Predicted reduction of suitable climate habitat of Mexican conifers due to climatic change. Assisted migration as management option

Transcription

1 Predicted reduction of suitable climate habitat of Mexican conifers due to climatic change. Assisted migration as management option Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero, Dante Castellanos-Acuña Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias y Forestales Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo (UMSNH), Morelia, Michoacán, México Gerald E. Rehfeldt Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service Moscow, Idaho, USA Roberto A. Lindig-Cisneros Centro de Investigación en Ecosistemas, UNAM Morelia, Michoacán, México Juan Manuel Ortega-Rodríguez, María Consuelo Marín-Togo and Xavier Madrigal-Sánchez, Facultad de Biología, UMSNH Morelia, Michoacán, México 1

2 Contemporary climate: , 4000 stations Spline climatic model using ANUSPLINE Future climate adjusting each station values by IPCC outputs 2 Sáenz-Romero et al Climatic Change.

3 Increment of Temperature (oc) PROJECTED INCREASE OF TEMPERATRE FOR MÉXICO Canadian A1B Canadian A2 Canadian B1 Geophisical Fluids A2 Geophisical Fluids B1 Hadley A2 Hadley B2 Average Year 3 Sáenz-Romero et al Climatic Change

4 Contemporary Mean Annual Temperature Maps made by Pierre Duval, Service canadien des forêts, Quebec, Canada. 4 Sáenz-Romero et al Climatic Change.

5 Canadian Model, Scenario A2 5

6 6

7 7

8 % Change in Precipitation PROJECTED DECREASE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MÉXICO Canadian A1B Canadian A2 Canadian B1 Geophisical Fluid A2 Geophisical Fluid B1 Hadley A2 Hadley B2 Average Year Sáenz-Romero et al Climatic Change

9 ANNUAL ARIDITY INDEX Michoacán state

10 Michoacán State Annual aridity index Contemporary Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve Year

11 Contemporary climate habitat for Abies religiosa 11 Sáenz-Romero et al Forest Ecology and Management.

12 Future climate 12

13 Abies religiosa, Sanctuary El Rosario 13

14 Sanctuary El Rosario 14

15 Sanctuary El Rosario 15

16 Pinus pseudostrobus MICHOACÁN STATE 16

17 MODELING OF SUITABLE CLIMATIC HABITAT FOR Pinus pseudostrobus USING RANDOM FOREST (average error: 6 %), CONTEMPORARY CLIMATE 17

18 DECREASE 51 % BY

19 DECREASE 68 % BY

20 DECREASE BY 90 % FOR

21 Pinus psedostrobus, CONTEMPORARY, 2030, 2060 AND 2090 NUEVO SAN JUAN PARANGARICUTIRO, MICHOACÁN 21

22 FOREST DECLINE AT THE SPECIES LOW ALTITUDINAL LIMIT (2300 masl) 22

23 Cedrus atlantica, Bous Ikhitane, Marruecos 23 Cortesía de Mátyás Csaba, Univ. de Hungría

24 FOREST DECLINE AT THE SPECIES LOW ALTITUDINAL LIMIT 24 Mátyás Nature.

25 Habitat prediction for Pinus chiapensis and planning assisted migration (assisted colonization) 25 Contemporary climate Hadley, year 2060 Sáenz-Romero et al Climatic Change.

26 Assisted migration of Abies religiosa

27 Pinus pseudostrobus ALTITUDINAL SEED ZONES 3000 m 3700 m SUGESTED SHIFT UPWARDS: 300 M TO REALIGN POPULATIONS TO PROJECTED CLIMATE m 3100 m Michoacán state Sáenz-Romero, et al Revista Fitotecnia Mexicana Next specie: Pinus devoniana 27

28 2700 m Cerro de Pario COMMON GARDEN ASSISTED MIGRATION TEST PROVENANCES COLLECTED AND TESTED ALONG AN ALTITUDINAL GRADIENT Collection: m La Pila 2100 m El Rosario 28

29 2700 m Cerro de Pario TWO YEARS LATER 2400 m La Pila 2100 m El Rosario 29

30 % Survivorship Survivorship (2 year-old) Pinus pseudostrobus Pinus devoniana 90 30

31 Relative growth (%) Relative growth (%) P. pseudostrobus R 2 = 0.92 P = For each 100 m of shift uppwards, 5 % of decrease in growth Altitudinal transfer distance (m) Relative growth in seedling height Scaled to local population performance (100 %) If moved > 400, severe growth decline P. devoniana R 2 = 0.66 P = Altitudinal transfer distance (m)

32 CONCLUSIONS 1. Climatic change will cause a decoupling between forest tree populations and the climate for which they are adapted. 2. Decoupling will induce forest decline 3. It is needed to realign the forest populations to the climate for which they are adapted. 4. Assisted migration is a management option to achieve such realigment. 5. We suggest a shift 300 m upwards in altitude, to compensate a projected increment of 1.5 C in temperature by year Shift upwards would imply a decrease of growth of 5 % per each +100 m of altitude. 32

33 Literature Loya-Rebollar, E., C. Sáenz-Romero,R. A. Lindig-Cisneros, P. Lobitt, J. Villegas-Moreno, and N. M. Sánchez-Vargas Clinal variation in Pinus hartwegii populations and its application for adaptation to climate change. Silvae Genetica 62(3): Mátyás C Forecasts needed for retreating forests. Nature 464:1271. Sáenz-Romero C, Rehfeldt GE, Crookston NL, Pierre D, St-Amant R, Beaulieu J, Richardson B Spline models of contemporary, 2030, 2060 and 2090 climates for Mexico and their use in understanding climate-plant impacts on vegetation. Climatic Change 102: Sáenz-Romero C, Rehfeldt GE, Duval P, Lindig-Cisneros P Abies religiosa habitat prediction in climatic change scenarios and implications for monarch butterfly conservation in Mexico. Forest Ecology and Management 275: Sáenz-Romero. C., G. E. Rehfeldt, J. C. Soto-Correa, S. Aguilar-Aguilar, V. Zamarripa-Morales, and J. López-Upton Altitudinal genetic variation among Pinus pseudostrobus populations from Michoacán, México. Two location shadehouse test results. Revista Fitotecnia Mexicana 32 (2): Viveros-Viveros H, Sáenz-Romero C, Vargas-Hernández JJ, López-Upton J, Ramírez-Valverde G, Santacruz-Varela A Altitudinal genetic variation in Pinus hartwegii Lindl. I.: height growth, shoot phenology, and frost damage in seedlings. Forest Ecology and 33 Management 257:

34 FUNDING National Commission for the Study and Use of the Biodiversity (CONABIO, project JM036) National Council for Science and Technology and the State of Michoacán (FOMIX ) Coordinación de la Investigación Científica and PIFI-2013, UMSNH USDA-Forest Service Nicholas Crookston / Web csaenzromero@gmail.com Cuauhtémoc Sáenz Julio Ruiz Dennis Joyce Gerald Rehfeldt 34