Analysis of the development trend of China s business administration based on time series

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1 SHS Web of Conference 4, (06) DOI: 0.05/ hconf/ C Owned by he auhor, ublihed by EDP Science, 06 Analyi of he develomen rend of China buine adminiraion baed on ime erie Rui Jiang Buine School, Norhwe Normal Univeriy, Lanzhou, Ganu, China ABSTRACT: On he general direcion of he economic yem, China i in a crucial eriod of he eablihmen of he modern enerrie yem and reform of he macroeconomic yem, and a lo of high-qualiy buine adminiraion alen are required o mae China economy be ably develoed. Thi aer carrie ou ime erie analyi of he develomen iuaion of China buine adminiraion major: on he whole, he ociey currenly reen an uward rend on he demand for he buine adminiraion alen. Wih he gradually increaing demand for he buine adminiraion alen, variou college and univeriie alo e u he buine adminiraion major o rain a large number of adminiraion alen, hu leading o an uward rend for he academic focu on buine adminiraion. Keyword: ime erie analyi; buine adminiraion; develomen rend INTRODUCTION A reen, he buine adminiraion major i cloely relaed o he develomen of ocial economy and form a cuing-edge alicaion-oriened diciline. In recen year, wih gradual acceleraion of he rogre in he global economic inegraion, here i a more and more obviou difference beween he uly and demand of he buine adminiraion alen. Wih more and more frequen economic relaion wih he rade beween variou counrie, China economic develomen gradually end o be inernaionalized. Therefore, in he nex eriod, China require a lo of buine adminiraion alen [-3]. On he general direcion of he economic yem, China i in a crucial eriod of he eablihmen of he modern enerrie yem and reform of he macroeconomic yem, and a lo of high-qualiy buine adminiraion alen are required o maing China economy be ably develoed. Since 990, ome reearcher have begun o reearch he viualizaion alicaion ofware and relaed imlemenaion algorihm in he nowledge field in he eaching roce of he buine adminiraion, creaively realizing an objecive relaion beween he viualizaion echnology of he buine adminiraion and cienific merology. In 004, ome reearcher develoed a ecialized cienific field and carried ou claified alicaion analyi oward he lieraure ile, auhor, inroducion, ey word and oic on he indurial managemen direcion by he ue of CieSace ofware, hu hi mehod gradually become a univerally alicable law in he cienific merology [4]. In he Human Reource Guide, Dave Ulrich rooe ha he human reource hall overcome everal challenge: creae an abiliy-oriened value chain which i inegraed wih globalizaion, comeiivene and human reource; reduce co and raidly increae rofi; boa wide change; arac and reerve comeen alen; conduc imrovemen and ranformaion [5]. In he cenury, he human reource of he buine adminiraion goe hrough he imac of he global inegraion and informaion newor, nowledge and innovaion, cuomer ower, benefi of inveor, organizaion eed and abiliy, force of change and variou ind of force. The facor from all aec gradually change and erfec he heoreical yem of he buine adminiraion major [6]. On he whole, he ociey currenly reen an uward rend on he demand for he buine adminiraion alen. Meanwhile, in he nex eriod, many Chinee enerrie are difficul o find he comeen buine adminiraion alen. Wih he gradually increaing demand for he buine adminiraion Thi i an Oen Acce aricle diribued under he erm of he Creaive Common Aribuion Licene 4.0, which ermi diribuion, and reroducion in any medium, rovided he original wor i roerly cied. Aricle available a h:// or h://dx.doi.org/0.05/hconf/

2 SHS Web of Conference Table. Conra beween he new and old buine adminiraion major 0 Buine adminiraion 0 Buine adminiraion (ar) 00 Buine Adminiraion 07S Buine Planning Managemen 00K Buine Adminiraion 03S Franchie Managemen 007W Merchandiing 04S Chain Buine adminiraion 037S Food Economy Managemen 00 Mareing 00 Mareing 003K Accouning 003 Accouning 004 Financial Managemen 004 Financial Managemen 005 Inernaional Buine 0W Inernaional Buine 006 Human Reource Managemen 005 Human Reource Managemen 07 Audiing 008W Audiing 008 Ae Evaluaion 055 Ae Evaluaion 009 Proery Managemen 0S Proery Managemen 00 Culural Indury Managemen 030S Culural Indury Managemen alen, variou college and univeriie alo e u he buine adminiraion major o rain a large number of adminiraion alen, hu meeing he need of mare develomen. In hi regard, he buine adminiraion major among college and univeriie i alo reformed. The conra beween he new and old buine adminiraion major i hown in Table [7, 8]. Since he 980, enlarged recruimen i being romoed in China higher educaion, hu he mode of higher educaion gradually i convered from he meriocracy o he ublic, he number of college uden i increaed year by year, and ome college which are lac of eacher and aroriae hardware faciliie even fell behind he ace of he era. From hi, i no difficul o ee ha he culivaion of he buine adminiraion alen under he higher educaion fail o be effecively guaraneed. Under hi overall iuaion, aroriae adjumen and innovaion mu be made for raining he undergraduae alen in he buine adminiraion, hu imroving he raining qualiy of he buine adminiraion alen in order o mee he need of ocial develomen [9-]. MODELING For he ime erie analyi, hi aer li he change of even in accordance wih he ime equence, hu coniuing an analyzable ime erie. We carry ou effecive inveigaion and reearch on he ime erie in order o idenify i correonding change and develomen rule and redic ha i fuure rend i he correonding ime erie analyi.. Inroducion o ime erie analyi [-3] For he ime erie analyi, here i a need o fir underand he following model: () AR () model x 0 x x... x 0 E( ) 0Var( ) ) 0, Ex 0, The model wih he above rucure i called a -order auoregreive model. Here, i i recorded a AR (). () MA (q) model x u... q q q 0 E( ) 0, Var( ) ) 0, The model wih he above rucure i called a q-order auoregreive model. Here, i i recorded a MA (q). (3) ARMA (, q) model x 0 x x... x 0, q 0 E( ) 0Var( ) ) 0, Ex 0,... The model wih he ime erie analyi of above rucure i called a -order auoregreive model or q-order auoregreive model. Here, i i recorded a ARMA (, q)... Saionary equence modeling () Modeling e The following roce i lied according o he number of aer which i regarded a iniial daa and relaed o he buine adminiraion in he economic core journal from 000 o 04: he correlaion coefficien calculaion amle, he model i no, number of eimae, model e, model oimizing and erie foreca, a hown in Figure. q q

3 SSHE 05 Teing objec: reidual equence Judging rincile: A good fiing model hould be able o exrac he relevan informaion of he amle in he oberved value equence, ha i, he reidual equence hould be daa o be dicued. On he conrary, i deend on he iuaion. Null hyohei: he number of volleyball aer in he or core journal: H0... m 0, m Alernaive hyohei: The correonding reidual equence i he daa o be dicued: Figure. Saionary equence modeling roce () Calculaion of correlaion coefficien of he amle Samle auocorrelaion coefficien i hown a follow: ˆ n ( x x)( x n ( x x) x) Parial auocorrelaion coefficien (amle) i hown a follow: ˆ Dˆ Dˆ (3) Model recogniion Baic rincile i hown a follow: ˆ ˆ Selecion model Tailing P-order ailing AR() Q-order ailing Tailing MA(q) Tailing Tailing ARMA(, q) (4) Aroximae diribuion of he amle correlaion coefficien Barle: ˆ ~ N(0, ), n n Quenouille: ˆ ~ N(0, ), n n (5) Parameer eimaion The arameer o be eimaed are q unnown arameer. The commonly ued eimaion mehod are: momen eimaion, maximum lielihood eimaion and ignificance eing of ix model. Objecive: Te he validaion of he model (wheher he exracion of informaion i adequae) HA lea, here exi ρ0, m, m Te aiic: LB aiic LB n n ˆ m m ( ) ( )~ ( ) n Significance eing of he arameer: Objecive: Te wheher each unnown arameer value i nonzero. Delee hoe inignifican arameer: H T : 0 H : 0 0 j Te aiic: ˆ j j n m ~ ~ ( n m) a Q( ) jj Model oimizaion Problem oing: Here, we aume ha he model ae he correonding e, indicaing ha if he daa i wihin a cerain feaible range, hi model can effecively obain he correonding reul. Oimizaion uroe: Chooe a relaively oimal model. Serie foreca Linear redicion funcion i hown a follow: x i0 C x i i Predic he minimum variance rincile i hown a follow: Var xˆ ( l ) [ e ( l)] min{ Var[ e ( l)]} I i a facor of he furher model analyi... Nonaionary equence modeling We need o fir conduc aionary oeraion for he daa and hen eablih ARIMA (, q) model o olve hi roce. Nex, we will inroduce hi model. The uage occaion of he model rucure i he j

4 SHS Web of Conference aionary erie fiing of he difference: Model rucure i hown a follow: d ( B) x ( B) E( ) 0, Var( ) ) 0, Ex 0, Modeling e: (oberved equence value obained, aionary e, difference oeraion, variable e, fiing ARMA model, analyi reul), a hown in Figure : Figure 3. Claificaion of he roorion of college uden view A can be een from he above analyi, for he raining of he buine adminiraion alen, he enior manager accoun for 56% of he oal conemorary college uden, while he junior manager and middle manager reecively accoun for 9% and 5%. According o eyword in he relevan aer relaed o he buine adminiraion lied in Table 3, he reul are hown in he following able afer conducing aiic abou he relaed eyword from CNKI: Table 3. Number of eyword Figure. Nonaionary equence modeling flowchar. Model alicaion and correonding daa roceing For he culivaion of China buine adminiraion alen, he managemen level include junior manager, middle manager and enior manager; he oiioning of he alen nowledge and abiliy include he heory-oriened enior alen, racice-oriened alied alen and heoreical reearcher; he emloymen oiioning in he buine adminiraion major include he enerrie, governmen economic managemen dearmen and he eaching & reearch iniuion. For he above claificaion, he conemorary college uden alo have correonding raining oiioning. The college uden believe ha he buine adminiraion eronnel are diribued a Table. For he above daa, we analyze he iem of he managemen level, and blac-whie ie diagram i hown in Figure 3: Year Number Year Number Baed on he above daa, blac and whie bar char i hown in Figure 4: Figure 4. Variaion rend of he number of eyword Table. Buine adminiraion alen raining (uden view) Managemen-level Poiioning of he alen nowledge and abiliy Emloyer oiioning Senior manager (56%) Theory-oriened enior alen (4.%) Enerrie (.%) Middle manager (5%) Pracice-oriened alied alen (66.7%) Governmen economic managemen dearmen (4.%) Junior manager (9%) Theoreical reearcher (9.6%) Teaching & reearch iniuion (6.%) Above uni (48.5%)

5 SSHE 05 The number of eyword can baically reflec he main idea of an aricle, he heme dicued, he mehod ued and imoran concluion obained. Therefore, raional analyi on he eyword in he buine adminiraion ha imoran ignificance. A can be een from he analyi on he variaion rend of he eyword in he aer relaed o he buine adminiraion, he number of aer relaed o he buine adminiraion reen an uward rend in recen year. The decomoiion of he correonding ime erie daa how a in line of he endency, a green line of he eaonal cycle, and a blue line of ochaic, a hown in Figure 5: mee he need of ocial develomen. Therefore, he ocial focu on buine adminiraion reen an uward rend, and i reul are hown in Figure 6: Noe: indicae ha he value of he idenificaion oin i higher han ha of wo oin in fron and bac, and i growh rae i more han 30%, comared wih he reviou value Figure 6. Academic focu on he buine adminiraion Figure 5. Decomoiion of he ime erie daa conra figure In order o more accuraely gra he develomen rend of he buine adminiraion major, he uer in CNKI carry ou aiical analyi of he focu on buine adminiraion. From 997 o 04, he reul of he aiical analyi on he number of uer focu are hown in Table 4: Table 4. Number of uer focu Year Number Year Number Source: CNKI academic rend The mode of higher educaion i gradually convered from he meriocracy o he ublic, he number of college uden i increaed year by year, and ome college which are lac of eacher and aroriae hardware faciliie fall behind he ace of he ime, o he qualiy of he buine adminiraion alen rained under he higher educaion fail o be effecively guaraneed. Under hi overall iuaion, aroriae adjumen and innovaion mu be made for he raining of he undergraduae alen in he buine adminiraion, hu imroving he raining qualiy of he buine adminiraion alen in order o 3 CONCLUSION Wih more and more frequen economic relaion wih he rade beween variou counrie, China economic develomen gradually end o be inernaionalized. Therefore, in he nex eriod, China require a lo of buine adminiraion alen. On he general direcion of he economic yem, China i in a crucial eriod of he eablihmen of he modern enerrie yem and reform of he macroeconomic yem, and a lo of high-qualiy buine adminiraion alen are required o mae China economy be a able develomen. On he whole, he ociey currenly reen an uward rend on he demand for he buine adminiraion alen. Meanwhile, in he nex eriod, many Chinee enerrie are difficul o find he relevan comeen buine adminiraion alen. Wih he gradual increae of he demand for he buine adminiraion alen, variou college and univeriie alo e u he buine adminiraion major o culivae a large number of adminiraion alen, hu meeing he need of mare develomen. REFERENCES [] Qiao Chuanfu & Qin Changcai Reearch on China develomen direcion of Buine Adminiraion Major - Baed on he erecive of curriculum roviion. Conume Guide, 0: [] Amel Kouaib & Ani Jarboui. 04. Exernal audi qualiy and ownerhi rucure: ineracion and imac on earning managemen of indurial and commercial Tuniian ecor. Journal of Economic, Finance and Adminiraive Science. [3] M.M. Eia. 0. Demand ide managemen rogram evaluaion baed on indurial and commercial field daa. Energy Policy,

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