Homeland Security Highlights Spring 2015

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1 Criminals Expanding into the Cyber World With the increase in the capability and availability of technology, criminals are now increasing the number and sophistication of cybercrimes, in conjunction with or instead of typical crimes. The shift is also due to the fact that the Internet continues to expand, while lacking sufficient safe-guards for the protection of users. Three main reasons for the increase in cybercrimes being committed is an abundance of information available on the Internet, the opportunities for criminals to commit cybercrimes, and society s increased reliance on technology. The Internet has given humans information at their fingertips, which has come with a cost. With relative ease, a person by using the Internet, can acquire the necessary hacking tools, develop the necessary hacking skills, and survey targets to hack. Also, detailed instructions on how to commit a specific cybercrime can be found on the Internet. Moreover, numerous tutorials on how to computer hack are readily available on the Internet. The exploding capability and availability of the Internet certainly has an up and down side. The process of criminals being paid to do certain crimes has moved into the cyber world. A person can pay a hacker to hack into a specific business or person s computer to get information. This has evolved into computer geeks working for companies all over the world who are willing and able to hack. In addition, online markets allow the acquisition, for a fee, of stolen credit card numbers to be used for legitimate purchases. A person can steal credit card numbers or bank account information to make these purchases. Furthermore, individuals can steal a victim s identity and, with the stolen personal data, fraudulently use that data for such things as theft of medical insurance benefits or bogus credit card accounts. Society is increasingly storing vast amounts of information on computers, as well as, expanding its heavy reliance on technology. With increasing storage capability and decreasing storage costs, the amount of data storage on computers is increasing. Also, because of the ease and speed of access, and the increasingly sophisticated capability of computers for information handling and storage, more and more data is being stored on computers. Stores, businesses, major corporations, and the government all continue to increase their use of information technology. The major downside of the technological advancements is the fact that highly sensitive information that is stored on computers can be easily hacked. Average citizens are using the Internet for online banking and paying bills; something the Internet was not originally designed to do. This, of course, increases the chances of credit card and identity threat. People believe that the virus protection that they pay for protects them, which causes them to use their computer carelessly, but in reality their information is not truly protected. Clearly, the Internet is becoming increasingly the new crime scene for criminals. Information availability, financial gain from committing cybercrimes, and a society depending on technology, all make cybercrimes an extremely serious threat. Governments and corporations will continue to try to keep up with the rapidly-changing technology and figure out how to better secure the Internet. Moreover, the implementation of new strategies and policies for dealing with cyber and Internet security are required to deal with this threat. Author: Rose Garrison 1

2 The Crisis in Yemen: America s Role Over the past several months the political, social, and economic situation of Yemen has escalated to a dangerous tipping point. Now that Yemen s government has been dissolved and the nation s capital is currently under militant Houthi control, both the United States and the international community are faced with a crisis that can affect the entire Middle East. In order for the United States to restore peace and order, the United States should lead an international effort to create a legitimate and stable government, reassert itself diplomatically in Yemen, and actively pursue Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and other radical Islamic extremist militants in the area. The first action that is needed in order to bring stability to Yemen is the involvement of the US and the international community. Since 2011 Yemen has been undergoing a political transition process observed by the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) and the UN. However since the resignations of the president and prime minister on January 22, the US, the UN, the EU, and the Arab league have all condemned the Houthi s dismissal of the government; now action is needed from these international organizations to salvage what is left of Yemen before a militant regime becomes entrenched. In addition to international support, the United States needs to reassert itself into Yemen both physically and diplomatically. On February 11 the United States hastily evacuated its embassy in Sanaa, leaving behind equipment, intelligence, and an absence of US diplomatic security. Now the US should go back into Yemen, with better security for its ambassadors along with representatives of other nations, and begin diplomatically pressuring the Houthi s into adhering to international ordinances and policy created by the UN concerning Yemen, as completely removing the Houthi s from power may now be difficult, the US can pressure them to returning to the transitional government. Finally, the United States should actively pursue and attack AQAP s strongholds in Yemen as well as other extremist groups in the area. The Yemeni military prior to the Houthi rebellion struggled to keep AQAP at bay and since then the majority of the fighting against AQAP has been left to the local tribes. Without the presence of a national government AQAP would gain from the security vacuum in southern provinces; Yemen is already a prime location for terrorist recruitment and training, and in today s time where multiple terrorist groups control territory across the world the United States must do all it can in preventing the rise of more radical Islamic extremist. Historically, Yemen has been a major security concern for Washington. The current conflict continues to be a major security problem, particularly after the fall of the Yemeni government and the absence of American diplomatic presence. The US must now lead an international effort to create a stable government, resume diplomatic relations, and actively pursue AQAP and other terrorist organizations in Yemen. The failure of the international community to end the conflict in Yemen will undoubtedly set the stage for Yemen becoming a base for extremism and radicalism that would certainly pose a threat to regional and international security. Author: Dallas Kivett 2

3 Ukraine s Increasing Dependence on the West As Ukraine s conflict with Russia continues, Ukraine is also facing a financial crisis, pushing the nation into further dependence on the west. With the failure of the economy, the threat of natural gas cutoff, and the growing public dissatisfaction with the security crisis in Eastern Ukraine, Kiev has no choice but to accept help from the international community. Ukraine s economy is on a steady decline despite efforts to shore up funds through raising interest rates and working with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Ukrainian Hryvnia has recently fallen an estimated 30 percent against the U.S. dollar and Ukraine only has enough reserves to sustain imports for another five weeks. The economic crisis is affecting the Ukrainian citizens with consumer price inflation reaching almost 25 percent in 2014 and expecting to reach up to 18 percent in Along with planned cuts in social spending and increases in energy prices, Ukraine is counting on a $15 billion bailout from the international community, $2 billion of which is proposed to come from the United States. Ukraine is also facing a possible natural gas cutoff when a contract with Russia expires in March. Currently Ukraine is importing gas through reverse flows from elsewhere in Europe and since September has been receiving one billion cubic meters of natural gas monthly from Slovakia. In 2014 Ukraine lost control of Donbas, their main source for hard coal, and has since been importing coal from Australia. The nation has been working on deals with the World Bank and the European Investment Bank to finance the diversification of Ukraine s energy resources, while Shell and Chevron have been working toward producing shale gas in Western Ukraine. Recently the Ukrainian population has become increasingly discontent with the Ukrainian leadership s handling of the crisis in eastern Ukraine. Protestors have called for the dismissal of top defense officials and the imposition of martial law. As Ukraine continually fails to improve the conditions on the front lines or to push back pro-russian rebels, Ukrainians are becoming more and more frustrated with the seemingly lack of support from the West. It is expected that as Ukraine s economic dependence on international aid increases, Western influence in compromising with Russia will rise, while Ukraine s reliance on Russia s natural resources increases Russia s bargaining power with Kiev. We predict that the political and military conflict in Ukraine will continue. Ukraine s dependence on the international community, combined with the fact that a good percent of the nation is politically and culturally aligned with Russia would make it impossible for Ukraine to end the conflict on their own terms. In order to end the conflict the international community needs to take a firm stance on what it is they want to achieve and engage in diplomatic negotiations with Russia and Ukraine in order to reach their goal, rather than just providing moral support and imposing weak sanctions against Russia. Author: Stormi Noll 3

4 Yemen: A Wicked Problem Set The Department of Homeland Security monitors multiple countries within the Middle East who present a strategic threat to the US or openly support jihadist threats. Yemen is one such country, and presents several, dynamic regional issues. As the US Embassy officially closes in Yemen, the al-houthis expand their territorial control, and Saudi potentially supports a coalition linked to jihadist movements, the future of Yemeni politics evolves toward increased violence and chaos that may require UN involvement. The US Embassy in Yemen closed on February 11, 2015, as all staff members and military personnel left the country. The Obama administration presents numerous explanations for their decision to close the embassy, the primary reason cited as an uncertain security situation in Sanaa. However, the order was officially given after the al-houthis forced parliament to dissolve and established their own legislative instruments, including a five-member presidential council and a 551-member transitional national council. The US Embassy in Yemen has remained open during past violent and chaotic situations, leading analysts to assume that the reason for withdrawal was political the US refuses to recognize the al-houthis regime as legitimate. Other countries, such as Great Britain and France, followed America s lead and closed their embassies within the region. The al-houthi regime continues to advance their territorial gain and expand their political control. The movement associates with a religious sect in north Yemen and progresses southward, spreading their strategic goals and propaganda. In January 2015, they kidnapped chief of staff Mubarak to force the president to support their reorganization of Yemen into two regions north and south. With the resignation of the government and closure of international embassies, the al- Houthis fully established two separate councils to replace the former government and implement their strategic goals. The movement has recently expanded into the Bayda province and mobilizes military forces to move into the Marib province and capture their energy fields. Saudi Arabia allegedly supports a coalition of tribal leaders in Marib that may be linked to jihadist activity in the region. The coalition opposes al-houthi legislature and presence in Yemen and may declare their independence. These united tribes are linked to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and have fought against the Southern secessionist movement and other Islamic factions. Saudi support for the tribes highlights the conflict of security interests in the region between Saudi Arabia and the US. The closure of international embassies, expansion of al-houthi political rule, and Saudi interest in the region all are part of the current chaotic period within Yemen. It is anticipated that international support will withdrawal as the political situation declines; however, efforts to find a non-military solution will continue. We expect that the al-houthis will advance their territory in Yemen, possibly fighting with separatist movements and al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula both located in southern Yemen. The Saudi supported coalition of tribal leaders will likely attempt to declare their independence, creating more violence between competing interests within the region. The international community must continue discussing solutions to prevent al-houthi advancement, re-implement the Yemeni government, and restrict fighting among regional factions. Author: Lauren Parker 4

5 Methamphetamine: The Growing Threat from Clandestine Labs With a 2012 National Survey on Drug Use and Health reporting an approximately 1.2 million Americans having used methamphetamine within the past year, the abuse from usage of this drug has reportedly cost the nation an estimated $23.4 billion annually. Production, availability and quality, and the lack of structured and enforced regulation on precursor chemicals used by illicit clandestine labs within as well as outside of the U.S., specifically in Mexico, has only fueled a growing demand for this drug among addicts. Seizures of clandestine methamphetamine labs have more than doubled nationwide since However the production and size of these labs within the United States have become noticeably smaller as they compete with the growing development of Mexican-based super labs, which has fueled the increase of methamphetamine traffic and availability throughout the United States. The ability for Mexican super labs to mass produce tons more methamphetamine than mom and pop labs has caused for a dramatic price drop in the sale of the drug while keeping, if not raising, the purity level of previous supplies. The purity level and the price the narcotic, whether methamphetamine or not, have always been closely correlated. Traditionally, if the purity of the methamphetamine is higher, the higher the cost. With Mexican super labs flooding the streets with thousands of pounds of quick produced, high grade methamphetamine, supply and demand has made this drug easily available and at a low cost. With seizures by law enforcement along the Southwest border on a 500 percent increase between the years 2008 and 2013, mass production of methamphetamine by Mexican drug cartels continues to increase, as an estimated 80% of what is currently sold in the U.S. is originated from Mexico. Regulation on precursor chemicals has shown to be beneficial in the prevention of establishing clandestine labs within the U.S. Though there are purchase restriction levels on precursor chemicals such as pseudoephedrine under the Combat Methamphetamine Act of 2006, individuals are able to go store-to-store and purchase these chemicals below limit and remain under law enforcement radar. States like Oregon have made pseudoephedrine a prescription only drug and this has reduced methamphetamine lab incidents from 190 to 12 in just a five year time frame between 2005 and Global efforts to restrict methampetamine precursor chemicals have been progressively positive through transnational communication and agreements. Yet, super lab manufacturers continue to receive large amounts of precursor chemicals from primary sources in India and China. As methamphetamine continues to grow in popularity, and is available throughout the United States, the wide spread distribution by illicit clandestine lab production, the availability and quality of the product, and the weakened enforcement on precursor chemical regulations will only increase into a national epidemic and domestic threat to the population. Though local and federal seizures are dramatically increasing, taking thousands of pounds and millions of dollars worth of methamphetamine off the street, production from Mexican super labs will continue to feed supply and demand. The United States, while doing well to address the demand for methamphetamine, must aggressively target the supply and distribution of the drug. Strong transnational agreements and cooperation with Mexico and both China and India, the primary suppliers of precursor chemicals, must be held to actively and coordinately dissolve methamphetamine super labs to insure a great decrease in the production and availability of the drug. Author: Ben Sylvestre 5