Revisiting Rotational Trading and a peek at ETF Screen. AAII Pittsburgh Chapter July 11, 2012

Transcription

1 Revisiting Rotational Trading and a peek at ETF Screen AAII Pittsburgh Chapter July 11, 2012

2 Some Rotational Pluses Rather simple approach Usually not many variables The hope of less whipsawing

3 We will examine running against a general set of ETFs and against the IBD Fifty Top Stocks recently published Certainly the exercise of ETFs in the IVY Portfolio has brought greater interest in ETFs as a reasonable portfolio investment vehicle. o The application of general index ETFs has taken the heat out of more volatile ETFs. o o Trading less often has its appeal. Very low interest rates in savings accounts has returned some hope to investing in equities. As various testing and reviews point out possible areas of further study, we have the hope of improving our results.

4 Issues and Resolutions Rotational Trading success depends upon... What the market will provide Selection of robust investment vehicles Robust ranking of current performance Protection against retreating performance Monitoring and disciplined execution Software to facilitate operations Key factors Ranking, ranking, ranking

5 Timeline

6 Building the Approach Software - AmiBroker ETFs Connors Twenty Stocks IBD Fifty Ranking Linear Regression Slope Stops Minimum rank value to continue to hold, Stop Loss, Trailing Stop Max Positions ETFs(1), Stocks(3) Optimizations Minimum rank position, regression window, minimum regression slope, maximum stop loss, maximum trailing loss.

7 Details ETF run Symbols DIA EEM EFA EWH EWJ EWT EWZ FXI GLD ILF IWM IYR QQQ SPY XHB XLB XLE XLF XLI XLV Minimum Position Held - 8th Regression window = 20 market days Minimum regression slope = 45% Stop Loss - 6% Trailing Stop 11% Fitting Period January 1, 2011 to July 10, 2012

8 Connors Twenty Rotational Run - Result Winning Trades 4 out of 6 Annualized Back-Fitted Return % Maximum Portfolio Draw-Down - 6.6% Average Position Hold Period Ulcer Index 3.4% Ulcer Performance Index 3% Sharpe Ratio market days

9 Connors ETFs Equity Plot (Back fitted)

10 Connors ETFs Equity Plot (Back fitted)

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12 Rotational Trading against a set of stocks IBD Top Fifty

13 Details IBD Top Fifty Symbols AAPL AGU ALGN ALXN AMT BWLD CERN CF CRUS CSTR CTXS DVA HMSY HIS JBHT LOPE LQDT MA NSR NTES PCLN PRGO QCOR ROST SLXP SWI SXCI TCBI TDC TDG TJX ULTA UNF VAL WPI WWWW WXS Minimum Position Held - 11th Regression window = 20 market days Minimum regression slope = 28% Stop Loss - 4% Trailing Stop 8% Fitting Period January 1, 2011 to July 10, 2012

14 IBD Top Fifty (3 positions max) Rotational Run Winning Trades 36 out of 57 Annualized Back-Fitted Return % Maximum Portfolio Draw-Down - 9.2% Average Position Hold Period Ulcer Index 2.8% Ulcer Performance Index 12.7% Sharpe Ratio market days

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19 Comments and Observations.... ETFs have less volatility than stocks generally in this presentation we held a maximum of 3 stocks in one example and 1 ETF in the other. Ranking is critical an example rotational system against a set of African mining stocks used the EMAs from 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 120, , 180, 200 and Squared the differences between them, put them into two sets, multiplied the resultants by ATR(100)*0.01, used whichever set was stronger, subtracted 12,000. If the resulting value was less than 0, 0 was used for ranking. The 8 year backrest produced an average annual gain of 27% with a maximum 16% portfolio drawdown, holding a max of 10 stocks. Average position hold was 51 market days.

20 presents a (currently) free website that one may exercise some ETF strategies... One may customize the set of ETFs to be considered You may test various screen criteria You may define your own variables (3 max) You may rank candidates You may try 1,2,3,4,5,10 position portfolios You may refresh your buy candidates at different periods You may review the hypothetical results for different starting days You may see the hypothetical trades made compared to a benchmark by refresh period as well as over five years

21 Two Outstanding Published Examples CDGR Muni Mk 2... Low Volume Bouncer... Annual return 23% Ulcer Index 1.7% Exposure 95% 1 Position Refresh every week Annual return 114% Ulcer Index 6.4% Exposure 100% 3 Positions Refresh every week

22 CDGR Muni Mk 2

23 Low Volume Bouncer, Three Positions