An Update on the Work of the Florida Catastrophic Storm Risk Management Center. Lorilee A. Medders, Ph.D. Director

Transcription

1 An Update on the Work of the Florida Catastrophic Storm Risk Management Center Lorilee A. Medders, Ph.D. Director Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund Workshop June 11, 2015 Buena Vista, Florida

2 Section F.S. Creates the Center at The Florida State University College of Business, Department of Risk Management/Insurance in 2007 Why is the Center needed? Continuity Collins Center Report Coordination Bringing together a myriad of entities and disciplines 2

3 Who We Are Storm Center is a growing, interdisciplinary collaboration of academic experts working on myriad catastrophic storm risk issues Expertise includes: Storm Center faculty, weighted towards the areas of risk management, risk modeling, insurance, finance and economics Other FSU faculty, in tropical storm forecasting, prediction and meteorology, storm formation and intensity modeling, pre- and post-disaster planning and behavioral responses to hazards Faculty at other Florida universities, especially in structural wind engineering Researchers outside of Florida for specific projects 3

4 Legislative Directives, Center Action 1. Coordinate and disseminate research efforts that are expected to have an immediate impact on policy and practices related to catastrophic storm preparedness 2. Coordinate and disseminate information related to catastrophic storm risk management, including, but not limited to, research and information that would benefit business, consumers, public policy makers Addressing hurricane and climate risk problem Engineering stronger homes Coastal monitoring program and doppler radar Addressing subsidy issues Storm Surge Mitigation Credits 4

5 3. Facilitate Florida s preparedness and responsiveness to catastrophic storms and collaborate with other public and private institutions Partnerships have included: Center for Ocean & Atmospheric Prediction Studies East Carolina University Florida Climate Institute Insurance Research Council National Alliance for Insurance Education NOAA Hurricane Research Division Society of Insurance Research University of Florida University of Miami University of South Florida Wharton (University of Pennsylvania) Willis Re Research Net 5

6 4. Create and promote studies that enhance the educational options available to risk management and insurance students Curricula incorporating catastrophe risk management into academic coursework Symposia Directly supporting risk management students assistantships, stipends Supporting civil engineering, geography, and meteorology students 6

7 5. Publish and disseminate findings primarily related to risk management Symposia Topics Presented Explaining Mitigation Credits Insurance Industry Performance Incentivizing Disaster Mitigation Measures Financial Ratings Agencies & Rating Standards for CAT Risks The Growing Challenges of Catastrophe Risks Subsidies in Florida s Property Insurance Market Capital Market Capacity to Fund Catastrophe Risk More than two dozen academic research publications to date Web resources at 7

8 Speaking Engagements American Risk and Insurance Association Appropriations Committee, Florida House of Representatives Associated Industries of Florida Forum Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank Roundtable Florida Chamber of Commerce Annual Insurance Summit Florida Conference on Financial Reporting Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund Annual Participating Insurers Workshop Florida Office of Insurance Regulation Governor Bentley s Affordable Homeowners Insurance Commission (Alabama) The Inter American Seas Institute for Sustainability Science and Policy: The Economics of Coastal Development and Natural Disaster Risk Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety Insurance Research Council International Insurance Society Natural Hazards Center Workshop National Hurricane Conference Society for Insurance Research Southern Risk and Insurance Association Summer Institute on Disaster and Risk, Beijing Normal University (Beijing, China) Summit for Managing Extreme Events National Academy of Sciences Western Risk and Insurance Association 8

9 Recent Honors and Recognition American Risk and Insurance Association Best Paper Awards 2015 Best Actuarial Paper Topic: economic theory of the firm & reinsurance To link to this article: Best Risk and Insurance Paper Topic: Market interventions & negative externalities To link to this article: International Insurance Society Research Award 2014 Topic: geographic aggregation of risk To link to the original white paper: 9

10 Special Projects in the Past Five Years Hurricane Mitigation Inspection System Study (2010) Residential Construction Mitigation Program (Florida Department of Community Affairs, DEM Home Hardening Incentives Programs: Innovative Finance Concepts for Wind Mitigation and Home Hardening ( ) Helping Local Governments Design Financing Programs for Residential Wind Mitigation and Home Hardening ( ) Facilitating Public Outreach through Collaboration among Professionals Integral to Hurricane Mitigation Promotion Efforts ( ) Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund: Alternative Methods for Managing Size (2013) The State of Florida s Property Insurance Market (ongoing since 2011) State University Property Characteristics Inventory Project (ongoing since 2012) 10

11 State Property Characteristics Inventory Project Modeled results are only as robust as the exposure data entered into them When missing or incorrect information is enhanced, it is not uncommon to see loss estimates change by a factor of four on a single building Project objectives Ascertain Building Characteristics Model Data Determine More Accurate AALs and PMLs Determine Hardening Measures Needed Provide Common Location Identifier Promote Competition Among Reinsurers Assist State Division of Risk Management with Information Needed for Sound Risk Prevention and Reduction To be completed June, 2015 Summary Findings Available June 1,

12 Current and Ongoing Projects of Note Analysis of wind mitigation/fortification information on home values (currently looking at Miami-Dade only) Study of homeowner wildfire & wind mitigation perceptions & behavior in 12 U.S. communities Analyses of individual catastrophe perceptions, mitigation confidence and insurance trust First analyses to ever combine economics and neuroscience to study the Why? and How? of mitigation and insurance related to catastrophic risk A related stream of studies centered on the behavioral side of catastrophe risk protection 12

13 Current and Ongoing Projects of Note Issues of Affordability for Homeowners Property Risk Lessons learned from Florida s mitigation discounts program, including comparisons with programs of other coastal states Economic treatment of why long-term financing of risk mitigation (property hardening) is superior to long-term homeowners insurance as a way to make property risk more affordable for homeowners and other property owners Continuation of work on the design of mitigation finance programs for localities Modeled analysis of the differences and similarities in risk characteristics of tornado systems and hurricane systems 13

14 Current and Ongoing Projects of Note Insurance, reinsurance & financial markets research & outreach (as needed) Optimize use of private reinsurance capacity & private capital Economic impacts of risk-based rating within the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Feasibility & optimality of flood insurance privatization within Florida 14

15 Current and Ongoing Projects of Note Launch of the EARNEST Initiative for design solutions to balance the need for economic development with the need for economic resiliency in high-risk areas Foster reduction of catastrophe vulnerability via: Internal risk reduction through improvement in knowledge of the risk and education of the public, policy makers and specialists about storm mitigation Direct risk reduction through stronger built structures and adaption to catastrophic storm risk Foster increase in economic development via: Local comparative advantage and resources Realistic collaboration between local economic sectors 15

16 Current and Ongoing Projects of Note Development of catastrophe risk management academic curricula & continuing education programs Capitalize on increasing opportunity for jobs creation in catastrophe risk management arena Presently, only a handful of universities in the USA offer related programs, and these have limited scope (flood plain or emergency management only) Can be made a collaborative effort across disciplines and across Florida university campuses 16

17 Questions? For access to any or all of the Center s research Visit 17