City of Stockton Housing Element. Background Report

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1 City of Stockton Housing Element Background Report Adopted May 18, 2010

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3 CITY OF STOCKTON HOUSING ELEMENT BACKGROUND REPORT Adopted May 18, 2010

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5 4. Housing City of Stockton Housing Element Background Report Table of Contents SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION... 1 OVERVIEW OF STATE REQUIREMENTS... 1 GENERAL PLAN AND HOUSING ELEMENT CONSISTENCY... 3 GENERAL PLAN AND HOUSING ELEMENT DIFFERENCES... 3 PUBLIC PARTICIPATION... 4 Community/Stakeholder Input... 5 SECTION 2: EXISTING NEEDS ASSESSMENT... 7 MAJOR FINDINGS... 7 INTRODUCTION... 9 DEMOGRAPHIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROFILE... 9 Demographics Income and Employment Population and Employment Projections HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS AND HOUSING SUPPLY Household Characteristics Housing Inventory and Supply SPECIAL HOUSING NEEDS Senior Households Persons with Disabilities Large Families/Households Female-Headed Households Farmworkers Persons in Need of Emergency Shelter Persons Diagnosed with AIDS and Related Diseases Extremely Low-Income Households Southeast Asian Households SUMMARY OF EXISTING HOUSING NEEDS SECTION 3: FUTURE HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT MAJOR FINDINGS INTRODUCTION REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATION Remaining 2002 RHNA COMPARISON OF HOUSING UNIT PRODUCTION WITH PROJECTED HOUSING NEEDS Affordability Assumptions for Market-Rate Development Approved Subdivisions and Projects Approved Affordable Housing Projects Remaining Need SECTION 4: LAND INVENTORY INTRODUCTION May 18, 2010 Background Report Page 4-i

6 Stockton General Plan Methodology for Identifying Housing Sites Opportunity Sites Available for Residential Development Total Holding Capacity vs. Projected Needs by Income Group Adequacy of Public Facilities and Infrastructure SECTION 5: HOUSING PROGRAMS AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES INTRODUCTION MAJOR FINDINGS LOCAL HOUSING PROGRAMS City of Stockton Stockton Redevelopment Agency San Joaquin Housing Authority Local Fair Housing Service Agencies FEDERAL HOUSING PROGRAMS Entitlement Funds Neighborhood Stabilization Program Section 811 Program Section 202 Program Low-Income Tax Credits STATE FUNDING PROGRAMS Proposition 1C Funding Multifamily Housing Program Building Equity and Growth in Neighborhoods (BEGIN) Program Infill Incentive Grant (IIG) Program Workforce Housing Reward (WHR) Program PRIVATE FUNDING SUMMARY OF LOCAL, STATE, AND FEDERAL PROGRAMS AND RESOURCES ASSISTED HOUSING PROJECTS IN STOCKTON PRESERVING AT-RISK UNITS Preservation Options ENERGY CONSERVATION OPPORTUNITIES New Residential Energy Standards Subdivision Design for Heating or Cooling Opportunities Weatherization Activities SECTION 6: POTENTIAL HOUSING CONSTRAINTS MAJOR FINDINGS INTRODUCTION POTENTIAL GOVERNMENTAL CONSTRAINTS Land Use Controls Provisions for Second Units Manufactured Homes and Mobile Home Parks General Plan Settlement Agreement Building Codes and Enforcement Parking Standards On/Off Site Improvement Requirements Open Space and Park Requirements Processing and Permit Procedures Development Fees and Other Exactions Density Bonus Page 4-ii Background Report May 18, 2010

7 4. Housing State of California, Article Housing for Persons with Special Needs POTENTIAL NON-GOVERNMENTAL CONSTRAINTS Availability of Financing Development Costs SECTION 7: EVALUATION INTRODUCTION to 2008 Accomplishments On-Going Efforts REVIEW OF EXISTING (2004) HOUSING ELEMENT BIBLIOGRAPHY AGENCIES, ORGANIZATIONS, AND PERSONS CONTACTED WEBSITES REPORTS/DOCUMENTS APPENDICES APPENDIX A: RESIDENTIAL LAND INVENTORY APPENDIX B: RESPONSES TO SB520 ANALYSIS QUESTIONS APPENDIX C: COMMUNITY/STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS APPENDIX C: COMMUNITY/STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS APPENDIX E: LIST OF ACRONYMS May 18, 2010 Background Report Page 4-iii

8 Stockton General Plan List of Tables Table 4-1 Historical Population Change Table 4-2 Population Change Table 4-3 Age Characteristics Table 4-4 Population Breakdown by Race and Ethnicity Table 4-5 Household Income Distribution Table 4-6 Median Income Table 4-7 Employment by Industry Table 4-8 Population and Employment Projections Table 4-9 Family and Non-Family Households Table 4-10 Tenure Table 4-11 Overcrowding Table 4-12 Household Size by Tenure Table 4-13 Number of Bedrooms by Tenure Table 4-14 Average Household Size by Tenure Table 4-15 Housing Stock by Type Table 4-16 Occupancy/Vacancy Table 4-17 Vacant Units by Type Table 4-18 Age of Housing Stock & Housing Stock Conditions by Tenure Table 4-19 Housing Conditions in Redevelopment Agency Project Areas Table 4-20 Code Enforcement Cases Table 4-21 Housing Cost Burden by Household Income Classification Table 4-22 Housing Cost Burden By Household Type & Household Income Classification Table 4-23 HUD Income Limits based on Persons per Household Table 4-24 Ability to Pay for Housing based on HUD Income Limits Table 4-25 HUD Fair Market Rent Table 4-26 Affordable Rents and Housing Prices by Income and Occupation Table 4-27 Median New Home Prices Table 4-28 Resale Home Prices Table 4-29 Apartment Rental Rates Table 4-30 Senior Populations and Households Table 4-31 Housing Cost Burden by Age and Tenure Table 4-32 Disability Status & Types of Disabilities by Age Group, Persons Five Years & Older Table 4-33 Large Households Table 4-34 Single Female-Headed Households with Children Table 4-35 Overnight and Emergency Facilities Table 4-36 Transitional Housing and Supportive Housing Table 4-37 Emergency and Transitional Shelter Provider Capacities Table 4-38 Housing Cost Burden of Extremely Low-Income Households Table 4-39 Year of Entry for Asian-Born Residents Table 4-40 Comparison of Overcrowding Among Asian and Non-Asian Households Table 4-41 Regional Housing Needs Allocation by Income Page 4-iv Background Report May 18, 2010

9 4. Housing Table 4-42 Sites Rezoned to Residential High Density Table 4-43 Adjusted Regional Housing Needs Allocation by Income Table 4-44 Built and Approved Market-Rate Units in Subdivisions and Projects Table 4-45 Approved and Built Affordable Housing Table 4-46 Remaining Need Based on Built and Approved Units Table 4-47 Site Assemblage Examples Table 4-48 Typical Densities by Area Table 4-49 Second Unit Trends Table 4-50 Vacant and Underutilized Sites Inventory Table 4-51 Second Unit Trends Table 4-52 Opportunity Sites Inventory Table 4-53 Affordable Housing Program Expenditures Table 4-54 Tax Increment Funds Transferred to LMIH Fund Table 4-55 San Joaquin Housing Authority Public Housing Table 4-56 Financial Resources for Housing Table 4-57 Assisted Rental Housing Developments Table 4-58 Federally Subsidized Rental Projects At-Risk Table 4-59 Estimated Acquisition/Rehabilitation Costs Table 4-60 Estimated Cost to Subsidize Rents Table 4-61 Estimated Replacement Costs Table 4-62 General Plan Land Use Designations Allowing Residential Uses Table 4-63 Village Development Intensity Standards Table 4-64 Village Neighborhood Types Table 4-65 Residential Zoning Districts Table 4-66 Permitted and Conditionally Permitted Uses Table 4-67 Setback, Lot Coverage, and Height Requirements in Residential Zones Table 4-68 Allowable Land Uses and Permit Requirements for Residential Infill Projects Table 4-69 Required Off-Street Parking Spaces Table 4-70 Community Development/Planning Division Schedule of Residential Processing Times Table 4-71 Development Impact and Planning-Related Fees Table 4-72 Statewide Parking Standards for Affordable Housing Table 4-73 Estimated Single-Family Housing Development Costs Table 4-74 Evaluation of Stockton 2004 Housing Element Programs Table A-1 Subdivisions and Projects Approved and Under Construction Table A-2 Housing Opportunity Sites Inventory May 18, 2010 Background Report Page 4-v

10 Stockton General Plan List of Figures Figure 4-1 Personal Income Figure 4-2 Unemployment Rate Figure 4-3 Owner-Occupied and Renter-Occupied Housing Units Figure 4-4 Median Home Price (New and Resale) Figure 4-5 Opportunity Sites Areas Page 4-vi Background Report May 18, 2010

11 4. Housing SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION State housing element law (Government Code Section 65580) mandates that local governments must adequately plan to meet the existing and projected housing needs of all economic segments of the community. This section provides a snapshot of current (February 2009) information on household characteristics, housing needs, housing supply, land inventory for new development, housing programs, constraints, and incentives for new housing development. It also evaluates progress made since the last Housing Element was adopted in Overview of State Requirements State law recognizes the vital role local governments play in the supply and affordability of housing. Each local government in California is required to adopt a comprehensive, longterm general plan for the physical development of their city or county. The housing element is one of the seven mandated elements of the general plan. State law requires local government plans to address the existing and projected housing needs of all economic segments of the community through their housing elements. The law acknowledges that in order for the private market to adequately address housing needs and demand, local governments must adopt land use plans and regulatory systems that provide opportunities for, and do not unduly constrain, housing development. As a result, housing policy in the state rests largely upon the effective implementation of local general plans, local housing elements in particular. The purpose of the housing element is to identify the community's housing needs, to state the community's goals and objectives with regard to housing production, rehabilitation, and conservation to meet those needs, and to define the policies and programs that the community will implement to achieve the stated goals and objectives. State law requires cities and counties to address the needs of all income groups in their housing elements. The official definition of these needs is provided by the California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) for each city and county within its geographic jurisdiction. Beyond these income-based housing needs, the housing element must also address special needs groups such as persons with disabilities and homeless persons. State housing law (Government Code Section 65580) requires an assessment of housing needs and an inventory of resources and constraints relevant to meeting those needs. The assessment and inventory must include all of the following: Analysis of population and employment trends and documentation of projections and a quantification of the locality's existing and projected housing needs for all income levels. Such existing and projected needs shall include the locality's share of the regional housing need. May 18, 2010 Background Report Page 4-1

12 Stockton General Plan Analysis and documentation of household characteristics, including level of payment compared to ability to pay, housing characteristics, including overcrowding, and housing stock condition. An inventory of land suitable for residential development, including vacant sites and sites having potential for redevelopment, and an analysis of the relationship of zoning, public facilities, and city services to these sites. The identification of a zone or zones where emergency shelters are allowed as a permitted use without a conditional use or other discretionary permit. Analysis of potential and actual governmental constraints upon the maintenance, improvement, or development of housing for all income levels, including land use controls, building codes and their enforcement, site improvements, fees and other exaction's required of developers, and local processing and permit procedures. Analysis of local efforts to remove governmental constraints. Analysis of potential and actual non-governmental constraints upon the maintenance, improvement, or development of housing for all income levels, including the availability of financing, the price of land, and the cost of construction. Analysis of any special housing needs for the elderly, persons with disabilities, large families, farmworkers, families with female heads of households, and families and persons in need of emergency shelter. Analysis of opportunities for energy conservation with respect to residential development. Analysis of at-risk assisted housing developments that are eligible to change from low-income housing uses during the next 10 years. The Housing Element Background Report identifies the nature and extent of the City s housing needs, which in turn provides the basis for the City s response to those needs in the Housing Element Policy Document. In addition to identifying housing needs, the Background Report also presents information on the setting in which the needs occur, which provides a better understanding of the community and facilitates planning for housing. The Background Report satisfies State requirements and provides the foundation for the goals, policies, implementation programs, and quantified objectives. The Background Report sections draw on a broad range of informational sources. Information on population, housing stock, and economics comes primarily from the 2000 U.S. Census, 2007 American Community Survey, the California Department of Finance (DOF), and City of Stockton records. Information on available sites and services for housing comes from numerous public agencies. Information on constraints on housing production and past and current housing efforts in the City of Stockton comes from City staff, other public agencies, and a number of private sources. Page 4-2 Background Report May 18, 2010

13 4. Housing General Plan and Housing Element Consistency The Housing Element is a component of the 2035 General Plan, which provides guiding policy for all growth and development within the City. The General Plan consists of eleven elements that address both State-mandated planning issues plus optional subjects that are of particular concern within Stockton. These elements are: Land Use Economic Development Community Design Economic Development Districts and Villages Transportation and Circulation Public Facilities and Services Recreation and Waterways Health and Safety Youth and Education Natural and Cultural Resources This Housing Element, adopted May 18, 2010, updates the City of Stockton 2035 General Plan Housing Element that was adopted in During the process of this Update, the City has conducted an internal consistency review to ensure consistency between the Housing Element and all other elements of the General Plan. Upon adoption, the updated Housing Element Background report will be internally consistent with all other elements of the General Plan. General Plan and Housing Element Differences The housing element is one of seven State-mandated elements that every general plan must contain. Although the housing element must follow all the requirements of the general plan, the housing element has several State-mandated requirements that distinguish it from other general plan elements. Whereas the State allows local government the ability to decide when to update their general plan, State law sets the schedule for periodic update (five-year time frame) of the housing element. Local governments are also required to submit draft and adopted housing elements to HCD for State law compliance review. This review ensures that the housing element meets the various State mandates. When the City satisfies these requirements, the State will certify that the element is legally adequate. Failing to comply with State law could result in potentially serious consequences such as reduced access to infrastructure, transportation, and housing funding and vulnerability to lawsuits. May 18, 2010 Background Report Page 4-3

14 Stockton General Plan Public Participation As part of the Housing Element update process, the City implemented the State s public participation requirements in Housing Element Law, set forth in Government Code Section 65583(c)(7), that jurisdictions shall make a diligent effort to achieve participation of all economic segments of the community in the development of the housing element. The public outreach process began during the early stages of the Housing Element update. City staff and the Housing Element Consultants held two community/stakeholder workshops to solicit input from individuals and organizations in the community including local residents, both non-profit and for-profit housing developers, and social service providers. The City advertised the workshops on the City s homepage and Housing Element Update website, public notice in local newspapers, and through distribution of an announcement to the aforementioned stakeholder groups. The following is an outline of the City s public outreach program: March 12, 2009 Community/Stakeholder Workshop #1 The Housing Element Consultants made a presentation to community members and local stakeholders with an overview of the Housing Element update process, a description of State housing law requirements, and a summary of preliminary findings from the Housing Element Background Report. Following the presentation, the Consultants and City staff held a roundtable discussion in which they asked the workshop participants to identify key housing issues and possible solutions to address the issues. (See Appendix C for a list of workshop participants.) June 30, 2009 Community/Stakeholder Workshop #2The City held a second community/stakeholder workshop after releasing the Draft Housing Element for public review. The Housing Element Consultants presented the findings of the residential sites inventory and the draft policies and programs of the updated Housing Element. During the discussion of the policies and programs, workshop participants were asked to provide feedback on whether or not the proposed policies and programs were appropriate to meet the needs of Stockton residents. The City made edits to the Draft Housing Element based on the feedback gathered at the workshop. (See Appendix C for a list of workshop participants.) July 14, 2009 Council Housing Committee The Housing Element Consultants made a presentation to the Council Housing Committee with an overview of the Housing Element process, the details of the residential sites inventory, a summary of the issues raised at the two stakeholder community workshops, and a description of the proposed policies and programs of the Draft Housing Element. July 23, 2009 Informational Presentation to Planning Commission The Housing Element Consultants made a presentation to the Planning Commission with an overview of the Housing Element process, the details of the residential sites inventory, a summary of the issues raised at the two stakeholder community workshops, and a description of the proposed policies and programs of the Draft Housing Element. Page 4-4 Background Report May 18, 2010

15 4. Housing July 28, 2009 Informational Presentation to City Council The Housing Element Consultants made a presentation to the City Council with an overview of the Housing Element process, the details of the residential sites inventory, a summary of the issues raised at the two stakeholder community workshops, and a description of the proposed policies and programs of the Draft Housing Element. March 11, 2010 Planning Commission Public Hearing On March 11, 2010, the Planning Commission made a recommendation to forward the Housing Element to the City Council for approval and final adoption. May 18, 2010 City Council Public Hearing On May 18, 2010, the City Council adopted the Housing Element after hearing a brief presentation from City staff and public comment. Community/Stakeholder Input Based on input gathered during the public participation process, the Housing Element Consultants identified the following issues and potential solutions as being of the greatest importance to the stakeholders and community members that participated. These perceptions are not necessarily those of the Consultants, the City of Stockton, or the community at large. The input provided by the community members and housing stakeholders was used to shape the Housing Element policies and programs. Affordable and High-Density Housing Need affordable single-family and multi-family housing for persons of all incomes and special needs. Stockton has not been producing housing that matches the incomes of its residents (i.e., low-income units). Housing needs of the working population are not being addressed. Need moderateincome housing. There is a lack of affordable housing for single people (e.g., single room occupancy units (SROs). Lower-income housing is concentrated in South Stockton, near freeways. Ensure that affordable housing is dispersed, not concentrated, to create more diverse communities. NIMBYism against high-density housing is a problem. Develop programs to make private sector responsible for affordable housing. Need to allow and encourage higher densities, especially in the Downtown. Consider fee waivers and other incentives for affordable housing. May 18, 2010 Background Report Page 4-5

16 Stockton General Plan Need to examine implementation of density bonus law. Need affordable housing component in new subdivisions. Remove use permit requirement for higher-density housing (could be allowed by right). Encourage public-private partnerships between City and developers. Infill Development Need to focus on infill development in the downtown. Streamlining permit processing for infill development in areas where infrastructure already exists. Change fee schedule to lower fees for infill housing. Infrastructure in infill areas is inadequate developers are burdened with fixing old infrastructure. An infill coordinator could assist infill projects. Environmental/Sustainability Housing needs to be built on smallest possible footprint to avoid premature conversion of agricultural land. Incorporate green building techniques into new development, to reduce energy consumption and save money. Foreclosures/Homeownership The City of Stockton is ground zero for the foreclosure crisis. Foreclosures are leading to blight and crime. Homeless shelters are seeing increased demand as a result of foreclosures. Investors (i.e., out-of-town owners) have taken over older neighborhoods, leading to neighborhood instability. It is easier for realtors to work with investors instead of first-time homebuyers. Could provide incentives for realtors to work with first-time homebuyers. Provide foreclosure counseling programs. Foreclosed properties are a potential source of affordable housing. The market should be able to take care of moderate-income sector, but instead has been serving only the needs of above moderate-income sector. Page 4-6 Background Report May 18, 2010

17 4. Housing Other Comments How will we house the next generation of residents (youth)? Need a variety of housing types and encourage creative housing solutions through modified development standards. Need creative solutions to solve permitting and processing issues. Not enough employment opportunities to provide stable incomes; need to improve the housing to jobs ratio to help stabilize the local economy. Need to create more job stability. Need to address the housing needs of young people so they can become independent. Development impact fees are high in Stockton. Need to make sure impact fees follow decreasing housing prices. Need to change the perception of the city. Need increased coordination between City departments such as Public Works, Municipal Utilities, and Fire Departments. Provide incentives for more balanced communities. Need programs for better property management of multi-family properties. SECTION 2: EXISTING NEEDS ASSESSMENT Major Findings Stockton is one of the fastest growing communities in California. Through the 2000s, the City s population grew at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent. As of 2008, the City had a population of 289,927. Stockton s population was slightly younger than the County and State average in The City had a higher percentage of residents under the age of 35 than San Joaquin County, and the median age in Stockton (30.2) was slightly lower than that of the County (31.8) and the State (34.7). Stockton s population was more ethnically and racially diverse than the County and State in White persons made up over 10 percent less of Stockton s population than in San Joaquin County and California. The most notable changes in the racial and ethnic composition of the City s population between 2000 and 2007 were the higher percentage increases in the Asian population and Hispanic population. The personal income gap between the City of Stockton and California is growing. In 1970, Stockton, California and the U.S. had about the same average personal income; May 18, 2010 Background Report Page 4-7

18 Stockton General Plan however, by the early 1980s, Stockton s average per-capita personal income had decreased compared to California and national averages. By 2006, the personal income gap between Stockton and California was four times greater ($12,354) than what it was in 1984 ($3,091). Stockton s household income distribution is more heavily concentrated in the lower end of the income spectrum than the County and State. In 2007, Stockton s median household income ($48,132) was slightly lower than that of the County ($52,470), and significantly lower than the State ($59,948). The overall unemployment trend in Stockton over the last eight years has followed the ups and downs of the County and State, except at a higher rate. The unemployment rate has increased since 2006, consistent with an overall decrease in the housing market. As of April 2009, 18.8 percent of Stockton residents were unemployed, slightly higher than the County (15.6 percent) and considerably higher than the statewide unemployment rate (11 percent). According to San Joaquin Council of Government (SJCOG) projections, Stockton s population will increase 11.2 percent from 268,270 in 2005 to 298,267 in 2010 and another 11.1 percent to 331,278 in Employment growth in Stockton is projected to occur at a lower rate than population growth, leading to a decrease in the jobs-housing ratio. Families have made up a larger share of the population in Stockton compared to San Joaquin County or California. In 2000, 71.5 percent of Stockton households were family households compared to 74.2 percent in the County and 68.6 percent in the State. By 2007, the percentage of family households in the City increased more significantly, and almost equaled that of the percentage of family households in the County (74.1 percent compared to 75.4 percent). Stockton had a relatively low rate of homeownership in 2007 (55 percent) compared to homeownership countywide (63 percent) and statewide (58 percent). The City s rate of homeownership has increased slightly since 2000, when it was approximately 52 percent. Stockton has a greater need for large housing units than the County and State. Stockton had a larger average household size, smaller housing units, and higher overcrowding rates than the County and State in At 65.0 percent of the total housing stock, single-family detached units in Stockton made up a much larger share of the total than in the State overall, where only 57.4 percent of all units are single-family detached. From 2000 to 2008, over 14,487 single-family detached units were built in Stockton, making up nearly 94 percent of all new units constructed. The rate of housing cost burden for lower-income households is slightly higher in Stockton than in San Joaquin County (60.3 percent) and about the same as in Page 4-8 Background Report May 18, 2010

19 4. Housing California (62.1 percent). This data points to the need for more affordable housing units in Stockton. Between 1998 and 2008, there was a significant boom and bust in local housing markets. Commonly referred to as the housing bubble, local markets exploded with construction and sales activity fueled largely by sub-prime loans for homeowners. From January 2002 to June 2006, the median home price in Stockton more than doubled, from $158,000 to $390,000, and then fell to around $113,500 by February This trend occurred throughout California and in the surrounding cities of San Joaquin County, yet Stockton was one of the hardest hit markets in the nation when homeowners defaulted on sub-prime loans and went into foreclosure. As of June 2008, 12.3 percent of homes in Stockton and 10.5 percent of homes in San Joaquin County were in foreclosure. Renting an average one-bedroom apartment at $850 per month (this includes $100 in monthly utility costs) requires a yearly income of $33,800. The average rent for a two-bedroom unit, the most common unit size in Stockton, necessitates an annual household income of $42,900 to cover the $950 per month in rent and $128 utility allowance. Preliminary results from a homeless count conducted in San Joaquin County in January 2009 counted 2,977 homeless persons in the County. The majority of individuals counted (2,815) were sheltered. A large percentage of the individuals counted were residing in Stockton. A household of three persons with an income of $16,550 in 2008 would qualify as an extremely low-income household in Stockton. In 2000, Stockton had a higher percentage (16.6 percent) of extremely low-income households than San Joaquin County (12.7 percent) and the State (12 percent). This information suggests that there is a need for affordable rental units for extremely low-income residents in Stockton. Introduction This section begins with a description of housing and demographic characteristics of Stockton. The section then discusses the existing housing needs of the City based on housing and demographic characteristics, and the housing needs of special population groups as defined in State law. Data for Stockton is presented, wherever possible, alongside data for San Joaquin County and California for comparison. This facilitates an understanding of the City s characteristics by illustrating how the City is similar to, or differs from, the County and State in various aspects related to demographic, employment, and housing characteristics and needs. Demographic and Employment Profile The purpose of this section is to establish baseline population, employment, and housing characteristics for Stockton. The main sources of the information in this section are the 2004 May 18, 2010 Background Report Page 4-9

20 Stockton General Plan City of Stockton Housing Element, 1990 U.S. Census, 2000 U.S. Census, the 2007 American Community Survey, the California Department of Finance (DOF), and the San Joaquin Council of Governments (SJCOG). 1 Other sources of information include the following: the California Employment Development Department (EDD); the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD); and local economic data (such as home sales prices, rents, and wages). Employment data for the Stockton Metropolitan Statistical Area, which covers the same geographic boundaries as San Joaquin County, is from EDD. Demographics Population Stockton is one of the fastest growing communities in California. Table 4-1 shows the longterm historic population trends for the City of Stockton. Since incorporating in 1850, Stockton has been a rapidly growing city. The city experienced its highest average annual growth rate (AAGR) between 1980 and 1990 when the population grew at an AAGR of 3.6 percent. The population growth slowed significantly between 1990 and 2000, and then increased again through the 2000s. Stockton s population was 289,927 as of TABLE 4-1 HISTORICAL POPULATION CHANGE Stockton 1920 to 2008 Year Population Change AAGR , ,963 7, % ,714 6, % ,853 16, % ,321 15, % ,963 23, % ,283 38, % ,943 62, % ,771 32, % ,927 46, % Note: AAGR for calculated for 7.75-year period (April 1, 2000 to Jan. 1, 2008). It should be noted that the City s boundaries change over time and population growth reflects changes in the City overall area. Source: DOF, Table 2a Historical Census Populations of California State, Counties, Cities, Places, and Towns 1 The decennial census data is based on a survey of the entire U.S. population, with about one person in six answering a more detailed questionnaire. The ACS data is based on a much smaller survey size, with approximately 3 million people answering the survey each year. This smaller sample size results in a lower level of accuracy than the decennial census. Because of the variability of the data sources, not all information is consistently available during the same time period, and the margin of error for data also varies. The most recently available data by source was always used, and the source data and source year are provided within the text and charts of this document. Page 4-10 Background Report May 18, 2010

21 4. Housing Table 4-2 shows Stockton s growth rate relative to San Joaquin County and the State of California. From 1990 to 2000, both the City of Stockton and San Joaquin County grew at a faster rate than the state average, with 1.95 percent and 1.47 percent AAGR, respectively, versus 1.30 for all of California. While the AAGR increased statewide to 1.51 percent, the rate of growth in both the City and County experienced a larger increase to 2.34 percent and 2.74 percent, respectively. TABLE 4-2 POPULATION CHANGE Stockton, San Joaquin County, and California 1990 to 2008 Stockton San Joaquin County California Population 210, , , , , ,660 29,758,213 33,873,086 38,049,462 Growth from Previous Period - 32,828 46,156-75, ,431-4,114,873 4,176,376 AAGR from Previous Period % 2.34% % 2.74% % 1.51% Sources: California Department of Finance 2008, 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census Age Table 4-3 shows the distribution of Stockton s population by age from 1990 to The bulk of the 2007 population (57 percent) is under the age of 40, and the median age in Stockton is 30.2 years, which is lower than the County (31.8 years) and the State (34.7 years). As shown in the table, the share of persons between 0-4 and years of age declined from 1990 to 2007, while all other age groups remained stable or increased in their share of the overall population. Since 1990, persons aged 45 to 54 have been the fastest growing age group in the City. This group increased more than 80 percent in the past 17 years, nearly twice the rate of overall population growth (46 percent) during the same time period. If most residents who are now in their 40s and 50s remain in the City over the next 20 years, the senior population will continue to increase and eventually become a larger proportion of the total population in Stockton. Race and Ethnicity Table 4-4 summarizes data related to the race and ethnicity of residents of Stockton, San Joaquin County, and California in 2000 and Compared to the County and State, Stockton is more racially and ethnically diverse. In 2007, approximately 55% of the City s population was non-white, compared to 45% non-white in the County or 40% in the State. The City has a similar proportion of persons identifying as Hispanic or Latino as the County and State. The most notable changes in the racial and ethnic composition of the City s population between 2000 and 2007 were the higher increases in the Asian and Hispanic populations. There was a decrease in the American Indian and Alaska Native population in the same time period, while populations percentages of Whites, Blacks/African Americans, and Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders increased slightly. May 18, 2010 Background Report Page 4-11

22 Stockton General Plan Age Group Stockton Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent TABLE 4-3 AGE CHARACTERISTICS Stockton 1990 and 2000 San Joaquin County Percent Change Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Percent Change 0 to 4 20, % 20, % 25, % 24% 42, % 44, % 55, % 32.0% 5 to 14 37, % 45, % 46, % 25% 79, % 100, % 104, % 31.5% 15 to 19 16, % 21, % 25, % 60% 34, % 47, % 56, % 61.6% 20 to 24 17, % 18, % 22, % 35% 35, % 37, % 49, % 38.7% 25 to 34 34, % 33, % 47, % 37% 83, % 75, % 100, % 21.0% 35 to 44 30, % 33, % 39, % 28% 71, % 86, % 91, % 28.1% 45 to 54 18, % 28, % 33, % 84% 44, % 68, % 86, % 94.2% 55 to 64 14, % 17, % 23, % 66% 35, % 41, % 59, % 67.3% 65 to 74 12, % 12, % 14, % 14% 31, % 30, % 34, % 8.8% 75 and over 9, % 12, % 15, % 67% 22, % 29, % 32, % 46.3% TOTAL 201, % 243, % 295, % 46% 480, % 563, % 670, % 39.6% Source: 2000 U.S. Census; 2007 American Community Survey Page 4-12 Background Report May 18, 2010

23 4. Housing TABLE 4-4 POPULATION BREAKDOWN BY RACE AND ETHNICITY Stockton, San Joaquin County, and California 2007 Racial/Ethnic Category Stockton 2000 Stockton 2007 San Joaquin County 2007 California 2007 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent White (non- Hispanic) 105, % 125, % 368, % 22,026, % Black or African American 27, % 36, % 51, % 2,263, % American Indian and Alaska Native 2, % 2, % 5, % 266, % Asian 48, % 63, % 91, % 4,511, % Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific % % 3, % 126, % Islander Other 42, % 52, % 116, % 6,096, % TOTAL ONE RACE 227, % 280, % 636, % 35,290, % Two or more Races 16, % 14, % 34, % 1,262, % TOTAL POPULATION 243, % 295, % 670, % 36,553, % Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 79, % 108, % 244, % 13,220, % Source: 2000 U.S. Census 2000; 2007 American Community Survey Income and Employment Local demand for housing is significantly impacted by income, employment characteristics, and regional job growth. To effectively address the housing and jobs relationship, an understanding of local salary and job profiles is needed. This section analyzes personal income, household income, and employment characteristics for San Joaquin County and the City of Stockton, when available. Personal Income Figure 4-1 shows the change in average per capita income for the Stockton MSA, California, and the U.S. from 1970 through In 1970, Stockton, California and the U.S. had about the same average personal income. However, by the early 1980s, Stockton s average percapita personal income had decreased compared to California and national averages. From 1984 to 2006, Stockton s per-capita personal income rose 52.7 percent to only $27,272 compared to the State of California, which rose approximately 59.6 percent to $39,629. By 2006, the personal income gap between Stockton and California was four times greater ($12,354) than what it was in 1984 ($3,091). May 18, 2010 Background Report Page 4-13

24 Stockton General Plan FIGURE 4-1 PERSONAL INCOME Stockton 1970 to 2006 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2008 Household Income Household incomes in Stockton are generally lower than incomes in the San Joaquin County or State. The most significant income disparities when comparing Stockton with the County or State occur at either end of the income spectrum. For example, approximately 36 percent of Stockton households earned less than $30,000 in 2007, compared to 32 percent in County households or 29 percent of State households. Households earning $75,000 or greater consisted of only 29 percent of all Stockton households, but accounted for approximately 34 percent of San Joaquin County households and almost 40 percent of all California households. TABLE 4-5 HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION Stockton, San Joaquin County, and California 1999 and 2007 Stockton 1999 Stockton 2007 San Joaquin County 2007 California 2007 Income Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Under $15,000 16, % 11, % 23, % 1,273, % $15,000-$24,999 11, % 9, % 20, % 1,179, % $25,000-$34,999 10, % 11, % 23, % 1,140, % $35,000-$49,999 12, % 14, % 32, % 1,586, % $50,000-$74,999 13, % % 37, % 2,195, % $75,000-$99,999 6, % 10, % 25, % 1,548, % $100,000-$149,000 4, % 10, % 29, % 1,786, % $150,000 or more 2, % 5, % 16, % 1,491, % Total Households 78, % 89, % 207, % 12,200, % Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 2007 American Community Survey Page 4-14 Background Report May 18, 2010

25 4. Housing Table 4-6 shows the median household and median family incomes in 1999 and 2007 for Stockton, San Joaquin County, and California. In 2007, Stockton s median household income ($48,132) was slightly lower than that of the County ($52,470), and significantly lower than that of California ($59,948). Median family incomes followed the same pattern, but were slightly higher for the City, County, and the State. TABLE 4-6 MEDIAN INCOME Stockton, San Joaquin County, and California 2000 Percent Stockton San Joaquin County Difference (City and County) California Median Household Income Percent Difference (City and State) 2000 $ 35,453 41, % $ 47, % 2007 $ 48,132 52, % $ 59, % Median Family Income 2000 $ 40,434 46, % $ 53, % 2007 $ 51,632 58, % $ 67, % Source: 2000 U.S. Census; 2007 American Community Survey Employment The Employment Development Department (EDD) estimates the total labor force of cities and counties in California; however, the EDD does not break down employment by industry at the city level. Table 4-7 shows the employment and unemployment rates along with industry employment by major classification for the Stockton Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and California for 2000 and The number of jobs that the EDD reports for civilian employment differs from the number of jobs reported for total industry employment (also known as wage and salary employment). Civilian labor force counts the number of working people by where they live. This includes business owners, the self-employed, unpaid family workers, private household workers, and wage and salary workers. A person with more than one job is only counted once. Total Industry Employment counts the number of jobs by the place of work. This does not include business owners, the self-employed, unpaid family workers, or private household workers. If someone holds more than one job, they may be counted more than once. The industry employment indicates the number of jobs within a given jurisdiction. May 18, 2010 Background Report Page 4-15

26 Stockton General Plan Jobs by Place of Residence TABLE 4-7 EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY Stockton MSA and California 2000 and 2008 Stockton MSA California Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Civilian Employment 240, % 266, % 16,024, % 17,059, % Civilian Unemployment 18, % 31, % 833, % 1,332, % Civilian Labor Force Total 258, % 297, % 16,857, % 18,391, % Jobs by Place of Employment Natural Resources and Mining % % 26, % 28, % Construction 11, % 11, % 733, % 785, % Manufacturing 24, % 21, % 1,852, % 1,425, % Wholesale Trade 6, % 10, % 646, % 706, % Retail Trade 23, % 25, % 1,563, % 1,642, % Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities 11, % 14, % 518, % 505, % Information 3, % 2, % 576, % 474, % Financial Activities 8, % 9, % 806, % 849, % Professional and Business Services 16, % 17, % 2,221, % 2,244, % Educational and Health Services 22, % 28, % 1,401, % 1,725, % Leisure and Hospitality 14, % 17, % 1,335, % 1,570, % Other Services 5, % 7, % 487, % 515, % Government 37, % 40, % 2,318, % 2,519, % Total Farm 16, % 14, % 408, % 390, % Total Nonfarm 185, % 206, % 14,488, % 14,994, % Total, All Industries 202, % 221, % 14,896, % 15,384, % Note: The Stockton MSA covers the entire San Joaquin County Source: California Employment Development Department, Employment by Industry Data, 2000 and 2008 The most significant employment contributors in the Stockton MSA include government, retail services, and education and health services jobs. While most industries either grew or remained stable between 2000 and 2008, the manufacturing, information, and farming industries lost jobs during the same timeframe. Employment in agriculture has historically been one of the primary sources of jobs in the Stockton area; however, there has been a dramatic decline in agricultural jobs over the past few decades with approximately 16,700 jobs or just eight percent of total jobs in 2000 and 14,900 jobs or seven percent in The unemployment rate in Stockton has increased in recent years, following a statewide trend. Figure 4-2 illustrates unemployment rates in Stockton, San Joaquin County, and California from 2000 to Since 2000, the City s unemployment rate has been consistently higher than the County and State averages. The unemployment rate has increased since 2006, consistent with an overall decrease in the housing market. Some of this unemployment may be attributed to layoffs in the construction industry as housing starts have nearly come to a stop in Stockton and throughout much of California. As of April 2009, 18.8 percent of Stockton residents were unemployed, slightly higher than the County (15.6 percent) and considerably higher than the statewide unemployment rate (11 percent). The Page 4-16 Background Report May 18, 2010

27 4. Housing overall unemployment trends in Stockton over the last 8 years have generally followed the ups and downs of the County and State, except at a higher rate. Unemployment has continued to drastically increase in Stockton since % FIGURE 4-2 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Stockton, San Joaquin County, and Californiaa 2000 to % Unemployment Rate 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% California 5.0% 5.4% 6..7% 6.8% 6.2% 5.4% San Joaquin County 7.0% 7.5% 8..9% 9.2% 8.8% 7.9% Stockton 8.5% 9.2% 10.8% 11.2% 10.7% 9.7% Source: California Employment Development Department, September % 5.4% 6.8% 7.5% 8.2% 10.2% 9.1% 10.0% 12.4% Population and Employment Projections The San Joaquin Council of Governments ( SJCOG) produces projections of population and employment for the cities in San Joaquin County, including the City of Stockton. SJCOG s most recent projections, released in 2004, cover the period from 2005 to Table 4-8 shows the Censuss population and employment estimates in 2000 and the projected population and number of employees according to SJCOG for 2005 through As shown in the table, Stockton s population is projected to increase 23.5 percent from 268,270 in 2005 to 331,278 in By 2030, the City s population is projected to be 438,770, whichh is a 38.9 percent increase from Employment growth in Stockton is projected to occur at a lower rate than population growth. The number of jobs is projected to increase 9.6 percent from 92,122 jobs in 2005 to 101,001 in While the number of jobs and population is projected to increase, the rate of population growth is projected to exceed job growth. Therefore, the ratio of jobs per capita is projected to decrease from 0.36 jobs per person estimated in 2000 to 0.27 jobs per person estimated in May 18, 2010 Background Report Page 4-17

28 Stockton General Plan Year TABLE 4-8 POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS Stockton 2000 to 2030 Population Employment Jobs/ Population Persons AAGR Jobs AAGR Ratio , , , % 92, % , % 95, % , % 101, % , % 105, % , % 111, % , % 116, % 0.27 Source: San Joaquin Council of Governments. Population, Employment, & Housing Unit Projections, 2004 Household Characteristics and Housing Supply The section provides an analysis of household characteristics and housing supply. The first section analyzes household characteristics, such as household population, composition, size, tenure, and overcrowding. The second section analyzes the city s housing inventory and supply, including a discussion of vacant units. The discussion of housing stock in Stockton uses data from the 2000 Census Summary File 3 (SF3), whereas the housing and population information shown in other sections of this document are based primarily on Summary File 1 (SF1). The totals from the two sources can vary, because SF3 is based on a sample, whereas SF1 is based on a complete count. Household Characteristics The first part of this section analyzes household characteristics including household population, tenure, and household composition. Household Population Household population is an important measure for establishing the number of persons residing in private households. Persons in institutional or group quarters are not included in the count of household population. According to the California Department of Finance, as of 2008, Stockton had a total household population of 282,629 with 4,560 people (i.e., less than 2 percent) living in group quarters. With 91,790 households, the City had an average of about three persons per household. Household Composition The U.S. Census divides households into two different categories, depending on their composition: family and non-family. Family households are those consisting of two or more related persons living together. Non-family households include persons who live alone or in groups composed of unrelated individuals. As shown in Table 4-9, families have made up a Page 4-18 Background Report May 18, 2010