Moody s Special Comment Corporate Finance Table of Contents: Moody's Financial MetricsTM Summary I Data and Meth odology
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1 Special Comment Moody s Corporate Finance December 2007 Table of Contents: Summary 1 I Data and Methodology 3 II Metrics by Rating Category Aggregated Across All Industries 3 III Industry Study 5 III.1 EBITA / Average Assets 6 III.2 EBITA / Interest Expense 7 III.3 EBITA Margin 8 III.4 Operating Margin 9 III.5 (FFO + Interest Expense) / Interest Expense 10 III.6 FFO / Debt 11 III.7 Retained Cash Flow / Net Debt 12 III.8 Debt / EBITDA 13 III.9 Debt / Book Capitalization 14 III.10 CAPEX / Depreciation 15 III.11 Revenue Volatility 16 IV Discussion 17 Appendix A Detailed Distributions by Credit Metric 20 Appendix B Definition of Credit Ratios 31 Appendix C Definition of Industry Aggregates 32 References 34 Moody s Related Research 34 Analyst Contacts: New York Jennifer Tennant Associate Analyst 0 Albert Metz VP - Senior Credit Officer 0 Richard Cantor Managing Director Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations: December 2007 Summary This paper outlines key financial ratios across industries for each broad rating category for global non-financial non-utility corporations. The global category includes EMEA, Asia and the Americas and the ratios are based on the most recent fiscal year-end data. In addition to presenting these ratios by each rating and industry combination, we also focus on the Baa-rated issuers to deepen our analysis. The underlying data are taken from Moody s Financial Metrics, a data and analytics platform that provides as-reported and adjusted financial data, ratios, models and interactive rating methodologies. The adjustments are described in detail in Moody s Approach to Global Standard Adjustments in the Analysis of Financial Statements for Non-Financial Corporations Parts I, II and III. A companion spreadsheet containing the data presented in this report is available on the Moody s Financial Metrics homepage, (Click here to view file) This Credit Analysis provides an in-depth discussion of credit rating(s) for Moody's Financial Metrics Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations and should be read in conjunction with Moody s most recent Credit Opinion and rating information available on Moody's website.
2 The metrics presented are: EBITA / Average Assets EBITA / Interest Expense EBITA Margin (FFO + Interest Expense) / Interest Expense FFO / Debt RCF / Debt Debt / EBITDA Debt / Book Capitalization Operating Margin CAPEX / Depreciation Expense Revenue Volatility These eleven ratios provide a useful and foundational set of metrics for comparative analysis, with broad applications both across regions and, pertinent to this study, across industries. Combinations of these ratios, sometimes further modified by non-public data, are used in our rating methodologies in conjunction with industry-specific measures and subjective judgments. The definitions of the ratios are presented in Appendix B. We stress however that this report is not intended to describe Moody's rating process. Ratio analysis is but one part of Moody's analytical process. Qualitative and forward-looking considerations are also important. Interested readers are referred to Moody's rating methodologies for detailed discussions of our analytical approach and core ratios for each industry. When Moody's does analyze financial ratios, it uses a multivariate approach. As a result, a simple monotonic relationship between ratings and any single ratio should not generally be expected at the industry level. Section I of the report describes details of the data and methodology. Section II presents a brief review of the distribution of these metrics in the aggregate by rating category - that is, without regard to industry classification. Results for all Baa rated issuers by industry are presented in Section III, with subsections devoted to each of the eleven metrics. Section IV contains some brief discussion and analysis. Each exhibit in Appendix A focuses on a single financial metric and shows how its median values vary across industries and across rating categories. Definitions of the ratios are provided in Appendix B, while descriptions of the industry aggregates are presented in Appendix C. Our analysis shows the following: In the aggregate, there exists a strong monotonic relationship between these metrics and ratings at least from Aa to Caa-C. o o Revenue Volatility is essentially monotonic in the direction expected, with the notable exception of Aaa issuers which have relatively high volatility. We note that this is based on a total sample size of 5 issuers, and may be nothing more than a numerical artifact. This small sample affects virtually all of the metrics. Similarly, the median Operating Margin, EBITA Margin, EBITA / Average Assets, (FFO + Interest Expense) / Interest Expense are somewhat lower for Aaa than Aa issuers; this may again be an artifact of the very small Aaa sample. Industries with consistently better-than-average metrics for Baa rated issuers include: o o o Metals & Mining, Oil & Gas, and Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals. 2 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
3 Industries with consistently weaker-than-average metrics for Baa issuers include: o o o Aerospace & Defense, Media, and Retail & Distribution. The evidence suggests that more intrinsically risky industries are required to achieve better credit ratios to obtain a given rating. Put simply, those industries with more volatile revenues tend to be the same as those with otherwise better credit metrics. This result is consistent with prior research. 1 I Data and Methodology Financial data for this study are taken from the most recently available fiscal year-end filings through Moody's Financial Metrics. The metrics that we study include measures of coverage, leverage, cash flow-to-debt, profitability and revenue stability. Please consult Appendix B and the references for a detailed discussion and definitions. All the issuers in the sample are rated by Moody's. The reported ratings refer specifically to the issuer's senior unsecured rating or, in the absence of such a rating, its estimated senior unsecured rating as of August 1, If a baseline credit assessment (BCA) exists for the issuer, it is used in place of the senior unsecured rating. Government-Related Issuers (GRIs) are excluded from the sample. Industry classifications are based on proprietary Moody's sector assignments. For descriptions, please see Appendix C. II Metrics by Rating Category Aggregated Across All Industries In this section we examine some of the properties of these metrics in the aggregate, that is, without regard to industrial classification. In all cases, the statistics we report are medians. We consider the distribution of these metrics by broad rating category. Exhibit 1 summarizes our findings. We make the following observations: Five metrics are strictly monotonic with ratings: o CAPEX / Depreciation, EBITA / Interest Expense and FFO / Debt monotonically increase with ratings, as expected. Debt / Book Capitalization and Debt / EBITDA monotonically decrease. Most metrics are very nearly monotonic with ratings: o Median Operating Margin, EBITA Margin, EBITA / Average Assets, (FFO + Interest Expense) / Interest Expense, are each less for Aaa than Aa issuers, though this may be an artifact of the small Aaa sample. Otherwise, these metrics behave as expected. RCF / Net Debt is higher for A than Aa but otherwise is monotonic. Only one metric has a weak relationship to ratings: o Revenue Volatility is greater for Aaa issuers, which of course is a small sample, and is not strictly increasing across speculative-grade ratings. 1 See, for example, The Distribution of Common Financial Ratios by Rating and Industry for North American Non-Financial Corporations, Moody s Special Comment, July Please see Moody s Senior Ratings Algorithm & Estimated Senior Ratings, July 2005 for a discussion of estimated senior unsecured ratings. 3 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
4 Exhibit 1: Aggregate Metrics by Rating Category EBITA/ Average AT Operating Margin EBITA Margin EBITA/ IntExp (FFO + IntExp)/ IntExp Aaa 15.3% 14.9% 14.8% Aa 15.6% 17.0% 17.5% A 12.5% 13.8% 15.2% Baa 10.1% 12.6% 13.9% Ba 9.6% 12.2% 13.4% B 7.3% 8.5% 9.4% Caa-C 2.0% 1.6% 2.4% Exhibit 1: Aggregate Metrics by Rating Category Debt/ EBITDA Debt/ BookCap FFO/ Debt RCF/ NetDebt CAPEX/ DepExp Aaa % 117.3% 96.3% Aa % 68.4% 38.4% A % 43.8% 38.7% Baa % 29.2% 27.7% Rev Vol Ba % 21.8% 20.0% B % 12.0% 11.7% Caa-C % 4.3% 4.6% Source: Moody's Financial Metrics 4 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
5 III Industry Study In this section, we study these financial metrics by industry. We compare ratios for Baa-rated issuers only. We do this not only to make the presentation tractable, but also because not all industries are represented in all rating categories. For instance, only six industries are represented in the Aaa category, and only ten in the Aa. The Baa category is the best represented investment-grade rating category. Exhibit 2 lists the industries covered in this report and the number of Baa rated issuers in each. For descriptions of these industry classifications, please see Appendix C. Exhibit 2: Industry Coverage Industry Count of Baa Issuers Aerospace & Defense 6 Automotive 15 Chemicals 20 Consumer Products 55 Manufacturing 48 Media 25 Metals & Mining 14 Oil & Gas 57 Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals 13 Retail & Distribution 26 Services 15 Technology & Telecommunications 45 Transportation Services 15 Source: Moody's Financial Metrics 5 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
6 III.1 EBITA / Average Assets Exhibit 3 sorts the industries by their median Baa EBITA / Average Assets ratio. The complete distribution is presented in Appendix A. The median aggregate ratios at different rating categories are highlighted for comparison. Exhibit 3: Median Baa EBITA / Average Assets 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% Metals & Mining Aa Aaa Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Oil & Gas A Manufacturing Technology & Telecommunications Consumer Products Baa Chemicals Ba Transportation Services Retail & Distribution Aerospace & Defense Services Media Automotive B Caa-C Source: Moody's Financial Metrics From Exhibit 3 we see that for Baa rated issuers, median EBITA / Average Assets is highest for the Metals & Mining, Oil & Gas, and Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals industries, with Metals & Mining exceeding that of the aggregate Aa rated issuer set. At the other extreme, the median Baa ratio is lowest for the Automotive industry, ranking just above the aggregate B rated issuer set. While this ratio is strictly increasing across ratings in the aggregate up to Aa, that is true for only five industries. 6 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
7 III.2 EBITA / Interest Expense Exhibit 4 presents median Baa EBITA / Interest Expense ratios by industry. Again, detailed distributions are reported in the Appendix. Aggregate ratios are monotonic, and that holds true for nine industries, making it the single most predictive metric we study. Exhibit 4: Median Baa EBITA / Interest Expense Aaa Aa Metals & Mining Oil & Gas A Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Manufacturing Automotive Baa Chemicals Services Retail & Distribution Consumer Products Transportation Services Aerospace & Defense Technology & Telecommunications Media Ba B Caa-C Source: Moody's Financial Metrics Metals & Mining and Oil & Gas have the largest metrics, exceeding that of the aggregate A cohort. Technology & Telecommunications and Media have the lowest median EBITA / Interest Expense Ratio, falling slightly above the aggregate Ba issuer pool. 7 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
8 III.3 EBITA Margin Median Baa EBITA Margins are presented in Exhibit 5. This metric is strictly monotonic up to Aa in the aggregate and two industries. This metric is highest for the Oil & Gas, Metals & Mining and Transportation Services industries, and lowest for the Retail & Distribution and Automotive sectors. Exhibit 5: Median Baa EBITA Margin 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% Metals & Mining Oil & Gas Transportation Services Media Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Technology & Telecommunications Aa A Aaa Baa Ba Services Manufacturing Consumer Products Aerospace & Defense Chemicals B Automotive Retail & Distribution Caa-C Source: Moody's Financial Metrics 8 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
9 III.4 Operating Margin Median Baa Operating Margins are presented in Exhibit 6. This metric is strictly monotonic up to Aa in the aggregate, and for three industries. Just as was the case with median EBITA Margins, the Oil & Gas, Metals & Mining and Transportation industries have the greatest median Baa Operating Margins. Automotive and Retail & Distribution are on the lower end. Exhibit 6: Median Baa Operating Margin 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Metals & Mining Transportation Services Oil & Gas Aa Technology & Telecommunications Media Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Aaa A Baa Ba Services Manufacturing Consumer Products Chemicals Aerospace & Defense B Retail & Distribution Automotive Caa-C Source: Moody's Financial Metrics 9 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
10 III.5 (FFO + Interest Expense) / Interest Expense Exhibit 7 presents the median Baa (FFO + Interest Expense) / Interest Expense ratios by industry. In the aggregate, this metric increases monotonically with ratings up to Aa. That holds true for nine industries as well. The Metals & Mining industry has median ratios that exceed the A aggregate. On the other hand, the Media industry has median metrics just above that of the aggregate Ba cohort. Exhibit 7: Median Baa (FFO + Interest Expense) / Interest Expense Aa Aaa Metals & Mining A Oil & Gas Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Technology & Telecommunications Automotive Manufacturing Baa Chemicals Services Retail & Distribution Consumer Products Transportation Services Aerospace & Defense Media Ba B Caa-C Source: Moody's Financial Metrics 10 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
11 III.6 FFO / Debt Median Baa FFO / Debt ratios are presented in Exhibit 8. In the aggregate, this metric increases monotonically with ratings. That continues to hold true for six industries. The Metals & Mining industry has median ratios exceeding that of the aggregate A cohort. The Media sector has the lowest median FFO / Debt ratio, less than that of the aggregate Ba issuer pool. Exhibit 8: Median Baa FFO / Debt 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0% Aaa Aa Metals & Mining A Oil & Gas Technology & Telecommunications Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Services Manufacturing Baa Chemicals Transportation Services Aerospace & Defense Consumer Products Automotive Retail & Distribution Ba Media B Caa-C Source: Moody's Financial Metrics 11 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
12 III.7 Retained Cash Flow / Net Debt Median Baa RCF / Net Debt ratios are presented in Exhibit 9. This metric doesn't monotonically increase with ratings in the aggregate but does within five industry sectors. Metals & Mining and Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals have median ratios in excess of the aggregate Aa pool. The Media industry has RCF / Net Debt ratios below the aggregate Ba set. Exhibit 9: Median Baa RCF / Net Debt 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% Aaa Metals & Mining Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals A Aa Oil & Gas Technology & Telecommunications Manufacturing Services Aerospace & Defense Chemicals Automotive Baa Transportation Services Retail & Distribution Consumer Products Ba Media B Caa-C Source: Moody's Financial Metrics 12 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
13 III.8 Debt / EBITDA Median Baa Debt / EBITDA is presented in Exhibit 10. In the aggregate this metric is monotonically decreasing with ratings, as expected, and that continues to hold true for six industry sectors. Note that the Oil & Gas and Metals & Mining industries have the lowest median ratios, all below the A aggregate. On the other hand, the Media sector has the greatest Debt / EBITDA ratio, exceeding the Ba aggregate. Exhibit 10: Median Baa Debt / EBITDA Aaa Aa Metals & Mining Oil & Gas A Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Technology & Telecommunications Manufacturing Services Baa Chemicals Consumer Products Transportation Services Automotive Aerospace & Defense Retail & Distribution Ba Media B Caa-C Source: Moody's Financial Metrics 13 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
14 III.9 Debt / Book Capitalization Median Baa Debt / Book Capitalization is presented in Exhibit 11. This decreases with ratings in the aggregate, but only for six industry groups. The ordering of industries closely tracks that given by Debt / EBITDA ratios. The sectors with the least Debt / Book Cap metrics are Metals & Mining and Oil & Gas. The Retail & Distribution and Transportation Services industries have the greatest Debt / Book Cap ratio, exceeding the Ba aggregate. Exhibit 11: Median Baa Debt / Book Capitalization 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% Aaa Metals & Mining Aa A Oil & Gas Media Services Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Manufacturing Chemicals Baa Automotive Consumer Products Technology & Telecommunications Ba Aerospace & Defense Transportation Services Retail & Distribution B Caa-C Source: Moody's Financial Metrics 14 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
15 III.10 CAPEX / Depreciation Exhibit 12 presents median CAPEX / Depreciation ratios for Baa rated issuers. This metric increases across ratings in the aggregate, but does so for just two industries: Automotive and Services. Oil & Gas and Transportation Services are among the strongest industry sectors, while Automotive and Technology & Telecommunications are among the weakest. Exhibit 12: Median Baa CAPEX / Depreciation Oil & Gas Transportation Services Aaa Metals & Mining Aa Retail & Distribution A Aerospace & Defense Baa Services Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Consumer Products Manufacturing Ba Chemicals Media Automotive Technology & Telecommunications B Caa-C Source: Moody's Financial Metrics 15 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
16 III.11 Revenue Volatility Exhibit 13 presents median revenue volatility metrics for Baa rated issuers by industry. As discussed, this metric does not correlate well with ratings in the aggregate. No industry exhibits the expected monotonic relationship between ratings and volatility. The Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals industry has the least volatile revenues among Baa rated issuers. Other leading sectors include Retail & Distribution and Transportation Services, all with revenues less volatile than the A-rated aggregate. On the other hand, revenue volatility for several industries exceeds that of the C-rated aggregate. These include Metals & Mining and Oil & Gas. Exhibit 13: Median Baa Revenue Volatility Metals & Mining Oil & Gas Caa-C Ba B Chemicals Baa Aerospace & Defense Technology & Telecommunications Consumer Products Media Services Automotive Manufacturing Aaa A Transportation Services Retail & Distribution Aa Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Source: Moody's Financial Metrics 16 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
17 IV Discussion Exhibit 14 summarizes the results presented above. For each metric, we report its standardized (mean 100, standard deviation 1) value and sort the industries by their average score. 3 The Oil & Gas, Metals & Mining and Healthcare & Pharmaceutical industries have the highest average score, while the Aerospace & Defense, Media and Retail & Distribution sectors have the lowest. What are we to make of these results? Recall that these results are conditioned on ratings: Baa-rated issuers in the Oil & Gas industry generally have stronger (sometimes substantially stronger) metrics than do Baa rated issuers in the Retail & Distribution industry. One interpretation is that observing different values is evidence of different methods or standards in assigning ratings: we observe better metrics in Oil & Gas than Retail & Distribution because we hold the former to a higher standard than we do the latter, perhaps because one industry is intrinsically riskier than the other. Consistent with previous research, we find evidence to suggest that this is true. Using "revenue volatility" as a proxy for intrinsic risk, the hypothesis is that we should observe better credit ratios associated with greater volatility within a rating category. In other words, we should observe a negative correlation between the standardized credit ratios and standardized revenue volatility. Exhibit 15 reports the correlation of the standardized values of each metric to revenue volatility. As expected, we obtain negative correlations for all metrics. The most significant correlations are with Debt / Book Capitalization (-0.76), FFO / Debt (-.76) and EBITA / Interest Expense (-0.73). While purely suggestive, the results indicate that industries with more volatile revenues are required to achieve stronger credit metrics in order to obtain the Baa rating. 3 The average is taken with respect to all metrics except revenue volatility. Adjustments are made for those metrics (e.g. Debt / EBITDA) for which greater values are less desirable. 17 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
18 Exhibit 14: Summary of Standardized Baa Metrics Average score EBITA/ Average AT EBITA/ IntExp EBITA Margin Operating Margin (FFO + IntExp)/ IntExp Metals & Mining Oil & Gas Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Technology & Telecommunications Manufacturing Transportation Services Services Chemicals Consumer Products Automotive Media Aerospace & Defense Retail & Distribution Source: Moody's Financial Metrics Exhibit 14: Summary of Standardized Baa Metrics Average score FFO/ Debt RCF/ NetDebt Debt /EBITDA Debt/ BookCap CAPEX/ DepExp Metals & Mining Oil & Gas Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Technology & Telecommunications Manufacturing Transportation Services Services Chemicals Consumer Products Automotive Media Aerospace & Defense Retail & Distribution Rev Vol 18 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
19 Exhibit 15: Correlation of Median Baa Metrics to Revenue Volatility Metric Correlation EBITA/Average AT EBITA/IntExp EBITA Margin Operating Margin (FFO + IntExp)/IntExp FFO/Debt RCF/NetDebt Debt/EBITDA Debt/BookCap CAPEX/DepExp Source: Moody's Financial Metrics 19 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
20 Appendix A Detailed Distributions by Credit Metric Exhibit A-1: Median EBITA / Average Assets Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa-C Aggregate 15.3% 15.6% 12.5% 10.1% 9.6% 7.3% 2.0% n Aerospace & Defense 10.8% 8.9% 10.7% 7.1% Automotive 12.0% 11.2% 9.2% 7.9% 5.3% 6.6% 2.6% Chemicals 18.9% 11.2% 9.6% 10.3% 8.2% Consumer Products 12.9% 19.7% 12.9% 10.2% 8.8% 7.4% 3.0% Manufacturing 10.0% 6.5% 13.7% 11.5% 12.3% 9.2% -6.5% Media 4.9% 12.4% 8.3% 7.7% 7.2% -6.0% Metals & Mining 17.2% 18.8% 20.4% 7.0% -11.5% Oil & Gas 25.8% 19.7% 19.5% 13.0% 11.1% 8.1% 7.3% Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals 24.1% 19.5% 17.3% 14.2% 10.9% 7.3% 1.9% Retail & Distribution 12.1% 11.4% 9.3% 8.0% 7.5% 3.5% Services 12.9% 8.5% 10.2% 8.5% 5.9% Technology & Telecommunications 15.7% 11.5% 11.0% 9.3% 6.5% 1.5% Transportation Services 17.7% 7.5% 10.0% 9.4% 7.7% 6.3% Source: Moody's Financial Metrics Note: A companion spreadsheet is available at 20 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
21 Exhibit A-2: Median EBITA / Interest Expense Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa-C Aggregate n Aerospace & Defense Automotive Chemicals Consumer Products Manufacturing Media Metals & Mining Oil & Gas Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Retail & Distribution Technology & Telecommunications Services Transportation Services December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
22 Exhibit A-3: Median EBITA Margin Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa-C Aggregate 14.8% 17.5% 15.2% 13.9% 13.4% 9.4% 2.4% n Aerospace & Defense 11.6% 10.6% 10.8% 7.2% Automotive 10.3% 7.5% 7.3% 7.6% 4.3% 5.3% 2.1% Chemicals 14.9% 12.6% 10.3% 10.4% 7.5% Consumer Products 13.8% 17.6% 14.6% 12.1% 11.0% 8.1% 2.7% Manufacturing 14.4% 17.5% 12.6% 12.3% 9.9% 10.5% -2.6% Media 5.6% 23.5% 19.4% 21.0% 18.8% -13.6% Metals & Mining 18.5% 28.8% 21.2% 7.1% -6.4% Oil & Gas 20.2% 15.2% 24.3% 21.4% 29.0% 14.9% 15.8% Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals 28.9% 34.7% 24.4% 18.9% 14.7% 10.5% 3.1% Retail & Distribution 6.5% 7.4% 6.7% 6.7% 6.8% 3.2% Technology & Telecommunications Services 25.9% 12.7% 19.5% 13.7% 11.2% % 19.0% 18.2% 17.2% 10.3% 2.6% Transportation Services 15.3% 21.1% 26.6% 21.3% 25.3% 9.5% December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
23 Exhibit A-4: Median Operating Margin Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa-C Aggregate 14.9% 17.0% 13.8% 12.6% 12.2% 8.5% 1.6% n Aerospace & Defense 10.3% 8.6% 9.5% 6.0% Automotive 9.5% 7.9% 7.0% 6.2% 4.4% 4.8% 1.9% Chemicals 12.8% 10.0% 8.8% 8.3% 7.1% Consumer Products 12.7% 17.7% 13.3% 11.2% 9.5% 7.3% 2.0% Manufacturing 15.0% 17.4% 12.5% 11.2% 9.1% 9.4% -2.2% Media 4.6% 20.3% 15.5% 19.1% 16.8% -22.6% Metals & Mining 19.5% 27.6% 20.4% 6.3% -6.5% Oil & Gas 16.9% 12.4% 19.2% 20.4% 27.3% 13.8% 14.0% Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals 26.1% 25.5% 20.7% 15.3% 13.2% 10.9% 2.6% Retail & Distribution 6.4% 7.1% 6.3% 6.3% 6.1% 2.0% Technology & Telecommunications Services 20.3% 11.8% 15.7% 10.3% 5.2% % 16.6% 16.7% 12.3% 5.8% 1.8% Transportation Services 14.8% 20.5% 25.8% 20.5% 21.0% 8.3% December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
24 Exhibit A-5: Median (FFO + Interest Expense) / Interest Expense Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa-C Aggregate n Aerospace & Defense Automotive Chemicals Consumer Products Manufacturing Media Metals & Mining Oil & Gas Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Retail & Distribution Technology & Telecommunications Services Transportation Services December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
25 Exhibit A-6: Median FFO / Debt Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa-C Aggregate 117.3% 68.4% 43.8% 29.2% 21.8% 12.0% 4.3% n Aerospace & Defense 44.1% 27.4% 24.9% 12.5% Automotive 158.4% 505.2% 49.6% 24.6% 12.4% 11.0% 6.8% Chemicals 48.6% 38.8% 27.7% 19.7% 13.1% Consumer Products 43.4% 39.2% 35.6% 25.3% 17.1% 10.1% 4.0% Manufacturing 112.3% 26.0% 45.1% 30.2% 29.2% 14.1% -0.3% Media 31.5% 43.1% 21.4% 12.6% 8.7% -4.4% Metals & Mining 108.8% 61.6% 62.4% 28.6% -5.3% Oil & Gas 126.6% 82.8% 56.6% 43.0% 30.4% 18.6% 27.3% Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals 122.3% 94.9% 65.7% 39.8% 27.7% 16.6% 13.7% Retail & Distribution 30.2% 30.8% 23.3% 21.7% 10.5% 7.4% Technology & Telecommunications Services 34.6% 31.1% 22.6% 12.6% 6.5% % 57.2% 40.5% 32.2% 16.1% 4.3% Transportation Services 45.4% 12.7% 20.5% 27.5% 15.3% 10.8% December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
26 Exhibit A-7: Median Retained Cash Flow / Net Debt Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa-C Aggregate 96.3% 38.4% 38.7% 27.7% 20.0% 11.7% 4.6% n Aerospace & Defense 66.7% 31.0% 27.1% 12.9% Automotive % % 36.9% 28.0% 16.5% 11.7% 7.2% Chemicals 41.6% 32.7% 30.9% 18.7% 12.0% Consumer Products 51.9% 38.0% 31.0% 21.1% 16.4% 8.8% 4.0% Manufacturing 80.5% 12.9% 46.6% 32.7% 30.4% 11.0% -0.3% Media 45.2% 44.1% 19.0% 11.6% 6.8% -4.8% Metals & Mining 138.1% 50.8% 34.6% 18.7% -5.9% Oil & Gas 271.9% 97.3% 69.4% 37.6% 26.8% 16.5% 28.8% Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals 112.0% 60.6% 77.8% 40.9% 19.3% 15.3% 15.7% Retail & Distribution 29.8% 34.3% 21.5% 21.6% 10.1% 7.4% Technology & Telecommunications Services 24.3% 31.3% 21.4% 11.4% 7.0% % 36.8% 34.2% 31.5% 17.6% 3.5% Transportation Services 35.8% 12.1% 19.1% 26.1% 17.3% 11.9% December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
27 Exhibit A-8: Median Debt / EBITDA Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa-C Aggregate n Aerospace & Defense Automotive Chemicals Consumer Products Manufacturing Media Metals & Mining Oil & Gas Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Retail & Distribution Technology & Telecommunications Services Transportation Services December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
28 Exhibit A-9: Median Debt / Book Capitalization Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa-C Aggregate 22.7% 32.5% 39.1% 44.8% 53.5% 70.2% 92.5% n Aerospace & Defense 40.4% 53.5% 49.4% 57.5% Automotive 12.7% 4.1% 34.4% 46.3% 59.5% 77.7% 78.1% Chemicals 38.5% 44.7% 44.3% 63.4% 76.9% Consumer Products 32.3% 27.9% 48.2% 46.7% 59.4% 74.8% 93.1% Manufacturing 24.5% 42.9% 38.2% 44.3% 45.4% 62.5% 102.3% Media 29.7% 30.3% 42.1% 59.1% 70.9% 150.7% Metals & Mining 20.5% 30.2% 33.1% 46.6% 102.7% Oil & Gas 20.1% 25.9% 47.7% 39.9% 45.0% 55.4% 51.4% Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals 20.9% 30.9% 32.9% 43.4% 45.9% 61.1% 71.0% Retail & Distribution 44.7% 46.7% 56.2% 63.0% 76.0% 94.9% Technology & Telecommunications Services 41.7% 43.0% 55.7% 64.8% 77.7% % 33.3% 48.2% 49.8% 66.1% 95.7% Transportation Services 47.2% 75.1% 59.7% 55.2% 66.3% 80.3% December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
29 Exhibit A-10: Median CAPEX / Depreciation Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa-C Aggregate n Aerospace & Defense Automotive Chemicals Consumer Products Manufacturing Media Metals & Mining Oil & Gas Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Retail & Distribution Technology & Telecommunications Services Transportation Services December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
30 Exhibit A-11: Median Revenue Volatility Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa-C Aggregate n Aerospace & Defense Automotive Chemicals Consumer Products Manufacturing Media Metals & Mining Oil & Gas Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Retail & Distribution Technology & Telecommunications Services Transportation Services December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
31 Appendix B Definition of Credit Ratios Below we define the ratios presented in this study. Please note that these definitions are applied to adjusted financial numbers. For a detailed discussion of Moody's global adjustments, please consult the references. EBITA / Average Assets EBITA / Average of Current and Previous Year Assets EBITA / Interest Expense EBITA / Interest Expense EBITA Margin EBITA / Net Revenue (FFO + Interest Expense) / Interest Expense (Funds From Operations + Interest Expense) / Interest Expense FFO / Debt Funds From Operations / (Short-Term Debt + Long-Term Debt) RCF / Debt (FFO - Preferred Dividends - Common Dividends - Minority Dividends) / (Short-Term Debt + Long-Term Debt) Debt / EBITDA (Short-Term Debt + Long-Term Debt) / EBITDA Debt / Book Capitalization (Short-Term Debt + Long-Term Debt) / (Short-Term Debt + Long-Term Debt + Deferred Taxes + Minority Interest + Book Equity) Operating Margin Operating Profit / Net Revenue CAPEX / Depreciation Expense CAPEX / Depreciation Expense Revenue Volatility Standard Deviation of Trailing Five Years of Net Revenue Growth 31 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
32 Appendix C Definition of Industry Aggregates In this report we study the distribution of financial ratios across 13 industry aggregates. These aggregates are based on proprietary Moody's coding of broad and specific industry categories. They may generally be described as follows: Aerospace & Defense Aircraft, aerospace and defense equipment and parts manufacturers. Automotive Commercial and passenger automotive and parts manufacturers. Chemicals Agricultural, commodity and specialty chemicals producers. Consumer Products Packaged food and beverage, household and personal care products, apparel and shoes, textiles and durable consumer products. Casinos, lodging, restaurants and general amusements. Pulp and (nonpackaging) paper, wood products, agriculture, protein and tobacco processors. Paper, glass, metal and plastic packaging. Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals Hospitals, long-term care facilities, outpatient facilities, medical device manufacturers and medical service providers. General and specialty pharmaceuticals. Manufacturing Heavy machinery, building materials, (low technology) component equipment, (non-consumer) finished products, and transportation equipment manufacturers. Commercial and residential construction, homebuilding. Media Book and newspaper publishing, broadcast and subscription radio and television, and diversified media. Metals & Mining Coal and metal mining, aluminum and steel production and recycling. Oil & Gas Oil & gas exploration and production, refining and marketing, and integrated oil companies. (Non-utility) electricity production, merchant energy, oil service and pipeline operators, environmental services and waste management. Retail & Distribution Grocery stores, drug stores, department stores, general and specialty merchandise retailers, and various wholesale distributors. Services Business services, consumer services, technology services, and defense services. 32 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
33 Technology and Telecommunications Computer hardware, software, component equipment, consumer electronics, semiconductor and contract manufacturers. Wireless, wireline, towers, satellite equipment and services, equipment manufacturers and integrated telecommunications companies. Transportation Services Equipment leasing, airlines, air freight, railroad and maritime shipping, commuter transportation. 33 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
34 References Hamilton, D. (2005), "Moody's Senior Ratings Algorithm & Estimated Senior Ratings," Moody's Global Credit Research, July Moody s Related Research Tennant, J. (2007), "Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for European, Middle Eastern and African Non-Financial Corporations: December 2007," Moody's Special Comment, December 2007 (106387) Metz, A. (2007), "Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for North American Non- Financial Corporations: October 2007," Moody's Special Comment, October 2007 (105312) Metz, A. (2006), "The Distribution of Common Financial Ratios by Rating and Industry for North American Non-Financial Corporations: July 2006," Moody's Special Comment, July 2006 (98551) Stumpp, P., de Bodard, E., Lau, C. and C.M. Hu (2006), "Moody's Approach to Global Standard Adjustments in the Analysis of Financial Statements for Non-Financial Corporations - Part I," Moody's Rating Methodology, February 2006 (96760) de Bodard, E., Lau, C., C.M. Hu and P. Stumpp (2006), "Moody's Approach to Global Standard Adjustments in the Analysis of Financial Statements for Non-Financial Corporations - Part II," Moody's Rating Methodology, February 2006 (96729) Stumpp, P., de Bodard, E., Lau, C., Otsuki, E. and S. Tanimoto (2006), "Moody's Approach to Global Standard Adjustments in the Analysis of Financial Statements for Non-Financial Corporations - Part III," Moody's Rating Methodology, September 2006 (98842) "Moody's Basic Definitions for Credit Statistics," User's Guide, June 2007 (78480) To access any of these reports, click on the entry above. Note that these references are current as of the date of publication of this report and that more recent reports may be available. All research may not be available to all clients. 34 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
35 Author(s) Jennifer Tennant Production Associate Charles Ornegri Copyright 2007, Moody s Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates including Moody s Assurance Company, Inc. (together, MOODY S ). All rights reserved. ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, such information is provided as is without warranty of any kind and MOODY S, in particular, makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, completeness, merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose of any such information. Under no circumstances shall MOODY S have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error (negligent or otherwise) or other circumstance or contingency within or outside the control of MOODY S or any of its directors, officers, employees or agents in connection with the procurement, collection, compilation, analysis, interpretation, communication, publication or delivery of any such information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory or incidental damages whatsoever (including without limitation, lost profits), even if MOODY S is advised in advance of the possibility of such damages, resulting from the use of or inability to use, any such information. The credit ratings and financial reporting analysis observations, if any, constituting part of the information contained herein are, and must be construed solely as, statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or hold any securities. NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER. Each rating or other opinion must be weighed solely as one factor in any investment decision made by or on behalf of any user of the information contained herein, and each such user must accordingly make its own study and evaluation of each security and of each issuer and guarantor of, and each provider of credit support for, each security that it may consider purchasing, holding or selling. MOODY S hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MOODY S have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MOODY S for appraisal and rating services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,500 to approximately $2,400,000. Moody s Corporation (MCO) and its wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary, Moody s Investors Service (MIS), also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MIS s ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually on Moody s website at under the heading Shareholder Relations Corporate Governance Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy. 35 December 2007 Special Comment - Moody's Financial Metrics TM Key Ratios by Rating and Industry for Global Non-Financial Corporations
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