Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to SUMMARY REPORT

Transcription

1 Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to SUMMARY REPORT Prepared by the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ABN: Queens Parade, Clifton Hill, Victoria, 3068 Telephone: (03) ; Facsimile: (03) March 2015 TON /Economic forecasts-tony/2015/march

2 While the National Institute endeavours to provide reliable forecasts and believes the material is accurate it will not be liable for any claim by any party acting on such information.

3 1. Introduction This summary report presents projections of Victorian electricity sales and maximum demand projections to This report mainly focuses on the baseline scenario. The forecasts in this report build on and extend previous modelling work by NIEIR over the last 20 years. These projections of energy were prepared in February 2015 and incorporate fiscal actuals. Maximum demand projections were prepared in February 2015 and incorporate the Victorian operational peak demand up to the end of February Key aspects of the forecasting methodologies, including electricity price assumptions and policy impacts on energy sale and Victorian maximum demands, are presented in the main report. This includes assumptions regarding small-scale photovoltaic systems, electric vehicles and other Federal and State efficiency measures. Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 3

4 2. The economic outlook for Australia to Introduction This section provides an outline of the economic outlook for Australia to Figure 2.1 shows the outlook for Australian gross domestic product to for the Base scenario. Figure 2.1: Australian GDP growth Base scenario (annual per cent change) Note: Financial years ending June. Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 4

5 2.2 The world and national outlook Introduction This section provides a brief introduction to the outlook for the world and Australian economies World economy In the short-term ( ), we expect there will be an acceleration in world GDP growth. This reflects a number of factors, including: the recovery in the United States economy; the adoption of an aggressive monetary stimulus in Japan and the Euro region; and the process of working off excess capacity created by the GFC. In the short-term world GDP growth is expected to be around 3.5 per cent. In the medium-term (2017 to 2021), world growth is likely to slow to around 2.7 per cent. This partly reflects the likely end of quantitative easing of monetary policies in the developed economies and the associated increase in interest rates. Capital flows that poured into the developing economies will be reversed and could lead to crisis in these developing economies The Australian economy To some extent growth in the Australian economy will mirror the world economy. In the short-term, reductions in interest rates and commodity prices and relatively low inflation will maintain real income growth, while the housing market recovery will assist growth. However, the positive impacts will be offset by: the decline in mining investment; contractionary fiscal policy flowing from the declines in the terms of trade; increased import penetration from the lagged adjustment to the high exchange rate regime of 2011 to 2014, including the end of motor vehicle production; the East Coast gas shortages associated with the Gladstone LNG plants further undermining competitiveness; and current household debt saturation will prevent the current housing prices and activity recovery having the same wealth increase in consumption expenditure growth that characterised the 1995 to 2007 period. As a result, the Australian economy trend rate of growth over the next two to three years is likely to be near 2.5 per cent, well below historical trends. The unemployment rate will steadily rise towards 7 per cent and above. As a consequence the level of migration will be reduced. The population growth will fall to 1.4 per cent in 2017 and 1.2 per cent in 2021, compared to 1.8 per cent growth in Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 5

6 As the rest of the world resorts to quantitative easing policies over 2015 and, therefore, further falls in medium-term interest rates could see the currency return to about 80 to 85 cents in This may not last however. Australian current account deficit will return to around 8 per cent of GDP as a result of the current falls in the terms of trade. The trough in the exchange rate is likely to be around 2017 to 2019 when the easing of monetary expansion in the developed countries results in increasing world medium-term interest rates and a recovery of currencies. The Australian dollar could well fall to the 40 to 50 cent range to the US dollar. The lagged adjustment to the current fall in the $US/$A exchange rate plus falls in the weighted average exchange rate from 2016 onwards will produce inflation rates in the 3 to 4 per cent range from 2017 to This will be a major focus of policy. Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 6

7 3. The outlook for Victoria to Introduction This section outlines the economic outlook for Victoria to Summary of scenario Figure 3.1 shows the outlook for Victorian GSP growth over the period to for the Base scenario. Between and Victorian GSP growth is projected to average 2.3 per cent per annum under the Base scenario. Figure 3.1: Victorian GSP growth Base scenario to Source: NIEIR and ABS. Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 7

8 3.3 The base scenario outlook for Victoria to Gross state product (GSP) Victorian gross state product is forecast to increase by 1.0 per cent in , following growth of 1.5 per cent in Victorian GSP growth accelerates in and to around 2.0 per cent in both years. The increase in GSP growth reflects: rises in private dwelling investment expenditure in and ; strong increases in private business investment in and ; and steady but modest growth in private final consumption expenditure. Total new dwelling approvals in Victoria fell from around 60,500 units in to around 48,600 in Over new dwelling approvals recovered reaching around 54,400 units. Over , Victorian new dwelling approvals could reach over 60,000 units again. These movements will support Victorian private dwelling expenditure over and A sustained high exchange rate regime over the last few years has adversely affected the competitiveness of Australia s manufacturing sector. Victorian manufacturing has also been adversely affected and this has led to the closure of some establishments operating in Victoria. The industries particularly affected include: metal product manufacturing; petroleum and chemical manufacturing; transport equipment manufacturing; and textiles, clothing and footwear manufacturing. Alcoa s Point Henry aluminium smelter closed in mid-2014 and followed closures by Bluescope Steel at Westernport. Ford Australia, Holden and Toyota announced the closure of their motor vehicle assembly plant in 2013 and These closures, over 2016 and 2017, will have significant impacts on Victorian GSP growth. Victorian GSP growth accelerates to 2.5 per cent in and 2.4 per cent in Between and Victorian GSP growth averages 1.8 per cent per annum. Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 8

9 4. Electricity sales and customer number forecasts to 2025 This section presents electricity sales forecasts by class to 2025 for Victoria. Forecasts are presented on a calendar year basis to 2025 for the base scenario. 4.1 The baseline scenario Under the baseline scenario, Victoria s gross regional product grows by 2.3 per cent in average terms between 2015 and Population rises by an average rate of 1.2 per cent between 2015 and Table 4.1 shows projections of electricity sales by class for fiscal years to Figure 4.1 shows the average growth by class for the base scenario between 2015 and Victorian electricity sales fall by 7.3 per cent in and 1.6 per cent in The large fall in reflects the closure of Alcoa s Point Henry aluminium smelter. Residential electricity sales fall across to Commercial electricity sales increase slowly across the forecast period. Falling residential sales and slow growth in commercial sales in Victoria is partly due to the lagged effect of electricity price increases and further growth in small scale PV systems. Total installations of small-scale PV rise by nearly 200,000 between and Industrial electricity sales fall out to , initially reflecting the closure of the Point Henry smelter in July The closure of the motor vehicle assembly plant in Victoria by Ford Australia and Toyota also impact on industrial sales. Ford in Campbellfield and Geelong are set to close in October 2016 and Toyota at Altona by the end of The recovery in Victorian electricity sales growth (2018 to 2025) in Victoria reflects a number of factors: improved competitiveness of Victorian manufacturing as a result of the fall in the Australian dollar; the gradual impact of sustained falls in electricity prices between 2015 and 2020; and continued customer growth in Victoria reflecting gross state product and population growth. Total Victorian electricity sales growth averages 0.5 per cent per annum between and Table 4.2 shows the industry composition of Victorian electricity sales to across 20 industry sectors, as well as residential and public lighting sales. Table 4.3 shows total Victorian transmission point connection energy and Victorian operational demand. This table allows a comparison to be made with AEMO s 2014 Victorian forecasts of energy to Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 9

10 Figure 4.1: Victorian electricity sales growth by class base scenario Average annual growth 2015 to 2025 Figure 4.2: Total Victorian operational demand NIEIR and AEMO (2014) Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 10

11 Table 4.1 Victorian electricity sales by class (GWh) Residential Commercial Industrial Public lighting Total Distribution business sales (1) Percentage change Compound percentage change Note: (1) Estimated distribution sales by NIEIR. Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 11

12 5. Maximum demand forecasts for Victoria to Historical trends in maximum demand Table 5.1 shows maximum demands events for recent summers for Victoria as measured by operational demand as generated. This includes demand met by scheduled generation, semischeduled generation and significant non-scheduled generation. The summer had a significant heat wave during mid-january with four consecutive above 40 degree days from 14 th to the 17 th. However, the maximum demand of 10,312 megawatts occurred later on the 28 th when there were likely more people back from holidays and returning to work. In contrast, the summer maximum demand only reached 8,626 megawatts (indicative as of February 14 th, 2015). This is partly due to very mild weather conditions across the whole of the summer and during peak demand. Other factors include the closure of the Point Henry smelter, and further installations of commercial and residential photovoltaics. Table 5.1 Observed maximum demand for recent summers Operational demand (as generated) Temperature (degrees Celsius) Summer Date Demand (megawatts) Time Max Min Ave Thursday, 22 January ,626 4:00 PM Tuesday, 28 January ,312 4:30 PM Tuesday, 12 March ,775 4:30 PM Tuesday, 24 January ,177 4:00 PM Tuesday, 1 February ,916 12:30 PM Monday, 11 January ,107 4:00 PM Thursday, 29 January ,493 12:30 PM Monday, 17 March ,818 4:00 PM Tuesday, 16 January ,062 3:00 PM Friday, 24 February ,730 4:00 PM Source: AEMO, BOM. Over recent years the growth in summer maximum demand has moderated. Much of this history is consistent with the increased installation and use of air conditioners in homes and businesses in Victoria. Table 5.2 shows the percentage of households in Victoria with at least one air conditioner installed has increased from 36.9 to 78.4 since Table 5.2 Air conditioners in dwellings Year Per cent of households with air conditioners, Victoria Source: ABS Catalogue No various releases. Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 12

13 Moreover, these statistics are consistent with confidential data compiled by major suppliers of air conditioners on sales in Victoria. These data shows that sales increased roughly eight fold between early 1990s and late 2000s. The sales of air conditioners rose substantially through the late-1990s and again mid-2000s. While levels of sales have moderated slightly in recent years, they remain at historically high levels. Notwithstanding the reduced number of sales in last few years, the aggregate stock of air conditioners installed in Victoria is likely to have continued to grow. This will be from installations into dwellings previously without an air conditioner including new dwellings; and from households and business installing and using two or more air conditioners. Sales are expected to grow at a more modest level over the next 10 years compared to historical sales, as the market trends toward saturation (on a households with at least one air conditioner basis). 5.2 Projections of maximum demand Going forward, the evolution in maximum demand will reflect dynamics in temperature insensitive demand and temperature sensitivity of demand. On this basis, the forecasts of temperature insensitive demand and temperature sensitivities will be critically important to forecasting underlying maximum demand. Figure 5.1 presents projections of maximum demand for 10%, 50% and 90% probability of exceedance levels using the above drivers, and including post-modelling adjustments. Maximum demand at 10% probability of exceedance level is projected to increase, on average, by around 1.6 per cent per annum over the period to Maximum demand is expected to grow moderately in the short term, before stronger growth in the long term. The maximum demand at 10% probability of exceedance grew by 1.4 per cent over the to , while it is projected to grow less at 0.76 per cent from to Figure 5.1: Projections of maximum demand at 10%, 50% and 90% probability of exceedance levels (megawatts) Source: NIEIR s Peaksim Model. Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 13

14 Table 5.3 Historical and projected maximum demand including exogenous adjustments Native MD 90% PoE 50% PoE 10% PoE ,520 9,131 9,673 10, ,146 9,162 9,743 10, ,979 9,370 9,979 10, ,207 9,399 10,027 10, ,793 9,000 9,636 10, ,357 9,119 9,798 10, ,687 8,812 9,546 10, ,067 9,717 10, ,918 9,715 10, ,048 9,808 10, ,265 10,017 11, ,392 10,197 11, ,395 10,269 11, ,515 10,474 11, ,768 10,694 11, ,879 10,905 12, ,182 11,104 12,384 Notes: Source: 10%, 50%, 90% PoE hindcast estimates to then projection from onwards. Maximum demand is native as generated. Includes scheduled, semi-scheduled, significant non-scheduled and small non-scheduled generation. NIEIR. Figure 5.2: Victorian native maximum demand forecasts NIEIR and AEMO Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 14