Optimising a LNG supply chain and its assets through performance prediction studies

Transcription

1 Optimising a LNG supply chain and its assets through performance prediction studies LNG Summit Barcelona 28 th September 2015 Fabien Treillaud DNV GL 1 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER

2 Introduction How to assess the impact of logistic operations and simulate the entire LNG supply chain? How to meet operational requirements, performance and production demand from offshore production to LNG terminals? How to estimate the economic performance of a project over its life? 2

3 Exporting Berthing Ships Berthing Importing Export system Approach, Berthing and Transfer Carriers Carry the LNG from platform to customer delivery point Approach, Berthing and Transfer Operation of approaching the port and start the transfer operation Import Terminal Customer delivery point 3

4 Exporting Berthing Ships Berthing Importing Oil carriers Fleet size Ship size Route Delays Rejected cargos Waterway constraints / Traffic Approach, Berthing and Transfer Metocean conditions Tugs Transfer method and thresholds Weather forecast Threshold for safe berthing and unloading Allocated window Berthing rights Early / Late arrivals Loading / Unloading Daylight limitations Import Terminal Multiple shippers operations Storage and inventory Design configurations Reliability Planned maintenance Peaking capacity / Annual entitlement 4

5 What impacts on a supply chain? Inspection, Maintenance and Reliability Utilities Availability Unit Capacities Terminal Planned reliability Maintenance Asset Performance Maintenance Strategies: Terminal strategy Vessel strategy Demand Limits Export Limits Market Production profiles Process configuration Routes Plant Characteristics Logistics Tank Size Berthing operations Operations 5

6 RAM analysis 6

7 Why RAM analysis? Preferred design concept? RAM Overall system availability? Downtime contributors? Decision support 7

8 Plant-Wide Reliability Analysis Evaluate impact of equipment/unit reliability on the ability to supply products to customers, by considering all relevant parameters: Network configuration Equipment/Unit performance Facilities capacity / maximum capacity Storage (feed, intermediate, and export) Logistics Issues Operations strategies Maintenance strategies Enables complete integrated studies capturing plant reliability, facilities capacity, storage, and logistics issues 8

9 Plant-Wide Reliability Analysis Plant-Wide Reliability Unit Utilisation Unit Availability Equipment Availability Component Reliability Individual Product Efficiency Individual Product Volumes Criticality Operational Flexibility Unit Interdependency Sales Strategy Storage Processes Unit Configuration Maintenance Strategy MTTR MTTF RCA FMEA 9

10 Supply chain modelling 10

11 Overview of the LNG value chain Subsurface Subsea Piping transportation (multiphase and gas) Offshore production facilities (incl. storage, processing & liquefaction) Onshore liquefaction and storage Transport vessel (LNG carriers) Terminal/storage End-user (gas distribution/ power generation) 11

12 Overview of the LNG value chain Subsurface Subsea Offshore production facilities (incl. storage, processing & liquefaction) Piping transportation (multiphase and gas) Onshore liquefaction and storage Pipeline Terminal/storage End-user (gas distribution/ power generation) 12

13 What could we change to enhance the performance? Increase the number of LNG carriers? Increase the export rate? Decrease the export rate? Increase the size of the storage tank? What are the limitations to these changes? What is the impact of the LNG plant availability and performance? 13

14 Transport Logistics modelling Berths are gathering point for import or export of products. Arrival and departure time control through berthing constraints, e.g. only berthing during day light hours (vary by month) Variable operating times, loading/unloading rate Transfer equipment failures, operational interruptions, berthing delays LNG carrier covers all types of transport systems that involve movement of batches of products from Suppliers to Customers. Size and number, Berthing and disembarking times Loading/unloading rate Transport times with variability / Transport failure modes Storage modelling allows operating rules to be placed upon nominated tanks. These rules are triggered by changes in the levels within the tank. Volume, Initial volume, Tank transfer rate Tank level management: Call Up BT, Suppress BT and Trigger 14

15 LNG carriers: Export branch Type: Storage Name: LNG export tank Tank transfer rate Max Volume Type: Ship Name: LNG carrier Max transfer rate Vessel size Type: Berth Name: LNG export berth Load rate Dock = export 15

16 LNG carriers: Import branch Type: Berth Name: LNG import berth Load rate: 150 mbbls/day Dock = Import Type: Storage Name: LNG import tank Tank transfer rate: 150 mbbls/day Max Volume: 300 mbbls 16

17 LNG plants: liquefaction and regasification terminals Equipment reliability (MTTF) Maintenance strategy (resources, spare, MTTR) Redundancy CAPEX/OPEX 17

18 Reliability data Most of the reliability data used to model this network comes from Offshore and Onshore Reliability Data (OREDA) handbook OREDA is a project organization sponsored by eight oil and gas companies with worldwide operations. OREDA has established a comprehensive databank with reliability and maintenance data for exploration and production equipment from a wide variety of geographic areas, installations, equipment types and operating conditions. Since offshore subsea and topside equipment items are the primary focus of OREDA, an adjusted version of data from OREDA is applied to RAM analysis of onshore facilities. 18

19 Results analysis Annual Production efficiency Subsystem Criticality 19

20 Contract loss Another important KPI is the number of delivery contracts failed throughout the life of the system. When understanding the performance of a gas network, the simulator is able to incorporate contractual nominations. Every instance where the production runs below the intended delivery, the simulator captures the size of the contract and the number of contracts. This is particularly important to gas networks where failing to meet the required production demand incurs fines. 20

21 Financial opportunity The average price of gas price is for 2014 is 3350 US$/mmscf ( (EIA, 2015). The amount of volume loss tracked by the system gives an overall financial loss for the venture life. 21

22 Financial opportunity Net Present Value is a financial KPI that allows comparisons to be made between different projects by using all the cash flows from the project and adjusting them to their present values by applying the appropriate discount factor. The projects then become directly comparable. 22

23 Summary 23

24 Quantitative Picture Of Performance Reliability Equipment performance data (failure frequencies) System configuration Availability Equipment/System uptime Maintainability Maintenance resources Shift constraints Mobilization delays Spares constraints Operability Logistic constraints Production/demand rates Storage Size Tanker Fleet and Operations Production Efficiency Unit Costs/Revenue Product price Man-hour/spares costs Transport costs Discount rates Achieved production Production losses Criticality Contract shortfalls Delayed cargoes Net Present Value Lost Profit Opportunity Slide 24

25 Successful Story - Korean Gas Corporation Seog-Soon Kim Senior research engineer This is what we gained: Better design of LNG plants based on RAM analysis Opportunities in new oil & gas business fields LNG customer s technical requirements satisfied

26 Successful Story Shell Global Solutions Celesta White Shell Projects and Technology This is what we gained: Saving up to 10% of capital expenditure on new projects Increased production by as much as 10% by identifying mitigation options Reduced contracted storage costs by up to 5% Reduced shipping costs by 5-10% 26

27 Successful Story Gasunie Rob Hermse TeamleadReliability Engineer in the Operational Excellence department at Gasunie Operations Celesta White Shell Projects and Technology This is what we gained: Saving up to 10% of capital expenditure on new projects Increased This is what production we gained: by as much as Optimization of design 10% by identifying mitigation Improve maintenance strategy options Valuable availability information, to Reduced optimize contracted the nation-wide storage and costs international by up gas to 5% transport obligations of Gasunie Reduced Transport shipping Services costs by 5-10% transfer stations simulated 27

28 Thank you Fabien Treillaud Performance Forecasting Manager West Med & Africa -DNV GL SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER 28