A Cost-efficient Road Map towards 2050

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Moses Atkinson
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3 2011: A Cost-efficient Road Map towards % 100% 80% Power Sector 80% Current policy 60% Residential & Tertiary 60% Industry 40% 40% Transport 20% 20% Non CO 2 Agriculture 0% Non CO 2 Other Sectors 0% Cost-efficient pathway to 80% domestic reductions in % domestic reductions by 2030 Cut emissions below 2t/per cap by 2050, down from current 7.5 t/per cap Improving the GHG intensity of EU economy by another 50% in the next two decades with 40% by 2030 target Population (million) Assumed GDP growth rates p.a. 1,5% 1,6% 1,4% 1,4% Total GHG emissions (MtCO2e) Emission intensity (t of CO2/M 10) 487,2 394,0 299,0 202,7 102,3 52,2 Energy related CO2 em./cap 8,2 7,5 6,2 5,0 2,8 1,5 GHG em. Wrt % -15% -25% -41% -66% -80% Low carbon electricity 46% 49% 60% 73% 85% 94%

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5 2050: 80-90% Range of fuel shares in primary energy consumption as % wrt 2005 (yellow diamonds) and 2012 (red)

6 2030 EuroParliament 1. Reduction in emissions by 40% on 1990 levels 2. RES contribution on final energy consumption of 30% 3. Energy efficiency improvement by 40% European Commission 1. Reduction in emissions by 40% on 1990 levels 2. RES contribution on final energy consumption of 27% 3. Renewed ambitions for energy efficiency i.e. EED reloaded Greenpeace 1. Reduction in emissions by 55% on 1990 levels 2. RES contribution on final energy consumption of 45% 3. Energy efficiency improvement by 45% on 2005 levels

7 20-21 M The new framework should be based on the following principles further improve coherence between greenhouse gas emissions reduction, energy efficiency and the use of renewables and deliver the objectives for 2030 in a cost-effective manner, with a robust Emissions Trading System playing a central role in this regard; ensure security of energy supply for households and businesses at affordable and competitive prices; provide flexibility for the Member States as to how they deliver their commitments in order to reflect national circumstances and respect their freedom to determine their energy mix.

8 20-21 M a progressive evolution of support mechanisms for renewables to a more cost-effective and market-based system and more convergence of national support schemes beyond 2020; sustained investment in energy efficiency and demand-side management all along the value chain and at the R&D stage; fuller use of the electricity generation capacity available on the internal market rather than relying on national capacities alone, while recognizing the role of Member States in ensuring security of supply; promotion of domestic resources and of competition on gas supply markets and addressing the issue of the contractual linkage of gas and oil prices. Member States will further examine their different national practices on energy policy levies, tax components of prices and network costs & take the appropriate actions leading to [energy] cost reduction in the manner most suited to their specific circumstances

9 20-21 M the European Council invites the Council and the Commission to continue work and rapidly develop the following elements analyse the implications for individual Member States of the Commission's proposals for emission reductions and renewable energy in the EU; elaborate mechanisms which will result in fair effort sharing and foster the modernisation of the energy sector; develop measures to prevent potential carbon leakage and call for long-term planning security for industrial investment, in order to ensure the competitiveness of Europe's energyintensive industries; review the Energy Efficiency Directive in a timely manner and develop an energy efficiency framework. The European Council will take stock of progress made on these issues at its meeting in June, based inter alia on consultations with Member States, with a view to taking a final decision before the end of the year.

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I. GROWTH, COMPETITIVENESS AND JOBS A. THE EUROPEAN SEMESTER

I. GROWTH, COMPETITIVENESS AND JOBS A. THE EUROPEAN SEMESTER 17.3 The European economy is recovering, after several years of limited or even negative growth. The recovery is expected to strengthen this year. The European Council had an exchange of views on the economic