Reviving the fixed line

Transcription

1 Reviving the fixed line Triple-play slows mobile substitution and pushes broadband market consolidation A light content strategy can boost growth and create value for telcos Telcos have the opportunity to the TV of the future, in partnership with media and software companies as well as equipment manufacturers However, individual id country scenarios show huge differences March 2009

2 0 Introduction 8th edition Arthur D. Little Exane BNP Paribas study «Slowly but surely : No ARPU growth before 2005» «Back on the road but who s got the map?» «Leaders hit back» «More efforts required» «Facing off on convergence» «Caution - work ahead» «In the eye of the telecom-media storm» «Telecom-Internet- Media : Reviving the fixed line 40 companies interviewed in Europe 40 companies interviewed in Europe 40 companies interviewed in Europe 50 companies interviewed in Europe 70 companies interviewed in Europe 80 companies interviewed in Europe 90 companies interviewed in Europe 95 interviews in more than 80 companies in Europe

3 0 Introduction Arthur D. Little study 2009 vs. 2008: what has changed? 2008: In the eye of the Telecom-Media storm 2009: Reviving the fixed line 50% of European will have mobile broadband by 2012 and operator s efforts will lead to a fixed and mobile network convergence Triple-play limits fixed-mobile broadband substitution and increases consolidation. Telcos are also threatened by cable and satellite competition Telecom and media players will move towards content distribution thanks to the all-ip development Content is a promising lead with a 4 Bn revenue opportunity by 2015 for European incumbents. It remains however insufficient and highly challenged by internet, cable and system players Telecom operators will sustain a growing pressure on the value chain, mainly from Internet and system players The current economic context is a window of opportunity for telecom operators to develop content related services mainly through partnerships

4 Agenda 1 Triple-play: a success story in a gloomy telecom media ecosystem 2 Content: promising niches but content alone is insufficient and challenged 3 Operators response: content related services namely through partnerships facilitated by the crisis

5 1 Triple-play: a success story in a gloomy telecom media ecosystem Fixed revenues are increasingly under pressure due to the threat of mobile broadband substitution and mounting competition from alternative players (cable or satellite TV / ISP) Mobile broadband market share Pay TV operators broadband market share 15% % pop e 12,4% 70% 60% 60% 10% 5% 0% 75% 7,5% 6,0% 3,4% 27% 2,7% 1,8% 1,4% 1,7% 0,8% 0,4% Austria Norway Spain UK France 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 40% 33% 33% 14% 7% 6% Offers Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited 5GB 1GB 7,2Mbit/s 7,2Mbit/s 3Mbit/s 7,2Mbit/s 7,2Mbit/s 15 /month 61 /month 45 /month 26 /month 50 /month Note: Offer benchmark Nov. 2008; Fair use policy applies to unlimited offers 0% US Belgium UK Austria Spain Germany France Broadband market share of Pay TV operators (cable or satellite)

6 1 Triple-play: a success story in a gloomy telecom media ecosystem Triple-play offers have helped incumbent players to reduce fixed lines loss Austria: Telekom Austria Sweden: TeliaSonera Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Access lines ADSL TV Access lines ADSL TV Halving the rate of line losses over the period would increase an incumbent operator s valuation by 27%. Note: net adds in K clients

7 1 Triple-play: a success story in a gloomy telecom media ecosystem In France, telecom operators managed to protect fixed revenues thanks to triple-play offers, through ARPU stabilization and lower competitive pressure on the fixed-broadband market Broadband ARPU Consolidation / month Competitive pressure (fixed lines) Q1 04 Q3 04 Q1 05 Q3 05 Q1 06 Q3 06 Q1 07 Q3 07 Q1 08 Q HHI France HHI Europe

8 Agenda 1 Triple-play: a success story in a gloomy telecom media ecosystem 2 Content: promising niches but content alone is insufficient and challenged 3 Operators response: content related services namely through partnerships facilitated by the crisis

9 2 Content: promising niches but content alone is insufficient & challenged With media usage shifting towards the internet and IP-based services, telcos can capture a significant part of this new audience and the value created Media usage evolution h/week/capita Radio / Press 50 1, ,2 Traditional TV -1,2 New TV 3 Internet Penetration 1,6 Internet Usage 2, Traditional Media +0,1 New usages : TV + Internet +6,7 40 Total 2004 Total 2007

10 2 Content: promising niches but content alone is insufficient & challenged Content and related-services represent an additional 40% to the European Telecom market 2008 TIME ecosystem across Europe 1 Recorded Music Content & services 4 Software Video Games³ 126 Mds 11,4 Bn 239 Mds 12,3Bn -5,8% (+2%) (+6%) TV services 2 +20% 79 Bn 3,4% Filmed entertainment 5 23,4 Bn -1,6% Telecom market 330 Bn +3,6% Software & computer services 239 Bn +6 % Hardware 234 Mds (+3%) Consumer electronics 69 Bn +5,4 % Telecom equipment 57 Bn +1,8 % Computer hardware 108 Bn +3 % 3 includes Console, online, mobile, PC games & advertising ¹ Europe includes Western Europe & Russia 4 includes physical & digital distribution (online & mobile) ² includes Advertising, Pay Tv & licences 5 includes box office, home video sell through( physical & online), rentals (in store & online)

11 2 Content: promising niches but content alone is insufficient & challenged Pay TV VoD Advertising The «Light premium» strategy, which allows for differentiation and ARPU generation with low investment, seems to be the best approach for telcos illustrative Description Cost Direct benefits Impact NPV 2015 High premium --- Exhaustive offer of latest movies and exclusive rights for most premium sports 600M per year ARPU /month -176M Light premium Exclusive selection of content with program costs representing15-25% of the average investment t in high h premium content t M per year ARPU /month +316M Distribution Distribution of an offer which has been conceived and packaged by a content player = ARPU + ~10% of the pack +130M Source:. Net present value (NPV) for an incumbent with +40% of broadband market share

12 2 Content: promising niches but content alone is insufficient & challenged Pay TV VoD Advertising New media consumption patterns have emerged leading to the growth of the VoD market Fragmentation Delinearization Interactivity Audience evolution in France DVR penetration ti in Europe (% HH) 100% 80% 60% 40% 1,1%2,3%5,9% 4,5% 7,5% 8,5% 9,5%10,9%11,2% 11,3% 11,5% 11,6% 96% 93%92%91% 89%89%88%86% 88%86% 83% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 20% 4% 0% DTT channels Others Hertzien channels % 0% France Germany Italy UK Average W. Eu.

13 2 Content: promising niches but content alone is insufficient & challenged Pay TV VoD Advertising VOD, an attractive market for telecom operators, but with high competitive pressure VOD revenues in Europe VoD players in the USA & Europe along their position in the media-telco value chain M 2000 Producti Edition Diffusion on USA Equipme nt 1500 CAGR % aux US CAGR % Europe p 2009p 2010p 2011p

14 2 Content: promising niches but content alone is insufficient & challenged Pay TV VoD Advertising In terms of positioning along key success factors for the Pay TV and video market, telcos are at par with internet and media players but cable operators have some advantages TV / VoD key success factors Telco Cable * Internet Media System Price & offer simplicity Depth & freshness of catalogues Visioning Quality Ease of use Directly on TV User friendly search Source: Financials reports, Nielsen Net Ratings, Interviews, Arthur D. Little analysis Note : *) Cable = similar to Comcast, i.e. strong BB market share (25%), & pay-tv core business, System = similar to Xbox or Samsung

15 2 Content: promising niches but content alone is insufficient & challenged Telecom operator to preserve the value of their triple-play customer base and to capture additional value from opportunities in content and related services Threats and opportunities for incumbents fixed revenues by ,0 0,5 0, ,5-1,0-1, ,0 Threats from internet and system players Threat from cable and Opportunity from content and satellite actors related services Threats from Internet players Their video offer could lead to a price pressure on operators tripleplay Pay-TV Investment in servers (ex. Google Openedge projet) Cable and satellite players increaseing their fixed VoD Threats from System players broadband market share User friendly gaming consoles with services (VoD, games ) Local and targeted advertising Connected TV (ex. YouTube available on Samsung TVs) Source: ARCEP, DigiWorld 2008, PWC, JPMorgan, Arthur D Little analysis

16 2 Content: promising niches but content alone is insufficient & challenged By 2015, content and related services will represent a revenue opportunity of 4Md for European incumbents, 65% of which are generated by Pay-TV Revenue opportunity from content and services for a European incumbent Adver- Pay-TV VoD Total tising Revenue opportunity in 2015 in Europe (in Bn ) /month per 2008 fixed line Opportunity as a % of 2008 e revenue (%) Impact on CAGR (%) ,8 0,6 0,3 2,7 4,8 1,6 0,8 7,2 0,7 0,2 0,1 1,0 Incumbent s content revenue potential in Europe is estimated at ~4 Mds in 2015 A content strategy could result in an additional CAGR of 1% over the period of The total value generated by content represents ~7% of an incumbent s 2008 revenue Pay-TV alone represents 65% of the potential gain. This opportunity varies between countries The rapidly growing but crowded d VoD and advertising markets represent a smaller share of this opportunity

17 Agenda 1 Triple-play: a success story in a gloomy telecom media ecosystem 2 Content: promising niches but content alone is insufficient and challenged 3 Operators response: content related services namely through partnerships facilitated by the crisis

18 3 Operators response: content related services namely through partnerships facilitated by the crisis The economical crisis: an opportunity for telcos? More time to react and forge partnerships as traditional competitors less aggressive Telcos with and expected revenue decline of 2,5% (fixed incumbents) in 2009 are less affected by the economic crisis than other sectors thanks to recurring revenues and leeway in terms of opex & capex management Advertising evolution: - 10% in 2009 e Advantages in relation to other sectors: Internet players, strongly affected by the drop in advertising revenues (-10% in 2009 e ) will have less money to invest in innovative services or engage in M&A Handset sales evolution: - 15% in 2009 e Systems player, impacted by shortfall in demand (-15% in 2009 e ) are less likely to innovate

19 3 Operators response: content related services namely through partnerships facilitated by the crisis Operators to invest in content and related services and defend and leverage their key assets High Develop Reinforce terms of venue ortance in otential rev Impo p Services (Innovation / Ease of use) Content (Catalogue depth and freshness) Customer relation Network Control of the set-top box Low Monitor Leverage Low Relative performance High

20 3 Operators response: content related services namely through partnerships facilitated by the crisis Partnerships - a potential solution for telecom operators to improve on content and related services as proven by examples of other players Video improvement Expert levers partner Examples Simplicity / offer innovation Internet & Systems players Partnership with Hardware manufacturer with a gaming console manufacturer with TV screen manufacturers (Samsung/Apple/Sony/Panasonic) + + «Offer an intense and innovative «Propose new generation TV entertainment experience» sets connected to the Internet» Catalogue depth and freshness Cable / Satellite / Producers Partnership with producers or TV channels «Propose the richest VoD offer in the USA» «Reach million music and movie fans with video content» Ease of use Software Acquisition of Software companies DishTV (3rd Pay-TV operator in the US) & Sling Media (Software) + «Enhance the service and program consumption software solution»

21 3 Operators response: content related services namely through partnerships facilitated by the crisis Content related services are multiplying on set-top boxes, mostly at the initiative of niche players coming from the systems world Innovative services developed on boxes by systems players The DVR that skips or adapts advertising Your TV anywhere, on PC or on TV thanks to slingbox Set-top box launched in 1999 in the US, allowing to record and view content downloaded from the internet Hard disk storage Pause, rewind live TV (up to 30min) & commercial skip Recordings transfer to/from a home computer & access third-party applications As of November 2008, it is possible to buy a pizza via the video access, an example of adapted local advertising TV streaming device : To remotely view their home's cable, satellite, or personal video recorder (PVR) programming From an Internet-enabled computer from anywhere in the world In Oct 2008, Sling Media launched the SlingCatcher: Hardware device similar to a set top box Enable users to watch their television remotely, without the need for a computer

22 3 Operators response: content related services namely through partnerships facilitated by the crisis Today, US operators are slightly more advanced than their European counterparts Innovative services included in telcos and cable-operators in the USA & UK HD features Available 1000 programs at one Sky+HD 8% of clients launched in 2006, offers 31 HD channels Set-top box Storage 150 Go 250 Go Allows a 40h TV storage Catch-up VOD > titles titles of which 400 HD VoD sky Anytime offered to Sky+ in March in 2007 Interactive advertising EPG Advanced user interface Advanced User friendly Internet navigation Yellow pages, widgets Youtube, web navigation DVR Sky+ 50% of clients in Entertainment Simultaneous recording (x4) Games, chat 2008 vs. 35% in 2007 Multi-room 19% of clients Best in class

23 Presentation in a nutshell Triple play: a success story in a gloomy telecom media ecosystem Operators fixed revenues are threatened by: Mobile broadband substitution Competition from alternative players (cable or satellite TV / ISP) Triple play offers have helped incumbent to: Reduce fixed lines loss pace Maintain ARPU Lower competitive pressure Content: promising niches but content alone is insufficient and challenged New media usage behavior offers the new opportunity for telcos to capture a share of the additional audience and the value created The «light premium» content t strategy t seems best for telcos Differentiating, ARPU generating but demanding a low investment only Telecom operators priority: preserve their triple-play customer base by responding to threats from internet and cable companies 4Bn revenue opportunity in content and related services for European incumbents by 2015: 65% stemming from Pay-TV, 35% from VoD and advertising Operators response: content related services namely through partnerships p facilitated by the crisis The economic crisis is an opportunity for telcos Operators to invest in content and related services and to defend and leverage their key assets such as the network and the control of the box Partnerships as a potential way for telecom to improve in services and along key success factors: ease of use, offer innovation and depth and freshness of catalogue Content-related services are multiplying on set-top boxes, US operators more advanced than European ones