Ventura River Watershed

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Clara Jenkins
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1 Ventura River Watershed Bill Watkins May 2010 CLU CERF

2 Greg Mankiw One thing we cannot do very well Is forecast the economy.

3 About CLU CERF & Happy Faces

4 Outline The economy & the environment How are our indicators doing? United States Economy California in Crisis Ventura River Watershed

5 The Economy and the Environment

6 Environmental Quality is a Luxury Good

7 Environmental Quality Per-Capita Wealth

8 If only the housing boom continued

9 If only the economic boom continued

10 Rich working women don t have many babies

11 Conclusion: Capitalism and Feminism can save the World!

12 How are our indicators doing?

13 M3 1981M6 1988M9 1995M M3 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting Capacity Utilization: Total index, (% Capacity, SA) for United States

14 $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5, Q3 1991Q2 1995Q1 1998Q4 2002Q3 2006Q2 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting All Insured Commercial Banks and Savings Institutions: Total loans and leases - Total Charge-offs, (Mil. USD, NSA) for United States

Research and Forecasting All Insured Commercial Banks and Savings

15 United States Household Debt Share: Mortgages Percent of Current Income 1980Q1 1986Q1 1992Q1 1998Q1 2004Q1 2010Q1

16 70.0 United States Home Ownership Rate, SA Percent of Households Q1 1986Q1 1992Q1 1998Q1 2004Q1 2010Q1

17 TED Spread normalized by 3 month Treasury 1980Q1 1986Q1 1992Q1 1998Q1 2004Q1 2010Q1 Annual Yield as a percent of 3-mo. Treasury

18 Recession by the Numbers January million out of work and looking for a job 6.3 million out of work over six months. 9.3 million underemployed Over half of unemployed out of work for over 19 weeks Average unemployment duration 30 weeks 4.5 million had left the labor force.

19 Why don t we forecast a vigorous recovery? Over leveraged Consumers Business Lenders Banks Fiscal Policy Monetary Policy

20 United States

21 Recovery Real Gross Domestic Product Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting United States - (saar q-o-q percent change)

22 Jobs Will Finally Start Growing Non-Farm Jobs-SA Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting United States - (saar q-o-q percent change)

23 Unemployment Will Remain High Unemployment Rate - SA Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting United States - (Percent of labor force)

24 We ran another scenario or the case for a Double-Dip Recession

25 It is not what sectors will lead the recovery, it is Big versus Little

26 Big versus Little Big = Access to markets Little = bank borrowers Big = Free Government Insurance Little = You are on your own Regulations

27 California in Crisis Bill Watkins March 2010 CLU CERF

28 M6 2004M1 2005M8 2007M3 2008M10 Employment, (Ths., NSA) for California

29 15 Real Retail Sales Growth Q1 1989Q1 1995Q1 2001Q1 2007Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting California - (y-o-y percent change)

30 Domestic Migration Center for Economic Research and Forecasting California (thousands of persons)

31 Increasing Inequality Education Domestic migration International migration

32 Expect Very Slow Growth Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting California - (saar q-o-q percent change) United States - (saar q-o-q percent change)

33 Unemployment Will Remain Really High Unemployment Rate-SA Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting California - (percent of labor force)

34 Lots More Foreclosures Foreclosure Rate: Percent of Loans Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting California - (percent of loans)

35 Ventura River

36 Ventura River Economic Zones Lower, below Foster Park Middle Upper, above confluence of Matilija Creek and North Fork

37 Upper Zone

38 Middle Zone Uses Likely future Threats

39 Middle Zone Uses Water Storage Recreational Agricultural Residential

40 Middle Zone Likely Changes and Threats Water Storage Recreational Agricultural Residential

41 Lower Zone Uses Likely future Threats

42 Lower Zone Uses Industrial Oil Waste Treatment Residential

43 Lower Zone Changes and Threats Industrial Residential

44 The Rest of the Story: Forecast Risk

45 Thank you! Please visit our website for: Forecast data Op-eds Blogs Tweets Analysis RSS Feeds

Economic Outlook 2009/2010

Economic Outlook 2009/2010 Economic Outlook 29/21 s Twenty-Eighth Annual Forecast Luncheon Paul R. Portney Dean, Professor of Economics, and Halle Chair in Leadership Marshall J. Vest Director Economic and Business Research Center