Assessment and Review under a 2015 Climate Change Agreement

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1 Assessment and Review under a 2015 Climate Change Agreement Dr Harro van Asselt (SEI) Håkon Sælen (CICERO) Pieter Pauw (DIE) Report Launch Event, SEI, Stockholm, 25 March 2015

2 The road to Paris Durban 2011 Launch of ADP negotiations Warsaw 2013 Call for INDCs Lima 2014 Further information on INDCs March 2015 First INDCs submitted

3 What are INDCs? European Union Target At least 40% by % by % by 2025 Switzerland Scope Economy-wide (incl. LULUCF) Economy-wide (incl. LULUCF) Base year Offsets No Yes US: 26-28% by 2025 (below 2005 levels) China: Peak CO 2 emissions around 2030; 20% of energy supply from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030 => May also include adaptation component

4 When are INDCs expected? Source: NewClimate Institute

5 Why assessment and review? Adequacy/Effectiveness Fairness Credibility Transparency Foundations of international cooperation on climate change Accountability

6 Types of assessment and review Individual Collective A&R of contribution Ex ante A&R of adequacy Ex ante A&R of implementation Time A&R of implementation A&R of compliance Ex post A&R of effectiveness Ex post

7 Not reinventing the wheel (1) Review of National Communications and inventories Emissions trends and policies already reviewed Frequent reviews are resource-intensive Review process helps build expert capacity Technical review of Kyoto Protocol reports Expert review process can facilitate compliance Reviews require large pool of experts and resources IAR/ICA Streamlining review processes Combination of expert and multilateral reviews Differential treatment for some Parties (LDCs/SIDS) review Experience with review process for overall adequacy

8 Not reinventing the wheel (2) Trade Policy Review (WTO) Link frequency of reviews to specific criteria (% share of world trade) Group reviews possible Universal Periodic Review (Human Rights Council) Useful input from non-governmental stakeholders Subsequent reviews focus on implementation of outcomes of previous cycle Funding to help countries participate and implement recommendations Fall-back clause for persistent non-cooperation Implementation Review (Montreal Protocol) Link between review outcomes and support The stick of trade measures

9 What should be reviewed? Mitigation-related information Emissions data Policies and measures Achievement of targets Adaptation-related information Adaptation activities Adaptation needs Information on means of implementation Financial contributions Finance needs Technology transfer Existing review processes focus on mitigation, but also include means of implementation (e.g. IAR) Review of means of implementation priority for some developing countries Reviewing more information may require more resources

10 Should A&R be differentiated (and if so, how)? Type of differentiation By type of contribution By Party/groups of Parties Means of differentiation Access to funding for preparation of review Organization of review process (e.g. group reviews) Frequency of review Outcomes of review process Differentiation can be done for reasons of equity and pragmatism Tradeoff between transparency and administrative efficiency

11 Review against which criteria? Substantive Ambition Adequacy Fairness/Equity Procedural Transparency Accuracy Comparability Completeness Consistency Timeliness Political feasibility

12 When should A&R be carried out? Ex ante review On a rolling basis After submission of certain number of INDCs Periodically, coinciding with submission of new INDCs Implementation review Periodically, in line with existing MRV processes Periodically, through a new process Review of compliance After the end of a contribution cycle Continuously Aggregate assessment Periodically, in line with review

13 Organization of future ex ante A&R Input Assessment and review Output -INDCs and supporting information -Information from existing review processes -Scientific information UNFCCC Secretariat Other Parties Observers Technical panel Ministerial SBSTA/SBI SCF/TEC -Compilation -Record -Expert reports -COP outputs -Adjustments -Informal consultations among Parties -Informal assessment by observers

14 Ratcheting up ambition through A&R Inside A&R process Recommendations for (upward) adjustment or more information Periodic review of adequacy against global goal Outside A&R process Global long-term goal Regular negotiating cycle Contribution floor/no contribution ceiling Procedural safeguards against backsliding

15 Key messages (1) A&R essential for trust-building and international cooperation, and can help raise ambition and enhance fairness A&R should cover at least mitigation contribution; but a review process for means of implementation could help forge consensus A&R should cover all Parties; but differentiation can be both fair and practical The role of non-state actors in review needs to be clarified and enhanced if possible, particularly in the absence of a formal ex ante review

16 Key messages (2) Not all issues need addressing in Paris, but the following would be useful: A decision establishing A&R for the post-2020 period Clarify scope of review Clarify types of differentiation Clarify timing of review Indication of the role for non-state actors in review

17 Tack så mycket! %3A797336&dswid=1030

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