Currency Solutions. Fresh from the lab Top trades September Adapting to your needs. October 14
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1 Currency Solutions Adapting to your needs Fresh from the lab Top trades September 2014 Niederdorfstrasse 88 CH-8001 Zurich Tel.: +41 (0) / October 14
2 Featured in this edition Trade & Investment ideas at a glance Review of currency solutions performance Scottish independence? An event to watch Best ofbothworlds equityandcurrency«cashedin» 2 October 14
3 Trade & investment Trade & investment ideas at a glance 1) Review of currency solutions performance thumbs up! Out of 24 recommendations 79% returned a positive performance (closed or mark-to-market) The OTC derivative portfolio recommendations generated a positive return of 74% on investment (long options, based on spent option premiums) a positive return of 22% on collateral (short / zero cost options structures) Annualised positive performance of 5.60% on bond-type, securitised trades 2) Scottishindependence? An eventtowatch Go longa 1 monthvolatilityswap (OTC ornote) Scottish referendum taking place on September 18 posing an event risk for the Pound recent polls suggest a closer race for a Yes vote and therefore more uncertainty Go long GBPUSD volatility into this event through a 1 month Volatility Swap (OTC or Note) with partial capital protection and a Strike at 6.30% Level of capital protection at 68.50% of investment 3) Best of both worlds equity and currency cashed in 11% annual coupon in CHF Benefit from your multi-asset environment exposure to Novartis & UBS stocks, and USDCHF currency 11% annual coupon in CHF ; 6 monthsmaturity Daily barrierobservation 80% barrierlevelon thetwostocks, 97% on thecurrency Payoff at maturity similar to a multi-barrier reverse convertible 3 October 14
4 Featured in this edition Trade & Investment ideas at a glance Review of currency solutions performance Scottish independence? An event to watch Best ofbothworlds equityandcurrency«cashedin» 4 October 14
5 Currency solutions performance Trade ideas achieved overall positive performance, adding value to your portfolio Bond-type recommendations returned an annualised return of 5.60% so far OTC derivative recommendations generated also substantial positive returns +74% on investment (long options, based on spent option premiums) +22% on collateral used (short/ zero cost option structures, based on needed collateral) Hit ratio 79% (out of 24 recommendations 19 returned a positive performance) All currency solutions split into two product types due to different performance tracking Securitised trades (fully funded certificates, notes) Expressed in percentage terms like a bond/index underlying Performance measuredin an index, basedat 100 at end ofoctober2013 OTC derivative trades (option premiums, collateral based) Expressed in option premiums Performance measuredin cash profit/lossper trade, thenaggregatedoverall recommendationsandsplitintolongoptiontradeswherepremium was spent, andshort/ zero cost option strategies that require collateral to be posted 5 October 14
6 Currency solutions performance Bond Type investments index chart* * Past performance is not an indicator of future returns 6 October 14
7 Featured in this edition Trade & investment ideas at a glance Review of currency solutions performance Scottish independence? An event to watch Best ofbothworlds equityandcurrency«cashedin» 7 October 14
8 Scottish independence? Top trade1 VolatilitySwap Note on GBPUSD longvolatility Underlying Index: 1 month GBPUSD Realised Volatility Tenor/Denomination: 1 month / 1 Mio. GBP Strike: 6.30 Vega Notional: GBP Capital Protection: 68.50% at maturity Issue Price: 100% Issuer: HSBC This solution has the following payoff characteristics: At maturity the investor will receive a redemption to the greater of Denomination x (100% + Return) or Denomination x Capital Protection Where as Return is calculated as follows: (Vega Notional/ Denomination) x (GBPUSD Realised Volatility Strike) x 100 Payoff table at maturity Realised volatility Redemption in % of investment October 14
9 Scottish independence? An eventtowatchmidseptember referendumtakingplaceon the18th Whatisitabout? A referendumwill takeplaceon September 18 astowhetherscotland shouldbe an independent country or not A potential «yes» votewouldposea fewunknownsthatleadtouncertainty, ie what currency would be used in an independent Scotland, amongst various other open questions Recentpollsshowan increasein «yes» votesto 42%, with 8% saying they re undecided and 48% would vote«no» UK government reiterated there is no contingencyplan in caseofa «yes» vote Basedon theabove, weexpectmore uncertainty over the next few weeks, leading to higher volatility Sources: ACT, whatscotlandthinks.org, HSBC, Barclays, MS 9 October 14
10 Featured in this edition Trade & investment ideas at a glance Review of currency solutions performance Scottish independence? An event to watch Best ofbothworlds equityandcurrency«cashedin» 10 October 14
11 Best of both worlds -Equity & Currency Top trade2 Yieldenhancementon yourchf cash holdings, Coupon 11% p.a. Underlyings: Novartis, UBS, USDCHF Tenor: 6 months Denomination: CHF Fix Coupon: 11.00% p.a. (paid to the investor in any case) Barriers: 80% for stocks, 97% for the currency (barriers observed at daily close) Strikes: At-the-money-spot Issue Price: 99.00% Issuer: SocGen(or similar) The investor will receive a redemption at maturity according to the following formula: IfnoBarrierhasbeentouched, theinvestorwill receiveback hisinitialchf investment plus the Coupon Ifat least oneoftheunderlyingstouchedthebarriertheinvestorwill getrepaid as follows: Ifall Underlyingscloseabovetherelevant Strike at maturitytheinitialchf investment plus the Couon If at least one Underlying closes below the relevant Strike at maturity delivery of the Underlying with the lowest performance, the Coupon is paid in anycasein CHF 11 October 14
12 Best of both worlds -Equity & Currency Few words on the Underlyings Novartis Novartis presented very strong data for its chronic heart failure drug LCZ696 LZC696 salesareforecastedbetween5 and7.3bn USD UBS Restructuring and dividend payout potential intact USDCHF RecentECB actionputspressureon EURCHF andthesnb totakefurther policy steps This will lifttheusd vschf 12 October 14
13 Best of both worlds -Equity & Currency Price history of the underlyings over the past two years Sources: ACT, Bloomberg 13 October 14
14 Currency Solutions Team Our goal is your performance Andre Meyer Partner UBS Managing Director, Head FX Structured Solutions EMEA UBS, London Director, Head FX Structured Solutions UK/ Scandinavia UBS, Zurich Senior FX Structurer UBS, Zurich Junior Trader FX/ PM Felix Adam CEO J. P. Morgan, Zurich Head of Proprietary Trading Chemical Bank, Zurich FX Trader HandelsfinanzMidland Bank, Geneva FX Trader Bank Vontobel& Co., Zurich Apprenticeship, Junior Trader & Cash Manager Team Members Felipe Pillar, Roger Sieber, Mark Schibli and Andre Chamoun. Our six team members are FX professionals having joined from leading banks such as Citi Bank, Commerzbankand UBS. Together they offer you more than 60 years of accumulated FX experience. 14 October 14
15 Contact& Location Please contact us! ACT Currency Partner AG André Meyer Partner, Currency Solutions Niederdorfstrasse Zurich Switzerland Tel direct.: + 41 (0) andre.meyer@act-currency.ch Internet: LinkedIn: 15 October 14
16 About ACT Currency Partner Your Currency Specialist Who we are Currency and precious metals specialist based in Zurich, founded in 1992 What we offer Absolute Return Strategies FX Prime Execution Currency Solutions Hedge Fund Incubation What we aim for Customized currency solutions Superior return enhancement & risk reduction Best Price Execution 16 October 14
17 Disclaimer Please note FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE. THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS COMMONLY OBTAINABLE IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING MAY WORK FOR YOU AS WELL AS AGAINST YOU. THE RISK OF LOSS CAN THEREFORE PROVE SUBSTANTIAL. HENCE FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS ONLY SUITABLE FOR SOME INVESTORS. THE PRESENTATION FROM ACT CURRENCY PARTNER DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS NOR THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OF SPECIFIC INDIVIDUAL USERS. MANAGED CURRENCY ACCOUNTS MAY BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL CHARGES FOR MANAGEMENT AND ADVISORY FEES. IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR SUCH ACCOUNTS TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT TRADING PROFITS IN ORDER TO AVOID DEPLETION OR EXHAUSTION OF THEIR ASSETS DUE TO THE CHARGES. THEREFORE THE ACT CURRENCY PARTNER DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT CONTAINS A COMPLETE DESCRIPTION OF THE PRINCIPAL RISK FACTORS AND EACH FEE TO BE CHARGED TO YOUR ACCOUNT BY THE TRADING MANAGER. YOU OUGHT TO CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS REGARDING THE SUITABILITY FOR YOUR PERSONAL SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT. CERTAIN INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS, WHICH ARE SUBJECT TO RISK, SPECULATION AND UNCERTAINTY. ALL INFORMATION PRESENTED ONLY POINTS OUT AS OF THE DATE IN WHICH THEY ARE ISSUED. ACT CURRENCY PARTNER UNDERTAKES NO OBLIGATION TO PUBLICLY UPDATE OR REVISE ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. ACT CURRENCY PARTNER MAY PROVIDE ADDRESSES OR HYPERLINKS WHICH LEAD YOU OUT OF THE PRESENTATION. THE EXISTENCE OF ANY SUCH LINKS SHALL NOT CONSTITUTE ANY KIND OF ENDORSEMENT, REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY OF SUCH LINK. NOTHING IN THIS PRESENTATION CONSTITUTES ANY INVESTMENT ADVICE, RECOMMENDATION AS TO THE SUITABILITY OF ANY PRODUCT OR SECURITY. THIS PRESENTATION IS INTENDED FOR GENERAL INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. ALL CONTENT, PRODUCTS AND SERVICES ARE PROVIDED TO YOU WITHOUT ANY KIND OF EITHER EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED SURETY FOR COMPLETENESS OR ACCURACY. THIS INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE TITLE, NON-INFRINGEMENT, SECURITY OR ACCURACY. ACT CURRENCY PARTNER USES A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF EFFORT TO INCLUDE UPDATED AND ACCURATE INFORMATION. NEVERTHELESS ERRORS OR OMISSIONS SCARCELY OCCUR, FOR WHICH ACT CURRENCY PARTNER DOES NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF ANY INFORMATION SUPPLIED. ACT CURRENCY PARTNER ACCEPTS NO LIABILITY OR RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE CONTENTS OF THIS PRESENTATION OR ANY OTHER SITE, WHETHER LINKED TO THIS PRESENTATION OR NOT, NOR ANY CONSEQUENCES FROM ACTING UPON THE CONTENTS OF ANOTEHR SITE. UNAUTHORISED USE OF ACT CURRENCY PARTNER S PRESENTATION INCLUDING ANY MISUSE OF INFORMATION POSTED HEREIN IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. ANY USE OF THIS PRESENTATION SHALL BE SOLELY SUBJECT TO SWISS LAW. 17 October 14
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