RECENT CHALLENGES IN CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT
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1 RECENT CHALLENGES IN CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT 26 th March 2015 Page 1
2 Content: 1. Changes in the Risk Landscape since 2008/09 2. The importance of Credit Insurance 3. The importance of «Credit Management Education Programs» 4. VfCMS s Minimum Standards for Credit Management (MRCM) Page 2
3 1. Changes in the Risk Landscape since 2008/09 Page 3
4 Latest disturbances to market stability Sovereign Crisis Recession Bank/Trust Crisis Real Estate Credit Defaults Page 4
5 Keeping in mind the overall risk landscape... Source: Greenwich Treasury Advisors LLC Corporate Risks Business Risk: Market Risk: Liquidity Risk: Credit Risk: Operational Risk: Sales Marketing Manufacturing Reputation Foreign Exchange Interest Rate Commodity Equity Inflation Funding risk LT vs. ST Credit lines Contingent capital Commercial Counterparty Settlement Systems Controls Regulatory Fraud Weather Natural disasters Take Manage Mitigate Page 5
6 ... and the risks involved in the world of credit Source: McKinsey (2010) Some Counterparty Risks Default Risk Replacement Risk Settlement Risk Risk that counterparty defaults and transaction fails to pay; double-default (or wrong-way) risk occurs when collateral is also impaired After a default, risk that replacing deal under same conditions with another counterpart is not possible Risk that the party involved in settlement, such as a correspondent bank, fails before transaction has completely settled Page 6
7 2. The importance of Credit Insurance Page 7
8 Knowing when to insure credit: Visualizing risk insurable risks The expected loss covers the biggest probability density Page 8
9 Credit insurance in the world of trading Source: Atradius, 2013 Outsourcing some parts of credit risk activities & providing a «Safety Net» Protection Financing Collection Information Default, political risks, breach of contract (e.g. unwillingness to pay) Buying receivables (factoring) Debt collection, if required News about counterparties, markets and regions However, also some disadvantages need to be considered! Page 9
10 Trading without Credit Insurance? You better think twice! Source: Own Source, Wikipedia, AIG 2013 Physical Trading Derivative Trading Major Players Market Practice Atradius Coface Euler Hermes Credit insurance for trading L/C Parent company guarantee Risks from Derivate Activities are NOT insurable! ISDA/CSA Credit Management Clearing Alternatives Pre-payment Factoring Exchange trading if according derivative market is liquid enough Advantages Parts of Credit Risk Management outsourced Financial compensation in case of default To expand sales to new and existing customers Bilateral, flexible, tailor made OTC transactions «Credit Management» via margining Clearing allows to eliminate «counterparty risk» Disadvantages Only physical trades insurable No limit that covers the entire trade no trade Line cancellation - higher risks Sophisticated IT-Infrastructure necessary to evaluate transactions on a counterpart s portfolio Page 10
11 3. The importance of «Credit Management Education Programs» Page 11
12 A credit manager s responsibility: The cruciality of expertise, so... Be aware that even «well known» counterparties do default! Therefore... Measure Risks Manage Limits Manage Collateral/ Bank Securities Manage Insurance Constantly monitor changes in counterparty behaviour Set and monitor limits for each counterparty just in time to avoid losses in case of imminent default Systematically reduce counterparties` risk exposures via e.g. collateral, L/C, prepayment Transfer risks to an underwriter Page 12
13 Managing credit risk without specialists? You better think twice! Expertise («Credit Specialists») Preparedness to act on any type of crisis Education Programs Q: What does the market need? Trainings. Offered by VfCMS (Controller Academy) New Risk Management Systems Page 13
14 A changing market environment: What changes in the role of credit risk managers?... «Classical» Credit Management «Modern» Credit Management Bad communication / little interaction with the company Especially the economic situation as a center of assessment Hardly any use of external data Management of applications of payment Central function of the company Advisory function for other departments (especially distribution and of top-management) Use of external sources of information Branching of important information Credit Manager as an «Accountant» of the company Credit Manager as an «Advisor» to the management Page 14
15 ... Exactly for such programs VfCMS is «Pioneer» in Switzerland! MRCM / Organisation (Credit-) Risk Management Best Practice / KPI s Legal Excellent seminar contents - Note: 8 afternoon sessions plus ½ day exam - Accounting / Solvency Check Balanced Scorecards Case Studies Dunning Process Page 15
16 4. VfCMS s Minimum Standards for Credit Management (MRCM) Page 16
17 Milestones: 1. 1 st edition was published in nd edition will be published in «Booklet MRCM» is also an essential part of VfCMS education program Page 17
18 Purpose: «MRCM inspire users to enhance their currently implemented Credit Management System» Foreword Definitions Organisation Employees Control Processes (IT-) Systems Audits Glossary VfCMS / Certification Page 18
19 Summary Page 19
20 Key take-aways Since the market environment has become way more complex in the past years Better think twice when: Selling without credit insurance Managing your credit risk without «credit specialists» Your credit policy is not reviewed regularly Page 20
21 Many thanks for your attention! And now let s start with Q & A Page 21
22 Food for thought: Questions for discussion Have you enough qualified personnel in the field of credit management? Are your colleagues properly educated to comply with the recent challenges in risk management? Are you prepared to invest in education programs? Do your underwriters meet your expectations? Do you believe you are all too dependent on your (credit) insurance? Page 22
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