3rd Annual MIT Airline Industry Conference
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- Mervyn Elliott
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1 \\NYDFS1\ROOT\LIB\IBD\GCM\PRODUCT TEAMS\GLOBAL STRUCTURED CORPORATES\Equipment Finance Group\Conferences\Other Conferences\MIT\ cap markets overview.ppt\a2xp\19 APR 2004\10:09 AM\1 3rd Annual MIT Airline Airline Financing Challenges: A Capital Markets Overview April 19, 2004
2 \\NYDFS1\ROOT\LIB\IBD\GCM\PRODUCT TEAMS\GLOBAL STRUCTURED CORPORATES\Equipment Finance Group\Conferences\Other Conferences\MIT\ cap markets overview.ppt\a2xp\19 APR 2004\10:09 AM\2 Capital Markets Overview Conditions Reflect Improving Macro Environment Historical Stock Price Performance (1) (% Change) JBLU: 30% Factset Research Systems Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 May-02 Aug-02 Nov-02 Feb-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Apr-04 Continental Airlines Delta Air Lines Northw est Airlines United Airlines American Airlines Southw est Airlines jetblue Airw ays LUV: -33% NWAC: -63% AMR: -67% CAL: -76% DAL: -84% UAL: -96% FactSet Note 1. Data as of April 12,
3 \\NYDFS1\ROOT\LIB\IBD\GCM\PRODUCT TEAMS\GLOBAL STRUCTURED CORPORATES\Equipment Finance Group\Conferences\Other Conferences\MIT\ cap markets overview.ppt\a2xp\19 APR 2004\10:09 AM\3 Unsecured Debt Trading Levels Have Improved Airline Benchmarks Historical Unsecured Airline Debt Levels (% Yield) 70% Yield levels for United Airlines exceeded 70% in Dec 02; Yields not tracked since bankruptcy 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% CAL: $97 NWAC: $93 AMR: $89 DAL: $79 ` DAL: 16.9 NWAC: 15.6 CAL: 12.8 AMR: 11.7 LUV: 5.3 0% Jun-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 Aug-02 Feb-03 Aug-03 Apr-04 NWAC 9.875% due 03/15/07 CAL 8.000% due 12/15/05 AMR 9.000% due 08/01/12 DAL 7.900% due 12/15/09 LUV 6.500% due 03/01/12 UALAQ 9.125% due 01/15/12 MS Fixed Income through April 12,
4 \\NYDFS1\ROOT\LIB\IBD\GCM\PRODUCT TEAMS\GLOBAL STRUCTURED CORPORATES\Equipment Finance Group\Conferences\Other Conferences\MIT\ cap markets overview.ppt\a2xp\19 APR 2004\10:09 AM\4 EETC Trading Levels Have Improved Airline Benchmarks 10-Year Spreads to Treasuries of Select EETC A-2 Tranches (1) (Bps) 1,200 1, UAL T DAL T+310 AMR T+310 NWAC T+289 CAL T+258 LUV L+90 (2) JBLU L+42 (2) 0 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Nov-01 Feb-02 May-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Apr-03 Jul-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 AMR A2 CAL A2 DAL A2 NWAC A2 UAL A2 JBLU G-2 LUV A-2 MS Fixed Income Notes 1. From January 2001 to April 12, Spread to LIBOR 3
5 \\NYDFS1\ROOT\LIB\IBD\GCM\PRODUCT TEAMS\GLOBAL STRUCTURED CORPORATES\Equipment Finance Group\Conferences\Other Conferences\MIT\ cap markets overview.ppt\a2xp\19 APR 2004\10:09 AM\5 Mainline s Debt Outlook Debt Profile (1) AMR CAL DAL NWAC UAL JBLU LUV Total Debt ($Bn) Debt/Cap (%) CASM Note 1. : Companies 10Ks 4
6 \\NYDFS1\ROOT\LIB\IBD\GCM\PRODUCT TEAMS\GLOBAL STRUCTURED CORPORATES\Equipment Finance Group\Conferences\Other Conferences\MIT\ cap markets overview.ppt\a2xp\19 APR 2004\10:09 AM\6 Convertibles in the Airline Industry January 2002 to Present Pricing Date Issuer Size $MM Coupon (%) Premium (%) Maturity First Put Call Protection Senior/Sub Structure 1/16/2002 Continental Airlines NC-3 Sr Cvt Debt 3/17/2003 Alaska Air Group 150 L+250bps NC-3 Sr Cvt Debt 5/1/2003 AirTran Holdings NC-7 Sr Cvt Debt 5/14/2003 Northwest Airlines Corp NC-7 Sr Cvt Debt 5/27/2003 Delta Air Lines NC-5 Sr Cvt Debt 6/4/2003 Continental Airlines NC-7 Sr Cvt Debt 6/11/2003 Mesa Air Group NC-5 Sr Cvt Debt 7/10/2003 JetBlue Airways NC-3,PC-2@150% Sr Cvt Debt 7/24/2003 America West Airlines NC-5 Sr Cvt Debt 7/30/2003 ExpressJet Holdings NC-5 Sr Cvt Debt 9/17/2003 AMR Corporation NC-5 Sr Cvt Debt 10/30/2003 Northwest Airlines Corp NC-3 Sr Cvt Debt 2/2/2004 Delta Air Lines NC-5 Sr Cvt Debt 2/4/2004 Mesa Air Group NC-5 Sr Cvt Debt 2/9/2004 AMR Corporation NC-5 Sr Cvt Debt 2/19/2004 Atlantic Coast Airlines, Inc NC-3 Sr Cvt Debt MS Fixed Income 5
7 \\NYDFS1\ROOT\LIB\IBD\GCM\PRODUCT TEAMS\GLOBAL STRUCTURED CORPORATES\Equipment Finance Group\Conferences\Other Conferences\MIT\ cap markets overview.ppt\a2xp\19 APR 2004\10:09 AM\7 Cumulative Capital Markets Aircraft-Backed Debt As of April 14, 2004 To date, the actual losses due to foreclosure have been better than the market s perception However, even with the recent rally in prices, there is $3.7 billion of trading losses EETC Payoff Profile Total Issuance Matured Defaulted Principal Principal Principal Prior Amort. Liquidation Lifetime Total No. ($MM) No. ($MM) No. ($MM) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM) (%) G 25 7, NA A 98 21, % B 70 6, % C 80 6, % D 19 1, % E NA Total , % ETC/PTC Payoff Profile Total Issuance Matured/Called Defaulted No. of No. of No. of Principal No. of Principal % of Total No. of Principal Prior Amort. Liquidation Lifetime Repayment Type Transactions Aircraft Tranches ($MM) Tranches ($MM) Issuance Tranches ($MM) ($MM) ($MM) ($MM) (%) ETC ,850 3,708 1,178 1, % PTC , , % 27 2, % Total ,963 11, ,210 3, % 309 2, % Secured Debt Market Valuation Outstanding Principal Estimated Valuation Security Type ($MM) Price ($) ($MM) ETC 1, ,008.2 PTC 3, ,406.1 Total 4, ,414.2 G 7, ,390.9 A 21, ,663.0 B 6, ,503.9 C 5, ,955.9 D 1, ,200.4 Total 41, ,714.1 Grand Total 46, ,128.4 Discount on issued airline secured principal ($MM) 3,
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