FINANCING PERSPECTIVE
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1 C1 FINANCING PERSPECTIVE European Forum for Science and Industry Olivier Musset Energy Finance Société Générale
2 DISCLAIMER This Presentation has been prepared by Société Générale Corporate and Investment Banking ( SG ) and is provided to recipients on a strictly private and confidential basis. This Presentation may not be reproduced in whole or in part, nor may any of its contents be divulged to third parties, without the prior written consent of SG. The information in this Presentation is obtained from SG or has been obtained from other sources considered to be reliable. Whilst the information in this Presentation has been provided in good faith, it does not purport to be comprehensive or to have been independently verified. SG does not accept any liability or responsibility for the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any of the information or opinions contained in this Presentation. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be given by SG, or any of their respective partners, shareholders, officers, employees, representatives (the Parties ) with respect to the information or opinions contained in this Presentation or any of its appendices or the information on which this Presentation is based. Any liability therefore is hereby expressly disclaimed. The distribution of this document in certain countries may be restricted and each recipient must observe any such restrictions. This document does not constitute, is not authorized by any Party or otherwise for the purposes of and may not be used for the purposes of, any solicitation to any person in any country in which such solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such a solicitation. SG conducts its business in the UK through Société Générale London Branch ( SGLB ). Société Générale is a French credit institution (bank) authorised and supervised by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel (the French Prudential Control Authority). SGLB is subject to limited regulation in the UK by the Financial Services Authority. 2
3 HISTORICAL ACHIEVEMENTS EMEA Project Finance Loan Volumes ($m) : 2013 figures for EMEA as of today sources: Dealogic s Projectware 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ytd Commercial / industrial Energy / power Infrastructure Natural resources # Deals 0 By , the European Commission expect power generation and the transmission and distribution sectors to require over 1 trillion investment Expected growth in Europe in electricity generation from renewable sources until 2020 sources: IEA, BCG Solar PV Offshore wind Onshore wind +30 GW +45 GW (~ +6 GW/year) (~ + 4 GW/year) +75 GW (~ GW/year) 3
4 WHAT DOES THE UTILITIES INDUSTRY NEED? Liquidity for Investments Legally non-recourse to project sponsors High Leverage Reduction of corporate financing burden Long Tenor Country risk mitigation Fair Risk Allocation Balance Sheet & Rating constraints 4 4
5 FUNDAMENTAL CREDIT ANALYSIS Two different natures of risk from a Lender s perspective: Merchant (PRICE NOT VOLUME) Applies to commodities : Oil & Gas, Metals, some infrastructures such as toll roads, some power generations in US and Australia Based on reliable long term price forecasts Regulated / Contracted Applies to most infrastructures, most power generations, and renewable energy generations Based on PPAs and/or subsidies such as feed-in tariffs, up-front grant More market related support mechanism such as capacity remuneration mechanism (CRM), Contract for Difference (CfD), Evolution of the instruments of support of renewable energy sources in the EU: Feed-in tariffs or premiums currently still the main instrument of support in EU More convergence towards marketrelated support mechanisms? 5
6 MERCHANT CREDIT ANALYSIS Electricity price Renewable energy sources have by nature the privilege of priority dispatch But renewable are also facing challenges: Integration in the energy market Dispatching / balancing Production predictability Consumption Feedstock prices and subsidies are key Interference of non market related element (CO2 cost) PPA to bridge the gap 6
7 WHAT DO LENDERS NEED TO LEND LONG TERM IN A REGULATED MARKET? REGULATORY FRAMEWORK WHICH: IS WELL INTEGRATED TO A LONG TERM STRATEGY IS UNDERSTANABLE AND WELL DEFINED CAN GIVE PREDICTABLE CASH-FLOWS IS STABLE AND NOT SUBJECT TO RETROACTIVE CHANGES SUSTAINABLE AND AFFORDABLE IN THE LONG RUN EUROPEAN FINANCING INSTITUTIONS TO PARTICIPATE IN FINANCINGS TO CREATE A MOMENTUM 7
8 THE WAY FORWARD POWER MERCHANT RISK TO CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE FOR LENDERS SUBSIDY MECHANISMS MUST BE SUSTAINABLE AND CONVERGE TOWARDS MORE MARKET ORIENTED MECHANISMS PROVIDED AN ADEQUATE REGULATED FRAMEWORK IS IN PLACE, LIQUIDITY AVAILABLE FOR SOUND PROJECTS FROM: COMMERCIAL BANKS STILL NASCENT (BUT PROMISING) PROJECT BONDS EUROPEAN FINANCING INSTITUTIONS TO CREATE A MOMENTUM IN OFFSHORE WIND IN PARTICULAR 8
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