TRACKER CERTIFICATE ON THE GLOBAL EDUCATION BASKET. SSPA Category: Tracker Certificates October 2014
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1 TRACKER CERTIFICATE ON THE GLOBAL EDUCATION BASKET SSPA Category: Tracker Certificates October 2014
2 SHIFTING LIFESTYLES: GLOBAL EDUCATION Global education, as reported in 2013, is worth an estimated USD trillion. By 2017, global education is expected to become a USD trillion market. The global education sector (public and private) was worth an estimated USD 4.5trn in 2013; being therefore the second-largest global market after healthcare, according to education consultancy GSV Advisors. Demographic change, greater use of technology and higher spending levels by emerging countries underpin annual growth forecasts of 7% to 2017 (GSV estimate). The high cost of education is placing a burden on cash-strapped governments, which means increasing dependence on private spending and a growing role of for-profit education companies. The focus will be directed towards affordability and results, which is why we believe that the growth drivers for education seem to be coming from e-learning, for-profit education and language learning as well as from emerging markets increasing focus and spending on education overall (notably in China and Brazil). The rising online enrolment in higher education degrees and credit-granting courses is likely to be a key trend shaping higher education into 2020, especially in the US and Brazil. Universities determination to generate additional revenues and to lower operating and student costs are crucial factors increasing their demand for education technology solutions. 2
3 South Korea Japan UK US France Switzerland Germany Brazil China* OECD average GLOBAL EDUCATION Education is a considerable factor for the potential growth of an economy, critical for innovation and it shows positive spill-over effects on society. Post-secondary education is rising emerging markets with catch-up potenial % share with tertiary education 70% years old years old 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% GDP per cap levels compared to gross enrolment ratios in tertiary education Gross enrolment ratio (tertiary education) R² = * no data for China 25-34y Source: OECD, Julius Baer PPP USD GDP per capita, log scale Source: International Monetary Fund, OECD, Oxford Economics, Julius Baer 3
4 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Apart from China, also India, Indonesia and Brazil will play a larger role in future post-secondary education in terms of student mobility and enrolments. Consumer demand for education is high in emerging markets Despite slowing student growth, house-holds will keep spending on education rebased, age 20-24y milllion of students China 13.1% Turkey 11.4% India 11.1% Brazil 9.8% Indonesia 9.5% Russia 6.8% South Africa US 2.1% 5.5% E 2030E 2040E Tert. enrol. (rhs) US 0 UK 1.6% China India 0% 5% 10% 15% % household income spent on education, 2011 Brazil Switzerland Russia Source: Bureau of labour Statistics, Office of National Statistics, Credit Suisse, Julius Baer Source: United Nations Population Statistics, Pearsons, Julius Baer 4
5 ONLINE EDUCATION Online education will evolve as an incremental segment and cater mainly to students who rely on selfstudy, such as professional skill training and continued education. Number of US college students taking at least one online course The number of online education users in China is expected to surpass 120m by 2017E mn % share mn % 8 40% E 16% CAGR 18% 7 35% % % 25% % 12% 4 20% 80 10% 3 15% 60 8% % 5% 0% students taking at least one online course (lhs) E 2016E Online education users (lhs) 6% 4% 2% 0% % of total enrolments (rhs) y/y growth (rhs) Source: Babson survey, Pearson, Julius Baer Source: iresearch, Deutsche Bank, Julius Baer 5
6 EDUCATION MARKET SIZE The size of the education market is large and growing, especially the for-profit and the elearning segments. Global education expenditure with forecasts (2012, 2015E, 2017E) USD bn 6'000 Global market size on elearning, language and for-profit postsecondary education USD bn 300 5'000 4'000 3'000 2'000 1' E 2017E Corporate & Govt. Learning E 2015E 2016E 2017E Global for-profit postsecondary Postsecondary Global elearning K-12 Global language learning Source: GSV Advisors, Julius Baer Source: GSV Advisors, Julius Baer 6
7 SHIFTING LIFESTLYES: GLOBAL EDUCATION We mapped the investment universe for the global education theme across a number of sectors value chains to highlight the diverse range of entry points available to the theme. Sectors K-12 and childcare Post-secondary, colleges and universities Education material and content Online education, EdTech and education hardware Growth drivers Middle-class consumers in the emerging markets tend to invest more in education, either to advance their careers or give their children a good start Increasing dependence on private spending A growing role of for-profit education companies increasing the focus on affordability and results Many emerging markets spending high proportions of household income on education, and this trend is expected to continue Digital is an enabling technology that is transforming the textbook publishing industry, but is also disruptive to traditional business models because it is cheap and easy to distribute. Online learning is increasingly used as a complementing learning tool. Many non-profit institutions are moving from class-room to online learning benefitting education technology (EdTech) enablers. Major equity players (by % sales) China: TAL Education (n.c.) New Oriental Education(n.c.) Nord Anglia Education (n.c.) Brazil: Kroton Educacional (n.c.) Estacio Participacoes (n.c.) United States: Apollo Education Group (n.c.) Grand Canyon Education(n.c.) Pearson (n.c.) Reed Elsevier (Buy) Apple (Hold) Google (Buy) 2U Inc (n.c.) Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer; n.c. =not covered by Julius Baer, Julius Baer offers no recommendation 7
8 STOCKS WITH SIGNIFICANT EXPOSURE TO THE THEME We mapped the investment universe for the global education theme across a number of sectors value chains to highlight the diverse range of entry points available to the theme. Company Theme focus TAL Education K-12 Online education JB Rating ISIN Ccy Description n.c. US USD The largest pure play on K-12 tutoring in China. The Company offers comprehensive tutoring services to K-12 students covering core academic subjects, including mathematics, English, Chinese, physics, chemistry and biology. New Oriental Education & Technology Group K-12 Online education n.c. US USD Largest network of learning centres in China. New Oriental Education & Technology Group offers foreign language training, test preparation courses for admissions and assessment tests mainly in China, primary and secondary school education, educational content, online education. Nord Anglia Education K-12 n.c. KYG6583A1022 USD Nord Anglia operates one of the largest networks of premium private schools (British style K-12 schools) in the world. 35% of premium school revenues (CY13) came from China, 29% from Europe, 18% from Middle East/Southeast Asia and 18% from North America. Apollo Group Inc. Post-secondary Online education n.c. US USD Apollo is one of the largest providers of postsecondary education in the US. Its 112 locations enrol over 250,000 students, many of whom work full time. Apollo owns University of Phoenix which is the largest provider of online degrees in the world. Grand Canyon Education Kroton Educacional SA Post-secondary Online education K-12 Post-secondary Online education n.c. US38526M1062 USD Owns the Grand Canyon University, a regionally accredited nondenominational Christian school based in Phoenix. The school offers 120 BA, MA and Doctorate programs, primarily in education, business and healthcare for more than 50,000 students online and at its Phoenix campus. n.c. BRKROTACNOR9 BRL Kroton is one of the largest private education companies in Brazil and the world, operating in the primary, secondary and postsecondary education segments. It has 53 higher education units, with a presence in 39 cities in 10 Brazilian states and 447 distance-learning graduation centres. The company also has 810 associated schools in all Brazilian states, as well as five units in Japan and one in Canada. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer; n.c. =not covered by Julius Baer, Julius Baer offers no recommendation 8
9 STOCKS WITH SIGNIFICANT EXPOSURE TO THE THEME We mapped the investment universe for the global education theme across a number of sectors value chains to highlight the diverse range of entry points available to the theme. Company Estacio Participacoes SA Theme focus Post-secondary Online education JB Rating ISIN Ccy Description n.c. BRESTCACNOR5 BRL Estacio is one of the largest private-sector post-secondary groups in Brazil in terms of number of students enrolled in distance learning and campus programmes of undergraduate and graduate courses. Its network caters to middle and lower middle-income workers through a university, four university centres, 34 colleges, and 52 distance learning units. Pearson Education content Transition from print to digital Reed Elsevier Education content Transition from print to digital n.c. GB GBP Pearson s core business areas are educational (83% of revenue and 82% of EBITA in 2013) and consumer publishing, and information services. Pearson has a leading position in the provision of school and college textbooks, digital learning resources, and assessment materials. Buy NL EUR Reed Elsevier is a broad-based publishing and information services business. The Elsevier academic publishing unit (35% of revenues) is a global leader in a resilient industry. 2U Inc Education technology n.c. US90214J1016 USD 2U enables non-profit colleges and universities to bring their accredited degree programmes online (in social work, data science, public administration, healthcare, laws and industrial relations) via a cloud-based software-as-a-service (SaaS) platform, with experiences and outcomes that match or exceed on-campus offerings. Apple Education technology Hold US USD Apple is a player in education hardware and the integration of technology into classroom instruction. Areas of exposure include Mac (computers and laptops); ipads in education (over 4.5m sold to US-based education institutions in 2013); content (over 50,000 education apps); software (ilife, iworks and itunes U). Google Education technology Buy US38259P5089 USD Google is an education play via its online products (Goole Apps for Education, Google Earth, YouTube for Schools, Search, Google Drive); its effort to digitalise books (Google Books) and its dominant position in many mobile devices (Android platform) used as a learning tool. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer; n.c. =not covered by Julius Baer, Julius Baer offers no recommendation 9
10 SUMMARY LIST OF STOCKS FOR GLOBAL EDUCATION List of selected stocks with significant exposure to Global Education in the areas of K-12, postsecondary education, online education and EdTech (prices as of 27 October 2014). Market Exposure Currency JB Last Price ESG cap Performance (%) Company to theme Country rating price target rating (USD bn) 1M 3M 12M P/E 12m fwd Div yld (%) Global Education ESTACIO PARTICIPACOES SA High BRAZIL BRL n.c n.c. BBB KROTON EDUCACIONAL SA High BRAZIL BRL n.c n.c. B PEARSON PLC High BRITAIN GBp n.c. 1'139.0 n.c. AA REED ELSEVIER NV High BRITAIN EUR Buy AAA NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATIO-SP ADR High CHINA USD n.c. 22 n.c n.a. TAL EDUCATION GROUP- ADR High CHINA USD n.c n.c n.a. NORD ANGLIA EDUCATION INC High HONG KONG USD n.c. 16 n.c n.a n.a. 2U INC High UNITED STATES USD n.c n.c n.a. n.a. n.a. APOLLO EDUCATION GROUP INC High UNITED STATES USD n.c n.c n.a. APPLE INC Medium UNITED STATES USD Hold A GOOGLE INC-CL A Medium UNITED STATES USD Buy BBB GRAND CANYON EDUCATION INC High UNITED STATES USD n.c n.c n.a. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer; n.c. =not covered by Julius Baer, Julius Baer offers no recommendation 10
11 TRACKER CERTIFICATE ON THE GLOBAL EDUCATION BASKET Product data Issuer Lead Manager Rating Bank Julius Baer & Co. AG, Zürich Bank Julius Baer & Co. AG, Zürich Moody s A1 Participation 100% Currency Composite USD Fixing date 7 November 2014 Maturity date 7 November 2016 Additional details No dividend reinvestment Listed at the SIX Swiss Exchange Valor / ISIN / Symbol / CH / JFCHG In subscription until 7 November 2014, 12:00 CET Source: Julius Baer 11
12 TRACKER CERTIFICATE ON THE GLOBAL EDUCATION BASKET Summary The product suits investors who are looking for alternative source of income intend to participate in a diversified equity portfolio believe in the upside potential of the underlying stocks and have a positive view on the investment theme Global Education have a high risk tolerance. 12
13 Equity Derivatives Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd. Bahnhofstrasse 36 P.O. Box CH-8010 Zürich Tel. +41 (0) derivatives.juliusbaer.com
14 IMPORTANT LEGAL DISCLAIMER (1/2) This publication constitutes marketing material and is not the result of independent financial research. Therefore the legal requirements regarding the independence of financial research do not apply. The information and opinions expressed in this publication were produced by Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Zurich, as of the date of writing and are subject to change without notice. This publication is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Julius Baer to make any investments. Opinions and comments of the authors reflect their current views, but not necessarily of other Julius Baer entities or any other third party. Services and/or products mentioned in this publication may not be suitable for all recipients and may not be available in all countries. Clients of Julius Baer are kindly requested to get in touch with the local Julius Baer entity in order to be informed about the services and/or products available in such country. This publication has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Before entering into any transaction, investors should consider the suitability of the transaction to individual circumstances and objectives. Nothing in this publication constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for individual circumstances, or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation for any specific investor. Julius Baer recommends that investors independently assess, with a professional advisor, the specific financial risks as well as legal, regulatory, credit, tax and accounting consequences. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Performance forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. The investor may not get back the amount invested. Although the information and data herein are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, no representation is made that the information is accurate or complete. Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Zurich, its subsidiaries and affiliated companies do not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of this publication. Investments in funds mentioned in this publication should only be made after a thorough reading of the current prospectus and/or the fund regulations, the current simplified prospectus and articles of association, the latest annual and semi-annual reports. The documents can be obtained free of charge upon request. The value of the units and the return they generate can go down as well as up. Performance values are calculated without taking account of commissions and costs that result from selling and buying back investments. Structured products (e.g. baskets, certificates) are complex financial products and therefore involve a higher degree of risk. They are intended for investors who understand and are capable of assuming all risks involved. Structured products may therefore only be sold to experienced investors and require additional advice regarding the products specific risks. The value of the products is not only dependent on the development of the underlying, but also on the creditworthiness of the issuer, which may vary over the term of the product. In case of the issuer s insolvency or bankruptcy, the investor in the product may lose his entire investment. Before entering an investment all documents related to the issue of the described structured product has to be read. The full terms of the respective structured product may be obtained free of charge. 14
15 IMPORTANT LEGAL DISCLAIMER (2/2) The investor may be exposed to currency risk, because the product or underlyings of the product are denominated in other currencies than that of the country in which the investor is resident. The investment as well as its performance are therefore exposed to currency fluctuations and may increase or decrease in value. This publication may only be distributed in countries where its distribution is legally permitted. This information is not directed to any person in any jurisdiction where (by reason of that person s nationality, residence or otherwise) such publications are prohibited. Switzerland: In Switzerland this publication is distributed by Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Zurich, authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA. All investment funds mentioned in this publication are registered for public offering in Switzerland. Structured products do not constitute a participation in a collective investment scheme. Therefore, they are not supervised by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA and the investor does not benefit from the specific investor protection provided under the Swiss Federal Act on Collective Investment Schemes. This publication is not a simplified prospectus as stated in Art. 5 of the Swiss Federal Act on Collective Investment Schemes. Monaco: Bank Julius Baer (Monaco) S.A.M., an institution approved by the Minister of State for Monaco and the Bank of France, is sending to its clients this publication issued by Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Zurich, an institution in Switzerland under the supervision of the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA. United States: NEITHER THIS REPORT NOR ANY COPY THEREOF MAY BE SENT, TAKEN INTO OR DISTRIBUTED IN THE UNITED STATES OR TO ANY US PERSON. This document may contain information obtained from third parties, including ratings from rating agencies such as Standard & Poor s, Moody s, Fitch and other similar rating agencies. Reproduction and distribution of third-party content in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of the related third-party. Third-party content providers do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of any information, including ratings, and are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such content. Third-party content providers give no express or implied warranties, including, but not limited to, any warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. Third-party content providers shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including lost income or profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of their content, including ratings. Credit ratings are statements of opinions and are not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold or sell securities. They do not address the market value of securities or the suitability of securities for investment purposes, and should not be relied on as investment advice. Julius Baer Group,
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