South African Solar Energy Perspectives. 6 December 2011

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1 South African Solar Energy Perspectives 6 December

2 Agenda2 Solar Energy in South African Context What are our most attractive solar possibilities Barriers to deploying various solar technologies How we intend to overcome the barriers Conclusions 2

3 South African Solar Resource South Africa s solar resource is amongst the best in the world, making it an ideal location for solar power generation with Northern Cape highlighted with highest solar irradiation. 3

4 Agenda2 Solar Energy in South African Context What are our most attractive solar possibilities Barriers to deploying various solar technologies How we intend to overcome the barriers Conclusions 4

5 (1) Solar Aspiration in the IRP Additional new capacity (without committed) in GW 17,8 8,4 Solar PV 8,4 Wind CSP Coal Nuclear Hydro Gas Committed new builds Existing fleet (2010) 9,8 0,0 0,0 0,0 1,0 1,0 35,9 1,8 2,1 0,0 2,4 0,0 Slide 5

6 (2) Access to Energy Solar Home Systems The above graph highlights the challenge of grid-based energy access EC and KZN are lagging behind partly because of the terrain and difficulty in accessing rural areas. 6

7 ,050 1,150 1,300 1,500 1,800 2,250 2,750 3,500 4,500 5,500 6,500 7,500 8,500 9,500 10,500 11,500 13,000 15,000 18,000 22,500 27,500 35,000 50,000 Number of households (3) Solar Water Heating Market Segments 1,000, , ,000 Households number vs Income levels Stove based water heating Middle income geysers Market 6.32 million Market 2.17 million Poor/low/medium income market Income R R16 000/month Upper income geysers Market 1.38 million Income > R16 000/month 700, , , , , , ,000 0 No electricity Market 1.24 million Poor/low income market Poor/Low income geysers Market 1.38 million Income < R 6 000/month Indigent income market Monthly income Rands Non Electrified housholds Electrified without a geyser Electrified with a geyser

8 (4) Solar Park Concept - Potential Areas A 5 GW Solar Park would require between 15,000 and 19,000 hectares of land. This land should be flat, have a high solar index, and be close to critical infrastructure e.g. transmission networks, roads and water sources and the potential sites are marked with yellow below: Purple represents land within 50 km of the Orange River 8

9 Agenda2 Solar Energy in South African Context What are our most attractive solar possibilities Barriers to deploying various solar technologies How we intend to overcome the barriers Conclusions 9

10 Barriers to solar efforts regulations, policies, incentives, financing Public acceptance of some technologies (e.g. relating to land access, NIMBY) High cost of generation and impact on tariff Cost recovery concerns of regulated utility Environmental approvals and other permits social impact assessment Sustainability of incentive rational and easy to access

11 Barriers to solar efforts regulations, policies, incentives, financing Inadequate data and information on resource base Transmission/distribution access and constraints Network operability Local lenders willingness to take new risks Technical capacity and experience

12 Agenda2 Solar Energy in South African Context What are our most attractive solar possibilities Barriers to deploying various solar technologies How we intend to overcome the barriers Conclusions 12

13 What is being done to promote solar technologies? Evaluation and indication of preference of technology in IRP Demonstration plant for Solar Park Concept plus Eskom CSP Public consultation and education on SWH and SHS Introduction of RE IPP Bidding Programme Regulatory revamp, including Institutional (Independent System and Market Operator)

14 Levelised costs (R/MWh) Learning rates will reduce future costs of solar technologies CSP Parabolic Trough PV Crystalline PV Thin Film CSP Central Receiver Biomass (bagasse) Wind Nuclear

15 Agenda2 Solar Energy in South African Context What are our most attractive solar possibilities Barriers to deploying various solar technologies How we intend to overcome the barriers Conclusions 15

16 Conclusion Clear business case for solar energy in South Africa Need to cut into the value chain and localize technologies Financing is critical given the upward pressure on tariffs

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