Fund Manager Quarterly Review

Transcription

1 Fund Manager Quarterly Review Sentinel Defensive Fund Reporting period: Q For professional adviser use only and not for distribution to retail clients

2 Performance to 31 March m 6m 1yr Since 13 May 2008 Volatility* Sentinel Defensive Fund 0.69% 2.12% 4.07% 20.41% 1.30% 3 Month GBP LIBOR + 1% 0.37% 0.76% 1.53% 14.35% 0.00% FTSE Government All Stocks 2.15% 0.76% -2.56% 39.41% 4.72% FTSE % 3.77% 6.66% 32.40% 11.50% Source: FE Analytics. Data to 31 March Taken on a bid to bid, total return, UK sterling basis. Data taken on 16 April *Annualised ratios taken from monthly returns from 31 March 2013 to 31 March The fund launched on 13 May Past performance is not a guide to future returns. 2

3 Discrete Performance Discrete Quarterly Performance 31-Mar Dec Sept June Mar-13 Sentinel Defensive Fund +0.69% +1.42% +1.60% +0.30% +1.92% Benchmark (LIBOR +1%) +0.37% +0.38% +0.39% +0.38% +0.36% Discrete Annual Calendar Performance 31-Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec May-08 to 31-Dec-08 Sentinel Defensive Fund +5.34% % +6.72% % % Benchmark (LIBOR +1%) +1.52% +1.84% +1.87% +1.70% +2.22% +4.08% Source: FE Analytics. Taken on a bid to bid, total return, UK sterling basis. Data taken on 16 April Past performance is not a guide to future returns. 3

4 Performance Since Launch Since 23 November 2009 (Change of Manager) FTSE % FTSE Government All Stocks +22.4% Sentinel Defensive +21.9% LIBOR GBP 3m +1% +7.7% Source: FE Analytics. Data from 13 May 2008 to 31 March Taken on a bid to bid, total return, UK sterling basis. Data taken on 16 April Since change of management performance, data taken from 23 November 2009 to 31 March Past performance is not a guide to future returns. 4

5 Transactions Settlement Date B/S Full Name Amount Price Currency Consideration Notes 02/04/2014 B EDINBURGH DRAGON TRUST 3.50% CULS , GBP 30, GRY 2.73% premium 38%, Ords at 11% discount Downside <10% with sig. upside potential 31/03/2014 S DEXION TRADING LTD 95, GBP 130, Voluntary Put Option 31/03/2014 B UTILICO INVESTMENTS-ZDP , GBP 65, GRY 4.42% cover 1.81x Potential beneficiary of UTLB maturity 31/03/2014 B BNP PARIBAS ARBITRAGE 500, GBP 500, Y BNP Synthetic Zero Accrual 5.23% Daily Accrual Rate (4.98% GRY) 60% - 120% Range 26/03/2014 S BRUNNER INVESTMENT TRUST PLC 2, GBP 13, c.12.5% discount, sig. tightening this month 26/03/2014 S BRUNNER INVESTMENT TRUST PLC 26, GBP 139, c.12.5% discount, sig. tightening this month 25/03/2014 S MORGAN STANLEY 950, GBP 1,121, Full call at 118.1% 25/03/2014 B EDINBURGH DRAGON TRUST 3.50% CULS GBP 10, GRY 2.73%, Premium 38%, Ords at 11% discount Downside <10% with sig. upside potential 25/03/2014 S BRUNNER INVESTMENT TRUST PLC 11, GBP 58, c.12.5% discount, sig. tightening this month 24/03/2014 S HERALD INVESTMENT TRUST PLC 6, GBP 42, c-15% discount, c+21% Share Price Total Return 24/03/2014 B EDINBURGH DRAGON TRUST 3.50% CULS GBP 5, GRY 2.73% premium 38%, Ords at 11% discount Downside <10% with sig. upside potential 24/03/2014 B SCHRODER ORIENTAL INCOME 100, GBP 166, c-4.30% Discount Buyback control at around -5% discount 21/03/2014 C SHORT GILT FUTURE Mar GBP 10,343, Rolling Short Gilt Future 21/03/2014 H LONG GILT FUTURE Jun GBP 2,732, Rolling Long Gilt Future 21/03/2014 H SHORT GILT FUTURE Jun GBP 10,362, Rolling Short Gilt Future 21/03/2014 C LONG GILT FUTURE Mar GBP 2,755, Rolling Long Gilt Future 21/03/2014 S HERALD INVESTMENT TRUST PLC 40, GBP 281, c-15% discount c+21% share price total return 21/03/2014 B DECEMBER 14 PUTS ON HSI 1 1, HKD 85, Hedge for SOI LN 21/03/2014 B DECEMBER 14 PUTS ON AS AUD 2, Hedge for SOI LN 21/03/2014 B EDINBURGH DRAGON TRUST 3.50% CULS , GBP 10, GRY 2.73% premium 38%, Ords at 11% discount Downside <10% with sig. upside potential 21/03/2014 B EDINBURGH DRAGON TRUST 3.50% CULS , GBP 25, GRY 2.73% premium 38%, Ords at 11% discount Downside <10% with sig. upside potential 21/03/2014 B EDINBURGH DRAGON TRUST 3.50% CULS , GBP 5, GRY 2.73% premium 38%, Ords at 11% discount Downside <10% with sig. upside potential 18/03/2014 S PICTON ZDP , GBP 117, Realising Profit 18/03/2014 B BNP PARIBAS ARBITRAGE 200, GBP 202, Synthetic Zero on MSCI EM 18/03/2014 B GOLDMAN SACHS & CO WERT 200, GBP 204, GRY 4.08% 1.58X % hurdle 5

6 Transactions Continued Settlement Date B/S Full Name Amount Price Currency Consideration Notes 18/03/2014 B SOCIETE GENERALE 200, GBP 204, GRY 5.18% 1.72 x % hurdle 17/03/2014 B MURRAY INCOME TRUST PLC 29, GBP 219, Recent widening of discount from premium c-3.89% 14/03/2014 B MURRAY INCOME TRUST PLC 11, GBP 83, Recent widening of discount from premium c-3.89% 13/03/2014 B DECEMBER 14 PUTS ON UKX GBP 17, Hedge MUT LN for SQF01 11/03/2014 S JUPITER PRIMADONA GROWTH 50, GBP 152, Zero discount policy - sold at -0.64% 06/03/2014 S JUPITER PRIMADONA GROWTH 50, GBP 150, Introduced Zero Discount Control Mandate 03/03/2014 S F&C FINANCE PLC 113, GBP 129, Realising sig. profit following BMO announcement. YTM 3.31% +250bp 28/02/2014 S BURFORD CAPITAL LTD 55, GBP 64, Raising cash-sufficient exposure through COPP 27/02/2014 S BURFORD CAPITAL LTD 34, GBP 40, Raising cash-sufficient exposure through COPP 26/02/2014 B BNP PARIBAS ARBITRAGE 500, GBP 500, Y BNP Paribas FTSE 100 Tracker 90% Participation Rate 55% Soft Protection 25/02/2014 S BURFORD CAPITAL LTD 10, GBP 11, Raising cash-sufficient exposure through COPP 19/02/2014 S BURFORD CAPITAL LTD 69, GBP 80, Raising cash-sufficient exposure through COPP 19/02/2014 B SOCIETE GENERALE 3YR FTSE/S&P 5.8% AUTOCALL 850, GBP 850, /02/2014 S UBS AG 1,000, GBP 1,281, GRY 2.7% cover 2.05x, 2.6yrs left Raising cash, selling on yield compression 18/02/2014 B GOLDMAN SACHS & CO WERT 600, GBP 600, /02/2014 S UTILICO INVESTMENTS-ZDP , GBP 492, Realising Gains Goldman Sachs FTSE/Eurostoxx Synthetic 2016 Capital Entitlement + F/I, Annual Lock-In Observation 65% Soft Protection, 5.15% GRY 17/02/2014 B BNP PARIBAS ARBITRAGE 600, GBP 600, Y BNP Paribas MXEF 5.8% Syntheti Zero 60% Soft Protection Annual Lock-In Observations 17/02/2014 B CREDIT SUISSE LONDON 500, GBP 502, YTC 8.32% YTM 6.32% -39% headroom 1.7% upside required to next call 13/02/2014 S TRITAX BIG BOX REIT PLC 250, GBP 263, Realising Profit 11/02/2014 S EDINBURGH DRAGON TRUST 3.50% CULS , GBP 264, Mark Barnet announced as manager, Discount now tightened 11/02/2014 S ALLIANCE TRUST PLC 125, GBP 543, Tightened to -10.5% discount Better opportunities in SPs given Vol 07/02/2014 S SEPTEMBER 14 PUTS ON SPX USD 9, Selling ATST hedge 07/02/2014 S JUNE 14 PUTS ON UKX GBP 6, Selling EDIN hedge 07/02/2014 S SEPTEMBER 14 PUTS ON UKX GBP 23, Selling ATST hedge 07/02/2014 S DECEMBER 14 Puts on UKX GBP 31, Selling EDIN hedge 6

7 Transactions Continued Settlement Date B/S Full Name Amount Price Currency Consideration Notes 07/02/2014 S EDINBURGH DRAGON TRUST 3.50% CULS , GBP 264, Mark Barnett Confirmed as manager 2.39% gain, NAV Fallen Equity Rise - C.-1.36% Discount 30/01/2014 B UBS AG 300, GBP 302, YTC 7.7%, 2% upside required YTM 7.2% -39% headroom 28/01/2014 S KEYSTONE INVESTMENT TRUST 3, , GBP 52, Discount Tightened In 27/01/2014 B SEPTEMBER 14 PUTS ON UKX GBP 30, Hedge 24/01/2014 B DECEMBER 14 PUTS ON UKX GBP 44, Buying longer hedge at cheap cost 24/01/2014 S MARCH 14 PUTS ON UKX GBP 7, Selling March PUT options and buying UKX 12 P7000- low Volatility 21/01/2014 B JURIDICA INVESTMENTS LTD 40, GBP 52, Dividend Paid m Treasury shares 139.Strong IRR from portfolio 20/01/2014 S BNP PARIBAS 100, GBP 95, Reducing Exposure 16/01/2014 S F&C PRIVATE EQUITY TRUST ZDP , GBP 220, GRY 3.41% 14/01/2014 S CREDIT SUISSE LONDON 700, GBP 838, GRY 2.70%, 2.82yrs till maturity 10/01/2014 B CONYGAR ZDP ,750, GBP 1,750, Placing for new issue 08/01/2014 B DECEMBER 14 PUTS ON SPX USD 25, Hedge for TY US and ZF US 7

8 Zero Dividend Preference Shares The Fund continues to hold a large weighting in Zero Dividend Preference shares (zeros). The Fund prefers to hold zeros that are short dated, senior, with high cover levels and therefore more defensive by nature which should prove less reactive to underlying market movements. While we continue to see new zeros coming to the market, we remain selective on the investments we take inline with our defensive mandate. 8

9 Synthetic Zeros, Defensive Autocalls & Capital Solutions Equity markets were volatile over the quarter, with equity weakness notable towards the end of January and mid-march. Markets continue to remain cautious on a long term global recovery, with a slowdown in the Chinese Economy and concerns in Ukraine and Emerging markets. We view volatility in equity markets as a positive as it provides good opportunities to add to our structured products exposure in products that have a defensive profile while retaining attractive upside potential. Volatile market conditions enable greater switching opportunities between investment types. Over the quarter some of the products we added were a 3yr Societe Generale FTSE/S&P 5.8% autocall and a 3yr BNP Synthetic Zero Accrual 5.23% Daily Accrual. We also took a 4yr synthetic zero issued by BNP Paribas and linked to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, structured during the volatile conditions in late January and benefitting from the subsequent market rally. 9

10 Investment Companies We look to invest in investment companies that have been identified by thorough research and monitoring which enables us to spot attractive entry points on particular investment companies. A number of successful hedged investment company positions where the Fund was exposed to the discount tightening following certain catalysts, examples being; Brunner, Herald, Jupiter Primadona Growth, Edinburgh and Keystone. We continue to look for Investment companies that have value/catalysts and, just as important, hedgeable attributes which allow us to buy the investment and limit downside risk. 10

11 Fixed Income Convertible Unsecured Loan Stocks (CULS) continue to provide a high degree of capital protection, with attractive return profiles. Over the period notable additions were made to our position in Edinburgh Dragon 3.50% CULS The takeover of F&C Asset Management by the Bank of Montreal led to a significant uplift in the Funds only bond holding which was subsequently exited. 11

12 The Two F Exposure FF = Fixed Life and Fixed Entitlement F = Fixed Life or Fixed Entitlement + = Further potential Portfolio Hedge -0.1% (0.1%) Not Fixed 19.8% (22.5%) FF+ 21.4% (19.7%) F 1.0% (0.0%) F+ 0.7% (1.0%) FF 57.2% (57.0%) Data as at 31 March Data in brackets as at 31 December

13 Asset Allocation Cash 0.9% Capital Solutions 1.2% ETF 0.8% Dividend Certificate 1.6% Lookback Trackers 0.7% Options 0.3% Preference Shares 1.6% COPPS 0.3% Structured Accrual 2.0% Closed Ended Hedge Fund 5.4% Investment Companies (Hedged) 6.5% Zeros 38.5% Investment Companies 8.0% Convertible Unsecured Loan Stock 8.4% Defensive Autocalls 11.1% Synthetic Zeros 12.9% Data as at 31 March

14 Underlying Exposure Litigation Finance 1.0% Commodities 1.4% Residential Property 1.8% Cash & Fixed Income 2.5% Asian Equities 2.9% Portfolio Hedge 0.9% French Equities 0.7% Natural Resources 0.4% UK Equities 22.7% Absolute Returns 3.6% Commercial Property 4.5% US Equities 5.1% UK Smaller Companies 6.3% Investment Companies 13.5% Hedge Funds 7.4% Global Utilities 12.2% Private Equity 13.1% Data as at 31 March

15 Risk Statistics Historic volatility chart against FTSE 100 Sentinel Defensive Fund FTSE Year Volatility 3 Year Volatility 1 Year Max Loss 3 Year Max Loss 1 Year Max Drawdown 3 Year Max Drawdown Sentinel Defensive Fund 1.30% 2.68% -0.77% -3.45% -0.77% -4.32% FTSE % 14.99% -8.62% % -8.62% % Volatility table source: FE Analytics. Annualised ratios. Data to 31 March 2014, taken on 15 April Chart source: Bloomberg. Data from 23 November 2009 to 31 March Past performance is not a guide to future returns. 15

16 Outlook and Anticipated Changes The Fund will continue to maintain a large weighting in investments with defensive qualities and built in growth. We will continue to monitor the duration effects on the Fund with the view to protect against rising risk free rates. We seek diversification through investments in a range of underlying sectors, with downside protection, and demand strong credit metrics from issuers. We continue to remain defensively positioned. We will continue to keep a large exposure to the Two Fs to achieve predictability. 16

17 Important Information Risk of investments Past performance is not a guide to the future. The price of shares and income from them may go down as well as up and you may get back less than you invested. Movements in exchange rates may also affect the value of the investment. Please remember that these investments are typically intended as either medium or long term investments. Reference to any particular stock does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell the stock. Disclaimer Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained within this presentation, we regret that we cannot accept responsibility for any omissions or errors. This presentation is directed only at authorised financial advisers and professional investors. The information given and opinions expressed are subject to change and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely on the content of this presentation. A free, English language copy of the Fund s full prospectus, Key Investor Information Document and Supplementary Information Document are available on the Sentinel microsite, or by calling us on For your protection, calls may be monitored and recorded for training and quality assurance purposes. FTSE International Limited ( FTSE ) FTSE [year]. FTSE is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under licence. All rights in the FTSE indices and / or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and / or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE s express written consent. Issued by Premier Fund Managers Limited. Premier Portfolio Managers Ltd and Premier Fund Managers Ltd are ISA managers, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority of 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS and are members of the Premier and Premier Asset Management marketing groups ck 17