Strategic Intelligence Analysis Fall 2014

Transcription

1 France: Implementing New Counterterrorism Strategies The country of France is facing a national crisis as lone-wolf terrorist attacks continue to cause conflict for policy makers and intelligence agents who are creating new counterterrorism strategies. The details of France s new counterterrorism strategies include combatting online Jihadist propaganda, improving monitoring technology, and increasing new police intelligence agents. Online Jihadist Propaganda The French government is now allowed without a court order to block websites and online forums that are suspicious of promoting terrorism ideals or radicalization. - French Intelligence agents are collaborating with European and other international countries to fend off against online terrorism produced by ISIS or al-qaeda. - The French government has employed nearly fifty military experts since January 2015 to observe social media sites for Jihadist extremism and propaganda. France is continuing to combat online jihadist activity as part of its counterterrorism strategy. It is likely that France will work with the United States to create more efficient means of fighting online terrorism. Improving Monitoring Technology The threat of foreign jihadist travelling into the country has France on high alert as intelligence experts implement new surveillance technology at the border and around airlines. - Airline passengers in France can now have their electronic devices scanned and detected if they pose a potential threat. - French airlines and borders will now inform government authorities of individuals leaving or entering the country as a method of detecting foreign fighters. New technology implementations in French airports and border control have given France an upper edge in detecting jihadists travelling into the country. Increasing New Intelligence Agents The January jihadist attacks in France have policy makers increasing the amount of intelligence agents in the country which will provide for improved information gathering on terrorist groups million euros ($490 million) will be utilized by France over the course of three years for intelligence services. - A reported 2,600 intelligence agents, who specialize in counterterrorism, are being hired by the French government. It is likely that the new intelligence agents hired by France will crack down on jihadist activity throughout the country since counterterrorism is being focused upon by policy makers. We access that the new counterterrorism strategies being carried out by France will decrease the amount of jihadist activity both online and within the country. French policymakers will continue to fund intelligence services as a means of collecting and analyzing information on terrorist groups to mitigate attacks on French infrastructures. Analyst: Cody Scholar 1

2 North Korea: Current Nuclear Situation and Mounting Hostilities According to United States research institute, John Hopkins University in Washington D.C., it appears North Korea may be attempting to restart its 5-megawatt Plutonium Production Reactor at the Yongbyon nuclear facility. This imminent situation is a national security threat to the United States and the rest of Asia due to the evident restart of the nuclear reactor, the expansion of North Korea s nuclear arsenal, and current United States relations with the socialist-state. Evidence of the Reactor s Restart After being closed for nearly five months, there appears to be a clear indication that the main nuclear bomb s fuel reactor at the Yongbyon facility has been restarted. - Increased snow melt on the roof of the reactor and turbine buildings indicates increased activity. - Observation of the release of steam from the reactor, causing hot water to be leaked into a nearby river and melting the ice in the waterway also indicates increased activity. - The roadways entering the facility have been cleared of snow and ice. It is anticipated that North Korea has restarted the facility in order to produce plutonium by reprocessing spent nuclear fuel. With approximately a dozen of nuclear weapons on hand already, North Korea may be able to double that number within the next two to three years. Expansion of North Korea s Nuclear Arsenal The apparent progression of North Korea s nuclear program and Pyongyang s ever increasing reliance on the weapon for survival of its state has dampened the possibility of a denuclearized Korean peninsula. - More nuclear testing increases the possibility of miscalculations or errors, which could result in detrimental effects for surrounding countries. - A surplus of nuclear resources may encourage North Korea to sell the bomb-making materials or even the weapons themselves to other countries. With all sides considered, the situation in North Korea will continue to isolate the country and cause tension with United States foreign relations. Pyongyang will retain its nuclear weapons while continuing to develop the materials to build and add to their arsenal. United States Relations with North Korea Growing aggression between the United States and North Korea has escalated within recent months and new sanctions against the country have been called hostile by North Korean officials. - The cyberattack against Sony has been traced back to North Korea. The attack occurred during the release of the movie The Interview, which portrays two men on a mission from the CIA to assassinate Dictator Kim Jung-un. - Growing nuclear capabilities in North Korea has many United States officials apprehensive. - New sanctions against North Korea prohibit their government leaders from accessing property and entering the United States. The pursuit to stifle North Korea has only increased hostilities with the United States, and the country will continue to pose a national security and foreign policy threat to America. North Korea appears to be several years away from being able to position their nuclear devices onto smaller warheads; furthermore, the bombs are approximately half the yield of the Hiroshima nuclear device. Therefore, the situation does not appear to be an imminent threat to the mainland United States within the next few years, but the nuclear state must be monitored for the sake of the rest of Asia. Analyst: Daniel Cameron Faculty Advisor: Dr. David H.Gray 2

3 Yemen on the Brink of a Civil War In recent months, there has been an intense politically-fueled conflict in Yemen that has the possibility of escalating into a civil war. Yemen's al-houthi rebels have capitalized on their territorial gains and are now threatening to collapse the Sunni-run government. The Shiite rebel group has reverted to violence and protests to push their disapproval for President Abd Rabboh Mansour Hadi's regime. The al-houthis seek to overturn an unpopular fuel subsidy cut, dissolve the Cabinet led by Prime Minister Mohammed Basindwa, which will hinder U.S. counter-terrorism efforts. The quarrel began in May 2014 because the International Monetary Fund had mandated fuel subsidy cuts as a precondition for a much-needed loan to Yemen. Unpopular cuts to fuel subsidies, which had provided the initial motivation for al-houthi demonstrations. Yemenis, already taxed by the country s poor economic conditions, protested. The cuts went into effect in August and increased fuel prices by 90 percent. These demonstrations led to al-houthi rebels seizing power through force in Yemen s capital Sana a, which created a power vacuum throughout the country. Yemeni President Abd Rabboh Mansour Hadi's government had little choice but to sign a U.N.-brokered deal with the Shiite rebels on September 21 due to clashes that left more than 150 dead between September 18 and 20, Under the terms of the agreement, Hadi would step down and be replaced by a neutral candidate. Hadi is considered a political rival of the al-houthis and was seen as being corrupt. The hostile takeover of Sana a and the removal of Hadi has seen resistance from different groups in Yemen, particularly in the south, where there's a long-running secessionist movement. As Iran and Saudi Arabia vie for influence in states such as Syria, Ira, and Lebanon, the al-houthi role in Yemen will be an increasingly important bargaining chip. Also, al-qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula continues to thrive in the disenfranchised state. The al-houthi takeover is another blowback of US policy in the region, and it will worsen ongoing challenges with the fight against terrorism. The exit of Hadi leaves the United States without a key ally in its fight against terror. AQAP has been able to thrive as the state's remit across the country has collapsed. February 10, 2015 the U.S. Embassy in Yemen closed and evacuated its staff because of the political crisis and security concerns in the country. The U.S. Embassy closure will hinder U.S. intelligence and counter-terrorism efforts in a country where AQAP has increased its role in the fighting. We assess that Yemen s current unrest poses a significant threat to the stability of the country and U.S. counter-terrorism measures; the al-houthi s seek to overturn an unpopular fuel subsidy cut and dissolve the Cabinet led by President Abd Rabboh Mansour Hadi's regime. The removal of President Hadi has created a gap for U.S. counter-terrorism and intelligence efforts without its key ally in its fight against AQAP. A shift in the balance of power nationally and regionally will have global repercussions as alliances shift and new threats emerge. It is likely that repercussions of the breakdown in Yemen will echo not only within their borders, but also across the region. Analyst: Jason French Faculty Advisor: Dr. David H.Gray 3

4 Boko Haram: Implications of an Allegiance with ISIL On 7 March 2015, Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau released a video affirming the group s allegiance to the Islamic State and its leader Abu Bakr al-baghdadi. The implications of this action include an increase in international legitimacy, a symbiotic relationship with the Islamic State, and a spark in intercontinental expansion for the Islamic State. Boko Haram s decision to align itself with the Islamic State allows it to gain more international legitimacy. --Boko Haram has gained prestige among Islamic State supporters after announcing its allegiance to the group. --By gaining more international recognition, Boko Haram is receiving more new recruits and access to weapons and munitions, the two most significant areas where the group was lacking before the alliance. It is likely that Boko Haram will continue to receive more media attention, recruitment, arms, and funds if it continues to make public statements aligning itself with the Islamic State. Boko Haram s recent alliance with the Islamic State has created a symbiotic relationship between the two terrorist organizations. --Boko Haram will receive assistance with its funding, recruiting, and logistics, as well as guidance in media warfare and propaganda. --The Islamic State will receive more international legitimacy and a strong foothold in western and central Africa, furthering its goal of a worldwide Islamic caliphate. It is likely that the groups will continue to align themselves more closely as long as both significantly benefit from the other s resources. As a result of its new alliance with Boko Haram, the Islamic State has taken its first step in global expansion outside of the Middle East. --With this alliance, the Islamic State has received its first major foothold in Africa beyond small terror cells and individual loyalties to the group. --Africa is the ideal setting for the Islamic State to expand because of its several weak and failing states and its abundance of radical Jihadis. It is likely that the Islamic State will use its alliance with Boko Haram to expand its influence into western and central Africa to further its goal of a global Islamic state. We assess that this new alliance between Boko Haram and the Islamic State is a strategic gain for both groups that they will utilize to their full advantage. The Islamic State will likely fund Boko Haram operations in Africa until it has greater control in the Middle East and possesses the required resources to physically expand into Africa. Furthermore, we expect that other regional Islamic terrorist organizations, such as Ansaru, AQIM, and al-shabaab, will join the alliance and create a stronger Islamic opposition in Africa. It is likely that this coalition will continue to overpower local civilizations and expand its influence in the region without significant military intervention from the United States and the international community. Analyst: Benjamin York Faculty Advisor: Dr. David H.Gray 4

5 Iran: The Latin America Connection For decades, Iran has been seeking ways to undermine the U.S., avoid sanctions and spread extremism throughout the world. Over the last decade, Iran has rapidly expanded its footprint in Latin America through trade and technical assistance, military cooperation, and by capitalizing on culture and shared ideas. Iran is undermining U.S. influence and interests in Latin America by targeting left leaning countries through lucrative trade deals, military and intelligence operations, and subversion. Iran has sought to strengthen and develop economic ties with Latin America since the early 2000s. -- Venezuelan trade with Iran grew from under a million dollars in 2004 to 80 million in Ecuador s trade with Iran jumped from 6 million dollars in 2007 to 200 million in Iran will likely increase trade with left leaning countries to establish a foothold and degrade U.S. influence in the region. Iran s military activities have greatly expanded in the last decade. They have operatives working in all Latin American nations and are continuing to fund, train and equip terrorist groups in preparation to conduct attacks Iranian Quds Force members have taught asymmetric warfare courses in Ecuador -- An Iranian operative attempted to hire a Mexican drug cartel to conduct the assassination of the Saudi Ambassador in D.C. in Bolivia opened a 1.6 million dollar military training facility financed by Iran to replace U.S. Military educational programs in Latin America. Iran will likely use military alliances and bases to covertly infiltrate Quds Forces and intelligence operatives in Latin America and the U.S. Additionally, it is highly probable that increased numbers of terrorist groups, such as Hezbollah, will receive training in insurgent tactics and then be sent into pro-u.s. countries in the region to conduct offensive and subversion operations. Iran covertly works through cultural centers and multimedia to influence political leadership, target disenfranchised individuals or groups, and identify future Iranian supporters. -- As of 2015, Iran has funded and built over 80 religious/cultural centers in the region. -- Iran secured collaboration for media projects with Venezuela in 2004, Bolivia in 2008 and Cuba in These programs are targeted at undermining U.S. interests. Iran will work through cultural centers in pro-u.s. countries to slowly pacify the local population and spread anti-u.s. sentiments. Iran will likely attempt to covertly recruit, and radicalize individuals, as well as identify and select key individuals to attend specialized training in Iran. Furthermore, they will use propaganda to attack the U.S. presence and influence throughout the region. Iran is seeking links with authoritarian and anti-u.s. leaders in order to drive a wedge between the U.S. and its Latina American neighbors. We expect Iranian operations in Latin America to continue to increase, which will likely result in reduced trade relations and the slow destabilization of pro-u.s. countries. It is unlikely that Iran will conduct offensive operations against the U.S., besides cyber-attacks and small scale terrorist strikes. The U.S. must increase intelligence operations in these areas in order to identify Iranian operations and mitigate there effects. U.S. AID should be maximized to win over the poverty stricken populations in order to reduce Iranian cultural influence. The State Department must identify ways to reengage these peripheral governments in order to pull them away from Iranian prospects. Analyst: Joshua Brandon Faculty Advisor: Dr. David H.Gray 5

6 Afghanistan: Stability Requires Competent Afghan Security Force Presence, Strategic U.S. Support The calculus in Afghanistan is complicated. Afghan security forces are riddled with internal problems, Islamic State (IS) militants have emerged as an increasing threat in the region, and public support is waning for continued U.S. funding of the mission. This complex problem set requires continued but carefully allotted U.S. fiscal support or devastating political, economic, and security losses may result. A Strong Afghan Security Force Equals a Weaker Insurgency: According to U.S. Military officials, Afghan forces are plagued by a host of issues, including desertions, illiteracy, sub-par management and intelligence capabilities, a factious relationship between the police and Afghan National Army, and mass casualties: - According to Afghan Defense and Interior Ministries, since 2003, Afghan police fatalities have amounted to 13,683, and Afghan military fatalities, 6, The U.S. has been significantly impacted: 2,342 Americans have died in Afghan war. Afghan forces lead the fight, but require continued U.S. support. Lack thereof will likely result in loss of Afghan and U.S. life, a strengthening insurgency especially in less urbanized environments and threaten the ability of Afghans to hold key cities. An Emboldened IS: IS militants pose a continued threat in Afghanistan, and may provide resources such as weaponry and financial backing that could incite violence among insurgents seeking to divorce themselves from the Taliban. - Afghan and U.S. officials claim some Afghan militants have rebranded themselves with IS; even pitted themselves against Taliban fighters. - Army Gen. John Campbell, current U.S. commander in Afghanistan, informed a congressional panel that Afghans repeatedly ask the U.S. for close air support, which has been crucial in their ability to fend off Taliban fighters battling to capture territory. - Afghan Air Force, with about 100 aircraft, is expected to receive 20 light-attack aircraft for close air support, counterinsurgency, and ISR, but more than half aren't slated to arrive until 2017 and The Afghan military infrastructure will benefit from incoming hardware, providing an added impetus for the U.S. to continue its training, advising, and assistance mission in Afghanistan until at least Financial Investment: Key stakeholders in the funding of the Afghan war include the Taliban, U.S. taxpayers, and the U.S. Congress, all of whom have competed ruthlessly in a 14-year fiscal marathon. - Congress appropriated more than $60 billion to build, equip, train, and sustain the Afghan forces, and the Defense Department requested an additional $3.8 billion for fiscal To date, $753.3 billion has been allocated for the war since 2001, including $89.1 billion in Lawmakers must consider the cost benefit analysis of reducing spending and a deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan, which would likely result from a less enthusiastic fiscal commitment in the region. Public support has steadily waned for this war, and the Obama administration has pledged to end this protracted campaign. These pressures must be tempered by the reality of the situation on the ground. Without adequate U.S. resources, the Afghan security forces risk deteriorating, as a stronger insurgency and IS influence continue to emerge in this vulnerable space. A sharp decrease in funding will likely only depreciate the value of the investment in Afghanistan to date. Analyst: Jessica Bruckert 6

7 The Expansion of the Islamic State The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) morphed from al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), in an effort to obtain more support from other Islamic radicals. The Islamic State has the intention of enacting a caliphate in the region of Iraq and neighboring states by way of conducting terrorist attacks and organized violence throughout their expansion. It is not foreseeable that the Islamic State will cease their expansions and operations any time soon, since they are only gaining momentum and controlling more territory as the weeks go by. The severity of threat is high in comparison with other radical groups, because of the Islamic State has grown exponentially within the last year and have conducted many acts of mass violence that have shaken the governmental foundation in Iraq. Genocide: The Islamic State s attempt to completely remove the Yazidi ethnic group from Iraq. - United Nations human rights investigators believe that the Islamic State has committed acts of attempted genocide. - The Islamic State not only attacks individuals that have western ties, but also Muslims whom do not identify with the strict ideology of the caliphate. Although the Islamic State was not successful in eradicating the Yazidi group, it is likely that they will continue their efforts to push the Yazidi group out of the region. Violence: With the growth of the Islamic State both civilian and security forces casualties continues to grow. - Syrian casualties inflicted by the war with ISIS have grown to be more than 210,000 individuals. - In 2014, the civilian death toll doubled in Iraq to be more than 17,000 people due to IS operations. - IS has conducted several public executions of more than four different countries civilians. Even with international forces being present in Iraq, it is not likely that the Islamic State will cease attacks against civilians and security forces. Expansion: The Islamic State has grown and continues to expand across the region and into other parts of the world. - The IS extremist group has central control over Iraq and holds a large presence in Syria. - IS has claimed all attacks in parts of Afghanistan, Yemen, and in Europe. - IS has activated orders to supporter all over the globe to carry out targeted strikes on selected military and civilian individuals. - Supporters from over 30 countries have left their home state to join the Islamic State. It is likely that without a serious security commitment from the international community that the Islamic State will spread to other parts of the Middle East, such as Turkey, Jordan, and possibly Afghanistan. The severity of the threat that the Islamic State presents is not to be taken lightly. Many of the treats that the Islamic State have issued have been carried out, which makes their threats and attacks very credible. International and national security policies and courses of action should implement strict and focused efforts to diminish the Islamic State s actions, because the situation of the Islamic State expanding is not likely to cease any time soon. I anticipate that the attacks and mass violence that the Islamic State to increase exponentially due to their increasing popularity and support from outside and supporting extremist groups, such as Al Qaeda, the Taliban, Al-Shabaab, and Boko Haram. Analyst: Joseph Jacob Hinton Faculty Advisor: Dr. David H.Gray 7

8 Yemen: The New Middle Eastern Crisis Over the past couple of months, Yemen has fallen into a state of crisis, as Houthi militants have seized the presidential palace and forced top government officials to resign. The situation in Yemen is likely to fall into a civil war provided the Houthi s remain unchecked, international powers do not intervene, and the government remains disposed. Houthi s Remain Unchecked: The Houthi militants, consisting of Shiite Muslims, began protesting and spreading violence in September 2014, where they clashed with security forces while calling for the government, consisting of a majority Sunni, to step down. Houthi s have continued to rule the country in the absence of the government, attempting to capture former President Hadi. Houthi s have captured a Yemeni air base formerly used by American forces. It is likely that the Houthi s will remain unchecked without a formative resistance against them. International forces could possibly provide a deterrent. International Intervention: While a UN brokered ceasefire between the Houthis and the government failed to resolve the crisis before President Hadi was ousted from power, he is currently calling the UN Security Council to back military action. President Hadi wrote a letter requesting a resolution authorizing immediate support for the legitimate authority by all means against the advancing rebels. Asked the UN Security Council to authorize willing countries that wish to help Yemen to provide immediate support for the legitimate authority by all means and measures to protect Yemen and deter the Houthi aggression. UN will likely not get involved given the relative failure of the force it sent previously. However, the potential for an intervention by Saudi Arabia and surrounding countries is likely. Government Remains Disposed: As of now, President Hadi is on the run from Houthi forces after they closed in on his safe house in the southern city of Aden. He is currently backed by military and police loyalists, and by militia known as the Popular Resistance Committees, who are trying to fight back against the rebels. Some believe he has fled the country during the most recent attacks, however this cannot be confirmed. The resumption of power by President Hadi is not necessary for peace, however some form of legitimate government must be imposed. As of now, the Presidents forces are fighting a losing battle. It is not likely that President Hadi s forces will prevail on their own. We assess that the situation in Yemen is likely to deteriorate into a civil war. Outside intervention could be a significant factor moving forward. It will be important to monitor the potential for UN or neighboring countries to intervene in support of President Hadi. Currently, Hadi s forces are struggling against the Houthi, who are advancing into the south of Yemen. It is likely the Houthi will capture and execute President Hadi unless he receives help. Analyst: Ross Hagan 8

9 The Arab League Joint Military Force: A Game Changer On March 26th, 2015, the Arab League announced plans for the formation of a joint military force, tasked with ensuring the security of member states. In its current stages, the plan is far from complete, but is moving forward. The creation of the joint military force is largely seen as a move to combat ISIS and growing instability in Yemen. The largely Sunni Arab League also views the joint military force as a counter to growing Iranian influence. There are several key issues that will determine the newly announced force's impact. Restrictions: The restrictions placed on the League's military action and its adherence to these restrictions will play in role in the force's influence. - The League announced that the force would require UN Security Council authorization before taking military action. - However, if a state is attacked, it need only notify the Security Council before taking unilateral or collective action. With the current threat of ISIS and the deteriorating situation in Yemen, it is probable the Arab League Force will enjoy loose restrictions. This will most likely take the form of a broad interpretation of what constitutes an "attack" on a member state. Cooperation: The announcement on March 26th failed to clarify the extent to which member states' militaries would be cooperating in the joint force. Current joint operations against ISIS and in Yemen suggest a high degree of cooperation is possible. The threat represented by ISIS will likely push the Arab League towards a more integrated joint force. The presence of a common enemy in ISIS will diminish, but not eliminate, protests against such an integration. Effectiveness: The effectiveness of this joint force will play a significant role in determining its impact on the Middle East. - Joint action against ISIS and in Yemen represents an opportunity for the Arab League force to gain valuable experience and determine the most effective organizational structure. - Operations against the Houthi rebels in Yemen would demonstrate the force's ability to counter Iran. Successful operations in Yemen and against ISIS will likely cement the Arab League's force as a significant actor in the Middle East. At the same time, will cast a poor light on the force, create dissatisfaction among member states, and could possibly lead to abandonment of a joint force altogether. We assess that a highly integrated, loosely restricted, and successful Arab League joint force will change the balance of power in the Middle East. Such a force will be able to counter Iranian influence, either by direct military action against Iranian backed agents or through deterrence. The ability of the Arab League force to impact the Middle East will mostly depend on its success in operations against ISIS and in Yemen. If the force is not successful, Iran will not view it as a deterrent to Iranian operations. Analyst: Brian Lim 9

10 Boko Haram: Unstable Nigeria Unable to Properly Defend Against Boko Haram Nigeria is not a country that has ever known peace, and therefore they have never known stability. Being divided in religion, politics and culture, Nigeria has been susceptible to the actions of groups like Boko Haram since its creation in the early 20 th century. The instability will continue to grow as decreasing oil values leaves Nigeria in a vulnerable state considering their dependence on oil exports. Their current elections will also hold them exposed to violent outbreaks. These factors leave Nigeria too unstable to focus their attention on the attacks of Boko Haram, leaving them able to further their destruction. Boko Haram: Their continued freedom in Nigeria has given them the ability to grow and stabilize their operations. According to the 2015 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, Boko Haram will likely have the power to solidify their control in Nigeria as well as expand their control into neighboring countries. The continuation of Boko Haram power could lead them to have the resources to take more legitimate control over these countries and to use those resources in other susceptible areas of the world. It is expected that Boko Haram will gain more legitimate use of the resources in Nigeria, and in turn they will expand into the surrounding areas outside of Nigeria. Alignment with ISIS: Earlier in March 2015, Boko Haram pledged allegiance to the Islamic State, or ISIS, thereby proving itself as a member of the global Jihadist movement. This seems to have been a strategic move in order to gain legitimacy in the global sphere as well as to gain publicity for the movement. These terrorist groups have now become large threats to a significant part of Africa and the Middle East, affecting not only those direct areas, but many of the surrounding areas as well as the overall global community. Boko Haram and the global Jihadist movement are likely to continue growing in power and resources, meaning that it is also expected for the United States to attempt to ward off the threat of these terrorist groups in areas that are already largely affected by providing a military presence in these areas. With the global Jihadist movement on the rise and targeting countries with unstable governments, it is anticipated that they will continue to grow in power over large regions and therefore expand their control and threat to the global community. Analyst: Amy Whitman 10

11 Columbia: The Struggle of Attaining Peace with the FARC Columbia s oldest and largest living rebel group, Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), has been engaged in a drug trafficking and an armed conflict with the country s government for the past fifty years. Peace talks between the Columbian government and the FARC began in late 2012 and they are a crucial piece to ending the violence between the two groups. However, due to wealth primarily obtained from the cocaine trade, the political influence of the FARC, and the struggle of convincing Columbian citizens to support to peace agreements will be three major hurdles the government of Columbia must overcome in order to attain a concord. Illicit Wealth The FARC is deeply involved in the growth, manufacturing, distribution of cocaine throughout the country of Columbia. -The rebel group generate significant revenues from cocaine production. -The FARC earns upwards of $1 billion per year just from their drug trafficking industry. -A predicted 350 metric tons of cocaine was produced within Columbia last year alone. We predict that the FARC will continue to control the cocaine trade within Columbia, keeping the country as one of the main producers of the drug within the world. Political Influence The FARC asserts their influence across several municipalities throughout Columbia by kidnapping political leaders and other members of administration in order to enforce their ideologies and power. -Once the FARC attains control of an area, the group then has oversight of the budget and resource administration. -The FARC s political influence allows for strong economic leverage to control certain industries and this leads to increased profits. The government of Columbia has considered granting amnesty to FARC leaders, allowing them to have some sort of power within the political institution; however, this situation would likely fail due to corruption. Support of Columbian Citizens Due to a recent policy passed by the government, the Columbian citizens will be required to vote upon the finalized peace deal between the Columbian government and FARC. -The Columbian conflict has resulted in over 200,000 deaths, many that were innocent citizens, and almost five million refugees who have been forced to flee their homes. -The FARC began as an organization supporting citizen s rights, but slowly began to abuse its power and take advantage of the people they were supposed to defend. -Polls show that only a third of Columbian citizens support the ongoing peace negotiations. With the FARC knowing that the peace deals lack Columbian citizen support, the rebel group is likely to back out of the negotiations altogether. Given the current political and social climate of the ongoing situation between the Columbian government and the FARC, it is highly plausible that peace talks between the two groups will fail simply due to the FARC s successful cocaine drug trade, influential political power, and lack of citizen support for the proposed deal. Such a breakdown in peace negotiations would continue one of the longest conflicts in the Western Hemisphere. Analyst: Daniel Cameron Faculty Advisor: David H. Gray 11

12 Columbia: Peace Negotiations with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Columbia The Republic of Columbia is currently undergoing peace talks with the domestic insurgency group known as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Columbia (FARC) as a means to reduce national casualties and deaths. Columbian president Juan Manuel Santos is continuing peace negotiations with FARC over the course of 2015 through temporary halts of targeted airstrikes against the insurgents, removal of explosives across the country, and pardoning of select FARC rebel leaders. Temporary Halts of Targeted Airstrikes The President of Columbia issued a month-long government suspension of airstrikes against the FARC insurgency group in early March, Columbia has refused to move forward towards bilateral ceasefire until they reach a final agreement with FARC. - Because of the temporary cessation of airstrikes, Columbia has had a reduction in counter-insurgency operations by the military. It is likely that Columbia s momentary ceasefire will continue until the country reaches a peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Columbia. The insurgency group will also halt offensive operations because of the break in airstrikes. Removal of Explosives After releasing information regarding unilateral ceasefire in December, 2014, FARC is working in adjunct with the Columbian government to remove improvised explosive devices and landmines as part of further peace negotiations. - Six FARC military leaders traveled to Havana, Cuba to deliberate military involvement in peace talks about removal of landmines. - In 2014, FARC armed actions were reduced by 40% because of preliminary stages to remove landmines and IEDs. Columbia will continue to work alongside FARC to reduce the amount of explosives in the country as peace talks with the insurgency group progress. Pardoning Select FARC Leaders The insurgency group FARC demands amnesty for selected rebel leaders in exchange for laying down their arms, but this demand is being questioned by the Columbian government. - The insurgency group has been funded by cocaine production for many years, but their drug involvement is complicating peace talks. - The United States is seeking an extradition against the FARC leaders on charges of drug trafficking and kidnapping. Columbia will continue to negotiate pardoning select FARC leaders despite their involvement in drug trafficking and other criminal charges being disputed by foreign countries. We access that Columbia will continue peace negotiations with FARC because bilateral ceasefire in foresight will prevent armed conflict and national security risks. It is likely that Columbia will work with the United States to stop drug trades funding FARC. Although peace negotiations appear moderate, the Columbian government s negotiation with FARC will gradually improve. Analyst: Cody Scholar 12

13 Syria: ISIS Establishing the One True Caliphate Although being a derivative of al-qaeda, ISIS has quickly influenced nations around the world through its mass beheadings, and publicity of said incidents. The Islamic State has implemented conventional warfare in Syria, as well using social media to publicize their reign of terror and targeting a wide array of the world s renowned countries. Warfare in Syria: Although a substantial amount of ISIS s recruits are not sufficiently trained and are rather young, they have been successful in seizing oil fields, as well as local towns and cities through armed assaults. Even though they have been forced into the city of Kobani in Syria, ISIS has yet to be completely eliminated from the area. The Islamic State has seized numerous oil refineries through armed takeover and is generating around $3 million dollars a day. The situation is expected to escalate in favor of the Islamic State, yet with constant air strikes by the United States and allied nations on vital assets such as controlled cities and oil fields, ISIS will likely be deterred. Usage of Social Media: After the beheading of James Foley on August 19, 2014, ISIS became a highly influential monstrosity on social media and has only intensified since the occurrence. Since the beheading of James Foley, ISIS has committed 18 other publicized beheadings, furthering their influence on citizens around the world while promoting their ideology of the One, True Caliphate. ISIS promotes the beheadings as successively because they condone the beheadings to be an appropriate measure for devout Muslims. Their reasoning is mentioned in the Quran to initiate beheadings of nonbelievers in times of war. It is anticipated that ISIS will continue to post beheadings in order to instill fear amongst their enemies and to assert dominance in the modern age of terrorism. Targeting of World Renowned Countries: Egypt, The United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom are some of the countries targeted by ISIS throughout their seemingly endless regime of beheadings and mass terror. Provoking world powers has led to an increase of airstrikes from the United States and allied nations. In targeting such influential world powers, ISIS has promoted cooperation between the nations to attempt to deter the Islamic State in their global efforts. We expect that with the continued assaults and provocation enacted by ISIS, that countries targeted by the Islamic State will carry on in their cooperative attempts to disrupt ISIS s future beheadings and other forms of global terror. We assess that ISIS will continue its relentless campaign of warfare in Syria by using mass numbers of fresh recruits as well as direct and indirect military force. We also expect ISIS to further their beheadings and the usage of social media, in addition to targeting more world powers to create an all-out war including a wide array of nations with slight deterrents from countries affected by said attacks or beheadings. Analyst: Christian Sprague 13

14 Mexico: Drug Cartels Evolving Command Structure In 2014, the Mexican government increased its efforts combatting Mexican Cartels. Throughout 2014 many high profile cartel bosses were apprehended, including Sinaloa s El Chapo Guzman. The result of increased pressure from the Mexican government has led to the decentralization of the cartels. The government s increased pressure has forced cartels to accelerate decentralization, foster the expansion of smaller crime groups, and continue to expand their international supply chains. Accelerated Decentralization In order for the Mexican drug cartels to continue to thrive there is an increased need for decentralized leadership and supply chains. In 2014, Mexico had notable success targeting the top leadership of various criminal groups. Arrests will drive an increase of anonymous figures, with the absence of high-profile, extremely powerful crime bosses. The continued arrests will undermine the cartels leadership. The results of the government's efforts will lead to a reorganization of each regional camp accelerating the tempo of the decentralization of organized crime in Mexico. Expansion of Smaller Crime Groups The recent apprehensions of prominent cartel bosses have led to fracturing, which has resulted in increased turf battles. The smaller cells will make it much more difficult for authorities to be able to gauge their operations. The decentralized crime groups is a way for organized crime to continue to operate even with aggressive law enforcement pressure. The cartels are emulating the decentralized terrorist cells we see in the Middle East. While recent high-profile arrests may grab headlines, extortion and kidnapping have risen nearly 200 percent. Expansion of International Supply Chains Each of the three regional cartel camps in Mexico will likely continue to expand its respective international drug supply chains to overseas markets. As US continues to legalize marijuana, Mexican cartels will seek to increase their exports to Europe. In recent months, cartels have increased their supply methamphetamines to Asia, including Japan. Mexican cartels have the advantage of being the only southern entry to the US, the largest consumer markets for illegal drugs. The captures of these high-profile leaders have had little effect on the flow of drugs throughout Europe and Asia, as well as the control of operations in the Americas. The implications of the Mexican government s increased pressure has forced cartels to accelerate decentralization, foster the expansion of smaller crime groups, and continue to expand their international supply chains. With the cartels ability to decentralize their operations we expect that organized crime throughout Mexico will continue to increase due to the turf wars of competing smaller crime groups. While supply chains reduce in dissemination due to the decreased capabilities of these smaller cells, the increased extortion and wars will result in the Mexican populace s growing dissatisfaction in the efforts of its government and allies. Analyst: Jason French 14

15 ISIL: The Reasoning Behind the Brutality Over the past year, the Islamic State has risen to prominence and captured worldwide attention through the brutal executions of their hostages mainly by beheading its victims or by burning them alive. The reasons behind the Islamic State s brutal executions are primarily to create order in occupied areas, to instill fear, and to capture media attention. Creating a system of Sharia law and order in occupied territories is one of the primary reasons for the Islamic State s use of brutality. --These tactics suppress immediate opposition that the group faces during its current campaign of Iraq and Syria. --Using violence and brutality creates order among civilians in already occupied Islamic State territories, resulting in easier defense of its homeland. It is likely that the group will continue to use brutal and violent tactics to suppress any thoughts of revolt or rebellion by local civilians in occupied territories. The Islamic State also uses its brutal execution methods to instill fear into Western nations and its immediate neighbors. --The use of fear allows the Islamic State to extend its control and influence to the far reaches of the globe, especially in the Western hemisphere, where it does not have a strong physical presence. --The use of fear, such as in conducting brutal executions, draws further attention to the Islamic State s cause of creating a genuine Islamic state governed by Sharia law. Because its tactics have worked thus far, it can be expected that the Islamic State will continue to conduct brutal acts of execution to further its spread of fear and influence. Capturing media attention is the last of the primary reasons behind the extreme brutality of the Islamic State s executions. --More brutal executions will almost certainly result in more widespread and frequent media coverage. --The greater the media coverage, the more attention the Islamic State draws towards its organization and its cause. It is highly likely that the Islamic State will continue to conduct brutal executions and other atrocious acts of violence in order to draw more attention to its cause via the media. We assess that the primary reasons the Islamic State possesses for conducting brutal executions include creating law and order in occupied territories, creating a sense of fear, and drawing attention to its cause through the media. It can be expected that these acts of violence will continue in order to strengthen the group s foundation and draw in more radical Islamic sympathizers. Therefore, it can also be expected that the group will continue to rise and gain more power and control of the region unless the media attention the group is receiving is reduced and its element of fear is eliminated. Analyst: Benjamin York 15