September 17, 1:00 PM. Dean Sorensen, Founder, IBP Collaborative

Transcription

1 BUSINESS FORECASTING AND INNOVATION FORUM 2015 September 17-18, 2015 Boston, MA September 17, 1:00 PM Track A Session: Transforming FP&A via Strategic, Financial & Operational Integration Improve forecast accuracy, scenario planning, rolling forecasts, budget cycle time and cross functional optimization, while also reducing costs Dean Sorensen, Founder, IBP Collaborative Dean Sorensen is the founder of the IBP Collaborative: a firm that advises organizations about processes and technologies that enable step change improvements to how they plan, manage and govern their business. Dean has a unique mix of strategic, financial and operational experience across dozens of manufacturing companies in Consumer Products, Food and Packaged Goods, Automotive, Aerospace, Industrial Products, Chemicals, Steel and High Tech sectors. Dean has been working in the area of Integrated Planning and Performance Management (IPPM) over a decade. This includes a number of years working with two IPPM software companies, where he designed highly advanced solutions based on technology that has yielded billions in value for organizations. Dean is a recognized thought leader that speaks and writes about the need for, and value of, greater integration between strategic, financial, sales and operational management processes. Particularly about their role in driving sustainable cost reduction, consistent strategy execution and operational excellence. He has held senior level positions with KPMG, Accenture and AT Kearney. He received a Bachelor of Business Administration from York University in Toronto and a Chartered Accountant designation in Canada. He is also certified in Production and Inventory Management from APICS. View presentation online at:

2 Transforming FP&A Through Strategic, Financial & Operational Integration JPK Business Forecasting Summit Boston, September 17 & 18, 2015 Helping organizations leverage Innovative Business Practices that enable step change improvements to how they plan, manage and govern their business

3 About Us Integrated Planning Innovative Business Practices Intelligent Performance Management

4 About Us Budgeting & Forecasting Reporting & Dashboards Strategy Management (Balanced Scorecard) Consolidation & Close Processes Supported Project & Portfolio Management Sales & Operations Planning Profitability Management (Activity-Based Costing) Supply Chain Finance

5 Focus For Today Budgeting & Forecasting Reporting & Dashboards Strategy Management (Balanced Scorecard) Consolidation & Close Integrated Models Integrated Measures Integrated Processes Horizontal Processes Project & Portfolio Management Sales & Operations Planning Profitability Management (Activity-Based Costing) Supply Chain Finance

6 Focus For Today Operationally Realistic Rolling Forecasts Forecast Accuracy Superior Processes Lower Costs Scenario Planning Shorter Budget Cycle Time

7 Focus For Today Operationally Realistic Rolling Forecasts Margin Management Financial & Operational Integration Forecast Accuracy Superior Processes Lower Costs Scenario Planning Effective Decision Support Cross Functional Alignment Shorter Budget Cycle Time

8 Agenda 1. Introduction & Agenda 5 2. Case Study Integrated Planning: Direct Integrated Planning: Enterprise Integrated Process Value Technology Options 5 7. Getting Started 5 8. Summary & Questions 5

10 Case Overview Company Situation Publisher of school books Significant deterioration in performance High inventories, stock outs and back orders Followed long budget process Project Objective Fix the problem Evaluate ERP investment

11 Case Overview What was achieved Process improvements to recover control Cost of $25 million (lost revenue, obsolescence) Key Conclusions Ineffective planning processes Supply chain understaffed by 1/3 Significant problems in future without ERP How did we get there?

12 Complexity & Types of Books Item A B C D Total Mix 60% 30% 9% 1% 100% Number 3,000 1, ,000 Reviews Per year Hours Per Review Greater Complexity & Lower Volume Total Hours 3,000 15,000 20,250 10,000 48,250 FTE

13 Service Levels Item A B C D Total Mix 60% 30% 9% 1% 100% Number 3,000 1, ,000 Reviews Per year Hours Per Review Total Hours 3,000 15,000 20,250 10,000 48,250 FTE

14 Productivity Levels Item A B C D Total Mix 60% 30% 9% 1% 100% Number 3,000 1, ,000 Reviews Per year Hours Per Review Total Hours 3,000 15,000 20,250 10,000 48,250 FTE

15 Resource Requirements Item A B C D Total Mix 60% 30% 9% 1% 100% Number 3,000 1, ,000 Reviews Per year Hours Per Review Total Hours 3,000 15,000 20,250 10,000 48,250 FTE

16 Historic Staffing Levels Item A B C D Total Mix 60% 30% 9% 1% 100% Number 3,000 1, ,000 Reviews Per year Hours Per Review Total Hours 3,000 15,000 20,250 10,000 48,250 FTE Sufficient people available to manage products given complexity mix Cost Per Product = 230

17 Historic Staffing Levels Item A B C D Total Mix 60% 30% 9% 1% 100% Number 3,000 1, ,000 Reviews Per year Hours Per Review Total Hours 3,000 15,000 20,250 10,000 48,250 FTE Average staffing levels that drive budget process

18 Current Staffing: Required Item A B C D Total Mix 50% 35% 10% 5% 100% Number 2,500 1, ,000 Reviews Per year Hours Per Review Total Hours 2,500 17,500 22,500 50,000 92,500 FTE More people required due to shift towards more complex products

19 Current Staffing: Actual Item A B C D Total Mix 50% 35% 10% 5% 100% Number 2,500 1, ,000 Reviews Per year Hours Per Review Total Hours 2,500 8,750 15,000 20,000 46,250 FTE Staffing levels maintained by reducing # of reviews per year

20 Future Staffing Requirements Item A B C D Total Mix 45% 35% 12% 8% 100% Number 4,500 3,500 1, ,000 Reviews Per year Hours Per Review Total Hours 4,500 35,000 54, , ,500 FTE Short staffed by 100 people to meet service objectives

21 Staffing Summary Activity Actual Staff Requied Staff Delta Staff Actual Budget Required Budget Delta Budget Cost Per Unit Unit Of Measure Manage Inventory ,150 2,300 1, Product Manage Vendors ,000 Vendor Process Purchase Orders PO Expedite Orders Ex PO New Products ,000 Product Supervise Person Total ,400 4,100 1,700 2,390 Matrixed View Of The Department

22 Key Improvements Reduce departmental budget cycle time to 2 days Integrate budgeting, balanced scorecard, activity-based costing, project & portfolio management, sales & operations planning Changed the dialogue between finance and operations Connect volume, mix & KPI targets with budgets Explicit dialogue cost and service tradeoffs Focus on productivity and mix vs. fixed budget How many people do we need?

23 The Flaw Of Averages Averages often used for driver-based planning Support corporate finance but not business finance Not always good for decision making Can be difficult to maintain

24 FP&A Roles Understand business economics Manage tradeoffs expectations Improvement Opportunities Prevent business issues Manage change

26 Driver-Based Planning Simple Unit x Rate Partially Integrated

27 Integrated Process: Direct Integrate Rolling Forecast With Sales & Operations Planning Update Revenue & Demand Initiate The Process Update Department Forecasts Preliminary Plan Scenarios Update & Deploy Plan Consolidate & Disclose (SEC) Update Supply & Unit Costs

28 Integrated Process: Direct Update Revenue & Demand Collaborative demand planning and forecasting Traditional bottom up budgeting & forecasting Initiate The Process Update Department Forecasts Preliminary Plan Scenarios Update & Deploy Plan Consolidate & Disclose (SEC) Update Supply & Unit Costs 5. Integrated RF and S&OP 4. Automated Variance Analysis 3. Mass Changes to models 2. Financial & Operational MRP explosion 1. Models: Versions, Time Based, Distributed Ownership

29 Integrated Planning Models Routings Bill Of Materials MRP & Inventory Parameters Capacity Management Detailed Or Aggregate Planning Models Unit of Measure & Conversion Rates Vendor Allocation & Purchase Prices Standard costing Lead Times

30 Integrated Planning Models Routings Bill Of Materials MRP & Inventory Parameters Capacity Management Multiple Versions Mass Changes Time Phased Cross Entity Unit of Measure & Conversion Rates Vendor Allocation & Purchase Prices Standard costing Lead Times

31 Integrated Planning Models Routings Bill Of Materials MRP & Inventory Parameters Capacity Management Double Entry Planning Unit of Measure & Conversion Rates Vendor Allocation & Purchase Prices Standard costing Lead Times

32 Integrated Planning Models Routings Bill Of Materials MRP & Inventory Parameters Capacity Management Distributed Ownership Unit of Measure & Conversion Rates Vendor Allocation & Purchase Prices Standard costing Lead Times

33 Distributed Model Ownership

34 Variance Analysis Variance Components Budget Old Forecast Scenario X Month A Demand Volume & Mix Selling Price Purchase Price Labor Rates Labor Productivity Staffing Levels & Mix Foreign Exchange Cash Flow Actual New Forecast Scenario Y Month B

35 Variance Analysis Variance Components Budget Old Forecast Scenario X Month A Integrated Reconciliation Budget and S&OP Integration Executive S&OP Process Scenario Planning Actual New Forecast Scenario Y Month B

36 Integrated Process: Direct How Budgeting Processes Change Update Revenue & Demand Initiate The Process Update Department Forecasts Preliminary Plan Scenarios Update & Deploy Plan Standard Costs Update Supply & Unit Costs

37 Rolling Forecast Objectives Accuracy & Balance Completeness Supply & Demand Reduce Planning Costs Executable & Risks Plan Forecast Accuracy - Profit Insightful & Cash Scenarios Flow Single Plan Of Record - Optimize Automated Results Reconcilation In smaller and less complex organizations, Rolling Forecast objectives are often met Effective Scenario Plan Planning Ownership Fast Planning & Forecasting Processes Less Work

38 Rolling Forecast Objectives Accuracy & Balance Completeness Supply & Demand 5 Key Capability Gaps 4 Reduce Planning Costs Executable & Risks Plan 3 2 Forecast Accuracy - Profit Insightful & Cash Scenarios Flow 1 0 Single Plan Of Record - Optimize Automated Results Reconcilation Effective Scenario Plan Planning Ownership Fast Planning & Forecasting Processes Less Work

39 Questions Are Being Raised Do Rolling Forecasts Work? Is IBP A Hoax?

40 Planning Maturity Simple Unit x Rate Partially Integrated

42 Driver-Based Planning Simple Unit x Rate Fully Integrated

43 Strategic CPM Budgeting & Forecasting Reporting & Dashboards Strategy Management (Balanced Scorecard) Consolidation & Close Integrated Models Integrated Measures Integrated Processes Horizontal Processes Project & Portfolio Management Sales & Operations Planning Profitability Management (Activity-Based Costing) Supply Chain Finance

44 Integrated Process: Direct Update Revenue & Demand Initiate The Process Update Department Forecasts Preliminary Plan Scenarios Update & Deploy Plan Consolidate & Disclose (SEC) Update Supply & Unit Costs 5. Integrated RF and S&OP 4. Automated Variance Analysis 3. Mass Changes to models 2. Financial & Operational MRP explosion 1. Models: Versions, Time Based, Distributed Ownership

45 Integrated Process: Enterprise Direct Cash Flow Forecast Update Revenue & Demand KPI Targets Initiate The Process Update Department Forecasts Preliminary Plan Scenarios Process Forecast Update & Deploy Plan Consolidate & Disclose (SEC) Driver-Based Forecast Update Supply & Unit Costs Project Forecast & Update

46 Integrated Process: Enterprise Direct Cash Flow Forecast Concurrent Processes Distributed Model Ownership Update Revenue & Demand KPI Targets Initiate The Process Update Department Forecasts Preliminary Plan Scenarios Process Forecast Update & Deploy Plan Consolidate & Disclose (SEC) Driver-Based Forecast Update Supply & Unit Costs Project Forecast & Update

47 Integrated Process: Enterprise Direct Cash Flow Forecast Cash flow parameters (A/R, A/P, other accounts) Double entry planning logic Update Revenue & Demand KPI Targets Assumptions that drive work Service levels, quality, productivity, rate, mix Initiate The Process Update Department Forecasts Preliminary Plan Scenarios Process Forecast Update & Deploy Plan Consolidate & Disclose (SEC) Driver-Based Forecast Conversion factors used to derive activity volume Financial and operational resource requirements Update Supply & Unit Costs Project Forecast & Update Project spending forecast Project proposition changes

48 Cross Functional Coordination Direct Cash Flow Forecast Update Revenue & Demand KPI Targets Initiate The Process Update Department Forecasts Preliminary Plan Scenarios Process Forecast Update & Deploy Plan Consolidate & Disclose (SEC) Driver-Based Forecast Update Supply & Unit Costs Project Forecast & Update Process owner evaluates Impact of change on key metrics

49 Integrated Measures & Models 1 Functions and Processes 2 Financial and Non Financial Me Processes A B C D E F G H I Perfect Order Fulfillment Days In Receivables Cost Mix Per Order Functions Time

50 Integrated Measures & Models 3 Finance & Operations 2 Financial and Non Financial Me Over Capacity Perfect Order Fulfillment Days In Receivables Available Capacity Cost Mix Per Order Time Time

51 Integrated Measures & Models 4 Strategy, Finance & Operations 2 Financial and Non Financial Me Perfect Order Fulfillment Days In Receivables Cost Mix Per Order Time

52 Integrated Measures & Models Balanced Scorecard (Service & Productivity) Perfect Order Fulfillment Days In Receivables Cost Mix Per Order Time

53 Integrated Measures & Models What This Information Achieves 2 Financial and Non Financial Me Productivity vs. fixed budgets Focus people on tradeoffs Shared rewards across functions Perfect Order Fulfillment Days In Receivables Cost Mix Per Order Time

54 Integrated Processes Balanced Scorecard (Performance Measurement) Business Process Management Knowledge Management Planning, Budgeting & Forecasting Profitability Management (Activity-Based Costing) SOX Compliance Change Management Project & Portfolio Management

55 Integrated Processes Balanced Scorecard (Performance Measurement) Business Process Management Knowledge Management Planning, Budgeting & Forecasting Issues Workflows Commentary Collaboration Security Profitability Management (Activity-Based Costing) SOX Compliance Change Management Project & Portfolio Management

56 Horizontal Processes Planning & Performance Management Processes That Cut Across Functions and Legal Entities Accountability & Decision Rights Issues Workflows Commentary Collaboration Security

57 Strategic CPM Budgeting & Forecasting Reporting & Dashboards Strategy Management (Balanced Scorecard) Consolidation & Close Integrated Models Integrated Measures Integrated Processes Horizontal Processes Project & Portfolio Management Sales & Operations Planning Profitability Management (Activity-Based Costing) Supply Chain Finance

59 Finance Transformation Just 27% of transformation projects deliver the desired qualitative and quantitative benefits and sustain the majority of cost savings for two years post-implementation

60 Cost Reduction Sustainability Most organizations don t sustain cost reductions for > 3 years 1 Conclusion: Source: Approach: 90% of companies studied failed to sustain cost reductions for more than 3 years Managing Overhead Costs, McKinsey Quarterly, 2005 Sustainability of cost reduction programs at 230 S&P 500 companies that publicized them, 1999 to Conclusion: Source: Approach: 70% of companies studied failed to sustain cost reductions for more than 3 years Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2007 Analysis of 115 FTSE 350 Companies Between 2001 and Conclusion: Source: Approach: 90% of companies studied failed to sustain cost reductions for more than 3 years Dynamic Market-Paced Resource Allocation, Corporate Executive Board, 2008 Study of 485 companies between 1994 and 2004

61 Research Studies Complexity Complexity costs 3% to 5% of sales (AT Kearney) Cost Reduction 90% fail to sustain results > 3 years (Conference Board) Operational Excellence 58% realized minimal financial impact (Accenture) Finance Transformation 27% Deliver Forecasted & Sustained Benefits (Corporate Executive Board) Strategy Execution Organizations realize only 63% of strategy value (McKinsey) Decision-Support 50% of Investment Decisions are Wrong (McKinsey) Change Management 25% gains sustained over time (Towers Watson)

62 Research Studies Complexity Complexity costs 3% to 5% of sales (AT Kearney) Cost Reduction 90% fail to sustain results > 3 years (Conference Board) Operational Excellence 58% realized minimal financial impact (Accenture) Plan, Manage & Govern Outcomes Strategy Execution Organizations realize only 63% of strategy value (McKinsey) Decision-Support 50% of Investment Decisions are Wrong (McKinsey) Change Management 25% gains sustained over time (Towers Watson)

63 Strategy Profitable Growth & Sustainable Cost Reduction Effective Employee Engagement Operational Excellence Plan, Manage & Govern Outcomes Customer Intimacy Agility & Flexibility Consistent Strategy Execution

64 Unwritten Rules Always under promise and over deliver Never submit your real budget the first time Always inflate your budget, because it will likely be cut Plan, Manage & Govern Outcomes Avoid specific measures, especially if you don t control them Always make your budget because it s what matters Protect your budget because you may not get it back

65 Coordination Capabilities Key Statistics More than 80% of companies have at least one formal system for managing commitments across silos But only 20% of managers believe that these systems work well all or most of the time. March 2015

67 Value & Capability Gaps Value & Capability Gaps 100% of Objectives & Value Global Variability Large Scale Frequent Change Interdependence Organization Complexity

68 Source Of Capability Gaps Tactical Data Strategic Business Supply Chain Finance Sales & Operational Planning Project & Portfolio Management Value & Capability Gaps Activity-Based Costing Balanced Scorecard Planning & Forecasting Dashboards & Analytics Consolidation & Close Budgeting & Reporting 100% of Potential Value

69 Traditional Market Views Challengers Leaders Ability To Execute Niche Players Visionaries Completeness Of Vision

70 Traditional Market Views Challengers Leaders CPM = Corporate Performance Management Ability To Execute S&OP = Sales & Operations Planning P&PM = Project & Portfolio Management Niche Players Visionaries Completeness Of Vision

71 Alternative Market View IPPM = Integrated Planning & Performance Management Cost & Performance Measurement Maturity CPM IPPM S&OP Planning Model Maturity

72 Total Cost Of Ownership Non Integrated Generic Approach Integrated Approach Total Cost Of Ownership Non Value Added Activities (eg. Manual & Unnecessary Tasks) Redundant Software Capabilities (eg. Dashboards, Measurement) Operational Processes & Technology (eg. Sales & Operations Planning) Financial Processes & Technology (eg. Corporate Performance Management)

73 Total Cost Of Ownership Total Cost Of Ownership Manual Tasks Financial & operational reconciliation Spreadsheet to support planning Scenario planning & what if Variance analysis Plan validation Unnecessary Tasks Multiple planning iterations Duplicate model management Duplicate Fin. & Ops. processes Separate Cash Flow Forecasting Non Value Added Activities (eg. Manual & Unnecessary Tasks) Redundant Software Capabilities (eg. Dashboards, Measurement) Operational Processes & Technology (eg. Sales & Operations Planning) Financial Processes & Technology (eg. Corporate Performance Management)

74 Summary No Technology Look beyond basic features Look at the TCO Existing Technology Replace could be the lowest TCO Strategic CPM Plug In could also be used

76 Short and Long Term Actions Determine if integrated processes & technologies are relevant to your organization Short Term Develop a plan to assess your current situation and to determine a path forward Long Term

77 Planning Process Set The Direction Define The Current State Define The Future State Define The Value Design The Solution Acquire The Technology Plan The Change Develop The Plan

78 Short Term Action Primary Objective Assess the relevance of integrated processes and technologies to finance and broader business strategy Secondary Objectives Educate key stakeholders about leading practices & technology advances Determine the need for and value of more integrated processes Workshop Logistics Key stakeholders and change agents 1 to 2 days Key Outputs List of critical requirements Preliminary gap definition Path forward definition

79 Process Comparison Feature Traditional Integrated Planning Process Sequential Concurrent Scenario Planning Disjointed End To End Model Ownership Concentrated Distributed Key Assumptions Spreadsheets Model Parameters F&O Reconciliation Manual Automated Planning Focus Functions & Inputs Processes & Outcomes

81 FP&A Issues Operationally Realistic Rolling Forecasts Margin Management Financial & Operational Integration Forecast Accuracy Integrated Models Integrated Measures Integrated Processes Horizontal Processes Scenario Planning Effective Decision Support Cross Functional Alignment Shorter Budget Cycle Time

82 FP&A Opportunity More effective and Efficient FP&A function

83 FP&A Opportunity Collapse budgeting processes to < 1 month Reduce planning & performance management costs by 50% Cost reduction inventory & self adjusting cost structures Reduce risk by managing complexity

84 FP&A Opportunity Cost Of Complexity 3% to 5% of Sales

85 FP&A Opportunity Understand applicability to your Organization

86 Contact Information