Northern Kentucky/Greater Cincinnati by the Numbers

Transcription

1 Vol. 4, No. 4 Fourth Quarter 2011 Janet Harrah, Senior Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Development, Northern Kentucky University Phone: * harrahj1@nku.edu Website: Published quarterly, Northern Kentucky/Greater Cincinnati by the Numbers provides information, research and analysis on the economic and demographic trends of the Cincinnati metropolitan area and the greater northern Kentucky region. For a free subscription visit our website. In this issue: New Data Access Points NKY Real Estate Trends Fourth Quarter 2011 Realtor s Opinion: While home sales have improved in the second half of 2011, home values have continued to decline Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates Small Area Health Insurance Coverage Compensation increased in 2010 but still below pre-recession levels New Data Access Points CEAD has been working to improve and coordinate the collection, analysis and dissemination of data for Northern Kentucky so that policy makers, researchers, business and industry professionals, and anyone interested in the data and facts can get the information they need quickly and easily in the format they require. With support from the Duke Energy Foundation, Fidelity Investments, the Haile/US Bank Foundation and Vision 2015, the Center for Economic Analysis and Development has launched See us on Facebook! The Center for Economic Analysis and Development is happy to announce that you can access our economic blogs, media posts and latest data updates on Facebook. Follow the link and like us on Facebook or copy and paste the following URL. Development/

2 New Data Analysis Tools Released Occupational Look-Up Tool How many welders work in the Cincinnati metro area? How much do computer programmers earn? The answers to these questions can be found using the CEAD s latest data analysis tool. The Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) program of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics produces employment and wage estimates for over 800 occupations. These are estimates of the number of people employed in certain occupations, and estimates of the wages paid to them. Self-employed persons are not included in the estimates. The CEAD has developed a quick and easy, Excel-based look up tool to access these data for the Cincinnati MSA, which can be accessed at: American Community Survey, 2010 Look-Up Tool The Center for Economic Analysis and Development (CEAD) at Northern Kentucky University is excited to announce the release of the Northern Kentucky American Community Survey Look-Up Tool. The American Community Survey (ACS) is an ongoing survey by the U.S. Census Bureau that provides up-todate information about the social and economic needs of your community. The ACS shows how people live our education, housing, jobs and more. The survey asks about age; sex; race; family and relationships; income and benefits; health insurance; education; veteran status; disabilities; where you work and how you get there; and where you live and how much you pay for some living essentials. All this detail is combined into statistics that are used to help guide the investment and distribution of $400 billion in federal and state funds each year. These data inform decisions on everything from the size of school lunch programs to the need for new schools, hospitals, and emergency services. The American Community Survey created to eliminate the need for the long form in the 2010 Census and beyond, includes data that are no longer included in the decennial Census. In December 2011 the Census Bureau released the latest set of 5-year ( ) American Community Survey estimates. The release provides timely and detailed estimates on 72 social, economic, housing and demographic topics for all communities. A new set of 5-year estimates will be released every year, covering the most recent five-year period. The Northern Kentucky American Community Survey Look-Up Tool is an Excel based database with easy to use selection options. Covering all the cities and counties in Kentucky, Ohio and Indiana, the Northern Kentucky American Community Survey Look-Up Tool provides detailed demographic data within seconds. To access the lookup tool click on the link:

3 NKY Real Estate Trends Fourth Quarter 2011 The real estate trends for Northern Kentucky were mixed in Total sales for the year were down 1.7% or 66 sales. However, the decline came in the first half of the year. In the third quarter, sales rose 18.6% yearover-year followed by a 23.8% increase in the fourth quarter. As shown in the graph, this pattern of a second half rebound from 2010 was consistent across Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties. Home price trends were also mixed. The median price of homes sold in Boone County increased 0.3% for the year while declining 0.8% in Campbell and 4.2% in Kenton. The average days on market increased in all three counties.

4 4 th Quarter and 2011 Annual Home Sales by Price and Days on Market for Northern Kentucky Boone County Number of Sales Average Price Median Price Days on Market 4qtr , , qtr 2011* , , Level Change 35 2, Percent Change 12.2% 1.5% 0.5% 9.8% Annual , , , Annual , , , Level Change -45 2, Percent Change -3.2% 1.4% 0.3% 8.7% Campbell County Number of Sales Average Price Median Price Days on Market 4qtr , , qtr 2011* , , Level Change 50 10,218 8, Percent Change 26.3% 6.8% 7.1% -11.2% Annual , , Annual , , Level Change 29 10, Percent Change 3.3% 7.6% -0.8% 11.5% Kenton County Number of Sales Average Price Median Price Days on Market 4qtr , , qtr 2011* , , Level Change 87-13,006-9,025 6 Percent Change 33.6% -8.6% -6.9% 8.1% Annual , , , Annual , , , Level Change -50-3,650-5, Percent Change -3.1% -2.7% -4.2% 13.8% *preliminary estimates subject to revision based on data downloaded on February 7, 2012 Data source: Northern Kentucky Board of Real Estate MLS

5 Realtor s Opinion: While home sales have improved in the second half of 2011, home values have continued to decline By Ronda Schweitzer (schweitzer2@nku.edu), Marketing Analyst, CEAD and Licensed Real Estate Agent, Ken Perry Realty The numbers for Northern Kentucky home sales improved in the second half of After declining 3 percent in 1 st quarter and 28 percent in 2 nd quarter, sales increased in the 3rd quarter by 19 percent compared to the same time last year. The market continued to improve in the 4 th quarter with an increase in sales volume of 23 percent. This is definitely a good sign that things are headed in the right direction for the Northern Kentucky real estate market; however, with the good news comes the bad. Home values continued to decline as much as 18 percent in some areas of Northern Kentucky compared to their prior peak values. The losses in home values were not exclusive to certain neighborhoods; however, some area fared better than others. While examples don t represent the entire market, they can be illustrative. For example, a new home built in one neighborhood in 2004 was valued at $301,040, and had a peak value prior to 2006 of $309,100. This same home sold in the fall of 2011 for $265,000, a 14 percent loss in home value from its peak in Another home that peaked at $325,000 in 2006 was sold for $268,000 in December of 2011, a loss of 18 percent in home value. As stated previously, these losses are not exclusive to one type of neighborhood and none of the examples was a foreclosure. Homes that sold between the $140,000 and $150,000 at the peak in 2006 are now averaging $121,000 to $128,000, an average loss of 17 percent in home values. What does this mean for the home seller? If you purchased your home prior to 2003, you should be in good shape; however, if you purchased your home near or at the peak value of 2006 or during the decline, your home may be worth less than what you paid for it. For instance, a home that sold in 2008 for $283,000 was put on the market in 2011 and sold for $261,600, an 8 percent loss in resale value. If a home is upside down on its mortgage relative to its value, refinancing it may be impossible. With low mortgage rates and reduced pricing, the homebuyers have the advantage in this market. Foreclosures and declining home values have created a shortage in property tax revenues that have forced some city and county planners to make cuts in order to balance budgets. This trend is likely to continue as some homeowners are filing appeals with the county Property Valuation Administrator (PVA) to have their property tax values reduced to match the current market value. It is impossible to determine how long it will take home values to rebound; however, it is likely that increases in home values will track with improvements in the unemployment picture.

6 Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates Released in November, the Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) produced by the U.S. Census Bureau combine data from administrative records, intercensal population estimates, and the decennial census with direct estimates from the American Community Survey to provide consistent and reliable single-year estimates. The main objective of the SAIPE program is to provide timely, reliable estimates of income and poverty statistics for the administration of federal programs and the allocation of federal funds to local jurisdictions. Some state and local programs also use SAIPE income and poverty estimates to distribute funds and manage programs. Highlights In 2009 the Cincinnati MSA population totalled 2.1 million with 267,700 or 12.6% of the population living in poverty. In 2009, the poverty rate for children under 18 years of age was 17.5% compared to 11% for adults 18 years and over. In 2009, the percentage of persons living in poverty, in general, was higher in the more rural counties of the metro area. On the other hand, the number of persons in living in poverty was generally much higher in the urban counties of the metro area. Over the five years between 2005 and 2009, poverty in the metro area increased faster than population growth. Population increased on average 0.6% annually while poverty increased on average 3.1%. These data are available in an Excel file for all counties in Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio online at: NKYbyTheNumbers.nku.edu.

7 Small Area Health Insurance Coverage The Census Bureau's Small Area Health Insurance Estimates (SAHIE) program produces estimates of health insurance coverage for states and all counties. Data are available for years 2005 through 2009, as well as 2000, for age, sex, and income categories at the county-level. Highlights In 2009, there were approximately 1.9 million people in the Cincinnati MSA with nearly 248,000 or 13.4% lacking health insurance coverage led by Hamilton County with nearly 100,000 people lacking coverage. In 2009, the percentage of persons without health insurance coverage, in general, was higher in the more rural counties of the metro area. On the other hand, the number of persons without health insurance coverage was generally much higher in the urban counties of the metro area. Over the past five years, 2005 to 2009, the number of persons without health insurance coverage increased 19,100 or 1%. These data are available in an Excel file for all counties in Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio online at NKYbyTheNumbers.nku.edu.

8 Compensation increased in 2010 but still below pre-recession levels The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released estimates of 2010 compensation by industry by county in mid-december. Compensation is the sum of wage and salary disbursements and supplements to wages and salaries. Supplements to wages and salaries consist of employer contributions for government social insurance and employer contributions for employee pension and insurance funds. Compensation is reported by place of work. Compensation in the Cincinnati metro area totaled $57.5 billion in 2010 up 1.8% from 2009 s $56.5 billion, an increase of $1 billion. During the same period, compensation in the metropolitan portion of the United States increased 2.2%. A comparison to Cincinnati s peers shows the region s growth over the past decade ranked 10 th out of 12 with an increase of 27.1% compared to Raleigh s number 1 rank with an increase of 49.95% and Cleveland s number 12 rank with an increase of 15.4%. During the same period, the metropolitan portion of the United States saw compensation increase by 33.01%. Cincinnati s compensation last peaked in 2008 at $58.3 billion. The same is true for its peers. Among the 12 metropolitan areas, only four including Austin, Pittsburgh, Columbus and Raleigh have recovered and surpassed their 2008 compensation levels. Charlotte still shy of its 2008 peak by 4.29% and St. Louis still shy of its 2008 peak by 7.01% have the most ground to make up to recoup their recession losses. Table 1: Compensation for selected metropolitan statistical areas Compensation in thousands of dollars Percent change from preceding period Area U.S. Metropolitan Portion 6,986,204,172 7,137,036, Austin, TX 45,320,062 47,560, Charlotte NC-SC 49,609,534 51,354, Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN 56,462,509 57,498, Cleveland, OH 56,191,888 57,390, Columbus, OH 51,449,658 52,449, Denver, CO 81,259,988 82,545, Indianapolis, IN 49,027,778 50,246, Louisville, KY-IN 31,195,934 31,712, Minneapolis, MN-WI 109,235, ,260, Pittsburgh, PA 62,635,007 64,555, Raleigh, NC 28,778,641 29,760, St. Louis, MO-IL 76,844,813 77,177,

9 Below is a summary of the compensation trends by county size released by the BEA. Table 2 shows total 2010 compensation levels for each Cincinnati metro county and its BEA size category. Table 2: Compensation and size category for Cincinnati MSA component counties State County 2010 Compensation BEA Size Category Ohio Hamilton 32,462,223 Large Ohio Butler 7,783,561 Medium Ohio Warren 3,986,999 Medium Kentucky Boone 3,797,711 Medium Kentucky Kenton 3,688,644 Medium Ohio Clermont 2,655,942 Medium Kentucky Campbell 1,298,352 Medium Indiana Dearborn 720,583 Small Ohio Brown 380,351 Small Kentucky Grant 201,401 Small Indiana Franklin 176,939 Small Kentucky Gallatin 111,360 Small Kentucky Pendleton 109,468 Small Indiana Ohio 65,298 Small Kentucky Bracken 59,240 Small Compensation in large counties Large counties counties with at least $10 billion in total compensation represent 5 percent of the 3,113 counties in the U.S., but account for almost two-thirds of total national compensation. In these 170 large counties: Total compensation grew by 2.2 percent in 2010, ranging from 9.8 percent in Santa Clara County, California to -4.3 percent in San Mateo County, California Increases in the finance and insurance sector and the professional, scientific, and technical services sector were the largest contributors to the growth in 2010 total compensation The professional, scientific, and technical services sector represented the largest share of 2010 total compensation at 10.9 percent Average annual compensation per job grew by 2.9 percent in 2010, ranging from $46,438 in El Paso County, Texas to $116,047 in New York County (Manhattan), New York

10 Compensation in medium counties Medium counties counties with total compensation of at least $1 billion and less than $10 billion represent 22 percent of all U.S. counties, and account for 26 percent of total national compensation. In these 682 medium counties: Total compensation grew by 2.1 percent in 2010, ranging from 44.8 percent in Williams County, North Dakota to percent in Maury County, Tennessee Increases in health care and social assistance and federal government were the largest contributors to the growth in 2010 total compensation The health care and social assistance sector represented the largest share of 2010 total compensation at 12.7 percent Average annual compensation per job grew by 2.4 percent in 2010, ranging from $33,333 in Sevier County, Tennessee to $105,474 in North Slope Borough, Alaska Compensation in small counties Small counties counties with total compensation of less than $1 billion represents the remaining 73 percent of all U.S. counties, but account for only 8 percent of total national compensation. In these 2,261 small counties: Total compensation increased by 2.1 percent in 2010, ranging from 69.2 percent in Mountrail County, North Dakota to percent in Trimble County, Kentucky Increases in durable-goods manufacturing and health care and social assistance were the largest contributors to the growth in 2010 total compensation The local government sector represented the largest share of 2010 total compensation at 17.2 percent Average annual compensation per job grew by 2.8 percent in 2010, ranging from $28,618 in Keweenaw County, Michigan to $101,431 in Eureka County, Nevada