Land Values/Trends. Purpose of land talks. Factors impacting agricultural land values. Factors/issues impacting land values

Transcription

1 Land Values/Trends and Buying Land Purpose of land talks Develop an understanding of the underlying economic principles and management aspects of land ownership and leasing Trying to reduce decisions to numbers Kevin C. Dhuyvetter Department Agricultural Economics Kansas State University Two decision tools: KSU Landbuy.xls KSU Lease.xls Related papers are found at Factors/issues impacting land values Farm profitability Farm size Government programs Input costs (e.g., fuel and fertilizer) Interest rates Outside investors (i.e., stock market money) Recreation uses (e.g., hunting) Ethanol and bio diesel / global demand for grain Section 131 tax exchanges Technology (e.g., no till, precision ag, bio tech, DNA) Urban sprawl Weather (i.e., drought, flood) 3 Factors impacting agricultural land values Ag factors Ag portion of land value has been diminishing (long term) Reduced ability to cash flow traditional land loans with value of agricultural production Non ag factors Urbanization, recreational use of land, etc. more related to the condition of overall economy While agricultural land may continue to be a good investment, producers need to decide if they want to tie up equity in land versus other assets Increasingly difficult to analyze/evaluate land purchases/prices 4

2 Land is Unique Most fixed of farming assets Residual claimant Capitalizes government subsidies Often is taxed Favorably or unfavorably Historical land values and growth Has non ag benefits that may be pecuniary Has non pecuniary benefits A long term investment involving long term expectations history is a guide 5 6 Cheyenne Cheyenne: 27 land value = $616 Wheat/fallow -- Cow/calf Rawlins Decatur Norton Phillips Smith Jewell Republic Washington Atchison: 27 land value = $1366 Corn/soybeans Brown Marshall Nemaha Doniphan 1,5 Land value, selected Kansas counties, Ag Census, land and buildings Sherman Thomas Sheridan Graham Wallace Logan Gove Trego Greeley Wichita Scott Lane Ness Finney Hodgeman Hamilton Kearny Gray Ford Stanton Grant Haskell Meade Clark Morton Stevens Seward Rooks Osborne Ellis Russell Rush Barton Pawnee Stafford Edwards Pratt Kiowa Barber Comanche Atchison Cloud Jackson Pottawatomie Mitchell Clay Riley Jefferson Leavenworth Ottawa Wyandotte Lincoln Shawnee Geary Wabaunsee Douglas Johnson Dickinson Saline Morris Ellsworth Osage Franklin Miami Lyo Mcpherson n Rice Marion Chase Coffey Anderson Linn Reno Harvey Greenwood Woodson Allen Bourbon Butler Sedgwick Kingman Wilson Neosho Crawford Elk Sumner Cowley Chautauqua Harper MontgomeryLabette Cherokee Sumner 27 land value = $938 $/acre 1,25 1, Cheyenne Sumner Atchison CN AT SU Wheat 7 8

3 $/acre 2,5 2,25 2, 1,75 1,5 1,25 1, Average farm real estate value, Ag Census, land and buildings Kansas Oklahoma Missouri Nebraska MO KS NE OK land value ($/acre) 1,5 1, KS land value (incl. bldgs); average annual growth = 3.95% land value growth rate 3% 2% 1% -1% -2% % annual growth rate (%) 9 1 land value ($/acre) KS land value (incl. bldgs); average growth = 3.95%; geometric growth = 3.73% 1,5 land value 1, geometric growth growth rate geometric growth % 2% 1% % -1% -2% annual growth rate (%) Crop Land Average Value per Acre January 1, 211 Change from 21 National average = +9.4% KS = +13.%; NE = +17.9% OK = +2.6%; MO = +5.9% Source: USDA NASS Land Values 211 Summary and Dhuyvetter (KSU) 1879 starting land value for Kansas was $ * Corresponding changes in pasture land values were US=+1.9%; KS=+2.5%; NE=+9.5%; OK=+2.%; and MO=+2.4%.

4 Crop Land Average Annual Growth Rate Jan 1, 26 to Jan 1, 211, percent (geo mean) Crop Land Average Annual Growth Rate Jan 1, 21 to Jan 1, 26, percent (geo mean) 13 National average = +5.7% National average = +8.8% Source: USDA NASS Land Values 211 Summary and Dhuyvetter (KSU) Source: USDA NASS Land Values 211 Summary and Dhuyvetter (KSU) Pasture Land Average Value per Acre January 1, 211 Pasture Land Average Value Annual Growth Rate Jan 1, 26 to Jan 1, 211, percent (geo mean) Change from 21 National average = +1.9% KS = +2.5%; NE = +9.5% OK = +2.%; MO = +2.4% Source: USDA NASS Land Values 211 Summary and Dhuyvetter (KSU) National average = +2.8% Source: USDA NASS Land Values 211 Summary and Dhuyvetter (KSU) * Corresponding changes in crop land values were US= +9.4%; KS=+13.%; NE=+17.9%; OK=+2.6%; and MO=+5.9%.

5 Pasture Land Average Value Annual Growth Rate Jan 1, 21 to Jan 1, 26, percent (geo mean) Crop land values at regional level as reported by KAS Kansas Non irrigated Crop Land 1,3 1,2 NW NC Avg 1,1 1, 9 MF 11 $/acre National average = +11.5% Source: USDA NASS Land Values 211 Summary and Dhuyvetter (KSU) Source: Kansas Agricultural Statistics and K State (211 values estimated by K-State) 18 Pasture land values at regional level as reported by KAS Percent change in crop land values from two sources* $/acre Kansas Pasture Land NW NC Avg MF 11 Percent Kansas Non Irrigated Crop Value Year to Year Change KAS (avg=4.81%) KC Fed (avg=6.65%) Source: Kansas Agricultural Statistics and K State (211 values estimated by K-State) Source: Kansas Agricultural Statistics, Kansas City Federal Reserve, and K State 19 Kansas City-Tenth Federal Reserve District includes CO, KS, NE, OK, WY, 1/2 of NM and 1/3 of MO 2

6 Percent change in pasture land values from two sources* KAS values versus imputed values from KC Fed % changes Percent Kansas Pasture Land Value Year to Year Change 24 KAS (avg=5.54%) 22 KC Fed (avg=6.81%) $/acre 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Non irrigated Crop Land NW/NC Kansas KAS NW/NC Avg 21 Equal 1992 Equal Source: Kansas Agricultural Statistics, Kansas City Federal Reserve, and K State Source: Kansas Agricultural Statistics, Kansas City Federal Reserve, and K State Kansas City-Tenth Federal Reserve District includes CO, KS, NE, OK, WY, 1/2 of NM and 1/3 of MO KAS values versus imputed values from KC Fed % changes Pasture Land NW/NC Kansas KAS NW/NC Avg 21 Equal 1992 Equal Land growth rates vs. inflation $/acre Source: Kansas Agricultural Statistics, Kansas City Federal Reserve, and K State 23 24

7 KS land value and inflation index (correlation =.96) avg growth: land = 4.%; infl = 2.3%; real land = 1.7% avg growth: land = 5.1%; infl = 3.4%; real land = 1.7% 1,5 1 AL land value and inflation index (correlation =.98) avg growth: land = 5.1%; infl = 2.3%; real land = 2.8% avg growth: land = 6.5%; infl = 3.4%; real land = 3.% 2,5 1 land value ($/acre) 1, land value inflation index inflation index (21=1) land value ($/acre) 2, 1,5 1, 5 land value inflation index inflation index (21=1) ,4 Kansas land values by class, Inflation = 3.59% 84 2,25 Kansas land values & projections, projections start with 211 non-irr value ($/acre) 1,2 1, Non-Irr land value Non-Irr growth = 4.61% Pasture land value Pasture growth = 5.16% pasture value ($/acre) $/acre 2, 1,75 1,5 1,25 1, Actual Growth = 3.% Growth = 5.% value 5% 3%

8 Returns to land Capital gains (growth) Returns to land Cash returns (rent) The two returns to land are similar to other investments such as the stock market (capital gains and dividends) 29 3 Rent KFMA farms with > 1 crop acres (28 21 avg) 88% of KFMA farms use rented crop land (range across six regions, 81% 93%) 61% of crop acres farmed by KFMA members are rented (range across six regions, 52% 71%) For owner operators rent is the profit assigned to land after all other opportunity costs are considered rent ($/acre) $5 $45 $4 $35 $3 $25 $2 $15 KS non-irrigated crop land rent; : avg growth = 3.%; geo growth = 2.81% : avg growth = 1.58%; geo growth = 1.71% rent $ geo growth growth rate 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% $1 KSU suggested growth = 2.64% -5% $5-1% % % annual growth rate (%) 31 If grain demand continues, expectation for growth might need to be raised 32

9 Kansas Nonirrigated Cash Rents, 211* Non irrigated Cash Rent 211 change from 21, $/ac * Cash rent values as reported by USDA NASS and Kansas Agricultural Statistics (KAS). KAS did not report values for BR, DP, GT, KE, RA, TH and WY counties values for these counties were filled in with multi county averages. State average = $44. compared to $43.5 in 21 (+1.1%) Of 95 counties with data in both 21 and 211, 35 (36.8%) decreased, 54 (56.8%) increased, and 6 did not change. Average change = $.43 (ranged from $5.5 to +$7.) $18 $16 KS pasture land land rent; : avg growth = 2.86%; geo growth = 2.63% : avg growth = 1.7%; geo growth = 1.53% geo growth 36% 3% Kansas Pasture Cash Rents, 211* rent ($/acre) $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 rent $ growth rate 24% 18% 12% 6% % annual growth rate (%) $4 KSU suggested growth = 2.57% -6% $2-12% If grain demand continues, expectation for growth might need to be raised 35 * Cash rent values as reported by USDA NASS and Kansas Agricultural Statistics (KAS). KAS did not report values for ED, GT, HS, KW, LV, ST, SV and WY counties values for these counties were filled in with multi county averages. State average = $16. compared to $15.5 in 21 (+2.4%)

10 Pasture Cash Rent 211 change from 21, $/ac Kansas (Jan 1) non-irr land value & cash rent, Correlation = 94% 1,4 48 Of 95 counties with data in both 21 and 211, 27 (28.4%) decreased, 51 (53.7%) increased, and 17 did not change. Average change = $.59 (ranged from $4. to +$7.) land value ($/acre) 1,2 1, rent value Land value Cash rent cash rent ($/acre) 38 Value Capitalization Formula Cap rate rtv Annual land income Capitalization rate Annual land income Value land value ($/acre) Kansas (Jan 1) non-irr land value & rent-to-val, Correlation = -92% 1,4 8 1,2 rent-to-value 7 1, value Land value 4 2 rent-to-value rent-to-value (%)

11 Rent to value varies by land type percent Rent-to-value (Jan 1) percent, Kansas, non-irr Non-irr = 5.46% Irr = 7.7% Pasture = 3.37% irr pasture Why are Rents Lower on Pasture than on Farmland? People just love cows and pasture Security more important in cattle production Imperfect markets/sticky prices share rents would adjust to technology faster share rents would keep cash rents in line little share renting in pasture landlord management small (tenant power) Less desirable pastures are rented size, shape, location, grass quality, water, fences Non ag influence (greater on pasture than crop) Buying and owning land ideas Land as an Investment Total return = rent + capital gain Land doesn t cash flow when purchased i.e, rents don t cover a 1% loan Cash flow is not the same as profitability Rents grow, loan payments don t land eventually cash flows Income tax and capital gains tax rates matter Long term investment means time value of money matters 43 44

12 Buying Land How much can I afford? Valuing the capital gains portion Pick a selling point, say 3 years from now What will the land be worth then? Assume some annual capital gain % ag and non ag What is left after sell & pay cap gains tax? What is that amount worth today? Valuing the rent portion What is cash rent today, ag and non ag? How will rents evolve (grow) over time? What is the future stream of rents worth today? Maximum bid = today s value of the capital gain + today s value of the rent stream Non ag Considerations There could be a non ag rent: e.g., leasing your land to hunters There could be a non ag land value growth: e.g., expectations of future development KSU Landbuy.xls allows for both But first some historical information percent 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% 39-state average total returns, by year, % High farming profit in 28 didn t make it to rents or end of year land values 47 percent 39-state average rent-to-value ratios, by year, % 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% %

13 percent Returns to non-irrigated cropland by state avg: non-ag growth= 1.7%; ag growth= 4.3%; rent= 5.1%; total= 11.2% 15.% stock = 11.8% (8.5% gain, 3.3% div) 13.5% 12.% 1.5% 9.% 7.5% 6.% after-prop-tax rent land = 11.2% Sidebar Land returns vs. farm returns Kansas Farm Management Associations 2,+ farms per year Less farms if require multi year presence Calculated an after tax ROE (ATROE) Converted ATROE to pre tax according to: PTROE = ATROE/(1.35) 4.5% 3.% 1.5%.% non-ag growth ag growth Kansas farm returns are compared to Kansas land returns and to the S&P UT NM TX PA AZ OK MI OH CA NV NY LA KS SC IL WV NC FL VA IA OR IN WA CO WI AR KY NE MT ID TN MN AL MO SD ND MS GA WY 39 states ranked by total returns to land 49 5 Sidebar annual returns S&P fund 15.2% avg and 16.7% std Land portfolio 1.1% avg and 1.7% std Portfolio of average farms (138 farms) 8.3% avg and 1.5% std Portfolio of top third farms (46 farms) 13.9% avg and 14.8% std Analyzing a Land Purchase Portfolios of farms, or land, or stock have lower risk than individual farms, parcels, or stocks 51 52

14 Land purchases often made with gut feel Often get caught up in: the emotion of bidding local or national price bubbles the fallacy of comp sales over (or under) valuing certain attributes (e.g., distance) tired of missing opportunities of the past tired of looking must buy something now Consistent procedures can help every potential purchase viewed as an investment with an expected cash and growth return unemotionally separates good from bad buys We routinely observe individual sales ranging from 75% to 175% of market, especially today Were such purchases actually rational economically? What the heck IS the market? KSU Landbuy.xls spreadsheet for land investment decisions Blue values are user inputs all other values are calculated For more information and decision tools related to farm management, marketing, and risk management go to 55 Kevin Dhuyvetter If interested in receiving weekly AgManager.info Update or any of our other Ag Econ newsletters via , please let me know.