Mortgage Lending: The Bubble, the Burst and Now What?
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- Felix Burke
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1 Mortgage Lending: The Bubble, the Burst and Now What?
2 How did the financial crisis affect members and how have they fared since? In the Bubble... What did the credit health of the population look like? In the Burst, for that Bubble population... How was their credit health impacted? What did the credit health of the population look like? Currently, for that impacted population... How have they recovered? What does their credit health look like? Card, Auto, Personal Finance (non-mortgage) Mortgage 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 2
3 The financial crisis A reminder
4 House price index (indexed to, 2004) The transition from Bubble to Burst is marked by the peak in the house price index Bubble Burst Single-family annual home sales rate (in millions of units) Source: Oxford Economics 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 4
5 Mortgage borrowers currently 60 days or more past due rate Mortgage delinquency and unemployment peaked at the end of the Burst 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Bubble Burst 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Unemployment rate 0% % Source: Delinquency rate: TransUnion depersonalized credit database Unemployment rate: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 5
6 Mortgage Credit Availability Index (indexed to 100 at Q3, 2012) Mortgage availability started to decline around the Burst; balances took a while to catch up 1, Bubble Burst $14 $13 $12 $11 $10 $9 $8 $7 $6 Total single-family mortgage balances (in trillions) Source: Mortgage Credit Availability Index: Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage balances: Federal Reserve 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 6
7 How have Credit Union members fared? Card, Auto, and Personal Finance (non-mortgage) lenders
8 We start by looking at members credit score tier distribution in the Bubble (December 2006) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 24 million 6 M 4 M 4 M 4 M 6 M 24% 17% 17% 17% 25% We follow all members through the Burst to today 42% of members were in Non prime credit tiers versus 36% of non-members VantageScore 3.0 Super Prime >780 Prime Plus Prime Near Prime Subprime < _ 600 0% Bubble (2006) Burst (2009) Current (2014) Source: TransUnion depersonalized credit database 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 8
9 We identified impacted members as those who dropped at least one credit score tier between the Bubble and Burst VantageScore 3.0 VantageScore 3.0 Super Prime >780 Prime Plus Super Prime >780 Prime Plus Prime Near Prime Subprime < _ 600 Bubble (2006) 4.9 million members were impacted Prime Near Prime Subprime < _ 600 Burst (2009) Source: TransUnion depersonalized credit database 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 9
10 In general, higher credit score tiers were impacted less than lower score tiers % of members impacted Impacted Not Impacted 19% 81% 30% 70% 35% 65% 30% 70% Bubble score tier (VantageScore 3.0) Impacted members (in millions) Super Prime Prime Plus Prime Near Prime 43% > % of non-members within Near Prime risk tier were impacted TOTAL = 4.9 Source: TransUnion depersonalized credit database 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 10
11 But overall, members credit score tier distribution did not significantly shift 100% 80% 60% 40% 43% 24 million 6 M 24% 6 M 4 M 17% 4 M 4 M 4 M 17% 4 M 17% 4 M 24 million VantageScore % 17% 16% 16% Super Prime >780 Prime Plus Prime Near Prime Subprime < _ % 6 M 25% 6 M 25% 0% Bubble (2006) Burst (2009) Current (2014) Source: TransUnion depersonalized credit database 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 11
12 Today over half of the impacted (as of the Burst) members have not yet recovered to where they were in the Bubble 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Current (2014) score tier distribution for impacted population 57% 61% 57% 51% VantageScore 3.0 Super Prime >780 Prime Plus Prime Near Prime Subprime < _ % Population still impacted 0% Bubble score tier Super Prime Prime Plus Prime Near Prime Members currently impacted (in millions) TOTAL = 2.7 Source: TransUnion depersonalized credit database 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 12
13 Even though a significant percentage of impacted members have not yet recovered, the overall population has improved 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 43% 24 million 6 M 24% 6 M 25% 7 M 4 M 17% 24 million 4 M 4 M 4 M 17% 4 M 17% 4 M 17% 16% 16% 6 M 25% 6 M 25% 5 M 24 million VantageScore M 4 M 4 M 28% 18% 17% 18% 21% Super Prime >780 Prime Plus Prime Near Prime Subprime < _ 600 0% Bubble (2006) Burst (2009) Current (2014) Source: TransUnion depersonalized credit database 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 13
14 How have consumers fared? Mortgage lenders
15 Number of consumers (in millions) We start by looking at consumers in the Bubble and identify who had a mortgage between the Bubble and Burst % Between the Bubble and Burst: Without a mortgage With a mortgage % We follow all consumers through the Burst and today 0 Bubble (2006) Burst (2009) Current (2014) Source: TransUnion depersonalized credit database 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 15
16 We then identify which of those mortgagors were impacted in the Burst Had a mortgage between the Bubble and Burst Had a mortgage in the Burst that was 60+ days past due OR Lost their mortgage between the Bubble and Burst without paying as agreed upon OR Had a mortgage loan modification between the Bubble and Burst Mortgage closed with 60+ days past due OR Mortgage closed with remark indicating it was closed in a non-satisfactory way (e.g., short sale) 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 16
17 Number of consumers (in millions) 7 million consumers who had a mortgage were impacted in the Burst % Bubble (2006) 72 7 Burst (2009) 92% 8% Current (2014) With a mortgage Not impacted Impacted Source: TransUnion depersonalized credit database 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 17
18 Then we looked at who from the impacted population (mortgagors hurt by the Burst) has recovered by December 2014 Recovered Meet agency underwriting guidelines* Did not recover Do not meet agency underwriting guidelines* * Fannie Mae Selling Guidelines 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 18
19 Agency selling guidelines* (1/2) Time dependent DEROGATORY ITEM OR MORTGAGE TRADE STATUS Foreclosure completed greater than 7 years ago Deed-in lieu of foreclosure, short sale, or mortgage charge-off completed greater than 4 years ago No mortgage tradelines greater than or equal to 60 days past due in the last 12 months BANKRUPTCY Chapter 7 bankruptcy Discharged or Dismissed greater than 4 years ago Chapter 13 bankruptcy Discharged greater than 2 years ago Chapter 13 bankruptcy Dismissed greater than 4 years ago For multiple bankruptcy filings, most recent Discharge or Dismissal is greater than 5 years ago * Fannie Mae Selling Guidelines 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 19
20 Agency selling guidelines* (2/2) Not solely time dependent No unpaid judgments, garnishments, or outstanding liens No tradelines that are currently past due FICO credit score greater than or equal to 620 * Fannie Mae Selling Guidelines 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 20
21 Number of consumers (in millions) 7 million consumers who had a mortgage were impacted in the Burst % Bubble (2006) 72 Burst (2009) 92% 7 8% % Current (2014) 82% With a mortgage Not impacted Impacted Recovered Not Recovered Source: TransUnion depersonalized credit database 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 21
22 Not solely time dependent criteria For those who didn t recover (do not meet agency selling guidelines) yet, we estimate when they will One conservative estimation approach Time dependent criteria Determine when enough time has elapsed to meet the criteria Unpaid judgements, garnishments, or outstanding liens Assume they don t get paid and will roll off the credit report 7 years after they first appear Tradelines past due If tradeline is 30 days past due, assume consumer will cure the following month If tradeline is 60+ days past due, assume it will roll to charge-off Credit score If credit score was <620 in the Bubble (2006) and Currently (2014), assume it will not reach 620 going forward* If credit score was >620 in the Bubble (2006), assume it will reach >620 when all other criteria are satisfied Exception: if the consumer has a charge-off, we assume their score will rise to months after charge-off first appeared *Conservative approach to estimate number of consumers that might not be able to re-enter the mortgage market Note: VantageScore 3.0 used as consumer credit score 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 22
23 Estimation illustration 1 Consumer A ILLUSTRATIVE 2006 Credit Score: > Credit Score: 700 Foreclosure Date: Aug years passed Ch 7 BK Discharge Date: None Non-mortgage Charge-off Date: None Aug 2009: Foreclosure process initiated Aug 2016: Foreclosure recovered from Assume to be agency eligible Dec 2006: Mortgage originated Feb 2011: Foreclosure collateral sold TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 23
24 Estimation illustration 2 ILLUSTRATIVE Consumer B 2006 Credit Score: > Credit Score: 610 Foreclosure Date: None Ch 7 BK Discharge Date: Aug 2009 Non-mortgage Charge-off Date: May 2013 Aug 2009: Ch 7 Bankruptcy discharge 4 years passed May 2013: Non-mortgage charge-off reported Aug 2013: Ch 7 Bankruptcy recovered from 2 years passed May 2015: Non-mortgage charge-off recovered from Dec 2008: Ch 7 Bankruptcy filed Assume to be agency eligible TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 24
25 Over the next 6 years, the number of consumers recovering could nearly double Recovered Not Recovered Consumers (in millions) Current (2014) Consumers newly meeting agency telling guidelines (in millions) > _ million (46%) consumers with credit scores below 620 in the Bubble (2006) Source: TransUnion depersonalized credit database 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 25
26 Recovered and not-yet-recovered consumers represent a material purchase and refinance opportunity Recovered Potential current opportunity Not Recovered Consumers (in millions) % 42% Purchase Refinance Currently Without a mortgage 1.2 With a mortgage 5.7 Current (2014) Potential opportunity as consumers recover Mostly purchase (with limited refinance for consumers with healthy loan modifications) Source: TransUnion depersonalized credit database 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 26
27 You can use these insights to explore a number of potential applications 1. Improve or create triggers/prescreen programs to identify when impacted consumers qualify, so you can tailor collateral addressing their journey (i.e., mortgagor impacted recovered) and potential concerns about re-entering the mortgage market after their experiences 2. Identify impacted consumers likely to recover soon in your existing credit education programs; educate them on re-entering the mortgage space; this could generate good will for when the consumer fully recovers and is deciding with whom to book a mortgage 3. Inform operations and marketing capacity/budgeting planning 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 27
28 Mortgage lenders Card, Auto, Personal Finance lenders Summary of key findings The Bubble and Burst were rough By the end of the Burst: ~21% (~4.9MM) of members were impacted (dropped at least one credit score tier) But the population s overall credit score tier distribution was fairly similar to what it looked like in the Bubble By end of 2014: ~55% (~2.7MM) of those impacted by the Burst were still impacted But, the population s overall credit-score tier distribution had generally improved, with many consumers migrating to Prime and better By the end of the Burst, ~8% (~7MM) of all mortgagors were impacted By end of 2014: ~82% (~5.7MM) of those impacted were still impacted Which means ~1.2MM impacted consumers had recovered with another ~2.5MM roughly estimated to recover over the next 6 years This is potential future origination volume (mostly purchase) and there seems to be an opportunity to identify and craft specific recovered messaging/offerings to these former mortgagors (by working with TransUnion) 2015 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved 28
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