3. MONITORING DEVELOPMENT & BUILDING APPLICATIONS TO ANALYSE DEMAND

Transcription

1 3. MONITORING DEVELOPMENT & BUILDING APPLICATIONS TO ANALYSE DEMAND This section of the report utilises data from the City s Spatial Trends Analysis System developed during 27 and 28. This system allows the user to query information relating to Development (Town Planning) Applications and Building Applications. Town Planning or Building Applications can be analysed by application type and land use and can be located by geographical area (e.g. Citywide, Regions, Wards, Growth Management ). Each system represents a development indicator. The system has been operational since June 28 and has been subjected to extensive testing and fine-tuning. Presently, the data that drives the system is not real time and is uploaded periodically. Information captured to date includes Town Planning and Building Application Submissions since November 27. Historical information is currently being captured into the system retrospectively in order to allow for historical analysis over a multiyear period. This section of the report draws exclusively from results generated from the Trends system. It considers a one year period between January 1 st 28 and January 29. The Town Planning Application System (TAS) reflects the number and location of planning applications submitted and therefore represents the perceived demand in terms of the market s intention to develop. The Building Application System (BAS) reflects the number and location of Building Control applications received by the City. This system provides the City with the best indication of where development is occurring on the ground. The BAS system therefore represents investment linked demand. This information is important for the Trends and Development Indicators Report as it reflects where the perceived market demand is versus where investment led demand is actually taking place. These two development indicators also provides a mechanism to measure whether the market is reacting to policy interventions such as the GMS and whether development taking place has a direct relationship to the priority GMS areas in the City. Applications reflected by TAS were submitted in 28 and may still be under consideration by the City. Town Planning Applications can take up to 2 years for a formal decision to be issued. As such there is no direct relationship between the TAS and BAS system as yet due to the lack of information within the TAS system from 26. The information in the TAS and BAS systems will be updated on an annual basis. This report will therefore provide a basis (baseline study) from which to compare and evaluate the data on an annual basis in the future. Whilst the system reflects some time delay between TAS and BAS applications at present, it may be possible in the future to track the progress of both applications on a single property. This would provide insight in terms of the average time delay between Development and Building Applications and an indication of how market demand has altered over that period. Growth Management Strategy: Growth Trends and Development Indicators Report 28/29 8

2 3.1 Perceived Market Demand: An Assessment of TAS Assessment per Land Use Table 3.1 Summary of Town Planning Applications (City-Wide) per Land Use Land Use No. of Applications No. of Properties Area of Land (m2) Area of Land (Ha) ,315,514 1, ,156,254 3, ,458, Business / Retail ,88, , , ,4 42 Total ,763,343 5,676 Graph 3.1 Percentage of Planning Applications (City-Wide) per Land Use Percentage of TAS Applications Per Land Use 7% 12% 33% 1% 1% 46% Business Graph 3.2 Percentage of Property Area affected (City-Wide) per Land Use Percentage of Property Area (Ha) Affected per Land Use 11% 31% a) Summary of Data: 1% 4% 53% Business The greatest number of Town Planning applications submitted relate to Use. The greatest number of properties affected were also for Use The applications which covered the greatest area of land in the City were however for 1 uses, followed by and Business/ Retail uses. During the year 523 Town Planning Applications were received covering 5,676 hectares of land. Both and Land Uses represent 1% of the total number of applications submitted respectively and only affect.3% of the total land area affected respectively. 1 uses denote land uses zoned for Institutional, Government, Educational, Agricultural, Community Facilities, Public Garages, Private Open Space and Special Uses such as places of amusement, casinos and mixed use activities. Growth Management Strategy: Growth Trends and Development Indicators Report 28/29 9

3 3.1.2 Development Applications per GMS Area / Land Use Map 3.1 GMS Table 3.2 Applications per land use per GMS Area - Land Use Total applications per Landuse PTMA (Consolidation) Marginalised Consolidation PTMA (Marginalised) Peri-Urban Expansion Area Business/ Retail TOTAL % of Total 41% 7% 49% 2% 1% b) Summary of Data: Kilometers Gautrain Stations SARCC Rail Stations Regions BRT Rail Motorway Public Transport Management Area Marginalised Expansion Peri_Urban Management Consolidation Consolidation cover the greatest area of land within the City as not all the Growth Management are equal in size. Development applications are concentrated within Consolidation and PTMA areas within Consolidation respectively. 49% of town planning applications fall within Consolidation areas and 41% of applications fall within Public Transport Management (falling within Consolidation ). Very few applications are for development in Expansion and Peri Urban (1% and respectively). Only 2% of applications are for development in Marginalised The greatest area of land affected falls within Consolidation 2 The largest number of properties affected are in Public Transport Management. 2 Growth Management Strategy: Growth Trends and Development Indicators Report 28/29 1

4 Graph 3.3 Applications Per GMS Area Size of Graph is representative of the Proportion of Total Applications falling within each GMS Area Consolidation : % Applications per Land Use Business / Retail 7% 1% 9% 54% 29% PTMA (Marginalised) : % Applications per Land Use 7 Business / Retail 3 Business / Retail PTMA (Consolidation): % of Applications per Land Use Business / Retail, 7, 2, 1 Peri-Urban: % Applications per Land Use Indust rial Business / Ret ail, 36, 19 Resident ial 2,, 35 Ot her 8 Marginalised : % of Applications per Land Use Business / Retail 8% Expansion Area: % Applications per Land Use Business / Retail Indust rial Resident ial 46% 46% Ot her 1 Growth Management Strategy: Growth Trends and Development Indicators Report 28/29 11

5 Graph 3.4 % of Applications per GMS Area Percentage of Total Number of Applications Per GMS Area Graph 3.6. % of Applications per Land Use in GMS % Applications per Land Use in GMS 2% 1% 12 7% 41% 49% Consolidation PTMA (Consolidation) Marginalised PTMA (Marginalised) Peri-Urban % of Applications Business PTMA (Consolidation) Marginalised Consolidation PTMA (Marginalised) Peri-Urban Expansion Area Expansion Land Use Graph 3.5 No. of applications per Land Use per GMS Area No. Applications PTMA (Consolidation) Marginalised Land Use Applications per GMA Area Consolidation PTMA (Marginalised) GMA Area Peri-Urban Expansion Area Business Graph 3.7 % Land Area Affected per GMS Area Percentage of Total Area Affected by Applications per GMS Area 3% 7% Consolidation 24% PTMA (Consolidation) Marginalised Peri-Urban 66% Expansion PTMA (Marginalised) Growth Management Strategy: Growth Trends and Development Indicators Report 28/29 12

6 a) Summary of Data: 66% of Applications fall within Consolidation 24% of Applications fall within PTMA (Consolidation ) 7% of Applications fall within Marginalised 58% of all applications for uses are concentrated in Consolidation and 32% in PTMA (Consolidation ). 32% of these applications fall within Region E and 28% in Region B. 83% of applications for Use (Large Scale Businesses and Warehouses) are located in PTMA (Consolidation). These applications are evenly spread between regions E and F. Applications for are located predominantly in PTMA (Consolidation) (65%) and 35% of the applications are located in Consolidation. Uses are evenly spread between PTMA (Consolidation) and Consolidation. The applications are also evenly spread between Regions C and F (4) with only 1 of applications in Region B. 49% of Business/ Retail Applications fall within Consolidation and 43% in PTMA (Consolidation). 33% of these are clustered in Region B and 34% in Region E. Only 7% of all applications fall within Marginalised. Of these applications 45% were for Uses, 45% were for Uses and 9% were for Retail/ Business Uses. The majority of applications are concentrated in Regions B and E which fall centrally within the city with the exception of applications which are predominantly located in Regions C and F to the West and South of the City. Sandton Randburg, Hyde Park and Rosebank are all prominent Nodes which fall within Regions B and E. Map 3.1: Map of Administrative Regions - Lenasia G D Kilometers Soweto C Roodepoort Orange Farm Lanseria B Diepsloot Fourways Randburg F A Sandton E Johannesburg CBD Midrand Ivory Park Rail Motorway Regions A B C D E F G Growth Management Strategy: Growth Trends and Development Indicators Report 28/29 13

7 3.1.3 Analysis of Density per GMS Area % of Use per GMS Area Medium Density vs GMS Area 32% 7% 3% 58% Consolidation Marginalised PTMA (Consolidation) PTMA (Marginalised) No. of Applications Consolidation PTMA (Consolidation) Marginalised PTMA (Marginalised) High Density vs GMS Low Density vs GMS No. of Application PTMA (Consolidation) Consolidation Marginalised Beyond UDB No. of Applications Consolidation PTMA (Consolidation) Marginalised PTMA (Marginalised) Growth Management Strategy: Growth Trends and Development Indicators Report 28/29 14

8 Consolidation - Uses Marginalised - Uses Percentage % PTMA (Consolidation)- Uses PTMA (Marginalised ) % % Growth Management Strategy: Growth Trends and Development Indicators Report 28/29 15

9 a) Summary of Data 3 : Applications are concentrated in Consolidation (58%) and 32% of the applications fall within PTMA (Consolidation). The greatest area of land affected by residential use also falls within Consolidation. Within the Consolidation Area, low density residential applications affect 622 Ha and high density residential applications 566 Ha. High Density Development is concentrated in PTMA (Consolidation) (5), followed by 28% in Consolidation and 18% in Marginalised. Within the PTMA (Consolidation Area) however, High density residential development only makes up 18% of the total number of applications for development. Within Marginalised, there remains a prevalence in low density residential housing (44% of all applications). High density residential represents 31% of the applications. Within PTMA (Marginalised) a majority (7) of residential applications are for low density. 4% of Applications for High Density Development fall beyond the UDB. This is however only representative of 1 application in total. Medium and Low Density Development is concentrated in the Consolidation followed by PTMA (Consolidation). 3 For the purpose of this analysis: 1 = Low Density / 2 & 3 = Medium Density 4 = High Density Growth Management Strategy: Growth Trends and Development Indicators Report 28/29 16

10 3.2 Investment Linked Demand: An Assessment of BAS Table 3.3 Summary of Building Applications (City-Wide) BAS Application Per Land Use Land Use No apps Area of Land m2 9,929 2,149,128 Retail / Business ,72 Commerce ,748 Office , , , Totals 1,338 2,949,82 Table 3.4 BAS Applications per GMS Area BAS Applications Per GMS Area Applications Extent (Sq. M) % Applications % Extent Consolidation 4,218 1,667, Marginalised 3, , PTMA 2, , Peri Urban 69 28, Expansion 1 4,624 Totals 1,338 2,949,82 a) Summary of Data: The greatest proportion of Building Plan applications received related to residential use. The greatest area of land affected by Building Plan applications also related to residential use. There were significantly lower levels of applications for Office, and uses. 41% of applications fall in the Consolidation, closely following by 38% of applications falling within Marginalised areas. The greatest land area per use in relation to the BAS applications is in Consolidation areas with the exception of uses which affect the greatest land area within PTMA areas. BAS reflects that investment linked demand lies predominantly in Consolidation (41%) closely followed by Marginalised where 38% of applications are located. 21% of applications fall within PTMA areas. Growth Management Strategy: Growth Trends and Development Indicators Report 28/29 17

11 3.3 Summary of Findings and Land Uses only formed 1% of applications and only affected.3% of the total land area. Given that other studies have indicated a very large demand for and land, this indicates that there is insufficient suitable land available for industrial uses. In addition this use is very reliant on access to efficient Freight transport. There is therefore a clear need to make specific provision for land use areas in the future taking into account the need for good access. The location of applications are concentrated in Consolidation and PTMA (Consolidation in regions C and F, most likely in the vicinity of Kya Sands and City Deep which have been shown to be nearing capacity both in terms of space and infrastructure. If provision is not made for land in the future it is likely that the City will continue to lose out on future industrial investment to other neighbouring municipalities such as Ekurhuleni. 83% of applications for uses (e.g. warehouse and large scale business) fall within in PTMA (Consolidation ). Whilst it is acknowledged that central, accessible locations are important from a distribution perspective, there are other uses such as offices, residential and business/ retail which should take priority over uses in PTMA areas given the end users of the use and their required access to Public Transport. The City should continue to support location of commercial uses in areas such as Linbro Park and Modderfontein. 58% of Planning applications for uses continue to be focussed in Consolidation with 32% of applications falling within PTMA (Consolidation ). The concentration of residential development to the north west of the City is a trend which continues unabated. The City would like to encourage a trend shift to increase the percentage of residential development in PTMA areas. Given the relatively recent introduction of the GMS policy, and given that the BRT and Gautrain are not operational as yet, this trend may shift towards PTMA areas over time and should be compared with the data from to ensure these policies take effect. The City should however also consider strengthening its incentives for location in the PTMA and Marginalised areas and consider Travel Demand Management policies to ensure greater convenience for the market sector located in the GMS priority areas. Whilst the Consolidation Area remains the focus for residential demand, the trend indicates that this area is densifying due to the demand. This is reflected by the land area taken up by applications for low density applications = 622 Ha versus high density applications affecting 566 Ha. Demand for high density residential uses falls predominantly in PTMA (Consolidation). This is a positive trend which should continue to be supported. However the overall demand remains for low and medium density housing in Consolidation. Applications in PTMA areas are not reflecting the desired level of demand for high density residential. A minimum density policy in these areas could be considered in combination with other density incentives in order to revert from such a high proportion of low density residential applications. Whilst applicants may be aware of GMS Policy limitations placed on development in Consolidation areas due to Infrastructure Capacities and constraints, this data suggests that there remains a limited level of infrastructure capacity which is being taken up by these applications, or the applicants are willing to provide infrastructure in these areas as a cost to their development due to the continued market demand for property in this vicinity. Growth Management Strategy: Growth Trends and Development Indicators Report 28/29 18

12 The trends indicate that 65% of Office uses desire location in the PTMA (Consolidation) of the City. This may be due to initiatives such as the BRT and Gautrain.This trend is in line with the GMS policy and should be encouraged going into the future. Given that only 1% of applications (6 applications) fall within the Expansion and Peri-Urban, indicates that the Urban Development Boundary policy is effective. Out of the 6 applications, 1 was for residential and the remainder were for uses which could be institutional. The residential application related to a high density proposal and this trend is not desirable. that people are investing in their properties based on their current land use. Whilst TAS reflects demand predominantly in Consolidation and PTMA areas, BAS reflects that in reality, Building plan applications are more evenly spread between Consolidation areas, Marginalised and PTMA areas. Marginalised areas continue to see very little investment relative to other GMS areas across all uses. This suggests that going into the future, the investment patterns in these areas will rely on continued public investment. uses represent 45% of application in Marginalised which could relate to the significant government investment into these areas. Whilst low density residential uses remain in demand ( 44% of residential applications in the Marginalised GMS area) 31% of applications were for High Density residential uses which is a trend which should be directed more positively towards PTMA(Marginalised) areas to ensure sustainable transportation options for residents as well as a more diverse urban form in these traditionally low density areas. Given that planning applications were only submitted in 28, some of the applications may still be under consideration. The data therefore reflects market demand only and does not give an indication as to how the City is implementing its policies as yet. There were significantly lower levels of BAS applications for Office, and uses than residential uses and this may relate to the fact that many small residential alterations would require Building Plan Applications. This trend indicates Growth Management Strategy: Growth Trends and Development Indicators Report 28/29 19

13 3.4 Detailed Tables for Reference Table 3.5: Land Use Per GMS Area by Town Planning Application Category Subcategory Area No. applications No. properties Properties area Business 2 PTMA (Consolidation) ,729 Business 3 PTMA (Consolidation) ,444 Business 1 PTMA (Consolidation) ,511 Business Business 1 Marginalised ,672 Business 2 Consolidation ,366 Business 3 Consolidation 4 6 1,325,49 Business 1 Consolidation ,689, ,88,246 PTMA (Consolidation) ,633 1 PTMA (Consolidation) ,658 2 Consolidation 1 4 3, ,98 1 PTMA (Consolidation) ,43 1 Consolidation , ,681 Business 4 PTMA (Consolidation) ,758,819 Business 4 Consolidation , ,458,628 Municipal PTMA (Marginalised) 1 2 6,498 Growth Management Strategy: Growth Trends and Development Indicators Report 28/29 2

14 Category Subcategory Area No. applications No. properties Properties area Community Facility PTMA (Marginalised) 2 4 1,33 General PTMA (Consolidation) 1 1 1,735 Government PTMA (Consolidation) ,42 Institutional PTMA (Consolidation) ,218 Municipal PTMA (Consolidation) 2 3 1,368,76 Public Garage PTMA (Consolidation) ,78 Educational PTMA (Consolidation) ,64 Special PTMA (Consolidation) ,468,356 Educational Marginalised ,149 Institutional Marginalised 1 1 7,799 Private Open Space Marginalised ,511 Public Open Space Marginalised ,12 Undetermined Marginalised ,846 Special Marginalised ,21,662 Special Expansion ,118 Educational Consolidation ,937 Municipal Consolidation ,294 Agricultural Consolidation 5 5 1,143,95 Institutional Consolidation ,247 Public Garage Consolidation 5 9 6,596,282 Special Consolidation ,66,935 Agricultural Beyond UDB ,118 Special Beyond UDB 3 3 1,43, ,156,254 Growth Management Strategy: Growth Trends and Development Indicators Report 28/29 21

15 Category Subcategory Area No. applications No. properties Properties area Zoning Unresolved Consolidation , ,4 1 PTMA (Marginalised) 1 1 4,462 3 PTMA (Marginalised) 1 1 2,575 PTMA (Marginalised) ,664 2 PTMA (Consolidation) ,469 4 PTMA (Consolidation) ,175 3 PTMA (Consolidation) ,17 1 PTMA (Consolidation) ,67 Marginalised 1 1 1,971 3 Marginalised ,975 4 Marginalised ,958 1 Marginalised ,76 4 Consolidation ,663,424 2 Consolidation ,45 3 Consolidation ,487,95 1 Consolidation ,221,584 4 Beyond UDB , ,315,514 Growth Management Strategy: Growth Trends and Development Indicators Report 28/29 22