Beginner s Guide To Trading

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1 Beginner s Guide To Trading With Alessio Rastani LeadingTrader.com 1

2 Alessio Rastani 2

3 Alessio Rastani I am dreaming of a recession Governments don t rule the world, Goldman Sachs rules the world 3

4 Alessio Rastani Sir David Frost interview 4

5 "A must watch if you want to understand the Euro crisis and how markets work. Robert Peston (BBC Business Editor) leadingtrader.com 5

6 [Rastani s comments on being prepared] were COMPLETELY reasonable, especially for anyone who has been paying attention to the United States for the last three years. Wall Street Journal (27th September 2011) leadingtrader.com 6

7 Why do we trade? Being self-dependent Not having a boss Being financially independent No commuting into the City Recession proof your life. 7

8 4 YEARS Predict Your Future Income Statement Income Trading Business/Job Rents Income Expenses Six-pack of beer New Shoes Widescreen TV Football tickets Six-pack of beer Expenses Success Biographies Seminar on Trading Gym Membership Personal Coach Assets: Education Shares 1,2,3.. Mindset: Focused Immediate Action Job Assets: Home Mortgage Car Payment Mindset: I dunno Balance Sheet Home Mortgage Car Payment TV payment 8

9 Trading is a Game of Probability 9

10 Probabilities: Land on RED to win Wheel 2 Wheel 1 PUTTING THE ODDS IN YOUR FAVOUR: MINIMISE RISK MAXIMISE PROFITS Trading Success 10

11 Two Types of Information: Information for the masses, Information for the classes. Alexander Elder 11

12 Information for the Masses ( the herd ) 12

13 Information for the masses Most of the information from news channels on TV, Newspapers, Magazines What about CNBC and Bloomberg? Switch off CNBC and Blooomberg! Mostly GARBAGE! 13

14 Crash Of 2008 Market rallies

15 European Crisis 15

16 News is IRRELEVANT It does NOT matter what the news is. 16

17 What Is REALLY Going On? There are about 20 funds that do 80% of World s trading. They have between $ billion under management. They employ smartest individuals to figure out what the economic trends will be (e.g. unemployment). Example: If these Funds believe that in 3 month job figures will improve, they will decide to buy (& vice versa) 17

18 Charts (price action) Reveal Expectations of the clever money 18

19 The news itself does not tell you anything. Pay attention to the REACTION. THE REACTION to the news is what REALLY matters. 19

20 What are the insiders thinking? Are the Funds buying or selling on the news? 20

21 Information for the Classes ( insiders ) 21

22 Information for the Classes Whenever the smart money (funds / insiders) make decisions, they leave footprints Price patterns and signals. We follow their footprints by following the charts. Charts are visual representations of the markets. 22

23 Dow Theory The Markets reveal all available information. Everything there is to know is reflected in the markets through PRICE. The charts represent the sum of all the fears, hopes and the expectations of investors Everything about earnings expectations, interest rate expectations, product launches, are priced into the markets. 23

24 2 Types of Analysis: Fundamental Analysis: Earnings reports, Cashflow, Balance sheets, economy etc. Technical Analysis: Charts 24

25 Stock Market is a leading indicator of economy Stock market cycle Economic Cycle 25

26 Where is this market going? 26

27 It s clearly going down. 27

28 Price action remains negative (bearish) despite good news or recommendations. Therefore there is no reason to load up on this stock (or market) until the trend reverses from downwards to upwards (from bearish to bullish). P/E ratio Bloomberg recommendation Good earnings report 28

29 What are the Strongest & Weakest markets (or industries)? 29

30 Strong / Weak Industries LeadingTrader.com/industrytool 30

31 Strong / Weak Industries Long Term 31

32 Key Concepts 32

33 Key Concepts The MARKET consists of? BUYERS & SELLERS Price is determined by? SUPPLY & DEMAND Supply & Demand is determined by? The aggressiveness of Buyers ( bulls ) & Sellers ( bears ) 33

34 Bullish & Bearish 34

35 Bullish / Bearish Bullish: Buyers are more aggressive than sellers (buyers are in control) Market has greater probability of rising. Bearish: Sellers are more aggressive than buyers (sellers are in control) Market has greater probability of falling. 35

36 Long / Short Going LONG: Buying (or betting on market going higher). Selling Short (going short): Betting on market going lower (and profiting from lower prices). 36

37 Bar Charts (HLOC) 37

38 Bar Charts (HLOC) 38

39 Candlestick Charts 39

40 Candlestick Charts 40

41 Chart Timeframes Intra-day Timeframes: e.g. 5 min, 15 min, 60 min, 4 hour Daily, Weekly, Monthly Timeframes 41

42 5 minute chart: Each bar forms after every 5 min block of time. 42

43 Daily Chart Each bar forms after every single trading day. 43

44 Trading Styles Position Trading (or investing ): Holding a trade for more than a month (typically 2 6 months) Trading on Daily/Weekly/Monthly charts. Swing Trading: Holding a trade for more than 1 day (typically 3 14 days). Trading on 60 min/daily/weekly Charts. Day Trading: Enter a trade and Exit on the same day. No overnight positions. Trading on 5 min, 15 min, 60 min charts. Scalping: Very short term. Entering and exiting a trade for a few minutes & for a few ticks. NOT recommended for beginners! Trading on 1 min or tick charts. 44

45 Recommended Charts & Trading Platform: Click Here ETX Capital: (use this link to apply for a new account if you d like a demo account please us on ) For US & Canada: Tradestation leadingtrader.com/charting 45

46 Charts & Trading Platform: LeadingTrader.com/etx 46

47 Charts & Trading Platform: LeadingTrader.com/etx 47

48 Support & Resistance 48

49 CEILING (resistance) FLOOR (support) Ceiling & Floors NOT solid (not 49concrete)

50 Support & Resistance Price levels at which price stops going up or down. BUYERS (bulls) and SELLERS (bears) meet at these levels to do battle only one side will win 50

51 Areas where buyers and sellers are in agreement. Buying power and selling Power are in Equilibrium. 51

52 Example: RESISTANCE SUPPORT 52

53 Buyers (bulls) believe the price is low. They Buy. Increase demand. Price rises. As price rises, bulls become less aggressive. Bears become more aggressive. BREAKOUT from Resistance! RESISTANCE SUPPORT 53

54 Support & Resistance Highest Highs and Lowest Lows Any major top or bottom Trend Lines Moving Averages 54

55 Three Major Levels: 1. Highest High R Lowest Low S 2. Any MAJOR peaks or bottoms BIG ones 55

56 56

57 R R 57

58 S S S 58

59 A BREAKOUT occurs when Price moves through either Support or resistance. Either buyers or sellers become More aggressive (based on market Events). R S R S S 59

60 Trending vs. Oscillating Markets 60

61 Trending / Oscillating Markets Trending up, Trending down or Oscillating? TRENDING UP (Trending) TRENDING DOWN OSCILLATING (REVERSION TO THE MEAN) 61 1

62 Trending or Oscillating? 62

63 Oscillating = no directional bias 63

64 Trending or Oscillating? 64

65 Trending = market moves deliberately in one direction 65

66 Trend Lines = General Direction Join major peaks or bottoms Tops Down! 2 Bottoms up! Peaks TRENDING DOWN (lower highs) 1-2 Bottoms TRENDING UP (higher 66 lows) 53

67 Trends 67

68 Once a trend is in motion it will Usually continue in that direction 68

69 Trend Reversal WRITE THIS DOWN! A trendline is also support and resistance. 69

70 Only 2 Types of Trading Trading an OSCILLATING market: using reversion to the mean strategies. Trading a TRENDING market where the market moves in one direction deliberately: using trend based strategies. 70

71 Reversion To The Mean 71

72 LeadingTrader.com/etx Keltner Channels 13,1.5 72

73 Keltner channels are great for Oscillating markets. 73

74 Trending Markets Moving Averages PRICE PRICE MA 1 MA 2 Bias towards sell side Bias towards buy side MON TUE WED THUR FRI 74

75 75

76 76

77 77

78 SELL SELL BUY SELL BUY BUY 78

79 Moving Averages A moving average (MA) is a line that smooths out fluctuations in the stock price. e.g. An 8 day MA is the average of prices for the 8 most recent trading days. There are 2 types of Moving averages: simple and exponential. Simple gives weight to each day s price (SMA) Exponential gives extra weight to recent prices (EMA) 79

80 Starbucks (SBUX) 80

81 Starbucks (SBUX) Could you have made money when shares were going down? 1. Buy puts options. 2. Sell short. 81

82 Moving Averages Use a combination of 2 moving averages for crossovers: My favourite: 8 and 21 EMA for crossovers. You could also use: 13 EMA for entries. AND ALWAYS have on your chart: 50 SMA and 200 SMA (used by Funds) 82

83 Moving Averages 83

84 Moving Averages 8, 13, 21, 50, 200 MA 8 EMA 13 EMA 21 EMA 50 SMA 200 SMA 84

85 LeadingTrader.com/etx Moving Average 85

86 200 Moving average is a strong support / resistance zone S&P 500 held 200 MA as support and resistance 86

87 Moving Averages WARNING WRITE THIS DOWN! Moving Average crossovers only work when stocks are TRENDING. They do NOT work when stocks are Oscillating (reverting to the mean) We do NOT use them when stocks are oscillating. 87

88 Moving Averages WARNING 88

89 THIS IS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM TRADERS HAVE! Most Traders do NOT know when the Transition from an oscillating to trending market takes place. KNOWING THIS IS IMPORTANT! 89

90 ADX Average Directional Index ADX below 20 indicates Weakening trend (and choppy market) Rising ADX above 20 indicates strong trend 90

91 LeadingTrader.com/etx ADX (setting 14) 91

92 ADX Average Directional Index 92

93 ADX Average Directional Index 93

94 How can we know when markets are transitioning from oscillating to Trending? Use ADX average direction index (setting 14) If ADX is below 20 beware of a choppy market Use reversion to the mean strategies. For increasing Trend Strength: ADX above 20. PLUS Squeeze breakouts. 94

95 Squeeze Breakouts Squeeze Breakouts Squeeze forms when Bollinger bands (blue Lines) enter Keltner Channels (red lines). If MACD Momentum is above zero go long At breakout from squeeze (and vice versa). 95

96 Silver (weekly chart) Squeeze breakout Rising ADX above 20 indicates strong trend 96

97 LeadingTrader.com/etx Bollinger bands (20, 2), Keltner Channels (20,1.5) MACD (8, 21,9 histogram) 97

98 Important Reversal Patterns DOUBLE HEAD & BOTTOM SHOULDERS CUP 98

99 Dow Jones (YM) 99

100 Dow Jones (YM) 100

101 Google (GOOG) 101

102 Google (GOOG) 102

103 Google (GOOG) 103

104 104

105 105

106 Bearish Reversal Patterns 106

107 Gold 107

108 Gold 108

109 Gold 109

110 Volume 110

111 Volume Volume is the fuel that drives market moves. It measures the distribution of shares (or contracts) among buyers and sellers. An increasing volume indicates that buyers are more committed to their position more conviction behind the buying. 111

112 Momentum 112

113 We Don t Fight The Momentum! 113

114 We Don t Fight The Momentum! 114

115 We Take The Path Of LEAST Resistance 115

116 We Take The Path Of LEAST Resistance This gives you HIGHER PROBABILITY of success 116

117 leadingtrader.com What is the path of Least resistance in relation to trading the markets? 117

118 118

119 Trading With Momentum Netflix (NFLX) 119

120 Trading With Momentum Netflix (NFLX) Bottom? Bottom? Bottom? Momentum Below zero Momentum Goes above zero 120

121 Goldman Sachs Rule: when slow momentum MACD is above zero, focus on long setups & ignore short setups. When it is BELOW momentum, focus on shorts & ignore longs. Momentum Below zero Momentum Goes above zero 121

122 AIG Momentum Below zero 122

123 Gold Momentum above zero 123

124 Momentum Measures the speed and force of a trend Imagine a ball thrown in the air (it loses momentum and comes back down) When (slow) momentum is ABOVE zero, path of least resistance is to the BUY side. When (slow) momentum is BELOW zero, path of least resistance is to the SELL side. Use a MACD with 20,43,3 setting. 124

125 LeadingTrader.com/etx MACD Histogram (setting 20,43,3) 125

126 Trading Golden Rules 126

127 Trading Golden Rules 1) Be decisive: Take Action 2) Cut your losses short 127

128 The Typical Trader BUY Price SELL 128

129 Use Stop Loss Orders To Control Risk Unlimited Profit Sell order Sell order Limited loss Sell order Buy 1 2 Sell order 129

130 Stop-Loss & Risk Q1. Where do we place our stop-loss at the point of ENTRY? Q2. How do we trail the stop? 130

131 Minimising Risk (stop-loss) LeadingTrader.com/etx Average True Range (ATR) 131

132 Average True Range (ATR) Apple (AAPL) Average True Range (ATR) is a measure of volatility. 132

133 Average True Range (ATR) Dow Jones Index Futures High ATR readings require WIDER stops! 133

134 Average True Range (ATR) Dow Jones Index Futures High ATR readings require WIDER stops! 134

135 Average True Range (ATR) (setting 14) Rule For Stop-Loss: 2 x ATR For example: if ATR is equal to 10 points, then use a stop-loss 20 points away from your entry. Why? Because (ATR x 2) = (10 x 2) = 20 pts 135

136 Trailing Stops using 21 EMA Trail your stops behind the 21 Moving Average (EMA) the blue line. 136

137 Trailing Stops using 21 EMA Trail your stops behind the 21 Moving Average (EMA). 137

138 Fibonacci Retracement Markets will usually Retrace 50% to 61.8% of their previous moves. 138

139 Fibonacci Retracement LeadingTrader.com/etx 139

140 Fibonacci Retracement 140

141 Fibonacci Retracement 141

142 Can you spot the Fibonacci Retracements? Dow Jones Index 142

143 Fibonacci Retracement Dow Jones Index 143

144 Focus on following your plan NOT whether you re winning/losing 144

145 Give up mindset of confirmation of confirmation. Make a decision! leadingtrader.com 145

146 What do you need to do to achieve your wealth goals? leadingtrader.com 146

147 Take action and Get Started Now! leadingtrader.com 147

148 Get Started Ultimate Momentum trading strategies: Learn Momentum Trading. Helps you identify entry points in fast moving markets. Teaches you the correct entry points, exit points and where to place stops and manage your trade. The whole strategy (3 hours content) on CD-ROM

149 Get Started Complete DAYTRADING setups & strategies: Includes; Specific day trading strategies with over 6 hours of material. 10 different setups/strategies Which indicators to use Using market breadth Trading psychology How to test your setups Setups such as the PS Swing; GY; DT Div; SC; and more... Plus the option to join our live online trading room (live trade149 calls and chat) 149

150 Get Started Complete DAYTRADING setups & strategies: Strategy #1: The secret to knowing when people are panicking & how to take advantage. Strategy #2: How to know when a market is about to reverse. Strategy #3: The best way to profit from both rising and falling markets. Strategy #4: The biggest mistake made by traders and how you can profit from this. Strategy #5: We reveal how to know when a market is ready for trading. Plus 5 more daytrading setups

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