Trends in the Fixed and Mobile Industry

Transcription

1 Trends in the Fixed and Mobile Industry

2 2 Contents Analysys profile Global Overview Key issues in the mobile industry Key issues in the fixed industry

3 3 Analysys provides expert advice on telecoms markets across the world Analysys office Analysys associate Countries where Analysys has worked

4 4 Contents Analysys profile Global Overview Key issues in the mobile industry Key issues in the fixed industry

5 5 Service revenues are increasing Global Market Revenue 2,500 2,000 US $ billion 1,500 1,000 Services Equipment Source: Gartner Dataquest 2002

6 6 particularly in fixed and mobile Global Market Revenues by Sector 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Public Fixed Services Mobile Infrastructure Enterprise Systems and Applications US $ billions Source: Gartner Dataquest 2002

7 7 while capital expenditures recover slowly 350, ,000 Capex (USD million) 250, , , ,000 50, Wireline Wireless cellular Broadcasting Satellite Wireless PAN/LAN Fixed wireless RFID

8 8 but overall the sector still underperforms.

9 9 Contents Analysys profile Global Overview Key issues in the mobile industry Key issues in the fixed industry

10 Mobile key issues 10 Two key trends dominate the mobile market today Introduction Market saturation/ top line growth Technology

11 Mobile key issues 11 Saturation The mobile market is near saturation in most developed countries Mobile subscribers penetration 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Singapore Hong Kong Australia Malaysia Taiwan Japan UK USA Source: Global Mobile Communications, EIU, Analysys, 2003

12 Mobile key Issues 12 Saturation Rapid penetration growth in the 1990s was accompanied by steep tariff decline Monthly mobile expenditure ! Significant decreases in many countries for subscription and calling rates! Penetration achieved at the expense of dilution move from business to mass market recent growth almost entirely in low-value subscribers Singapore Taiwan, China Japan Malaysia United Kingdom Hongkong Source: Analysys, 2000

13 Mobile key issues 13 Saturation Operators are responding to market saturation with three measures to improve average revenue per user (ARPU)! Modified sales and marketing Profitability! Stabilize pricing! Reducing Churn reduction Market saturation/ Top-line growth Focus on ARPU New Services! Data as much as 20% for some operators! Blackberry (mainly US)! Tariff initiatives Fixed Subst.! Difficult to achieve given pricing/profit objectives! Some network quality issues

14 Mobile key issues 14 Technology Technology focus is shifting from infrastructure to applications 3G(FDD) implementation! Many operators are content to delay while technology matures! Current generation of terminals not regarded as viable by many operators! Significant opportunities in improving FDD performance Technology Shift in focus Applications! ARPU growth is perceived as being driven by application technologies! Considerable operator attention on platforms and middleware! but a very crowded space WLAN! Seen by many operators as necessary, but not compelling! Complement and not replacement to mobile

15 15 Contents Analysys profile Global Overview Key issues in the mobile industry Key issues in the fixed industry

16 Key fixed trends 16 Key trends dominating the fixed market today Introduction! Competition in long distance/international services! Natural barriers to local competition! Possible competitive impact of convergence

17 Key fixed trends 17 International Competitive pressures increase in long distance/international service markets over time 100% Competitor IDD market share 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Japan 2001 (150 comp.) Hong Kong 2001 (235 comp.) Singapore 2003 (194 comp.) UK 2001 (500 comp.) Australia 2001 (75 comp.) Sweden 2001 (120 comp.) South Korea 2001 (60 comp.) US 2001 (1800 comp.) 10% 0% Years since liberalisation Source: Telegeography, IDA Size of marker indicates number of competitors

18 Key fixed trends 18 Local access Competition in the last mile has been difficult to achieve in many countries Market share in the United States by operator type 100% 90% Market share by revenue 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Other CLECs Other ILECs Bell Operating Companies 0% Source: FCC

19 Key fixed trends 19 Convergence Convergence is beginning to dis-integrate the telephony value chain Circuit-switched telephony Broadband telephony Content Services Voice over Broadband Provider Applications Services Incumbent Operator Network Services DSL Provider Network Facilities

20 Key fixed trends 20 As broadband penetration increases Convergence 30% 25% % of population 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% F 2004F Singapore Hong Kong Australia Malaysia South Korea Japan UK USA Source: Analysys, ITU and company information, 2003

21 Key fixed trends 21 Convergence voice will begin to shift to VoIP and increase competitive pressures Revenues ($ billion) Units (billion) Figure 3. IP Telephony Services Market: Traffic and Revenue Forecasts Source: CMPnetAsia Technology Network

22 22 Michael Kende Principal Consultant Analysys Consulting Limited 1776 I Street, NW Washington, DC