2010 Update to the State of Montana Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan and Statewide Hazard Assessment 4.0 RISK ASSESSMENT

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1 4.0 RISK ASSESSMENT The Risk Assessment portion of this document provides a detailed description of the hazards in Montana, an assessment of the State s vulnerability to those hazards, and a basis for the mitigation goals and activities proposed in the Mitigation Strategy portion of the document. This Risk Assessment section examines natural and man-made hazards that can impact the state, determines which areas of the state are most vulnerable to each hazard, and estimates potential losses to state facilities for each hazard. 4.1 HAZARD IDENTIFICATION A database of historical hazard events was developed using a variety of sources to identify all hazards commonly recognized as threats to the State. The research was very thorough and involved such organization as Montana DES, the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Storm Events Database and Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS), as described below, records of past federal and state disaster declarations were reviewed to determine the most significant hazard events causing loss of life and property. The NCDC Storm Events database receives Storm Data from the National Weather Service (NWS). The NWS service receives their information from a variety of sources, including county, state and federal emergency management officials, local law enforcement officials, skywarn spotters, NWS damage surveys, newspaper clipping services, the insurance industry and the general public. Storm Data is an official publication of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) which documents the occurrence of storms and other significant weather phenomena having sufficient intensity to cause loss of life, injuries, significant property damage, and/or disruption to commerce. SHELDUS is a county-level hazard data set for the United States for 18 different natural hazard events types. For each event the database includes the date, location, property losses, crop losses, injuries, and fatalities that affected each county. The database includes every loss causing and/or deadly event between 1960 through 1975 and from 1995 onward. Between 1976 and 1995, SHELDUS reflects only events that caused at least one fatality or more than $50,000 in property or crop damages. Prior knowledge of risks associated with each hazard summarized in the original Plan (2004) stemmed from a series of Hazard Technical Advisory Group and Stakeholder Meetings, which included statewide experts in resource management, emergency services and disaster mitigation. Review of the previous Plan helped form a framework for the discussions and the identification of hazards. As part of the update process, all of the hazards profiled in the original Plan were closely examined by the SHMO and Contractor, and validated by the Planning Team with regard to the following considerations: Montana DES 4-1 November 2010

2 Prior knowledge of the relative risk associated with each of the hazards; Information from the hazard event database including any recent events occurring within the last three years; Comparison to hazards identified in local jurisdiction plans; The ability to effectively mitigate the hazard via the DMA 2000 process; The known or expected availability of information on the hazard; Duplication of the hazards risk in other hazard definitions; and Whether or not the hazard is already being sufficiently addressed through other planning efforts of the State. The hazard profiles and historic hazard events summarized in each completed county and tribal hazard mitigation plans were studied to aid identifying and screening hazard to determine statewide risk. The presumption was that the importance given to hazards by the local communities would and should correlate to priorities for the State. As of June 30, 2010, Montana has had approved 45 Local PDM Plans in good standing. Twenty-one (21) local plans are in the update process or waiting for update funding some of which have expired. Where available, hazard information from the local plans has been incorporated into the State Plan. In addition, electronic links to local plans for 59 of Montana s 62 counties and tribal reservations is provided in Appendix D. The Risk Assessment in the 2010 State Hazard Mitigation Plan focuses on the hazards listed below, as outlined in subsequent sections of this chapter: Dam Failure Earthquakes Flooding Hazardous Material Incidents Landslides Severe Thunderstorms, Hail, Wind and Tornadoes Volcanic Eruptions Wildland and Rangeland Fires Winter Storms and Avalanche As mentioned previously, the State has elected to de-emphasize three hazards in the 2010 State Hazard Mitigation Plan including: communicable disease, drought, and terrorism/violence. These hazards are de-emphasized because they are extensively covered by other plans administered by other State or Federal agencies and can t be mitigated through the DMA 2000 process. A summary of these hazards is presented below because they may still be relevant to Local PDM Plans Communicable Disease Communicable diseases, sometimes called infectious diseases, are illnesses caused by organisms such as bacteria, viruses, fungi and parasites. Sometimes the illness is not due to the organism itself, but rather a toxin that the organism produces after it has been introduced into a human host. Communicable diseases may be transmitted (spread) either by: one infected person to another, from an animal to a human, from an animal to an animal, or from some Montana DES 4-2 November 2010

3 inanimate object (doorknobs, table tops, etc.) to an individual. A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. The entire population of the State of Montana is at risk for contracting disease. The urban population centers are more vulnerable to rapidly spreading and highly contagious diseases than more rural parts of the state. The number of fatalities would depend on the mortality rate and the percentage of the population affected. The ability to control the spread of disease would be dependent on the contagiousness of the disease, movement of the population, and the warning time involved. The security of the state s crop and livestock industry is of paramount importance to Montana s economy. Foreign plant and animal pests and diseases may be introduced into the United States through banned agricultural products and unchecked foreign goods. These pests and diseases could devastate America s crops, livestock and environment. The USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) estimates that introduced plant pests result in an annual $41 billion loss to American agriculture and cost taxpayers millions more dollars in control expenditures (USDA APHIS, 2005b). Montana s agricultural industry is also vulnerable to economic loss due to plant and animal disease. No state of federal disaster declarations have been made as the result of a communicable disease outbreak. Montana Department of Public Health and Human Services has extensive plans, preparedness, response and recovery plans in place and a sample of those can be found at Drought Drought originates from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time, usually a season or more. This deficiency results in a water or soil moisture shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sector. Drought is a normal, recurrent feature of climate, although many erroneously consider it a rare and random event. It occurs in virtually all climatic zones, but its characteristics vary significantly from one region to another. The effects of drought become apparent with a longer duration because more and more moisture-related activities are affected. Non-irrigated croplands are most susceptible to moisture shortages. Rangeland and irrigated agricultural lands do not feel the effects of drought as quickly as the non-irrigated, cultivated acreage, but their yields can also be greatly reduced due to drought. Reductions in yields due to moisture shortages are often aggravated by windinduced soil erosion. In periods of severe drought, plant and forest fuel moisture is very low, increasing the potential for devastating wildland and rangeland fires. Under extreme drought conditions, lakes, reservoirs, and rivers can be subject to severe water shortages, impacting irrigation, drinking water, fish populations, and fire suppression water supplies. Montana DES 4-3 November 2010

4 An additional hazard resulting from drought conditions is insect infestation. Grasshopper populations tend to increase with livestock grazing rates and dry conditions, and they can double, triple, or quadruple with each successive year of drought. Drought disasters are unique; they typically do not require evacuations or constitute an imminent threat to life or property. As a result, disaster declarations and assistance are typically provided by agencies such as the USDA Farm Service Agency and Small Business Administration. There have been no Presidential disaster declarations for drought, except for those related to wildland fires. Drought has the most profound impact on growing crops and providing enough feed for livestock. Counties that have a high dependence on agriculture are reflected in the percentage of personal farm income to total personal income. These counties may be more vulnerable to drought. Several State of Montana agencies are engaged in drought activities and plans. The Department of Agriculture, the Department of Livestock and the Montana Conservation Districts all have drought plans or programs. The State Department of Natural Resources also has a Drought Advisory Committee and some of their activities can be found at Terrorism and Violence Terrorism is defined in the Code of Federal Regulations as "the unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives". Cyberterrorism involves computers, networks, and the information they contain. Like other terrorist acts, cyber-terror attacks are typically premeditated, politically motivated, perpetrated by small groups rather than governments, and designed to call attention to a cause, spread fear, or otherwise influence the public and decision-makers. The origins and targets for terrorism and civil unrest are difficult to predict. Individuals or groups that feel oppressed on any issue can resort to violent acts to inflict harm and damage in an attempt to gain publicity or affect policy. The locations of these attacks can occur anywhere but often the symbols that represent a threat to their cause are often times the target. From a historic perspective, these targets have often been government buildings, government officials, and university facilities. Other common targets include medical clinics, businesses, population concentrations, computer mainframes, or critical infrastructure with the ability to cause significant disruption and damage. Civil unrest and riots are typically associated with large public gatherings, initially peaceful protests, controversial political decisions, large strikes, and law enforcement standoffs. Other potential non-structural targets include our population, plants, and animals through bioterrorism. Our state could also be affected by bioterrorism initiated in another location and transmitted to Montana. Terrorists, both domestic and international, often act in unpredictable Montana DES 4-4 November 2010

5 ways, and therefore all methods of attack cannot be specified. Because of this unpredictability, specific vulnerabilities cannot be determined without disclosing sensitive information. Both the Federal Department of Homeland Security and State of Montana Disaster Emergency Services Homeland Security Advisor have programs and are engaged in prevention and or response to Terrorism and Violence in the State of Montana. 4.2 HAZARD RANKING In ranking the hazards, the Planning Team examined six consequences of hazard events: potential to damage structures, potential for deaths, potential for injury, potential for economic impact, potential damage to the environment, and potential to occur (Table 4.2-1). Each consequence was ranked from low (generating a score of 1), to high (generating a score of 3). In applying the damage measures, the assessment assumed the hazard was severe enough to be considered eligible for Federal assistance of some form. TABLE QUALITATIVE HAZARD ASSESSMENT MEASURES Hazard High Moderate Low Potential to Damage Widespread, Severe Structures Damage Localized Severe Damage Minor Damage Potential for Deaths Greater than No deaths Potential for Injury Greater than Less than 10 Potential for Economic Impact Extended Widespread Temporary Widespread Temporary Localized Potential Damage to Environment Widespread, Severe Localized, Severe Minimal Potential to Occur 20 Years or Less Years 100 Years or Greater The hazards with the highest total scores were considered the hazards of greatest concern for the State. Table shows the ranking of the nine hazard categories, with the priority hazards scoring highest. Hazard TABLE QUALITATIVE HAZARD ASSESSMENT SUMMARY FOR MONTANA Structure Potential Potential Economic Damage to Damage for Death for Injury Impact Environment Potential to Occur Wildland and Rangeland Fires moderate high high high high high 17 Earthquake high high high high moderate low 15 Flooding moderate moderate moderate high low moderate 12 Dam Failure moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate low 11 Thunderstorms, Hail, Wind, Tornadoes moderate moderate moderate high low high 11 Winter Storms and Avalanche low low low low low high 8 Hazardous Material Incidents low low moderate low moderate low 8 Landslides low low low moderate moderate low 8 Volcanic Eruptions low low low moderate moderate low 8 Notes: total value derived by assigning 3 for high, 2 for moderate, and 1 for low. Total Montana DES 4-5 November 2010

6 4.3 ASSESSING VULNERABILITY The vulnerability assessment provided in the original Plan and 2007 update was largely revised and replaced in this update. The completion of most all of the county and tribal hazard mitigation plans has resulted in additional data being available for evaluating the State s vulnerability to hazards. The State also desired a GIS-based risk assessment template methodology to estimate loss. Appendix B contains the risk assessment template. Data limitations still exist because the database of State facilities does not have a spatial component (geo-code or latitude/longitude) that can be used in analysis. By the 2013 update, this data should be available and the state risk assessment can be revised with 2010 U.S. Census data. Methodologies for assessing hazard vulnerability vary depending upon the hazard, the type of losses that can be incurred, and available data. For some hazards, models have been developed to assess the potential vulnerability and calculate losses. For others, the vulnerability is qualitative and potential losses can only be assessed in a very general nature. Potential losses were analyzed at both the state and local level. The hazard assessment identifies the exposure in structure value and content value for State-owned facilities. Hazard exposure at the local level is based on structure value, society risk and potential economic loss, as detailed in the local hazard mitigation plans reviewed. Vulnerabilities are described in terms of critical facilities, infrastructure, structures, population, and socioeconomic values that can be affected by the hazard event. Hazard impact areas describe the geographic extent a hazard can impact a jurisdiction and are uniquely defined on a hazard-by-hazard basis. Mapping of the hazards, where spatial differences exist, allows for hazard analysis by geographic location. Some hazards can have varying levels of risk based on location. Other hazards cover larger geographic areas and affect the area uniformly. For the purposes of conducting the risk analysis, most hazard impact areas were defined as the percentage of area in each census tract that would be affected. The methods used in this risk assessment represent the best readily-available data that can be used statewide. Table describes the methods used to assess vulnerability and losses across the state. Hazard Dam Failure Earthquake TABLE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODS Vulnerability Assessment Methods A GIS layer was created of the inundation areas associated with Montana-regulated high hazard dams. This data was intersected with census tract data to determine potential number and value of buildings and critical facilities in hazard risk zones as well as vulnerable population. Percent area in the inundation areas was intersected with population density to illustrate Montana counties where dam failure impacts could affect the most people. HAZUS Earthquake Model Level 1 Analysis Using Annualized Loss Estimate Methods by county. If annualized losses exceed $500,000, the county is considered to be highly vulnerable to earthquakes. Results of a Level 2 HAZUS analysis of critical facilities within the Helena Capitol complex, State Hospital and Prison complexes, and at four University campuses within the Intermountain Seismic Belt is presented. Montana DES 4-6 November 2010

7 Hazard Flooding Hazardous Material Incidents Landslide Volcanic Eruptions Winter Storms and Avalanches Severe Thunderstorms, Hail, Wind and Tornadoes Wildland and Rangeland Fires TABLE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODS Vulnerability Assessment Methods Historic data was used to calculate hazard frequency and magnitude. This percentage was then applied to an intersect with FEMA HAZUS floodplain data (see Flooding Profile, Section 4.4.3) with the building stock data from the census to calculate annualized loss to property and population using GIS. Historic property damage was also intersected with population density to illustrate Montana counties where flood damages could affect the most people GIS analysis was used to buffer ¼ mile from highways, railroads, and toxic release facilities and intersect this data with census tract data to estimate potential number of and value of buildings and critical facilities in hazard risk zones as well as vulnerable population. Percent area in the haz-mat buffer was intersected with population density to illustrate Montana counties where haz-mat impacts could affect the most people. A GIS layer was created using topographic data and past landslide events. This data was intersected with census tract data to determine potential number and value of buildings and critical facilities in hazard risk zones as well as vulnerable population. Percent area in the landslide buffer was intersected with population density to illustrate Montana counties where landslide impacts could affect the most people. Counties located adjacent to Yellowstone Park are considered highly-vulnerable to impacts from volcanic eruptions, mudflows, and ashfall. Counties west of the Continental Divide are considered vulnerable to impacts from volcanic eruptions in the Cascade Range in Washington State. Historic data was used to calculate hazard frequency and magnitude. This percentage was then applied to building stock data from the census to calculate annualized loss to property and population. Historic property damage was also intersected with population density to illustrate Montana counties where winter storm damages could affect the most people Historic data was also used to calculate hazard frequency and magnitude. This percentage was then applied to building stock data from the census to calculate annualized loss to property and population using GIS. Historic property damage was also intersected with population density to illustrate Montana counties where severe summer storm damages could affect the most people Historic data was used to calculate hazard frequency and magnitude. This percentage was then applied to an intersect of the Healthy Forest Restoration Act WUI layer with the building stock data from the census to calculate annualized loss to property and population using GIS. Historic property damage was also intersected with population density to illustrate Montana counties where wildfire damages could affect the most people. The methodology used in risk calculations presents a quantitative assessment of the vulnerability of the building stock, population, and critical facilities to individual hazards and cumulatively to all hazards. For hazards that are uniform across the jurisdiction (i.e. winter storms, wind/hail/tornadoes) the methodology presented below will determine annualized property loss. Exposure x Frequency x Hazard Loss Magnitude Where: Exposure = building stock, vulnerable population, or critical facilities at risk Frequency = annual number of events determined by calculating the number of hazard events / period of record Montana DES 4-7 November 2010

8 Magnitude = percent of damage expected calculated by: (property damage/# incidents)/ total building stock, critical facilities, or vulnerable population For hazards that are not uniform across the jurisdiction and instead occur in specific areas (e.g. flooding, wildfire, landslide, hazardous material incidents) the hazard risk area must factor into loss estimation calculations. Using GIS, the hazard risk area was intersected with the census tract data to determine the percentage of each census tract containing the hazard. This percentage was then applied to population and building stock data for each census tracts and summed to determine the vulnerability of the jurisdiction. For hazards without property damage data magnitude cannot be calculated and therefore, only the vulnerability of the building stock or population can be computed. Annualized loss estimates cannot be calculated using this approach. Probability of a hazard event occurring in the future was assessed based on hazard frequency over a 10 year period. Hazard frequency was based on the number of times the hazard event occurred divided by the period of record. If the hazard lacked a definitive historical record, the probability was assessed qualitatively based on regional history and other contributing factors. Probability was broken down as follows: Common greater than 1 event per year (frequency greater than 1). Frequent less than 1 event per year but greater than 1 event every 10 years (frequency greater than 0.1 but less than 1). Infrequent less than 1 event every 10 years (frequency less than 0.1). While loss estimates are presented as dollar values and number of facility affected for Building Exposure and Critical Exposure, numbers of people affected for Societal Exposure, they should not be interpreted literally as estimates of actual values. Total building and critical facility exposure was determined from HAZUS software and is an estimation. Due to data and modeling limitations the values presented are more appropriately used to evaluate the relative risk posed by the different hazard types. 4.4 HAZARD PROFILES Hazard profiles include a description of the hazard and the history of occurrence, the vulnerability and area of impact, and the probability and magnitude of future events. Where possible, the hazard profile identifies State-owned and operated facilities and infrastructure that are most vulnerable to the hazard. Risk assessment results were used to formulate the State s mitigation strategies. The remainder of this section presents hazard profiles in alphabetical order. Section is a risk assessment summary. Montana DES 4-8 November 2010

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