accessibility and catchment area Appropriateness = 4 Student Accommodation site could be suitable for student accommodation but only if co-located with new teaching provision Appropriateness = 2 Residential Care potential for a continuing care retirement community of up to 3 hectares (this does not include conventional housing for the elderly, which would be additional) Student Accommodation most likely scale of demand is zero. Attracting new campus to the site not considered viable. Residential care community would need to be delivered in parallel with other forms of residential development and ancillary uses. Very few residential care communities delivered in isolation from other new or established communities. Page 49

53 Non-Residential Public Sector (D1) Healthcare (excl. hospitals and nursing homes), crèche and nursery facilities, education, libraries, public exhibition halls, places of worship and law courts. Main location and policy drivers Population catchment areas Demographic characteristics Non residential care services tend to be more footloose with more mobile services offered (with care in the home being a key policy driver). Changing demography key consideration in future provision Historic and likely future locations in neighbouring areas Non residential public services are numerous and typically reflect population / settlement distribution Scale of likely demand for space in Sevenoaks as indicated in local evidence and policy, in next 15 years (1 = no demand 5 = considerable demand) Additional primary school places required in some existing schools. Demand = 3 No identified need for new secondary school provision though a new satellite Grammar school will be developed. Demand = 1 Youth Centres A non critical need for youth service hubs in various locations. Demand = 2 Social Services KCC Non critical need for adult social services community hubs. Demand = 1 Non critical need for improvements to Sevenoaks Medical Centre. Demand = 1 Scale of likely demand for space in Sevenoaks emerging from regional/wider market demands in next 15 years (1 = no demand 5 = considerable demand) Demand for nonresidential institutions mainly led by changes in quantum and demography of local populations. As such wider regional influences are less relevant. Demand = n/a Typical scale of development when seeking to develop a new location / destination Crèche / Nurseries up to 1,000sqm based upon 10sqm for 0-3 year olds and 20sqm for 0-8 year olds Youth Centre up to 1,000sqm Healthcare An average floorspace per GP is 130sqm, so a 5 GP surgery would see a floorspace of around 650sqm. Appropriateness in the context of Fort Halstead layout, landscape, position in the highways network etc (1 = highly inappropriate 5= highly appropriate ) Crèche/Nurseries/ Primary School - Remote unless used to support new residential population Appropriateness = 3 Secondary School Remote from main population nodes and no identified need Appropriateness = 1 Youth Centre evidence suggests that demand would be in existing settlements. Appropriateness = 2 Day care potential if co-located alongside significant residential development/new residential care facilities Appropriateness = 3 Healthcare small scale provision could be suitable depending on other land uses. Appropriateness = 4 Estimated maximum scale of demand (land take) that could materialise at Fort Halstead in next 15 years Education most likely zero hectares new capacity to be met in existing schools. Youth facilities most likely zero hectares with need met in existing settlements GP provision and day care provision possibly need for circa 2 hectares but with potential need to be integrated with residential institutions identified above. If some developer or occupier demand, what are the key delivery and viability issues? Any new GP provision only required (or deliverable) alongside any new residential community. Page 50

54 7. Conclusions & Short List Employment Opportunities Current Economic Position 7.1 Fort Halstead consists of 41 hectares of previously developed/developable land. It currently accommodates some 1, workers spread across Dstl, QinetiQ, Serco and a small number of other support functions. 7.2 An estimated 210 Fort Halstead workers reside in the district of Sevenoaks. Given the nature of Fort Halstead s occupiers and the configuration of the Sevenoaks economy, we would expect a further 60 jobs to be located in Sevenoaks off-site due to indirect and induced expenditure effects. 7.3 Dstl has outlined a phased departure in the period to 2017 which will certainly impact to some extent the Sevenoaks economy. However, relative to other major UK relocations and closures the economic impact will be somewhat diffused across a particularly wide impact area extending well beyond Sevenoaks. Of those Dstl employees who do currently reside in Sevenoaks (estimated at 150 staff) we would anticipate a high natural re-employment rate given their occupational profile, with limited (if any) noticeable impact on local unemployment rates. Immediate Future Economic Role of Fort Halstead 7.4 Our understanding is that QinetiQ propose to continue operations at Fort Halstead. All future on-site operations are likely to take place in two buildings: the existing X48 building and a new 3,300sqm office block. This will safeguard circa 200 jobs and will require an estimated 2-3 hectare plot. Some associated open space and landscaping will be required but the extent of this is not yet known. 7.5 The clear indication from QinetiQ is that their proposal to remain at Fort Halstead in the medium to longer term is based on the assumption that new neighbours will be secured for the site. They have no interest in the prospect of becoming the sole long term occupier of Fort Halstead. 7.6 Apart from building X48 all other buildings will be vacated after Dstl s departure and QinetiQ s on-site consolidation. A small proportion of these buildings have been constructed in the last 15 years but the majority of the accommodation pre-dates this period. Much of it is in the form of bespoke buildings designed for Dstl s operations. Very few, if any, of the premises to be vacated by Dstl and QinetiQ have any viable commercial future for employment use. With a largely redundant set of buildings post 2017 and a need to identify new neighbours for QinetiQ, there is a requirement to think strategically and creatively about future employment uses on the Fort Halstead site. 38 This is the total number of jobs. If expressed on a Full Time Equivalent (FTE) basis the figure would reduce slightly. Page 51

55 Sevenoaks Economy 7.7 The economic base of Sevenoaks has grown gradually over the last decade. Between 1999 and 2010 employment increased by around just 70 jobs per annum and demonstrates a lower growth rate than seen in the region. Jobs growth was witnessed in a variety of sectors; between 1999 and 2008 the sectors which grew most substantially were public administration (+1,800), construction (+1,000) and retail (+700). Between 2008 and 2010 the sectors which grew the most were employment agency activities(+2,800) and cleaning and landscaping services to buildings (+900). 7.8 Currently, many of the 49,300 jobs currently housed within Sevenoaks are those which would be expected to accompany a resident population of some 114,000, with significant volumes of employment in the retail and public and personal services sectors. 7.9 The data suggests Sevenoaks also has one of the highest concentrations of knowledge economy jobs in Kent with around 7,500 jobs in A large share of these (1,300 or 17%) are in scientific research and development posts, the majority at Fort Halstead. There are also notable concentrations of employment in head office and management consultancy activities (800), legal and accounting services (700), architectural and engineering activities (700), activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities (600) and computer programming and related activities (500) Apart from employment at Fort Halstead, knowledge economy employment tends to be focused in very small organisations. In 2008 around 40% of knowledge economy jobs were in businesses of 1 to 10 employees. There were only around 20 knowledge economy businesses with 50 employees and over in the district. Much of the knowledge economy appears to be located in Sevenoaks for either historical reasons or lifestyle decisions on the part of owners/managers Sevenoaks is a relatively open economic area, with the district experiencing high levels of both daily out and in-commuting, with a net balance of out-commuters of some 9,000 workers. Daily out commuting is influenced by the proximity of Sevenoaks to central London and a globally significant array of employers and occupations. Levels of economic inactivity/unemployment have remained relatively low and there has been no pressing need for more rapid employment growth in recent years. Employment Land Need 7.12 Various documents have been produced by Sevenoaks DC to inform their employment land policies. These include the 2007 Employment Land Review which identified employment land requirements for the period to 2026, plus a 2011 update using more recent forecasting data. The focus of this evidence is the conventional employment land markets of B1 office, B2 industrial and B8 warehousing accommodation, which taken together typically account for about 45% of employment in a local area Generally the employment land evidence does not show a need for substantial additional employment land provision in Sevenoaks, with the evidence reinforcing the headline economic data outlined above. In summary, the position is as follows: Page 52

56 B1 office/b1b & B1c markets. The evidence points to a very localised market, with limited historic take-up and strong competition from some established B1 locations in the wider M25 South market area for footloose investment. B1 take-up in the M25 South market has reduced in the last five years, as has out-of-town business park demand throughout the UK. In B1b/c markets, take-up has reduced in the c75 UK science and technology parks and large HQ/R&D campuses have been rationalised. In 2007, the Council s ELR suggested around 4.2 hectares of B1 space would be required between 2006 and 2026, falling to a maximum of 0.8 hectares in the 2011 ELR update. In either scenario it was envisaged demand could be met through small scale infill development. There is also an amount of currently vacant office stock (such as 160 London Road) which can help meet any identified demand. B2 industrial. Sevenoaks accommodates a largely local market. The overall picture in Sevenoaks, and the majority of adjoining locations, is of declining demand. The Council s latest ELR evidence states an overall reduction in demand of 4.5 hectares in the period to A decline in demand was also evident in the earlier 2007 ELR. B8 warehousing. The Council s 2011 ELR evidence forecasts positive demand for new B8 accommodation. The mid-point estimate is for an additional 5.2 hectares to Whilst the projection technique is unconventional, it is arguably a better reflection of need than the 2007 ELR which forecast declining demand. The ELR suggests that this need is unlikely to be met through intensification of existing sites and that some modest new employment land provision may be required. Broom Hill in Swanley has been identified within the current Allocations and Development Management DPD Supplementary Site Allocation Consultation (2012) as having the potential to provide 4 hectares of employment land able to respond to B8 demand. This site is located at Junction 3 of the M On the basis of the above, it is only in respect of the B8 warehousing market that Sevenoaks needs to identify a modest amount of additional employment land. The small net need for B1 accommodation will be met through smaller scale infill developments and the B2 market is forecast to be in gradual decline We have also reviewed the market for employment land requirements which may emerge from the other sectors which comprise the remaining 55% of a typical local economy. In summary, the position is as follows: High street retail and other retail markets. The Council s evidence base suggests the need for some additional provision in Sevenoaks Town Centre (1,700sqm convenience and 2,300sqm comparison) to 2026 and some demand for additional convenience floorspace in Swanley to New out of town provision is neither needed nor envisaged in policy terms, although there may be scope for additional specialist retail to complement existing provision (e.g. crafts, garden centre or nurseries). Hotel, leisure and tourism. This is a broad category of employment uses. The evidence suggests there is a need, and an opportunity, for new hotel provision in Sevenoaks. This need is particularly prevalent in relation to higher quality and boutique hotels, but is also evident in other market segments. Page 53

57 No major deficiencies have been identified in relation to local sports and leisure provision. There is broad policy support for new smaller scale tourism initiatives, and perceived potential for interpretation of Fort Halstead s historic role and assets. Residential institutions. This is a key category for local employment. The evidence points to expanding demand for care services for the elderly, alongside considerable growth in technology assisted home living. Several new extra care schemes have been permitted/constructed locally in recent years. In the hospital sector it is clear that investment will be orientated to developing existing facilities, with no need for new provision. Whilst there will be some increasing demand for new FE/HE provision (and associated accommodation) in the sub-region the prospects of securing investment of this nature for Sevenoaks are slim. Non-residential institutions. Most of the identified need within Council documents for enhanced education and health provision will be met in existing facilities and/or existing settlements. There is overlap here with any residential markets which may emerge at Fort Halstead (which is the subject of a separate research document). This may require a re-appraisal of the available evidence. Short List Opportunities to Consider 7.16 Each of the employment land categories above have been subjected to a systematic assessment of their potential for future demand at Fort Halstead. The assessment process covers factors such as the main locational and policy drivers affecting the category, scale of likely demand from both local and sub-regional/wider markets and the appropriateness of the category in the context of Fort Halstead s layout, landscape, and position in the highways network Crucially, the assessment process has sought to distinguish between those employment uses for which there is likely to be developer and occupier demand at Fort Halstead in the next 15 years and those for which there is not. For each of the opportunities that are identified we also comment on the likely deliverability and viability issues that would need to be considered if the opportunities were to be advanced As a result of the assessment process, five main opportunity areas have been identified at this stage: Opportunity 1 : QinetiQ Retention 7.19 Provision of a circa 2-3 hectare plot 39 to house an existing QinetiQ building (X48) and a new 3,300sqm office block. This will safeguard circa 200 high quality jobs at the Fort Halstead site. As noted earlier, QinetiQ have no interest in becoming the sole long term occupier of Fort Halstead and retention of QinetiQ would require other neighbours to help create a new sense of place and to provide natural surveillance. 39 As noted earlier, an additional amount of open space/landscaping may be required by QinetiQ, although the scale of this is not yet known. Page 54

58 Opportunity 2 : Quality Hotel Provision 7.20 There is a need for new hotel provision in Sevenoaks and Fort Halstead could be a suitable site. Given the characteristics of the site, the primary opportunity relates to provision of a higher quality or boutique hotel with adjoining spa and leisure facilities, although there is evidence of need within other hotel segments as well. CBRE s hotel specialists confirm there would potentially be market interest in opportunities of this nature, although any operator demand is likely to be dependent on provision of the appropriate up-front infrastructure and creation of what they would perceive as an attractive wider setting. Provision of a high quality hotel of circa 100 bedrooms is likely to require a circa 2-3 hectare plot depending on the nature of any formal/informal open space which would accompany it. Opportunity 3 : Cultural Interpretation 7.21 The favourable policy support for new smaller scale tourism initiatives and perceived potential for interpretation of Fort Halstead s historic role and assets could provide an opportunity for the site. A facility might make use of (the few) historic buildings on site and involve access to the historic Fort area. We have in mind the successful model of the Bletchley Park National Codes Centre near Milton Keynes. A new cultural tourism facility of this nature is likely to require circa 2 hectares (inclusive of access to the historic Fort area). Such use of the site would not be viable in isolation and would need to be delivered alongside a wider redevelopment of Fort Halstead. Opportunity 4 : Specialist Retail Provision 7.22 Whilst policy points to no need for additional out-of-town provision locally, there may be opportunities emerging from very specialist forms of retail provision that complement the high quality setting and landscape features of Fort Halstead. Opportunities may be open to secure some form of horticultural facility, garden centre or craft related provision. A typical facility of this nature might require a plot area of circa 2 hectares. As with the hotel opportunity, any operator demand for specialist retail provision is likely to be dependent on provision of the appropriate up-front infrastructure. Opportunity 5 : Residential Care Institutions 7.23 Demographic factors will continue to drive demand over the next thirty years in relation to supported residential accommodation targeted at older age groups. CBRE s residential research team see this is a key growing market segment, and one which has significant employment requirements. There is potential to develop some form of recognised continuing care retirement community (CCRC) at Fort Halstead providing a full spectrum of accommodation and care services, including independent retirement living through to nursing facilities providing full 24 hour care. Analysis suggests that a circa 120 unit scheme, including a mix of nursing units and extra care apartments would require land of up to 3 hectares. Use of this type would have to be combined with a wider re-use of the site and integrated with other residential units and associated amenities Research is also ongoing into any requirements Hadlow College may have in the future and whether this would give rise to any opportunities for Fort Halstead. Page 55

59 7.25 We will also continue to monitor the potential for some form of smaller scale (serviced) office provision at Fort Halstead (say 1-2 hectares) as part of a long term mixed use solution for the site. The evidence is clear (see page 52) that a new large scale B1 destination at Fort Halstead is not realistic or viable, and that the scale of demand that will come forward from within the local B1 office market is modest. However, we are aware that even a small B1 scheme could house a substantial number of good quality jobs and as such we will continue to explore the viability of such a proposal The ability of the above opportunities to co-exist at Fort Halstead requires further investigation in the coming months, as does the potential integration of these land uses. If all of the above five opportunities were accommodated in combination they could require a total land take of some 13 hectares and yield in the region of 485 jobs on-site (see Table 7-1). Delivery of these 485 jobs will be dependent on creating the right infrastructure and wider setting to capture the forecast developer and occupier demand. Putting in place this infrastructure will be costly (with the cost alone of demolishing and decontaminating the site likely to run to many millions) and will require substantial cross subsidisation in some shape from other further viable development on site. Opportunity 1: QinetiQ Retention 2: Quality Hotel Provision 3: Tourism and Leisure Markets 4: Specialist Retail Provision 5: Residential Care Institutions Table 7-1 Indicative On-site Job Estimates Associated with Short List Opportunities Full Time Equivalent Full Time Part Time Total Comments Jobs Based on assumed 200 members of staff being retained on site Based on a 100 bedroom hotel and application of 1 FTE per 1.25 bedrooms (HCA, Employment Densities Guide, 2010) Based on positions at Bletchley Park which include tour guides, education team members, customer service team etc. Managerial staff have also been included Based on number of employees in 4 garden centres including 2 in Sevenoaks (Polhill and Coolings Garden Centres) Based on 80 bed care home plus around 40 extra care apartments. Information for care home employees is sourced from Regulation and Quality Improvement Authority, Staffing Guidance for Residential Care Homes, 2009, plus estimates of managerial staff, caterers, cleaners etc Total Note: Figures are rounded to the nearest five and therefore may not sum In addition to the above, if a new residential community were to be delivered at Fort Halstead then there would be a need for some ancillary local retail and related provision. This would require around a further 1-2 hectares of land. At this stage the most likely form of any new ancillary provision at Fort Halstead could be in relation to small scale retail, GP services and small scale day care provision, although this will require further testing once the parameters of any new residential community become clear. Page 56

60 Land Uses to Discount 7.28 The assessment process has also helped in identifying those employment land markets where there are unlikely to be deliverable opportunities for Fort Halstead. It is proposed these uses, as set out below, do not feature in any ongoing testing of options: New B1 office destination. As indicated above, the evidence points to a very localised demand profile with no identified need for new allocations within either the Council s 2007 or 2011 Employment Land Review. Demand within the wider M25 South market has reduced in the last five years, as has out-of-town business park demand throughout the UK (where the average vacancy rate is now at a 16 year high). Footloose B1 demand that does exist will migrate to a number of well established destinations, a number of which are themselves re-considering the deliverability of their B1 allocations. Our experience is that to create a new B1 destination requires a minimum of 8-10 hectares to develop profile and critical mass. It is concluded that there is neither a medium nor longer term demand for this scale of provision at Fort Halstead. We are aware that the previous 2008 Hines proposals contained some 65,000 sqm to 80,000 sqm of B1 office space at Fort Halstead (likely to require in the region of 6-8 hectares of land). This was a view taken before the full onset of the post-2007 recessionary period, and was one that, as far as we can establish, was not subjected to any detailed market testing on its viability or deliverability. B1bc R&D/technology uses. Whilst the anchor of a long term QinetiQ presence is to be welcomed, it is unlikely to serve as a catalyst to grow an R&D/technology cluster. Data from the UK Science Parks Association (UKSPA) shows that employment levels and the number of tenant companies at UK science and technology parks has declined steadily post 2007 and points to a large number of shelved/delayed development schemes. The rationalisation of several large HQ R&D campuses is also releasing a large volume of space into the market, such as at Pfizer at Sandwich. Historically science and technology park build out rates have not been particularly rapid, even in a period of relatively buoyant national economic performance and the availability of public funding (on which many have been reliant). Overall, the market for footloose investment is extremely competitive, with any demand that does materialise likely to migrate to a number of better placed R&D/technology clusters elsewhere in the M25 South market and beyond. General B2 industrial. All the available evidence points to a gradual long term erosion in the B2 industrial land requirement locally, following national trends. The Council s latest ELR evidence states an overall net reduction in demand of 4.5 hectares in the period to Any replacement demand that does materialise (where existing manufacturing/industrial firms upgrade accommodation) will be adequately accommodated within existing industrial areas. B8 warehousing. Whilst there has been some local growth in recent years and the Council s ELR forecasts a net local need for 5.2 hectares of B8 space in the period to 2026, it is not considered that Fort Halstead is an appropriate location to meet this need. Highways/HGV access would be sub-optimal in the eyes of many B8 occupiers Page 57

61 and the site does not lend itself to the creation of the larger scale B8 units which occupiers increasingly demand (both in terms of creating suitably large development plots and height requirements). Wider sub-regional need would migrate to more established B8 locations, particularly around Dartford. Dartford is regarded as a national occupier location, with demand also migrating further into Kent along the M2 and M20 as well as M20 towards Ashford. Any substantive retail component. Policy is clear that there is neither a need nor appetite for new out-of-town provision in Sevenoaks. Even if the policy climate was more favourable, larger scale retail occupiers are unlikely to be attracted to the site due to the difficulties in building substantial and sustained footfall. As noted earlier, there may however be demand/opportunity for some form of highly specialist retail use at Fort Halstead that integrates with, and makes use of, the landscape. Local leisure markets. No major deficiencies were identified through the research on local leisure and sports provision, with the district well provided for. Depending on the nature of any hotel provision that were to come forward at Fort Halstead, there may be some new leisure facilities that can be utilised by local residents. On-site residential institutions in the form of hospitals and HE/FE provision and associated student accommodation. On the former, all new investment is to be targeted at improving existing facilities. On the latter, the prospect of securing investment from the FE/HE sector at Fort Halstead is considered slim, although dialogue is continuing with Hadlow College on any needs they may have. Most of the identified need within Council policies (for additional primary school provision, and for youth and adult services) will be met in existing facilities and/or existing settlements. The exception, depending on what materialises at Fort Halstead in the form of any complementary development, could be in relation to local crèche, GP services and small scale day care provision. Next Steps 7.29 The next steps in the process of determining the appropriate scale and likely type of employment uses at Fort Halstead is to engage with selected stakeholders (including the Council and QinetiQ) on the following topics: Are the short listed opportunities the right ones? Is the overall scale of employment land uses appropriate? Are we correct to discount the options we have? What further non-employment based development is required to achieve a successful, viable and deliverable scheme? 7.30 The material is also to be combined with all other aspects of baseline research (landscape, transport, residential research etc) in preparation for the main phase of stakeholder engagement and high level master-planning. Page 58

62 7.31 It is clear, having researched all possible future employment uses, that no single use/single occupier strategy is viable for what is a very large scale site. As such a mixed use approach needs to be pursued, comprising a number of different employment uses and complementary development. The success or otherwise of a mixed use development will be dependent on the successful masterplanning of Fort Halstead, taking full advantage of the setting of the site. Page 59

63 8. Updated Employment Proposals - August 2012 Stakeholder Consultation 8.1 The CBRE-led team has engaged in a wide programme of stakeholder consultation in the period from May 2012 onwards. The consultation programme has included: Initial public exhibitions in May, which were attended by over 350 people, plus around 100 people working at Fort Halstead attended a consultation event for staff. A Community Planning Weekend held in July, which was attended by around 100 people. This was followed by a feedback session attended by approximately 70 people. Meetings with third party stakeholders, including Kent Wildlife Trust and Kent Downs AONB. Meetings with senior officers and members at Sevenoaks District Council both ahead of and following each round of public consultation. 8.2 One of the primary aims of the stakeholder consultation programme has been to test the findings of this Employment Opportunities Report and to gather further views on possible employment uses for the Fort Halstead site. Main Messages on Employment Uses 8.3 Stakeholders have expressed a number of opinions on employment opportunities for the Fort Halstead site, with the main points being: Introduce more B1 office and workshop provision into the vision for the site, to include some new serviced office provision. This would, it was felt, help to retain and attract smaller scale, high value businesses in the district. Remove ideas for a new care home for the elderly, pending further research. The view was that Sevenoaks DC is about to embark on a number of pieces of important research on the future housing needs of the elderly and it was premature to suggest that there was an opportunity for additional provision at Fort Halstead. Remove ideas for site specific retail provision. The April 2012 employment opportunities report suggested there was potential for some form of specialist retail provision, perhaps linked to horticulture, although this view was not generally supported via stakeholder feedback. The idea of some smaller scale ancillary retail provision to accompany any new residential community at Fort Halstead was however welcomed. 8.4 There was strong support for a good quality hotel development at Fort Halstead expressed in the consultation. Page 60

64 8.5 Stakeholders also welcomed ideas for some form of visitor facility to enable others to understand the historic role and function of Fort Halstead, but stressed that this should be a relatively small scale facility. 8.6 In parallel to the consultation programme, QinetiQ has examined further its likely future land-use requirements on the Fort Halstead site. At this point in time, the best estimate is that QinetiQ will require in the region of 7.7 hectares of land for future operational requirements. This figure is somewhat higher than the 2-3 hectare requirement predicted in the April 2012 version of this report. The 7.7 hectares will enable QinetiQ to retain building X48, a number of other bespoke existing buildings and develop a new build block to meet their future operational requirements. August 2012 Masterplan Proposed Employment Uses 8.7 The CBRE-led team has acknowledged the points identified above and sought to accommodate them in the draft masterplan for the Fort Halstead site. Specifically the team has: Introduced a B1 component to the development mix. The draft masterplan includes proposals for up-to 3.2 hectares of B1 development 40, which could include a mix of circa 16,000m 2 of offices, serviced offices and workshops. Increased the land required to accommodate QinetiQ s retention on site to 7.7 hectares. Previously it was thought 2-3 hectares may suffice. Retained the proposal for a quality new hotel/spa facility, which is now assumed to require a site of some 2.4 hectares. Retained proposals for a cultural/heritage facility to celebrate the history of Fort Halstead, which is assumed to require a site of some 2.7 hectares 41. Retained proposals for a new local centre to accompany a new residential community. This local centre, based on an assumed plot of circa 1.5 hectares, is likely to include ancillary retail, nursery/crèche facility and house the estate management office. Removed ideas for new care home provision at Fort Halstead, pending further research, and the proposal for new site-specific retail provision. 8.8 A summary of the proposed employment uses are provided in Table 8.1 (over page). In total the proposed employment uses accommodate some 17.5 hectares of the Fort Halstead site. 8.9 On-site employment levels would be significant, with the development mix likely to yield in the region of 1,290 actual jobs (or 1,130 when expressed on a Full Time Equivalent (FTE) basis). This predicted jobs count is in excess of the figure proposed in the April 2012 report (485 actual jobs/430 FTEs). It is also higher than the current jobs estimate at Fort Halstead (estimated at 1,200 actual jobs/1,115 FTE jobs). 40 Subject to final review of QinetiQ requirements (see Table 8.1). 41 Part of this 2.7 hectares is the historic fort structure, and falls out-with the estimated 41 hectares of previously developed land. Page 61

65 Table 8.1 Proposed Fort Halstead Employment Uses (August 2012) Source of Jobs Land Take(hectares) FTE Jobs (and assumptions) Number of Actual Jobs (and assumptions) QinetiQ 7.7Ha 240 FTEs. Assumes 90% FT Serviced offices, Workshops and studios Plus potentially a further 1Ha (see below) Possible 3.2Ha Comprises 2.2Ha, plus a further 1Ha which is subject to a final review of QinetiQ s requirements B1a : 5,000sqm 18sqm per job = 278 jobs (FTE) This equates to 5,850sqm GEA based upon a 2 storey building = footprint of 2,925sqm B1c : 5,000sqm 32sqm per job = 156 jobs (FTE) This equates to 5,850sqm GEA based upon a single storey building = footprint of 5,850sqm Total built footprint is therefore 8,775sqm which based upon a 40% site coverage requires a site area of 2.2ha. 250 jobs Allows for predicted growth from 200 existing jobs. Assume 25% of B1a/B1c workers are part time. Total delivery of circa 435 jobs If an additional 1Ha of land were safeguarded the following assumptions could be made: B1a : 6,000sqm 18sqm per job = 333 jobs This equates to 7,000sqm GEA based upon a 2 storey building = footprint of 3,500sqm Total built footprint is therefore 3,500sqm which based upon a 40% site coverage requires a site area of 0.9ha. Hotel Spa 2.4Ha 80 FTE jobs. Assumes a 120 bed hotel with associated gym, spa, restaurant facilities. HCA Employment Density Guide states 1 employee per 1.25 bedrooms for quality hotels with facilities, and suggests this is an FTE figure. Page 62 If FTE jobs = 435, then actual jobs = 500 jobs. If FTE jobs = 333, then actual jobs = 380 jobs. Assume 50% of hotel/leisure workers are part time. If FTE jobs = 80, then actual jobs = 105 jobs.

66 Continuation of Table 8.1 Proposed Fort Halstead Employment Uses (August 2012) Heritage Attraction 2.7Ha 5 jobs (total not FTE) Assume 50% of heritage attraction workers are part time. Village Centre, Children s Nursery and Estate Management If FTE jobs = 5, then actual jobs = 7 jobs. 1.5Ha Assuming 50% part time = 35 FTE jobs Approx 45 actual jobs based on likely mix of uses. TOTAL 17.5Ha 1,128 FTE jobs 1,287 actual jobs Page 63

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