Future domes+c hea+ng systems and their poten+al role in integra+ng variable renewable energy

Transcription

1 Future domes+c hea+ng systems and their poten+al role in integra+ng variable renewable energy Steve Heinen Workshop on ICT Enabling Thermal Energy Flexibility in Integrated Energy Systems KIER, Daejeon, 21 st October 2015

2 2 SETTING THE SCENE Domes+c Heat Technology

3 We need to talk about heat... 3 World OECD Note: Heat demand (es+mated 2%) covered by electricity is not included in these figures Source: IEA (2012), Policies for renewable heat An integrated approach

4 4 European heat decarbonisa6on strategy in the residen6al sector, simplified Decarbonise supply 2. Insulate 3. Electrify using efficient HPs

5 Heat demand in the UK, New market for electricity u+li+es? Increased peak load? Decreased asset u+lisa+on? Source: Robert Sansom (Imperial College), Winter Peak Heat Demand

6 Heat pump efficiency 6 COP Carnot Q = W Sink = T Sink TSink T Source Underperformance during cold temperature spells? Low- temp heat distribu+on system? Deep renova+ons... Source: Munuera et al. (2013), The role of energy efficiency in decarbonising heat via electrifica+on

7 Heat pump investment cost barrier 7 Are consumers ra+onal enough invest in a system that delivers long- term savings? Source: ETSAP, Delta E&E

8 Where are the system interac6ons? 8 1. Decarbonise supply 2. Insulate 3. Electrify using efficient HPs

9 9 Planning and opera6ons is a dynamic process in an integrated energy system Peak load management Renewables balancing >80% of today s buildings skll standing in 2050 Upfront cost Heat distribukon system compakbility

10 Hybrid heaters an overlooked alterna6ve? 10 Hybrid heaters are composed of 2 appliances Enabled by ICT, hybrids can switch between those appliances during opera+on depending on market condi+ons. Different combina+ons feasible Gas boiler resistance heater (HP- R) Heat pump - Gas boiler (B- HP) Heat pump resistance heater (HP- R) à Can hybrid heakng deploying provide system- wide planning benefits?

11 Hybrid heaters are available commercially since about Japan USA

12 12 QUANTIFYING THE SYSTEM BENEFITS OF DEPLOYING DIFFERENT DOMESTIC HEATING TECHNOLOGIES

13 Power- gas- heat system 13 Model One stage planning Hourly resolu+on Linear Test System Ireland Planning horizon: 2030 Wind capacity: 6000 MW (40% energy) Heaters installed in 25% of Irish households For different hea+ng technologies, model will determine least- cost solu+on by determining Capaci+es (MW) for power genera+on, heater and thermal storage Energy dispatch (MWh) for power genera+on, heaters and thermal storage

14 14 Heat load for 25% of Irish households compared to TOTAL elec. load Source: Eirgrid (2014), CER (2011) New market for electricity u+li+es? Increased peak load? Decreased asset u+lisa+on?

15 Economic assessment cost breakdown 15 Compared to gas boiler deployement

16 Economic assessment cost breakdown 16 Compared to gas boiler deployement

17 Economic assessment cost breakdown 17 Compared to gas boiler deployement

18 18 Electricity load dura6on curve

19 19 HP- B opera6on during low wind week

20 20 Strategic assessment

21 Overall assessment 21 Hybrid heaters can provide planning benefits by integra+ng gas, electricity and heat without district hea+ng network, only through intelligent integra+on of individual technologies. HP- B system B- R system HP- R system Least- cost system Heater investment savings (smaller HP) Power investment (lower electric peak) and fuel savings (efficient HP) Large gas and CO2 savings compared to gas boiler, small increase in gas and CO2 emissions compared to HP Reduced wind curtailment, but increased coal usage Heater investment reduc+on Small power system benefits

22 Thank you for your asen6on 22 Ques+ons and discussion Acknowledgements My supervisor Mark O Malley and the UCD Energy Ins+tute Support by the Fonds Na+onal de la Recherche, Luxembourg (Project Reference )

23 Open ques6ons 23 System benefits of having a porlolio of different hea+ng technologies deployed Planning risk mi+ga+on poten+al of hybrid heaters Power system adequacy and reliability with different heaters deployed Manage wind forecast uncertainty with different heaters

24 Can hybrids reconcile different objec6ves and stakeholders? 24 Maintain access to storage capacity and flexibility of gas network? Decarbonise residen+al heat through electrifica+on with renewables while minimising genera+on expansion? Provide the consumer with a low- carbon alterna+ve to heat pumps?