American Express Fixed Income Presentation. May 2008 Update

Transcription

1 American Express Fixed Income Presentation May 2008 Update

2 Agenda AXP Overview Performance AXP Capital & Funding Management 2

3 Company Overview American Express is a leading global payments and travel company founded in American Express Company 12/31/07 03/31/08 Revenues Net of Interest Expense: $ 27.7B $7.2B Income from Continuing Ops: $ 4.0B $1.0B Return on Average Equity: 37.3% 35.9% Full Year ended December 31, 2007 U.S. Card Services International Card Services Global Commercial Services Global Network & Merchant Services Corporate & Other % Contribution Revenues*: 51% Income** : 45% % Contribution Revenues*: 16% Income**: 7% % Contribution Revenues*: 15% Income** : 13% % Contribution Revenues*: 14% Income** : 25% % Contribution Revenues*: 4% Income**: 10% Global Consumer Group Global Business-to-Business Group Includes: Travelers Cheques & Prepaid Services Publishing *Revenues Net of Interest Expense. **Income from Continuing Operations. 3

4 AXP Franchise American Express is the world s largest issuer of charge and credit cards as measured by purchase volume. Our focus on the premium market sector enables us to have best in class credit quality. Average spending per card is substantially higher for us versus our competitors. The global diversity of our business includes: 88 million cards in force worldwide, More than 115 card issuing or merchant acquiring arrangements with banks and other institutions, Over 650 American Express network branded products. American Express is a brand recognized around the world for exceptional service and customer care. American Express is ranked #1 as the Most Admired megabank/credit card company according to Fortune magazine s 2008 annual survey. Our spend-centric model is a significant competitive advantage. 4

5 Spend-Centric Model The AXP spend-centric business model focuses primarily on generating revenues by driving spending on our cards, and secondarily finance charges and fees, allowing us to grow market share in the payments industry. Investments in Premium Value Attractive Customer Base Premium Economics High Average Spending 5

6 Customer Focus Advantages Global Consumer Global Business to Business Affluent global base Marketing expertise Acquisition channels Risk capabilities Corporate, merchant and GNS relationships Sales & client management expertise Processing Return on Equity Blue Box Advantages: Brand Premium positioning Rewards platforms Reengineering Servicing Information management 6

7 Agenda AXP Overview Performance AXP Capital & Funding Management 7

8 Performance vs. Targets Target Q1 08 Revenue net of interest expense 2 8% 10% 12% 10% 11% EPS % 19% 20% 16% (7%) ROE Pre-Spin 18-20% 25% 4 ROE Post-Spin 33-36% 5 35% 37% 36% 1. Targets are on average, over time. 2. Please see the revised Statements of Income presentation described in the Company s 3/30/07 8-K filing. 3. Income from continuing operations. EPS growth on a net income basis was 11% in 2005, 1% in 2006, 12% in 2007 and (2%) in Q Reported ROE, which is determined on a trailing 12-month basis using reported net income of $3.7B over average month-end shareholders equity (including discontinued operations) for the twelve months ending 12/31/05 of $14.7B. 5. Revised from 28-30%, effective 11/7/06. 8

9 Metric Trends Q1 08 Billed Business* 16% 16% 15% 14% 15% Cards In Force 9% 10% 11% 10% Avg. Basic Cardmember Spending** 10% 7% 8% 6% Mgd. Cardmember Loans*** 15% 17% 22% 19% Credit Performance *Billed business represents the dollar amount of charges related to proprietary cards, including cash advances and certain insurance fees, and cards issued under network partnership agreements. **Computed from proprietary card activities only. ***Managed basis includes owned and securitized loans. On a GAAP basis, owned loan growth was 23% in 2005, 31% in 2006, 26% in 2007 and 17% in Q

10 Q1 08 Worldwide Key Metric Comparison $166 Total Billed Business ($B) Total Managed Loans ($B) $194 $106 $161 $151 $85 $57 $25 $23 $75 $67 $47 AXP Citi JPMorgan** Bank of America*** Cap One Discover Growth vs. LY 14% 13% 5% 2% 2% 5% Citi Bank of America*** JPMorgan AXP* Cap One Discover Growth vs. LY 14% 11% 3% 19% 3% 2% *On a GAAP basis, owned loans were $50B and increased 17%. **Billed business is charge volume; sales volume growth was 10%. ***US Consumer & Business Card. US Card. Fiscal year ends November 30. US Card. Billed business is net sales volume; transaction volume which includes cash advances was $26B and declined 3%. 10

11 Q1 08 Worldwide Key Metric Comparison Lending Managed Net Write-off Rates Lending Managed Net Interest Margin 5.9% 5.7% 5.7% 11.3% 10.2% 10.0% 4.4% 4.4% 5.3% 4.3% Ex. Interest & Fees 9.0% Ex. Interest & Fees 8.3% 8.1% 8.0% Cap One** Bank of America*** Citi Discover JPMorgan AXP* Citi Cap One** AXP* JPMorgan Discover Bank of America*** *On a GAAP basis, owned net write-off rate and net interest margin were 5.5% and 9.6%, respectively. **US Card. ***Net write-off rate is US Consumer & Business Card and net interest margin is Card Services. Fiscal year ends November 30. US Card. 11

12 Worldwide Lending Managed Net Write-off Rates 3.7% 5.7% 5.3% 5.1% 5.1% 4.3% 4.4% 4.0% 5.3% US Card Services* International Card Services Total AXP* Q1'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 *On a GAAP basis, owned US Card Services net write-off rates were 3.7%, 4.3% and 5.5% and owned Total AXP net write-off rates were 4.1%, 4.5% and 5.5% for Q1 07, Q4 07 and Q1 08, respectively. On an owned basis, US Card Services net write-off rates were 3.0% and 3.9% and Total AXP net write-off rates were 3.7% and 4.2% for 2006 and 2007, respectively. On a managed basis, US Card Services net write-off rates were 2.9% and 3.8% and Total AXP net write-off rates were 3.4% and 4.1% for 2006 and 2007, respectively. There are no off-balance sheet International Card Services securitizations; therefore, the net write-off rates for International Card Services are on an owned basis. 12

13 US Lending Managed Net Write-off Rates versus Competitors Excluding write-offs of accrued interest and fees 3.4% 2.9% 4.3% 3.9% 3.9% 4.4% 4.4% 3.9% 3.6% 4.8% 5.0% 5.7% 4.6% 5.1% 5.8% 3.7% 4.8% 5.9% US Card Services* Discover** JPMorgan*** Bank of America**** Citi Cap One Q1'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 *On a reported, GAAP basis, owned US Card Services net write-off rates were 3.7%, 4.3% and 5.5% for Q1 07, Q4 07 and Q1 08, respectively. On an owned basis, US Card Services net write-off rates were 3.0% and 3.9% for 2006 and 2007, respectively. On a managed basis, US Card Services net write-off rates were 2.9% and 3.8% for 2006 and 2007, respectively. **Fiscal year ends November 30. ***Includes some international volumes. ****US Consumer & Business Card. 13

14 US Lending Managed 30+ Day Past Due Rates versus Competitors 5.5% 5.7% 5.9% 3.2% 2.8% 4.3% 4.0% 3.7% 3.5% 3.7% 3.6% 3.9% 3.1% 3.3% 3.1% US Card Services* JPMorgan** Discover*** Cap One Bank of America**** Q1'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 *On a GAAP basis, owned US Card Services 30+ day past due rates were 2.9%, 3.5% and 4.1% in Q1 07, Q4 07 and Q1 08, respectively. **Includes some international volumes. ***Fiscal year ends November 30. ****US Consumer and Business Card. 14

15 FICO Score Peer Comparison The following peer comparison is based on US Lending & Charge Trust Data*: FICO < 660 ( Sub-prime ) FICO > 720 ( Super-prime ) 65.5% 27.2% 28.7% 29.3% 54.2% 54.0% 24.1% 16.6% 19.7% 43.1% 42.0% 39.4% 34.5% 11.7% AEIT AMXCA JP Morgan Citi Discover Cap One Bank of America AEIT** JP Morgan AMXCA** Cap One Citi Discover Bank of America * Trust data as of March 31, 2008 for AMXCA, Discover, and Bank of America, March 28, 2008 for Cap One, February 29, 2008 for AEIT and JP Morgan, and December 30, 2007 for Citi. ** AEIT and AMXCA FICO > 720 ( Super-prime ) category includes 2/3 s of the A/R within the category. 15

16 Agenda AXP Overview Performance AXP Capital & Funding Management 16

17 Capital Management We continuously monitor our aggregate and subsidiary capital positions to ensure we: Maintain our debt rating Meet all statutory, regulatory and tax requirements Cover our exposures across credit, market and operational risk Support business growth Maintain flexibility in our capital plan and structure American Express has historically generated capital well in excess of its needs. 17

18 Liquidity Management As of March 31, 2008, we have $19 billion of cash and cash equivalents on hand. We estimate that we have access to over $40 billion as part of our contingent liquidity plan that would enable us to meet our daily obligations when access to unsecured funds in the debt capital markets becomes impaired. Sources include, but are not limited to*: Liquidity investment portfolio ($5B) Undrawn committed bank credit facilities ($9B) Sale of consumer, commercial card, and small business loans and cardmember receivables through our existing securitization programs, and sale of other eligible receivables (~$25B) We also have substantial flexibility to manage our cash requirements: Share repurchases Discretionary expenses and investments Substantial intra-company ability to mobilize liquidity where needed Liquidity is managed through the breadth of sources of our funding programs, as well as through the quality and liquidity of our funded assets. *As of March 31,

19 AXP Funding Strategy Category Short-Term Our short-term funding programs are used primarily to meet working capital needs. Unsecured Term Term ABS Our 2008 long-term issuance plan provides for the refinancing of maturities and funding for business growth. Our goal is to achieve this through a broad and globally diversified mix of maturities, markets, and securities, including issuance from both lending and charge receivables trusts. We plan to issue large, liquid benchmark issues and to continue to efficiently leverage a multiissuer strategy. 19

20 American Express Issuance Structure American Express Company (AXP) Total Assets 1,2 : $173B Credit Ratings 3 : A1/A+/A+/A(High) Regulated By: SEC & OTS American Express Issuance Trust (AEIT) American Express Travel Related Services (TRS) Total Assets 1,2 : $147B Credit Ratings 3 : Aa3/A+/A+/A(High) Regulated By: State Money Transmitter Laws American Express Credit Corporation (Credco) Total Assets 1 : $46B Credit Ratings 3 : Aa3/A+/A+/A(High) Regulated By: SEC American Express Centurion Bank (AECB) Total Assets 1,2 : $41B Credit Ratings 3 : Aa3/A+/A+ Regulated By: FDIC & Utah State American Express Federal Savings Bank (AEFSB) Total Assets 1,2 : $32B Credit Ratings 3 : Aa3/A+/A+ Regulated By: OTS American Express Credit Account Master Trust (AMXCA) 1) Total Assets as of December 31, ) Includes off-balance sheet loans of $21.5 billion, $21.5 billion, $14.6 billion and $6.8 billion for AXP, TRS, AECB and AEFSB, respectively. 3) Credit Ratings indicated are from Moody s/s&p/fitch/dbrs. 20

21 AXP & TRS American Express Company (AXP) Credit Ratings*: A1/A+/A+/A(High) Leading global payments and travel company Finances through: Dividends from subsidiaries Unsecured long-term notes American Express Travel Related Services (TRS) Credit Ratings*: Aa3/A+/A+/A(High) Issues charge cards and traveler s cheques Sells charge card receivables to Credco Finances through: Unsecured medium and long-term notes Asset backed securities (ABS) A.E. Issuance Trust *Credit Ratings indicated are from Moody s/s&p/fitch/dbrs. 21

22 Credco American Express Travel Related Services (TRS) American Express Credit Corporation (Credco) 100% owned by TRS Credit Ratings*: Aa3/A+/A+/A(High) Funds charge card products Finances through: Direct issuance of commercial paper (P-1/A-1/F1) Unsecured medium and long-term notes Asset backed securities (ABS) A.E. Issuance Trust Credco and TRS have an agreement whereby Credco purchases receivables from TRS at a discounted rate that will provide earnings of Credco available for fixed charges of at least 1.25 times. Credco - Ratio of Earnings to Fixed Charges Q *Credit Ratings indicated are from Moody s/s&p/fitch/dbrs. 22

23 US Banks American Express Travel Related Services (TRS) American Express American Express Centurion Bank (AECB) Federal Savings Bank (AEFSB) 100% owned by TRS 100% owned by TRS Credit Ratings*: Aa3/A+/A+ Credit Ratings*: Aa3/A+/A+ Incorporated in 1987 Issues and funds revolving products Proprietary Lending Lending on Charge Finances receivables through: Deposits Short-term money market instruments Unsecured medium and long-term notes Asset Backed Securities (ABS) A.E. Credit Account Master Trust *Credit Ratings indicated are from Moody s/s&p/fitch. Incorporated in 2000 Issues and funds revolving products Strategic Co-Brand OPEN (Small Business Services) Finances receivables through: Deposits Short-term money market instruments Unsecured medium and long-term notes Asset Backed Securities (ABS) A.E. Credit Account Master Trust 23

24 Outstanding Funding Composition As of March 31, 2008 $ billions $ $111.2 $ Deposits Commercial Paper Other Short-term Card ABS* Unsecured Term /31/2008 * Card ABS reflects on and off balance sheet funding; on balance sheet ABS funding was $1.2 billion, $3.1 billion and $3.1 billion at 12/31/06, 12/31/07 and 03/31/08, respectively. 24

25 Term Managed Debt Maturity Profile 12/31/07 $19.8 $ $ $ $ $ Card ABS Unsecured * ** Thereafter 03/31/08 $19.9 $ $ $ $ $ Card ABS Unsecured * ** Thereafter Numbers are presented on a GAAP basis except as follows: *2010 Unsecured Term Debt excludes $1.6 billion of on balance sheet Charge ABS debt, which is included in the Card ABS number. **2012 Unsecured Term Debt excludes $1.6 billion of on balance sheet Charge ABS debt, which is included in the Card ABS number. 25

26 2008 Projected Managed Funding Our 2008 funding plan includes approximately $32 to 36 billion of term debt to: Refinance maturing debt Replace a portion of maturing short-term debt with long-term debt Fund business growth Global Term Unsecured & Card ABS Issuance * $ billions Unsecured Card ABS $34.0 $30.1 $ $ Objectives for 2008 issuance: Lengthen our weighted average maturities Expand non-usd funding Expand alternative funding sources 2006** 2007*** 2008 Forecast 2008 to Date (4/30) *Except as further noted below, unsecured term debt is presented on a managed basis. On a GAAP basis, the corresponding amounts are $18.6 billion, $20.9 billion, $27.0 billion and $6.5 billion in 2006, 2007, 2008 Forecast and 2008 YTD Actuals, respectively. **2006 Unsecured Term Debt includes $2.0 billion of remarketed floating rate notes and $6.0 billion of other term debt classified as short-term for GAAP purposes. ***2007 Unsecured Term Debt includes $2.6 billion of other term debt classified as short-term for GAAP purposes and excludes $2.0 billion of on balance sheet Charge ABS Debt, which is included in the Card ABS number Forecast Unsecured Term Debt excludes $0.9 billion of on balance sheet Charge ABS Debt, which is included in the Card ABS number YTD Actuals Unsecured Term Debt excludes $0.9 billion of on balance sheet Charge ABS Debt, which is included in the Card ABS number. 26

27 American Express ABS Trusts American Express Credit Account Master Trust (AMXCA) American Express Issuance Trust (AEIT) Trust Established Vehicle Purpose Eligible Receivables Assets currently in trust Trust Size: - Principal AR* Investor Interest* Seller Interest* Accounting Treatment Minimum Sellers Interest Credit Enhancement 1996 Ongoing Business as Usual funding and contingent funding capacity All US lending receivables Consumer Lending $33.2 billion - $26.0 billion - $7.2 billion Securitized receivables accounted for offbalance sheet Gain-on-Sale at issuance 7% of outstandings 12% (Class B is 5.5% and Class C is 6.5%) 2005 Primary contingent funding capacity All US charge receivables Consumer and small business charge $7.2 billion - $4.1 billion - $3.1 billion Securitized receivables accounted for onbalance sheet as a secured financing No gain on sale at issuance 15% of trust principal 7% (Class B is 3% and Class C is 4%) * As of March 31, 2008; Adjusted for April 2008 issuances and maturities 27

28 AMXCA Performance Trend* 30+ Days Delinquencies & Past Due Rate Ending Balance & Default Rates $1100 MM $1000 MM $900 MM $800 MM $700 MM $600 MM $500 MM 2/07 3/07 4/07 5/07 6/07 7/07 8/07 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 3.4% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% $40 B $35 B $30 B $25 B $20 B 2/07 3/07 4/07 5/07 6/07 7/07 8/07 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 30+ days Delinquent Past Due Rate (Calculated) Principal Balance (ending) Annualized Default Rate, Gross Monthly Payment Rate Yield 28% 20% 26% 24% 15% 22% 20% 2/07 3/07 4/07 5/07 6/07 7/07 8/07 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 10% 2/07 3/07 4/07 5/07 6/07 7/07 8/07 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 * Source: 10D AMXCA Monthly Filings 28

29 AEIT Performance Trend* 30+ Days Delinquencies & Past Due Rate Ending AR & Default Rates $400 MM 4% $10 B 4% $300 MM 3% $8 B 3% $200 MM 2% $6 B 2% $100 MM 1% $4 B 1% $ MM 2/07 3/07 4/07 5/07 6/07 7/07 8/07 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 0% $2 B 2/07 3/07 4/07 5/07 6/07 7/07 8/07 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 0% 30+ Days Delinquent Past Due Rate (Calculated) Ending Receivables Annualized Default Rate, Net Monthly Payment Rate Yield 90% 35% 88% 30% 25% 86% 20% 84% 15% 82% 2/07 3/07 4/07 5/07 6/07 7/07 8/07 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 10% 2/07 3/07 4/07 5/07 6/07 7/07 8/07 9/07 10/07 11/07 12/07 1/08 2/08 3/08 * Source: 10D AEIT Monthly Filings 29

30 Key Takeaways American Express has a: Spend-centric model which offers a substantial competitive advantage Balanced funding strategy in terms of mix, market and maturity Best in class credit quality portfolio Robust liquidity risk management program Brand recognized globally for excellent service and customer care American Express is committed to continued expansion of its debt investor relations program. 30

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32 NOTE RELATING TO NON-GAAP FINANCIAL DISCLOSURES This presentation contains certain non-gaap financial disclosures, including the Company s pro forma return on equity, as well as information that is reported on a "managed" basis. Managed basis assumes no securitization transactions, i.e., all securitized loans and related income effects are reflected as if they were in the Company's balance sheet and income statement, respectively. Information relating to comparable GAAP financial measures may be found on the relevant slides both attached hereto and located on American Express Company's investor relations website at INFORMATION RELATING TO FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation includes forward looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. The words "believe," "expect," "anticipate," "optimistic," "objective," "intend," "plan," "will", "may," "could," "would," "likely" and similar expressions are intended to identify forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they were made. American Express Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward looking statements, include, but are not limited to, disruption of financial markets, market capacity and demand for securities offered by the Company, regulatory changes, ability to sell receivables and the performance of receivables previously sold in securitization transactions. A further discussion of these and other risks and uncertainties can be found in the reports of the Company filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (including its annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2007). 32