Mapping and Modelling the Impact of Land Use Planning and Management Practices on Urban and Peri-Urban Landscapes in the Greater Dublin Area

Transcription

1 Mapping and Modelling the Impact of Land Use Planning and Management Practices on Urban and Peri-Urban Landscapes in the Greater Dublin Area Dr. Martin Critchley Era-Maptec Ltd 36 Dame Street Dublin 2 mcritchley@era.ie

2 Topics 1. The MOLAND Project 2. Why Dublin? 3. Database Methodology Classification Imagery 2000 and 1990 databases Ancillary data Macro Statistics 4. Model 5. Applications

3 The MOLAND Project

4 MOLAND: Towards Sustainable Urban and Regional Development MOLAND study areas in Europe

5 MOLAND: Towards Sustainable Urban and Regional Development Greater Dublin / Leinster (Ireland) Examples of MOLAND study areas Region of Harjumaa (Estonia) & Via Baltica Dresden Prague Corridor Friuli Venezia Giulia (Italy): funded by the Regional Gov. Öresund area (Sweden Denmark)

6 MOLAND: Towards Sustainable Urban and Regional Development Input scenarios Current land use 1988 Transport network 1988 MOLAND urban and regional growth model Output indicators (examples) Access to green areas Green edge Zoning status (Dublin) (Dublin) Habitat suitability Potential noise pollution 2008 Suitability Predicted land use 2008 (Dublin) (Munich) Visibility of transport links European Common Indicators Socio-economic statistics Population Income Production Employment etc. Spatial planning and policy recommendations and guidelines (Trans-border Alpine site) (Copenhagen)

7 MOLAND: Towards Sustainable Urban and Regional Development Green Edge of urban fabric (Dublin)

8 MOLAND: Towards Sustainable Urban and Regional Development Growth of artificial areas in selected European urban areas (1950s-1990s): Algarve Setubal Palermo Bratislava Grenoble Veneto Helsinki Iraklion Oporto Bilbao Nicosia Tallinn Milan Dublin Lyon Brussels Marseille Copenhagen Prague Munich Vienna Dresden Sunderland Ruhrgebeit Goteborg %

9 MOLAND: Towards Sustainable Urban and Regional Development Loss of natural areas in selected European urban areas (1950s-1990s): Brussels Helsinki Dublin Copenhagen Veneto Milan Munich Prague Lyon Tallinn Vienna Algarve Dresden Bratislava Oporto Grenoble Palermo Marseille Ruhrgebeit Bilbao Nicosia Sunderland Iraklion Setubal Water bodies Wetlands Natural areas Agricultural areas KM2

10 MOLAND: Towards Sustainable Urban and Regional Development Urban sprawl change in distance of residential areas from the city centre: s s 1960s s s s m Dresden Prague Helsinki Vienna Munich Bilbao Milan Brussels Copenhagen Dublin

11 Why Dublin?

12 Why Dublin? One of the first cities studied under MURBANDY Murbandy showed large doubling in urban area over 40 yr period Rapid economic growth in Ireland during last 5-7 yrs has resulted in increased living standards and disposible income. The effects in Dublin are: Population pressure (need to attract additional workers) Housing pressure (lack of suitable land, rapid growth in prices +20% p.a., longer commuting distances) Transport pressure (due to increased work force and growth in car numbers) Much local & national interest in results & modelling

13 Study Area

14 MOLAND study areas in Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland North. Ireland & Border Counties: Just started Only reference year (2000) + Year 2003 (proposed) + Year 2006 (proposed) Greater Dublin Area: On-going To be completed Jan/Feb 2002 Year 1990 Year 2000 => Workshop in Dublin, Dec Dublin and environs: Completed (1956, 1968, 1988 and 1998)

15 Murbandy Results Initial urban in-filling followed by spread at the margins Statistics show doubling in urban fabric 1956 to 1998

16 Data

17 MOLAND Dublin 1.Land use databases for 1990 and Collection of ancillary data to support interpretation and modelling 3.Cellular Modelling

18 MOLAND: Greater Dublin Example of making land use database: City of München + Reference data: IRS-1C image (1997) Interpretation Delineation Classification Colour-coding + Ancillary data: Aerial colour ortho-photo (1997) = Ancillary data: 1:20,000 city map (1998) Production of land use map Result: Reference image with land use polygons

19 CORINE: Scale 1: Legend: 3 levels (mapping unit: 25 ha) Comparison of mapping at two scales MOLAND: Scale 1: Legend: 4 Levels (+1) (mapping unit : 1 ha differentiated, 3ha rural) 1 Artificial 1.1 Urban fabric Continuous urban fabric Residential continuous dense urban fabric surfaces Residential continuous medium dense urban fabric Informal settlements Discontinuous urban fabric Residential discontinuous urban fabric Residential discontinuous sparse urban fabric Residential urban blocks Informal discontinuous residential structures 1.2 Industr., comm Industrial, commercial, Industrial areas and transport public and private units Commercial areas Public and private services not transport Technological infrastructures for public service Road and rail networks and associated land Fast transit roads and associated land Other roads and associated land Railways and associated land.

20 Imagery 12 Pan and 5 LISS images cover the study area (approx. 15,000 sq Km) All images from May 2000, except for Dublin City (April 1999) Images are good quality Images orthocorrected using GCP s from 1:50,000 maps and 100m DEM Spot Pan imagery were used for 1990 s interpretation

21 IRS Imagery

22 Satellite imagery; Indian IRS (18m and 5m)

23 Comparison of Satellite Image and Moland Database Satellite Image MOLAND 2000

24 MOLAND: Greater Dublin Year 2000 Database Growth LEGEND Major Roads New_commercial.shp New_industry.shp New_residential.shp New_artificial.shp

25 Physical Data Ancillary data sources Digital terrain model (elevation, slope and aspect) Soil and soil suitability Natural hazards Pollution Protected Areas Zoning and development plans Heritage areas Archaeological sites Transport Network Road, rail and navigable waterways Future plans Key urban points

26 Ancillary data sources cont Macro Data (by county or region) for each year Population Employment by economic sector Future predictions Other Residential density (by residential class) Land prices

27 Zoning Plans Zoning plans show differences in detail across study area. Little detail outside urban areas

28 Model input data: accessibility to transport networks (one for each land use)

29 Macro Data Predicted Growth (source CSO)

30 Modelling

31 Overview of the MOLAND urban and regional growth model: A spatial dynamics model for simulating urban and regional growth. Takes as input different types of spatially referenced digital data: Land use (actual land use) Accessibility (access to transport network) Land use zoning status (legal constraints for different land uses) Land use suitability (inherent suitability for different land uses) Socio-economic data (population, income, production, employment, etc.) Output from the model is maps showing the predicted land use development and indicators, over a period of twenty-five years. By modifying the input data, the model can be used to explore, in a realistic way, alternative spatial planning and policy scenarios.

32 Aim of the MOLAND urban and regional growth model: Monitor the progress towards sustainability under existing spatial plans and policies Evaluate and compare alternative scenarios of spatial planning and policy Determine the critical factors in the input spatial plans and policies Territorial context Alternative spatial planning and policy scenarios Environmental data Predicted land use development Social data Economic data

33 MOLAND Urban and Regional Growth Model

34 Transition rules of model The transition rules specify the interaction between neighbouring land use types Example: Effect of Residential discontinuous sparse urban fabric on: (a) the same land use type (b) Industrial areas In other words: Residential discontinuous sparse urban fabric will tend to occur beside cells of the same type, and not beside Industrial areas

35 Predicted Land Use Model Actual Land Use 2000

36 Predicted Land Use Model

37 Application

38 MOLAND: Greater Dublin Type of planning / policy intervention (1): ¾ Add a new transport link to the transport network database Application (example): ¾ Strategic Environment Assessment of Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T)

39 Type of planning / policy intervention (2): Modify an area s zoning status for a land use type (e.g. industrial areas) Application (example): Assessing the effects of prohibiting the development of artificial surfaces in natural areas

40 Type of planning / policy intervention (3): Modify an area s suitability for a land use type (e.g. residential urban fabric) Application (example): Assessing the effects of decreased risk of flooding due to infrastructural improvements

41 Type of planning / policy intervention (4): Modify the socio-economic data (e.g. population, income, production, employment) Application (example): Assessing the effects of changing economic climate (e.g. decreased industrial production)

42 Type of planning / policy intervention (5): Change the transition rules defining the interaction between adjacent land use types Neutral effect of water bodies on residential areas Attraction effect of water bodies on residential areas Application (example): Capturing cultural characteristics (e.g. nearness to water attractive for residential areas)

43 Republic of Ireland s proposed 12 Functional Areas (National Spatial Strategy, 2001): Spatial trends and patterns of activity and development in Ireland are seen in terms of distinct areas containing cities or towns and their hinterlands, sharing common characteristics and issues (e.g. commuting catchment of a major city). MOLAND provides an integrated spatial planning tool that can contribute to the assessment and monitoring of the National Spatial Strategy. Need for interaction with local, regional, and national authorities: As a result of this Project, it is hoped: To focus the MOLAND methodology on issues that are directly related to the National Spatial Strategy To explore different applications for the results for the Greater Dublin Area

44 Conclusions

45 Conclusions First detailed land use study of the Greater Dublin area Problems with chronological synchronisation with socio/economic data Deficiencies in some national data sets (eg Development plans) Model compares well with actual 2000 land use database Model developed to run forward to 2025 Additional work needed to add-on designated indicators. Also could build-in full transportation element. Regional and/or national adoption of model is needed

46 END