21 st October 2009 Albury
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1 Commodity Trading for the 21 st Century Farmer The Future of Irrigation 21 st October 2009 Albury Andrew Woodhouse Phone Fax MOB
2 Introduction Australian location zones. Marketing alternatives Forward Contracts Pools Futures markets Swaps Options
3 Australian Port Zones
4 Newcastle Zone Port Kembla Zone Geelong Zone Potland dzone
5 East Coast Supply ATA East Coast Australia /10 - Projected Demand & Residual Supply Qld NNSW CNSW SNSW Vic TOTAL NSW TOTAL Wheat Barley Sorghum Other Total
6 East Coast Surplus/Deficits 0.80 East Coast Australia Supply Surp/Def Supply is very similar to 2005/06 season MM MT Qld NNSW CNSW SNSW Vic TOTAL Wht Bly Sor Other States and Regions
7 What can Grain Price Risk Management do for me? GPRM will NOT get you the best price every year. GPRM is NOT about picking market highs & lows. There is no magic formula that allows we simple folkt to beat themarket. kt GPRM strategies do not have to end in profit to achieve success. GPRM is not a toy that you use to GPRM is not a toy that you use to Play the market.
8 Develop a Marketing Plan Cost of Production Production Risks Pricing Objectives C h Fl Market Outlook Cash Flow Requirements
9 ASX Contracts Marketing Alternatives WAREHOUSING Forward Contracts SWAPS
10 Marketing Alternatives = Contract specifications Freight Rates Delivery period Grade Spreads Payment Period
11 Forward Contracts Multigrade contract. Port Based, so LESS rail freight to local depot. All hard wheat varieties and grades* deliverable. Since deregulation, Grade spreads have become an important feature when deciding who to sell your grain to. Protein & Screenings bonuses differ from buyer to buyer. Deliverable contract = basis risk. Canola Contracts Port or delivered based location. GM & Conventional contracts.
12 Spot Cash contract Contract negotiated AFTER grain has been harvested. Usually at harvest time Ex farm grain. Daily contract when contract prices are higher then cash To transfer grain out of Warehouse Covers specific Grade, Price and Location.
13 Pools Deferred 18 Months POST HARVEST 12 MONTHS Pre Harvest
14 ESR s v sepr s s EPR s = Estimated Port Return Prices are quoted at Port Freight charges need to be deducted ESR s = Estimates Silo Return Prices quoted UP country depot. What YOU need to determine when selling to a pool 1. Are prices NET or GROSS of fees. 2. The length of the pool 3. Payment periods 4. Protein & screening increments (Wheat)
15 Contract Considerations Each contract manages price risk differently no one contract alternative is right for everyone Different pricing considerations profit goals cash flow taxation producer risk, eg. Quality risk
16 Futures Market A FUTURES MARKET IS A REGULATED A FUTURES MARKET IS A REGULATED COMMODITIES EXCHANGE WHERE FUTURES CONTRACTS ARE TRADED
17 Futures Contracts TRADEABLE STANDARDISED FORWARD CONTRACTS
18 ASX Grain Futures
19 ASX Grain Futures Contracts Trading Hours 9.50 am to 5.00 pm (AEST) Track Futures Contracts Australian Milling Wheat Newcastle & Port Kembla per.1%) Australian Feed Barley Geelong & Portland Newcastle & Port Kembla Australian Canola Geelong, Newcastle, Port Kembla, Portland & Port Adelaide Australian Sorghum Brisbane & Newcastle
20 Standardised Features Attribute Advantage ASX Track Futures Market Domestic Rd Reduced dbasis Rik Risk Y Y Contract Novation Reduced Credit Risk Y Brokered Market Market Anonymity y Y Central Public Exchange Price Transparency Y Clearing Accounts Efficient & Accountable Y
21 Introduction to Basis What is basis and how is it quoted? What factors drive basis? Calculating domestic basis & measuring basis risk - Example. Calculate the basis Workbook exercise.
22 What is Basis? BASIS = The difference bt between an A$/mt cash price and a US c/bu futures price. Its that simple
23 What is Basis cond t? It s quoted in terms of the parent futures market. EG Australian wheat basis when compared to CME futures is quoted in USc/bu. ( a conversion is required) If the basis calculation gives a negative we use If the basis calculation gives a negative we use the term under, if it is positive we use the term over.
24 What Factors Drive Basis? BASIS can be driven Internationally Supply and Demand. Transport and logistics cost fluctuations. Quality differentials. Government policy. Domestically All of the above, especially S & D. Weather.
25 BASIS calculation 1. Futures price 5.20 c/bu (CME) 2. x convert Bu - t. = USDt USD/t 3. USD t./. AUD AUD.9280 = AUDt $ AUDt 4. Local cash price AUDt $200 - $ BASIS = OR $5.88 under
26 Basis in a chart Dil Daily QAWMF0:AX, QAWMF0AXQWZ9 QWZ9 Line, QAWMF0:AX, Last Trade(Last) 14/09/2009, 213 Line, QWZ9, Last Trade(Last) 16/09/2009, /11/ /09/2009 (SYD) Price AUD T BASIS Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 [Delayed]
27 Domestic Basis movements Newcastle Zone $248 Port Kembla Zone $252 Potland Zone $248 Geelong Zone $254
28 Basis Risk OCCURS WHEN THERE IS VARIABILITY BETWEEN THE SPOT CASH PRICE AND THE FUTURES PRICE. BASIS LOSSES RESULT FROM UNFAVOURABLE MOVEMENTS IN BASIS PRIOR TO A CASH SALE OR AFTER A FUTURES PRICE HAS BEEN LOCKED IN.
29 OPTIONS PUTS or CALLS Bought or sold on Futures exchange Can convert to a deliverable contract Insurance premium You determine the cost PUT = floor in the market CALL = GMP (guaranteed minimum price)
30 PUTS 7 Futures Price Put Option Floor In the Market 6 5 Price Premium / Insurance cost Time Daily Market Movement Put position / floor in the market
31 SWAPS Sell /Short on Futures exchange ONLY. NOT A CASH SALE. DO NOT lock in domestic basis. Can be sold in AUD or USD. Only protects 1 or 2 components of price. Bank pays margin call. At time of expiry or position bought back, you will receive profit / loss and are free to sell grain for cash
32 HANDY WEB SITES au com au com au com au
33 Disclaimer This data is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be used for specific trading strategies without consulting Advance Trading Australia. Because trading futures and options normally involves risk, determining the appropriateness of hedging with futures and options can only be made on a case-by-case basis. All information is based upon data that is believed to be reliable. However, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness lt of fthe dt data.
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