Utilities Company Presentation. Luke MacAdam
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1 Utilities Company Presentation Luke MacAdam
2 Agenda Sector Recap Review Current Holding Review Alternative Suggestions Financial Analysis & Valuations Recommendation Questions & Class Vote 2
3 Sector Presentation Recap Recommend Underweighting Utilities Compared to S&P 500 Defensive Sector U.S. in Mid-Business Cycle Weak Fundamentals Fed s Rate-Tightening Shifting U.S. Regulatory Landscape 3
4 S&P 500 Sector Weightings Sector, Weight % (Difference from SIM Weight) Energy, 7.78% (+0.41%) Consumer Staples, 9.43% (+1.04%) Telecom, 2.27% Materials, (-0.61%) 3.13% Utilities, 2.82% (+0.88%) (-0.18%) Information Technology, 19.63% (-1.16%) Industrials, 10.09% (+0.68%) Consumer Discretionary, 12.80% (+0.19%) Health Care, 15.42% (-0.74%) Financials, 16.63% (-1.13%) Current Utility Holding: The AES Corporation Industry: Electric Utilities Shares Owned: 22,000 SIM Weight: 3.00% 4
5 Company Overview Global power company headquartered out of Arlington, Virginia Provide energy to customers from 18 countries on 4 continents; only 24% of contributions are from U.S. Two main lines of business: power generation, power distribution Generation capacity of 35 GW w/ additional 7,000 MW under construction Recognized as world leader in lithium ion batteries for energy storage Ticker AES Operating Revenues $17.1B Generating Capacity 35 GW Employees 18.5K 52 Week High $ Week Low $11.53 Current Price $12.79 Market Cap 8.73B Beta
6 Recent Changes Exited 10 markets where growth was limited since September 2011 Involved in a share buyback program the past few years, reducing shares outstanding from 778 million in 2011 to 682 million currently Oil, Diesel, PET Coke 5% Fuel Types Dividends have increased from $0.05/quarter to $0.10/quarter starting in 2015 to further entice investing Renewables 23% Coal 38% Continued expansion in emerging markets overseas Gas 34% 6
7 S&P 500 Utilities Sector Components 7
8 P/E Below Industry Average Source: E*TRADE Financial Corporation (July 22, 2015) 8
9 P/S Below Industry Average Source: E*TRADE Financial Corporation (July 22, 2015) 9
10 Profit Margin Below Industry Average Source: E*TRADE Financial Corporation (July 22, 2015) 10
11 Price/Cash Flow Below Industry Average Source: E*TRADE Financial Corporation (July 22, 2015) 11
12 Underperformed S&P 500 Last 52 Weeks Source: E*TRADE Financial Corporation (July 22, 2015) 12
13 Commonalities: Components of S&P 500 Utilities Sector Price to Earnings (TTM) below Industry Average Price to Sales (TTM) below Industry Average Price to Cash Flow (TTM) below Industry Average Profit Margin (TTM) below Industry Average Underperformed the S&P 500 Last 52 Weeks Source: E*TRADE Financial Corporation (July 22, 2015) 13
14 Company Overview Headquartered out of Chicago, Illinois Does business in 48 states, Washington D.C. and Canada (Constellation) Participates in every stage of energy delivery: generation, transmission, distribution Largest owner and operator of nuclear power plants in the U.S. Operates regulated utilities in IL (ComEd), PA (PECO), MD (BGE) Ticker EXC Operating Revenues $27.4B Generating Capacity 32 GW Employees 29K 52 Week High $ Week Low $30.66 Current Price $30.91 Market Cap 26.62B Beta
15 Recent Changes Heavily involved in expansion by M&A activity: Merged with Constellation Energy Group in 2012, Merger with Pepco Holdings ongoing Fuel Types Continues expansion of nuclear and renewable energy generation Using new technologies to help create competitive advantage (e.g. all regulated utilities subsidiaries installing smart meters) Renewables 8% Gas 24% Oil 7% Coal 6% Nuclear 55% 15
16 Company Overview Headquartered out of New Orleans, Louisiana Operates in two segments: utilities & wholesale commodities (non-utility nuclear) Does utilities business in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas Second largest nuclear power generator in the U.S. behind Exelon Ticker ETR Operating Revenues $12.5B Generating Capacity 30 GW Employees 13K 52 Week High $ Week Low $92.02 Current Price $69.21 Market Cap 12.42B Beta
17 Recent Changes Purchased 6 nuclear plants from when most investors did not believe in the value of nuclear plants Nuclear Vermont Yankee plant closes at the end of 2014 due to lack of public support for nuclear energy New York nuclear plant faces relicensing and could have same fate as Vermont plant Renewables 0.6% Nuclear 34.9% Fuel Types Coal 8.8% Gas/Oil 55.7% 17
18 Performance Over Last Year S&P 500 Dow Jones Utility Avg +5.09% -0.13% -3.26% -9.35% % 18
19 Alternatives Comparison Variables S&P 500 Utilities Index P/E 10.47x 12.85x 12.09x 16.08x P/S 0.54x 0.92x 1.03x 1.55x P/B 2.23x 1.16x 1.24x 1.63x P/CF 3.37x 4.61x 3.37x 6.54x ROE 23.59% 9.70% 8.34% 9.99% ROA 2.45% 2.67% 1.90% 2.72% Debt to Assets 53.69x 26.01x 30.28x 35.62x Dividend Yield 2.35% 4.00% 4.74% 3.79% BEst Div. Yld. 3.21% 4.00% 4.77% 3.89% Source: Bloomberg (July 28, 2015) 19
20 Relative Valuation to S&P Utilities Index AES EXC ETR 0 AES EXC ETR 0 AES EXC ETR 0 AES EXC ETR P/E P/B P/S P/EBIDTA The rectangles show the high, median, and low value of multiples compared to S&P 500 Utilities Index over the past 10 years. Red diamonds show current multiples. Data current as of 7/27/15 20
21 Financial Analysis Catalysts Share buybacks boosting EPS, shows faith from AES Focusing on emerging overseas markets for expansion, lots of room for growth Increasing dividend ($0.40/share/year) Weather in Brazil normalizing Energy storage solution can create unique future opportunity Risks Expansion to emerging markets lead to increased economical & political uncertainty Foreign currency fluctuations always a risk Dayton Power & Light in unregulated market - customers have no switching costs Significant ongoing development, tying up capital 21
22 Discounted Cash Flow Model 22
23 Financial Analysis Catalysts Nuclear plants are low cost, with little emissions and can run during all seasons With only a small portion of assets in fossil fuels, increased regulations help Exelon Acquisition of Constellation Energy helps diversify outside of Eastern/Midwest markets Risks Future projects are regulated, limiting upside Nuclear plants require ongoing political endorsing to reduce public opposition Reduced dividend in
24 Discounted Cash Flow Model 24
25 Financial Analysis Catalysts Nuclear plants are low cost, with little emissions and can run during all seasons Industrial boom in Mississippi Delta region expected to continue at 6.2% earnings growth over next 5 years Attractive dividend Stronger balance sheet Risks Nuclear plants require ongoing political endorsing to reduce public opposition Arkansas regulatory framework remains a challenge, ROE below industry average Not well diversified as regulated utilities = 90% of earnings Severe weather can have huge impact on cash flows 25
26 Discounted Cash Flow Model 26
27 Valuation Comparison Projections Upside/Downside 23.6% 16.2% -5.2% Future Div. Yield 3.2% 4.0% 4.8% Total Upside 26.8% 20.2% -0.4% Recommendation BUY BUY HOLD Recommendation: Retain AES, however reduce holding 28 bps from 3.00% to 2.72% due to economic climate 27
28 Questions? 28
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