TCU Environmental Scan Graduate Enrollment Issues

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1 TCU Environmental Scan Graduate Enrollment Issues TCU has stated its planning assumptions for the current development of the strategic papers include: 1. TCU would like to be near the top of Tier II ranked institutions. 2. TCU would like to have a strong residential presence. 3. TCU would like to increase the number/type of graduate programs (perhaps through adding a professional school). 4. TCU would like to increase its national visibility The development of the graduate programming and enrollment is critical, then, to the meeting of three of its planning goals. Given this, it is critical to examine where TCU currently stands in graduate programming, the issues that are most likely to affect the University s ability to enhance graduate programming and enrollments and identify issues that will affect institutional strategic approaches. TCU Today TCU is classified as a national doctoral/research university-intensive under the Carnegie classifications. This means that it: Offers a wide range of baccalaureate programs and are committed to graduate education through the doctorate. They award at least 10 doctoral degree per year across three or more disciplines, or at least 20 doctoral degrees per year overall. Attachment 1 describes many of the characteristics of the TCU graduate programs at the current time. Total enrollment for the fall 2003 has grown to 1342 students, 56% of whom attend on a part-time basis. Much of the growth for this past fall was based on the development of a new program in Nurse Anesthesiology. The University has 6 doctoral programs (2 in Addran, 3 in Science and Engineering and a new joint MBA/Ed.D in Neeley and Education) and includes Brite doctoral degrees in its count for meeting the Carnegie Classification numbers. The University fact book lists 42 master s degrees. With the exception of its MBA programs and several programs in the School of Education, its master s programs are relatively small graduating fewer than 10 students per year. The larger master s program all fit into the category of professional master s and are relate to occupational certifications. Only the MBA program is recognized in the US News and World Report issue of Best Graduate Schools. The Neeley School of Business had over 43% of the 8311 graduate credit hours taught in fall The new Nurse Anesthesiology program had 13% of the credit hours. File A Graduate 1

2 Comparison with Other Universities TCU is listed as a Tier II national university within the US News rankings. When compared with other private Tier II national universities for its graduate profile, TCU has: 1. The third lowest percent of its overall student body enrolled in graduate programs. Only Brigham-Young and Clarkson are Tier II privates with a lower percentage. Baylor at 15% has the same percentage as TCU. 2. Granted the fourth fewest master s degrees and fewest doctoral degrees of any of the other Tier II privates in the year that the programs were measured ( ). 3. Was one of three universities without a school of law. 4. About average amounts of federal research funding among Tier II private national universities without a school of medicine in FY2000. In general Tier II national universities with medical schools and all Tier I private universities had significant higher levels of funded research. 5. A significantly larger endowment and a better bond rating than other Tier II private universities. Attachment 2 provides a basic comparison data base for understanding current University position within Tier 2 private universities and Tier 1 private universities that are not institutes of technology and do not have a school of medicine. Institutional Positioning Ideal Types As TCU sets institutional strategy for graduate programs, it is important to recognize the competitive setting and how that competitive landscape is changing to graduate programs. Attachment 3 provides a continuum of institutional positioning for graduate programming and lists basic institution strategies for ideal types of institutions along the continuum. Convenience based institutions and graduate program strategies are often considered the new competition in graduate programs. Through asynchronous forms of technology provided instruction, multiple sites and/or limited required class schedules, these institutions and programs seek to attract the working adult generally into highly structured occupationally related programs. Generally the business models used for these programs are low marginal costs, low margin and high volume programs built around multiple program start time during any given year. The University of Phoenix is one of the best known examples of this kind of institution, but smaller private universities have also become prevalent in this type of approach. These institutions have become new competition for the part-time master s and 1 st professional programs offered by established universities. The highly selective national university with extensive full time doctoral and 1 st professional programs represents the other end of the continuum. These institutions are generally represented File A Graduate 2

3 in the private Tier 1 national universities, plus some of the large public flagship universities. Their graduate and 1 st professional programs are generally heavily research based and are highly competitive nationally for student enrollments. Their faculties are often recruited for their research performance and scholarship. These institutions face little or no competitive pressures from the convenience based institutions. Between these two ideal types are institutions like TCU with a mixed approach to graduate education. The market for many of their programs is regional or local, the master s and doctoral programs are more professionally oriented in areas like education and business, and they have lowered sponsored research expectations. These institutions can face competitive pressure on a program by program basis from either convenience based programs or from national highly selective programs depending on their program orientation. This makes the systematic establishment of competitive value propositions essential part of planning for graduate positioning. It also means innovative programs including the development of efforts in area like alternative certification and multi-disciplinary approaches key elements of an institutional positioning strategy. Market Trends and Issues The market for graduate programs can be described as having three or four different levels global or international, national, regional and local/commuter. Global/International Non resident foreign students represented about 12.5% of the total enrollment in graduate (master s and Ph.D programs) and about 2.6% of the enrollment in 1 st professional degree programs in the United States in The National Science Foundation reports, however, that 26.7% of all master s degrees and 34.3% of all doctoral degrees in Science and Engineering in 2000 were earned by non-resident aliens. This trend has been relatively steady of the entire decade from 1990 to Furthermore nearly 70% of the non-resident aliens in Science and Engineering are from Asia. There are reports by institutions of involvement in exporting graduate programs and degree from US institutions abroad. These are being accomplished through distance learning approaches, partnerships with educational institutions and/or businesses in foreign countries and direct campus/site developments in those countries. Information about the size and ramifications of these efforts is not readily available. National It is important to distinguish between national markets for graduate program and the national demography of graduate education and programs. For the most part, the data presented in Attachment 4 relates to the demography and projections of enrollment for graduate education. File A Graduate 3

4 Graduate enrollment is projected to 10.5% to 12.5% between 2000 and 2012 depending on the projection alternative used by NCES. This represents an annual compound rate of less than 1% per year. Under the middle projection analysis, graduate enrollment is private universities both not-for-profit and for-profit are to grow about 66,000 or 8.7% over the 12 year timeframe. Parttime enrollment is expected to continue to grow faster than full-time enrollments. First professional enrollments are projected to grow 10.5 to13% over the same time period. Private universities are expected to receive a proportional increase with public universities of this enrollment. Recent trends in the demography of graduate student show some substantial trends. For example, while overall graduate enrollment grew 39% from 1976 to 2000, enrollment of females increased 73% while males only increased 9%. Similarly in 1 st professional programs enrollments increased 25%, but female enrollments increased 162% while male enrollments declined by14%. Ethnicity data shows similarly striking changes. White, non-hispanic enrollment in graduate programs grew 13% over the time period from 1976 to 2000 and was flat in 1 st professional programs. Asians and non-resident aliens represent the fastest growing groups in both numbers and percentage for both graduate and 1 st professional programs. Data on the graduate students approach to financing their educations shows that nationally graduate students have a ratio of 4 to 1 for loans over direct aid and fellowship. Undergraduate students have about a 1 to 1 ratio. Regional/State of Texas The primary markets for many graduate and 1 st professional programs remain regional, even though the programs may be national in scope. It is estimated, for example, that 87% of TCU graduate students were in Texas before enrolling at TCU. Thus, the certain demographic factors in Texas represent critical components of the market analysis for graduate program at TCU. Attachment 5 displays several important factors graphically. The market for graduate and 1 st professional degree is primarily from person aged 22 to 30 having completed an undergraduate degree. The populations aged 30 to 34 represent a second large segment and together these segments of the population constitute over 92% of all graduate degree recipients in a given year. This segment of the Texas population is large and has grown over the last several decades. Educational attainment statistics for Texas showed a 2.7% improvement in the percentage of its population over 25 with a college degree or higher from 1990 to 2000 though Texas still ranks 27 th among US states in this statistic. Through 2010, projections anticipate some continued improvement in educational attainment. However, major changes in the overall demographics of Texas suggest that the rapid growth of the Hispanic populations will actually lower educational attainment in the subsequent 30 years. Further the population demographics show a substantial reduction in the White, non-hispanic File A Graduate 4

5 populations 2000 and 2040 particularly in ages 20 to 35. This represents a significant potential market change for graduate education. Local The Dallas-Fort Worth area is now 9 th largest metropolitan area in terms of population over 25 in the United States and has an estimated 31% of this population with college degrees or higher. Relative to other large metropolitan areas, Dallas-Fort Worth would seem to have smaller number of public and private universities offering graduate and certain 1 st professional degrees. For example, there are only two accredited law schools in the area. Dallas-Fort Worth is facing many of the demographic changes in its population base as the rest of Texas though its current Hispanic population is smaller and its growth rate is projected to be lower than in the rest of Texas. The current proportion of the population with college degrees suggests that the job market for the area requires or, at least, promotes a higher level of education than for Texas as a whole. File A Graduate 5