Beginner s Guide To Trading
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1 Beginner s Guide To Trading With Alessio Rastani LeadingTrader.com 1
2 Alessio Rastani 2
3 Alessio Rastani I am dreaming of a recession Governments don t rule the world, Goldman Sachs rules the world 3
4 Alessio Rastani Sir David Frost interview 4
5 "A must watch if you want to understand the Euro crisis and how markets work. Robert Peston (BBC Business Editor) leadingtrader.com 5
6 [Rastani s comments on being prepared] were COMPLETELY reasonable, especially for anyone who has been paying attention to the United States for the last three years. Wall Street Journal (27th September 2011) leadingtrader.com 6
7 Why do we trade? Being self-dependent Not having a boss Being financially independent No commuting into the City Recession proof your life. 7
8 4 YEARS Predict Your Future Income Statement Income Trading Business/Job Rents Income Expenses Six-pack of beer New Shoes Widescreen TV Football tickets Six-pack of beer Expenses Success Biographies Seminar on Trading Gym Membership Personal Coach Assets: Education Shares 1,2,3.. Mindset: Focused Immediate Action Job Assets: Home Mortgage Car Payment Mindset: I dunno Balance Sheet Home Mortgage Car Payment TV payment 8
9 Trading is a Game of Probability 9
10 Probabilities: Land on RED to win Wheel 2 Wheel 1 PUTTING THE ODDS IN YOUR FAVOUR: MINIMISE RISK MAXIMISE PROFITS Trading Success 10
11 Two Types of Information: Information for the masses, Information for the classes. Alexander Elder 11
12 Information for the Masses ( the herd ) 12
13 Information for the masses Most of the information from news channels on TV, Newspapers, Magazines What about CNBC and Bloomberg? Switch off CNBC and Blooomberg! Mostly GARBAGE! 13
14 Crash Of 2008 Market rallies
15 European Crisis 15
16 News is IRRELEVANT It does NOT matter what the news is. 16
17 What Is REALLY Going On? There are about 20 funds that do 80% of World s trading. They have between $ billion under management. They employ smartest individuals to figure out what the economic trends will be (e.g. unemployment). Example: If these Funds believe that in 3 month job figures will improve, they will decide to buy (& vice versa) 17
18 Charts (price action) Reveal Expectations of the clever money 18
19 The news itself does not tell you anything. Pay attention to the REACTION. THE REACTION to the news is what REALLY matters. 19
20 What are the insiders thinking? Are the Funds buying or selling on the news? 20
21 Information for the Classes ( insiders ) 21
22 Information for the Classes Whenever the smart money (funds / insiders) make decisions, they leave footprints Price patterns and signals. We follow their footprints by following the charts. Charts are visual representations of the markets. 22
23 Dow Theory The Markets reveal all available information. Everything there is to know is reflected in the markets through PRICE. The charts represent the sum of all the fears, hopes and the expectations of investors Everything about earnings expectations, interest rate expectations, product launches, are priced into the markets. 23
24 2 Types of Analysis: Fundamental Analysis: Earnings reports, Cashflow, Balance sheets, economy etc. Technical Analysis: Charts 24
25 Stock Market is a leading indicator of economy Stock market cycle Economic Cycle 25
26 Where is this market going? 26
27 It s clearly going down. 27
28 Price action remains negative (bearish) despite good news or recommendations. Therefore there is no reason to load up on this stock (or market) until the trend reverses from downwards to upwards (from bearish to bullish). P/E ratio Bloomberg recommendation Good earnings report 28
29 What are the Strongest & Weakest markets (or industries)? 29
30 Strong / Weak Industries LeadingTrader.com/industrytool 30
31 Strong / Weak Industries Long Term 31
32 Key Concepts 32
33 Key Concepts The MARKET consists of? BUYERS & SELLERS Price is determined by? SUPPLY & DEMAND Supply & Demand is determined by? The aggressiveness of Buyers ( bulls ) & Sellers ( bears ) 33
34 Bullish & Bearish 34
35 Bullish / Bearish Bullish: Buyers are more aggressive than sellers (buyers are in control) Market has greater probability of rising. Bearish: Sellers are more aggressive than buyers (sellers are in control) Market has greater probability of falling. 35
36 Long / Short Going LONG: Buying (or betting on market going higher). Selling Short (going short): Betting on market going lower (and profiting from lower prices). 36
37 Bar Charts (HLOC) 37
38 Bar Charts (HLOC) 38
39 Candlestick Charts 39
40 Candlestick Charts 40
41 Chart Timeframes Intra-day Timeframes: e.g. 5 min, 15 min, 60 min, 4 hour Daily, Weekly, Monthly Timeframes 41
42 5 minute chart: Each bar forms after every 5 min block of time. 42
43 Daily Chart Each bar forms after every single trading day. 43
44 Trading Styles Position Trading (or investing ): Holding a trade for more than a month (typically 2 6 months) Trading on Daily/Weekly/Monthly charts. Swing Trading: Holding a trade for more than 1 day (typically 3 14 days). Trading on 60 min/daily/weekly Charts. Day Trading: Enter a trade and Exit on the same day. No overnight positions. Trading on 5 min, 15 min, 60 min charts. Scalping: Very short term. Entering and exiting a trade for a few minutes & for a few ticks. NOT recommended for beginners! Trading on 1 min or tick charts. 44
45 Recommended Charts & Trading Platform: Click Here ETX Capital: (use this link to apply for a new account if you d like a demo account please us on support@leadingtrader.com ) For US & Canada: Tradestation leadingtrader.com/charting 45
46 Charts & Trading Platform: LeadingTrader.com/etx 46
47 Charts & Trading Platform: LeadingTrader.com/etx 47
48 Support & Resistance 48
49 CEILING (resistance) FLOOR (support) Ceiling & Floors NOT solid (not 49concrete)
50 Support & Resistance Price levels at which price stops going up or down. BUYERS (bulls) and SELLERS (bears) meet at these levels to do battle only one side will win 50
51 Areas where buyers and sellers are in agreement. Buying power and selling Power are in Equilibrium. 51
52 Example: RESISTANCE SUPPORT 52
53 Buyers (bulls) believe the price is low. They Buy. Increase demand. Price rises. As price rises, bulls become less aggressive. Bears become more aggressive. BREAKOUT from Resistance! RESISTANCE SUPPORT 53
54 Support & Resistance Highest Highs and Lowest Lows Any major top or bottom Trend Lines Moving Averages 54
55 Three Major Levels: 1. Highest High R Lowest Low S 2. Any MAJOR peaks or bottoms BIG ones 55
56 56
57 R R 57
58 S S S 58
59 A BREAKOUT occurs when Price moves through either Support or resistance. Either buyers or sellers become More aggressive (based on market Events). R S R S S 59
60 Trending vs. Oscillating Markets 60
61 Trending / Oscillating Markets Trending up, Trending down or Oscillating? TRENDING UP (Trending) TRENDING DOWN OSCILLATING (REVERSION TO THE MEAN) 61 1
62 Trending or Oscillating? 62
63 Oscillating = no directional bias 63
64 Trending or Oscillating? 64
65 Trending = market moves deliberately in one direction 65
66 Trend Lines = General Direction Join major peaks or bottoms Tops Down! 2 Bottoms up! Peaks TRENDING DOWN (lower highs) 1-2 Bottoms TRENDING UP (higher 66 lows) 53
67 Trends 67
68 Once a trend is in motion it will Usually continue in that direction 68
69 Trend Reversal WRITE THIS DOWN! A trendline is also support and resistance. 69
70 Only 2 Types of Trading Trading an OSCILLATING market: using reversion to the mean strategies. Trading a TRENDING market where the market moves in one direction deliberately: using trend based strategies. 70
71 Reversion To The Mean 71
72 LeadingTrader.com/etx Keltner Channels 13,1.5 72
73 Keltner channels are great for Oscillating markets. 73
74 Trending Markets Moving Averages PRICE PRICE MA 1 MA 2 Bias towards sell side Bias towards buy side MON TUE WED THUR FRI 74
75 75
76 76
77 77
78 SELL SELL BUY SELL BUY BUY 78
79 Moving Averages A moving average (MA) is a line that smooths out fluctuations in the stock price. e.g. An 8 day MA is the average of prices for the 8 most recent trading days. There are 2 types of Moving averages: simple and exponential. Simple gives weight to each day s price (SMA) Exponential gives extra weight to recent prices (EMA) 79
80 Starbucks (SBUX) 80
81 Starbucks (SBUX) Could you have made money when shares were going down? 1. Buy puts options. 2. Sell short. 81
82 Moving Averages Use a combination of 2 moving averages for crossovers: My favourite: 8 and 21 EMA for crossovers. You could also use: 13 EMA for entries. AND ALWAYS have on your chart: 50 SMA and 200 SMA (used by Funds) 82
83 Moving Averages 83
84 Moving Averages 8, 13, 21, 50, 200 MA 8 EMA 13 EMA 21 EMA 50 SMA 200 SMA 84
85 LeadingTrader.com/etx Moving Average 85
86 200 Moving average is a strong support / resistance zone S&P 500 held 200 MA as support and resistance 86
87 Moving Averages WARNING WRITE THIS DOWN! Moving Average crossovers only work when stocks are TRENDING. They do NOT work when stocks are Oscillating (reverting to the mean) We do NOT use them when stocks are oscillating. 87
88 Moving Averages WARNING 88
89 THIS IS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM TRADERS HAVE! Most Traders do NOT know when the Transition from an oscillating to trending market takes place. KNOWING THIS IS IMPORTANT! 89
90 ADX Average Directional Index ADX below 20 indicates Weakening trend (and choppy market) Rising ADX above 20 indicates strong trend 90
91 LeadingTrader.com/etx ADX (setting 14) 91
92 ADX Average Directional Index 92
93 ADX Average Directional Index 93
94 How can we know when markets are transitioning from oscillating to Trending? Use ADX average direction index (setting 14) If ADX is below 20 beware of a choppy market Use reversion to the mean strategies. For increasing Trend Strength: ADX above 20. PLUS Squeeze breakouts. 94
95 Squeeze Breakouts Squeeze Breakouts Squeeze forms when Bollinger bands (blue Lines) enter Keltner Channels (red lines). If MACD Momentum is above zero go long At breakout from squeeze (and vice versa). 95
96 Silver (weekly chart) Squeeze breakout Rising ADX above 20 indicates strong trend 96
97 LeadingTrader.com/etx Bollinger bands (20, 2), Keltner Channels (20,1.5) MACD (8, 21,9 histogram) 97
98 Important Reversal Patterns DOUBLE HEAD & BOTTOM SHOULDERS CUP 98
99 Dow Jones (YM) 99
100 Dow Jones (YM) 100
101 Google (GOOG) 101
102 Google (GOOG) 102
103 Google (GOOG) 103
104 104
105 105
106 Bearish Reversal Patterns 106
107 Gold 107
108 Gold 108
109 Gold 109
110 Volume 110
111 Volume Volume is the fuel that drives market moves. It measures the distribution of shares (or contracts) among buyers and sellers. An increasing volume indicates that buyers are more committed to their position more conviction behind the buying. 111
112 Momentum 112
113 We Don t Fight The Momentum! 113
114 We Don t Fight The Momentum! 114
115 We Take The Path Of LEAST Resistance 115
116 We Take The Path Of LEAST Resistance This gives you HIGHER PROBABILITY of success 116
117 leadingtrader.com What is the path of Least resistance in relation to trading the markets? 117
118 118
119 Trading With Momentum Netflix (NFLX) 119
120 Trading With Momentum Netflix (NFLX) Bottom? Bottom? Bottom? Momentum Below zero Momentum Goes above zero 120
121 Goldman Sachs Rule: when slow momentum MACD is above zero, focus on long setups & ignore short setups. When it is BELOW momentum, focus on shorts & ignore longs. Momentum Below zero Momentum Goes above zero 121
122 AIG Momentum Below zero 122
123 Gold Momentum above zero 123
124 Momentum Measures the speed and force of a trend Imagine a ball thrown in the air (it loses momentum and comes back down) When (slow) momentum is ABOVE zero, path of least resistance is to the BUY side. When (slow) momentum is BELOW zero, path of least resistance is to the SELL side. Use a MACD with 20,43,3 setting. 124
125 LeadingTrader.com/etx MACD Histogram (setting 20,43,3) 125
126 Trading Golden Rules 126
127 Trading Golden Rules 1) Be decisive: Take Action 2) Cut your losses short 127
128 The Typical Trader BUY Price SELL 128
129 Use Stop Loss Orders To Control Risk Unlimited Profit Sell order Sell order Limited loss Sell order Buy 1 2 Sell order 129
130 Stop-Loss & Risk Q1. Where do we place our stop-loss at the point of ENTRY? Q2. How do we trail the stop? 130
131 Minimising Risk (stop-loss) LeadingTrader.com/etx Average True Range (ATR) 131
132 Average True Range (ATR) Apple (AAPL) Average True Range (ATR) is a measure of volatility. 132
133 Average True Range (ATR) Dow Jones Index Futures High ATR readings require WIDER stops! 133
134 Average True Range (ATR) Dow Jones Index Futures High ATR readings require WIDER stops! 134
135 Average True Range (ATR) (setting 14) Rule For Stop-Loss: 2 x ATR For example: if ATR is equal to 10 points, then use a stop-loss 20 points away from your entry. Why? Because (ATR x 2) = (10 x 2) = 20 pts 135
136 Trailing Stops using 21 EMA Trail your stops behind the 21 Moving Average (EMA) the blue line. 136
137 Trailing Stops using 21 EMA Trail your stops behind the 21 Moving Average (EMA). 137
138 Fibonacci Retracement Markets will usually Retrace 50% to 61.8% of their previous moves. 138
139 Fibonacci Retracement LeadingTrader.com/etx 139
140 Fibonacci Retracement 140
141 Fibonacci Retracement 141
142 Can you spot the Fibonacci Retracements? Dow Jones Index 142
143 Fibonacci Retracement Dow Jones Index 143
144 Focus on following your plan NOT whether you re winning/losing 144
145 Give up mindset of confirmation of confirmation. Make a decision! leadingtrader.com 145
146 What do you need to do to achieve your wealth goals? leadingtrader.com 146
147 Take action and Get Started Now! leadingtrader.com 147
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