Gap Trading The Forex

Transcription

1 Gap Trading The Forex How To Profit from a Forgotten Trading Strategy that is Right 89.1% of the Time Special Report By Jason Fielder, Founder - ForexImpact.com Page 1

2 ALL CONTENT OF THIS REPORT IS COPYRIGHT 2011 SHARPTRADE PARTNERS LLC ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION IN ANY FORM IS PROHIBITTED. LEGAL DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this product has no regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Sharptrade Partners, LLC does not endorse or recommend any particular securities, currencies, or other financial products. The content published in this document is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as solicitation or any offer to buy or sell any spot currency transactions, financial instruments or other securities. Sharptrade Partners, LLC does not represent or guarantee that any content in this document is accurate, nor that such content is a complete statement or summary of the marketplace. Nothing contained in this document is intended to constitute investment, legal, tax, accounting or other professional advice and you should not rely on the reports, data or other information provided on or accessible through the use of this product for making financial decisions. You should consult with an appropriate professional for specific advice tailored to your situation and/or to verify the accuracy of the information provided herein prior to making any investment decisions. It s your money, and your responsibility. Page 2

3 Fill the Gap in Your Forex Trading with a Secret that is RIGHT 89.1% of the Time By Jason Fielder The trade no one is talking about in the Forex Market; that can make you money month after month. Gap trading has been around for decades in the stocks and futures markets, but it s largely ignored by most active traders in the Forex despite its incredibly high accuracy rate. Before I get into WHY that is, I want to first discuss the concept of gap trading. Here s how gap trading works: Anytime you see a change in price levels between the close and open of two consecutive bars on a chart, a gap has occurred. Traders use these gaps to predict short-term movements, and they ve proven over the years to be highly accurate indicators in almost every major market. A Forgotten Art But if gaps are such an easy (and profitable) way to trade the markets, why have they been largely ignored among Forex traders? Simple. Without a market close there s no opportunity for gaps to occur. In the past I ve observed gaps when there was a massive move in one of the pairs as well as very small, almost random gaps, but unless you re staring at a tick chart you probably won t see them. These gaps are not tradable because the gaps are too small and the spreads are too large to make a profit. No, to trade the gaps effectively you need a close, and as you re no doubt aware the Forex almost never closes. And unlike stock and commodity markets which close at the end of day, the Forex only closes down Friday night through Sunday night. So while most markets offer gap trading opportunities at the end of every day, you can really only trade the gaps once a week in the Forex. Then again, when gaps do occur they produce an accuracy of 89.1%, so their worth the wait. How To Trade Gaps In the Forex As I ve already stated gaps are a change in price levels between the close and open of two consecutive bars on a chart. (For our purposes, the gaps we are looking for occurs between the closing price on Friday to the opening price on Sunday.) Page 3

4 There are only three things that the price can do from Friday s close: - Open above Friday s close, called gapping up - Open below Friday s close, called gapping down or - Open at the same price as Friday s close, where there has been no gap. When a gap occurs in the Forex market, it can be a partial gap or a full gap. A partial gap occurs when the opening price is higher or lower than the previous closing price; but does not gap beyond the high or the low of the previous bar. Another way of saying it is that the gap has occurred within the high/low range of the previous bar. Example of Partial Gaps A partial gap up occurs when the opening price is less than the high price of the previous week. As you can see below, the arrow points to a partial gap up. Page 4

5 Example of a partial gap down: A partial gap down occurs when the opening price is greater than the low price of the previous week. The arrow shows where the partial gap down occurred. Page 5

6 Examples of Full Gaps A full gap occurs when the opening price opens beyond the previous bars high/low range. A full gap up has an opening price higher than the previous bars high. A full gap down has an opening price lower than the previous bars low. The example below of a full gap up occurs when the opening price is greater than the high price of the previous week. The arrow indicates where the full gap occurred. Page 6

7 The example below of a full gap down occurs when the opening price is less than the low price of the previous week. The arrow indicates where the full gap down occurred. Example of full gap down: Page 7

8 Variables in Forex Gap Trading The research that I have conducted on Forex gaps has shown that there is little to no difference when trading the partial gap compared to full gaps. The other interesting variable that I tested was which direction to trade the gaps. Do you buy into the direction of the gap or sell against the direction of the gap? For example, if the EUR/USD gaps down 20 pips; then do I buy or sell? I have found that whichever direction the gap occurs, you need to trade in the opposite direction. So: - If the currency pair gaps up then sell short. - If the pair gaps down then buy. I conducted the majority of the research on the four major pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY). Benefits of Gap Trading There are several nice things about trading gaps in the Forex market. I like the fact that the market opens on Sunday night at 5:00 pm EST. This gives you a chance to put on a trade before the work week begins. This trade is also easy to spot and there is nothing that can be interpreted wrong. There is either a gap or not. When a gap occurs you can place your stop loss and exit; then let the trade run. There is no reason to watch the market, unless you just want to. YOUR HOMEWORK: This coming Sunday night at 5:00 pm EST on the open of the Forex market watch for a gap to trade. If the pair gaps up sell short and if the pair gaps down then buy. Better still, scroll back on your Daily chart, and check out how often this happens (I think you'll be surprised!!) Page 8

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