Re: In the matter of Case 14-M-0101 Proceeding on the Staff White Paper on Benefit-Cost Analysis in the Reforming the Energy Vision Proceeding
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1 195 New Karner Road, Suite 200 nature.org Albany NY August 21, 2015 VIA ELECTRONIC MAIL Honorable Kathleen H. Burgess New York Public Service Commission Three Empire State Plaza Albany, NY Re: In the matter of Case 14-M-0101 Proceeding on the Staff White Paper on Benefit-Cost Analysis in the Reforming the Energy Vision Proceeding Dear Secretary Burgess, The Nature Conservancy (TNC) is submitting for filing our comments to the New York State Public Service Commission in the above referenced Cases 14-M-0101 in the Matter of the July 1, 205 Staff White Paper on the Benefit Cost Analysis in the Reforming the Energy Vision Proceeding. The Benefit Cost Analysis is an important and integral element in achieving New York s vision for a reliable, clean, resilient and affordable energy future and we appreciate the opportunity to provide our comments. Sincerely, Cara Lee Senior Conservation Manager
2 State of New York Public Service Commission Proceeding on Motion of the Commission in Regard to Reforming the Energy Vision Case 14-M-0101 The Nature Conservancy Response to New York State Department of Public Service ( DPS ) Staff White Paper on Benefit-Cost Analysis I. Introduction These comments are in response to the Staff White Paper on Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA White Paper) in the Reforming Energy Vision (REV) Proceeding 14-M-0101, filed on July 1, The Nature Conservancy (TNC) appreciates the opportunity to provide comments to the New York Public Service Commission (PSC) on the important set of questions presented in the BCA White Paper, and that the PSC is inviting comment on options prior to making recommendations. REV is a visionary and transformative initiative that can result in a reliable, cleaner, more resilient and affordable energy economy. The benefit cost analysis (BCA) will be the backbone of the initiative and will be instrumental in establishing critical price signals that will enable New York to achieve its vision and policy goals. While development of the BCA will be an iterative process, it is likely that the terms of the BCA established now, for the purposes described in the BCA White Paper, will lay the groundwork and determine policy and practice for future REV-related initiatives, both at a broader and more granular scale. It is therefore critical at this point to be as comprehensive and forward-looking as possible in defining principles, identifying benefits and costs, choosing appropriate screening tests, clarifying inputs, defining methodologies and the process for implementation as fully as possible. The BCA framework will not only support policy, investment, and pricing choices as the implementation of REV moves forward, but also will give the PSC a tool to determine which distributed energy resources will be in the best interests of the public and will best meet New York s suite of policy objectives. To meet those policy goals and objectives, all aspects of the BCA must be designed in a way that is consistent with those goals. As many of New York s policy goals are long term societal goals, e.g. the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, it will be necessary to design the REV BCA to include external societal benefits and use a discount rate that reflects the time horizons required to achieve those 2
3 benefits. While some parties to the proceeding have argued against inclusion of social cost factors for fear of higher costs for consumers, failure to account for social costs now will only delay needed mitigation and will result in much higher costs for customers and society at large later. Clearly defining how the BCA will be used, overseen, reviewed, and revised all are yet to be determined. For these reasons, The Nature Conservancy respectfully requests that the PSC take the opportunity to engage stakeholders in a fuller dialogue on technical and policy issues through a series of technical conferences or workshops to address in greater detail the design and implementation of the BCA framework for the REV process and the upcoming filing of Distributed System Implementation Plans (DSIP) plans by the utilities as soon as possible. In our comments we address some broad principles that should applied in development the BCA (Section II), provide general comments on the proposed framework (Section III), address some of specific questions posed by PSC staff (Section IV) and provide response on alternative approaches to valuing the social benefits and costs of alternative DER choices attributable to GHGs and other pollutants (Section V). These comments reflect our view that in weighing policy objectives, it is critical that reduction of climate emissions be a priority, as a means of mitigating climate change and the severe economic, public health and environmental impacts that it poses. II. BCA Principles for REV The Nature Conservancy supports the following broad principles for the development of a BCA framework for use in REV: Develop a BCA framework that can be applied consistently The framework and methodology for REV processes should be developed with an expectation that it can be applied to different specific applications and at different scales within the REV process (e.g., Commission policy decisions, utility infrastructure investments, and pricing of DER products); Reducing Greenhouse Gases must be a top priority - Reduction of greenhouses gases and priority pollutants is necessary to achieve New York s climate goals. All aspects of BCA performed for REV projects should be consistent with this set of policy goals. Minimize the use of qualitative measures for social externalities to the greatest extent possible - For social externalities use monetized and quantified information to the greatest extent available for regulatory judgments. In the absence of quantified information establish a clearly defined process for evaluating those values; establish a methodology including standards and protocols for assessing qualitative benefits to ensure transparency of the regulatory decision-making process. 3
4 III. The BCA Framework Proposal Consistent with the REV Order, the White Paper proposes to delimit the role of the proposed BCA framework as a specific and quantifiable portion of REV implementation the evaluation of opportunities to avoid traditional utility distribution investments by calling upon the marketplace to supply DER alternatives. These opportunities will be identified in each utility s Distribution System Implementation Plan (DSIP). 1 While this will be the first, most immediate application of the BCA framework, the framework and associated methodology should be designed to inform other REV assessments, so that it can be used to guide overall policy decisions and to fairly compare substitutes, accounting for system-wide, aggregated benefits and costs. In the context of evaluating the marginal costs and benefits of DER versus traditional utility investments and expenditures and tariff development, the BCA White Paper suggests relying solely on the utility weighted average cost of capital (WACC) as the single discount rate to be used. It also proposes to broaden traditional utility cost-benefit analysis by including societal benefits to inform investment decisions. It is unclear about how these two approaches align and the paper is open-ended on critical questions about the methodology and implementation of the approach. Better definition is needed for how the BCA will be implemented, which cost tests will be used, how inputs will be defined and what the process for oversight will be. The Nature Conservancy does not support using WACC as the discount rate in the proposed BCA. The utility WACC is a relatively high discount rate and therefore places less value on long term benefits. Because New York s suite of policy objectives includes long term societal goals, the BCA should rely on a societal discount rate that is lower than the utility WACC. By using a societal discount rate, the BCA will be able to best to reflect (a) the value of short vs long term costs and benefits to all utility customers as well as to society in general, and (b) the time preference associated with the state s energy policy goals, many of which are related to social impacts. In addition the societal discount rate is consistent with the use of the societal cost test for screening distributed energy resources. IV. Responses to Questions Posed By Staff About BCA Design and Implementation A stated underlying objective of the White Paper is to facilitate a dialogue among parties addressing the components and application of a BCA in the context of REV. To that end, Staff invited comments 1 NYS Department of Public Service, Staff White Paper on Benefit-Cost Analysis in the Reforming Energy Vision Proceeding, 14-M-0101, July 1, 2015 (BCA White Paper) 4
5 on all aspects of the White Paper, and specifically invited response to the following questions: 1) what analytical components should be included in a BCA; 2) the method for determining the value of the component; 3) the frequency of updating such values; and 4) the process for, and contents of utility specific BCA Handbooks; 5) the approach to applying the BCA in specific applications Analytical Components - The following analytical components are all necessary and must be designed to be consistent with policy goals, specifically including carbon emissions reduction and other social benefits; identifying all relevant costs and benefits; choice of screening tests; choice of discount rate; inclusion of all relevant benefits and impacts, even when they are difficult to quantify Identifying all relevant costs and benefits - The Nature Conservancy concurs with the list of benefits and costs to be included in the BCA framework identified in Table 1, 3 and in particular supports inclusion of the external social benefits specified, including: avoided greenhouse gases emissions; avoided criteria air pollutants; avoided water Impacts; avoided land impacts; and nonenergy benefits (e.g. avoided service terminations, avoided uncollected bill, health impacts, employee productivity, property values). In order for REV to succeed, the BCA must incorporate societal benefits that reflect the policy goals of REV in meaningful and practical ways. Choice of screening tests The Nature Conservancy supports use of the Societal Cost Test as primary basis for deciding whether or not to proceed with any particular DER program or portfolio, as it is best suited to incorporate the external benefits listed in Table 1. Once the Societal Cost Test has been applied the Utility Cost Test can be used at a subsequent stage to weigh narrower cost considerations. As indicated in our earlier comments, the Rate Impact measure (RIM) should not be used as a screen for analysis of rate-payer impacts. While consideration of rate impacts is important, a better approach is needed to provide the information needed and more accurately understand the impacts of DER on rates. 4 2 BCA White Paper at pg. 1 3 BCA White Paper at pg Tim Woolf, Melissa Whited, Erin Malone, Tony Vitolo, Rick Hornby, A Framework for Accounting for All Relevant Costs and Benefits, Prepared for the Advanced Energy Institute, Synapse Energy Economics Inc., September 22, pg. 3 5
6 Choice of discount rate The choice of a discount rate is traditionally driven by the short term needs of investors, with higher discount rates meeting short term goals. In the context of the REV BCA, and in order for the REV process to be meaningful the choice of discount rate must be aligned with the desired policy outcomes. The societal goals and benefits for the REV process (e.g. greenhouse gas emissions reduction) are a longer term value proposition and thus would dictate putting higher value on future benefits, which requires relying on a lower discount rate. That is, a societal discount rate is most appropriate in the REV context, as it is best able to reflect the value of long term costs and benefits to all utility customers as well as to society in general. The societal discount rates is frequently in the range of 0 3%. 5 The Commission should also allow for discount rates to be temporarily set below zero, allowing specific technologies to be incentivized in special circumstances. The choice of discount rate within this range for the REV BCA should be subject to additional stakeholder input. Inclusion of all relevant benefits and impacts, even when they are difficult to quantify In its February 16, 2015 REV Order, the PSC describes the REV regulatory process as providing the opportunity to integrate the value streams of cost reduction and reliability enhancement with environmental protection, and the BCA as a tool for achieving that balance. 6 The Order further envisions REV establishing markets to reward resources that integrate these value streams, in contrast to current practices where these values are too often set in conflict with each other. When the least cost outcomes and social benefits do not converge the Order suggests that the BCA will inform development of tariffs and other transactions to achieve the best result for the public. To achieve this forward looking vision, it is necessary to characterize and include the values of environmental and social benefits as fully as possible in the interests of the public, even when they are difficult to quantify, in contrast to past practices of defaulting to a value of zero. 2) Methods for Determining the Value of Components Our comments on valuing the components of the BCA are focused on external damages and avoided environmental costs (benefits). Greenhouse Gas Parameter Making GHG emission reduction a parameter in utility investment planning is consistent with the goals of REV and New York State GHG reduction goals. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing 5 Woolf, et al. at pg. 7 6 State of New York Public Service Commission CASE 14-M-0101 Proceeding on Motion of the Commission in Regard to Reforming the Energy Vision. Order Adopting Regulatory Policy Framework and Implementation Plan, 2/16/15, at pg
7 the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems. Limiting climate change would require substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions which, together with adaptation, can limit climate change risks. 7 The Nature Conservancy recommends that the BCA use the NYS DEC recommended convention of using the terms carbon and GHG to refer to a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) that is consistent with the EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Rule, which includes the full suite of gases with global warming potential, appropriately expanding the scope of climate change emissions addressed by REV from CO2 to all GHGs that contribute to climate change. 8 We also support DEC s recommendation that the REV initiative should seek to apply a cost that has broad agreement among stakeholders; accurately reflects the nature of climate change by considering uncertainty, intergenerational costs and both marginal and catastrophic events; provides an accurate and strong market signal relative to other factors in the BCA; and considers all relevant GHGs, including an accurate accounting of methane. In order to ascribe a value for the purposes of the REV BCA, the PSC should adopt the Interagency Social Cost of Carbon (SC-CO2) as an estimate of economic damages associated with an increase in climate change emissions, or conversely the value of damages avoided. Criteria Air Pollutants Parameters Reduction of criteria air pollutants are rightfully included in the BCA, to be factored into decision-making and valuing the benefits of DER, due to the impacts they cause on human and environmental health, apart from the impacts of climate change. Methodologies have been developed by EPA for monetizing human health benefits of reductions in criteria pollutants and should be examined in consultation with the Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) for adoption as part of the BCA framework. 9 Land and Water Parameters Natural systems provide society with clean water, food and forest products, recreation, wildlife, biodiversity and climate resilience. Ecosystem goods and services, or ecosystem services, are the outputs of natural systems from which humans may derive benefits. Increasingly scientists are finding ways to quantify the value of these benefits from nature. That said, often times, these value are still not being incorporated in decision making and/or the benefits remain under-valued or unquantified. DER can lead to a reduced footprint for energy production thereby helping secure nature s ability to produce these societal benefits. 7 Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers, NYSDEC Comments on Department of Public Service Staff Straw Proposal on Track One Issues in the Proceeding on Reforming the Energy Vision (Case 14-M-0101) 9/22/14, at pg NYSDEC Comments on Department of Public Service Staff Straw Proposal on Track One Issues, at pg. 6. 7
8 Analyses of the benefits or values associated with DER and land conservation are limited and suggest that the benefits may be defined by 1) the potential for a reducing the land footprint required for energy generation; 2) the change in property value due to the reduced footprint; and 3) avoided ecosystem impacts. Along the same vein, it has been suggested that the value or benefits of DER from reducing water use can be defined by 1) various water consumption patterns and impacts associated with different energy generation technologies; 2) the value of water for municipal, agricultural, recreational use; and 3) avoided ecosystem impacts. 10 While these factors are relevant, they are incomplete and poorly quantified. As a result, they are undervalued. The BCA White Paper acknowledges that utilities need a means to consider these non-market public costs and benefits that DER impose or provide and suggests that many of these (such as land, water, and neighborhood impacts) will depend on the specific alternatives considered and will likely need to be weighed in a qualitative and judgmental way. 11 While direct monetization is the preferred approach to valuing impacts and should be chosen whenever possible, this can be difficult when it comes to environmental damages or benefits to land and water. Alternative methods for values that are not easily monetized but must be accounted for include proxies, alternative benchmarks, regulatory judgment or multi-attribute decision analysis. 12 Increasingly, in the absence of monetary values, decision-makers are turning to ecosystem service assessments and valuations that can quantify values that are difficult to monetize to help guide management decisions. An ecosystem services assessment as described in the Federal Resource Management and Ecosystem Services (FRMES) guidebook can be used to describe how management choices affect the well-being of people, communities, and economies through their effect on natural systems. 13 Ecosystem service analysis combines ecological and social sciences to arrive at values for the benefit or value stream that flows from ecosystems to people. Ideally, such an assessment can help decision makers incorporate the less commonly quantified, but no less important, benefits of nature, along with more commonly considered benefits of management actions, into their decision making. Detailed guidance for methods for this approach has been developed through a collaborative process by federal agencies, universities, and NGOs and provides an analytical 10 A Review of Solar PV Benefit and Cost Studies, Lena Hanson, Lacy, V., Glick, D. Electricity Innovation Lab, Rocky Mountain Institute, 2013, pg BCA White paper at pg Woolfe, et al. at pg National Ecosystem Services Partnership Federal Resource Management and Ecosystem Services Guidebook. National Ecosystem Services Partnership, Duke University, 8
9 framework that is consistent, practical, and credible. Ecosystem service assessments should not be viewed as a new type of analysis or valuation, but merely as an evolution and reframing of longestablished theory and techniques. The intent of the FRMES framework is to assess or demonstrate the net social benefit of a project. For this reason, the analysis should include all information whether in the form of dollar values, relative utility, quantitative changes in ecosystem services, or qualitative descriptions for all services identified as important to the decision and for all options being considered. The information can be incorporated into alternatives or decision matrices, which can also incorporate information on costs direct costs or opportunity costs. Such a matrix allows decision makers a transparent way to see all the information side by side. Preference evaluation methods, including market and non-market economic valuation as well as non-monetary methods can be used to estimate values for ecosystem services and are considered best practice for ecosystem service assessments. Short of these practices, identifying measures of ecosystem services referred to as benefit-relevant indicators (BRI) are the minimum standard recommended for an ecosystem services assessment. Using BRIs goes beyond narrative description and are designed to reflect the ecosystem s capacity to provide benefits to society. 14 In the REV context, an initial step towards valuation of ecosystem services would be identification of the suite of services generated through DER. The Nature Conservancy recommends that the PSC examine this rapidly emerging methodology as part of the development of the REV BCA, as a means of providing a transparent process for gathering and assessing the information needed to inform regulatory judgement and support valuation. The BCA White paper implies that values for land and water benefits would be developed on a caseby-case basis by utilities, depending on the specifics of replacement of energy generation facilities with DER in specific locations. This highly individualized approach could be cumbersome, costly and may fall to the side if difficult to conduct. We suggest that the PSC and NYSERDA consider developing regional ecosystem services assessments that would delineate types of services that should be valued and would support valuation of more localized benefits and costs. A spatial analysis of ecosystem services could be complementary to a spatially explicit analysis of the 14 Lydia Olander, Robert J. Johnston, Heather Tallis, Jimmy Kagan, Lynn Maguire, Steve Polasky, Dean Urban, James Boyd, Lisa Wainger, and Margaret Palmer Best Practices for Integrating Ecosystem Services into Federal Decision Making. Durham: National Ecosystem Services Partnership, Duke University. doi: /m2ch07) 9
10 potential for grid improvements, providing a useful set of tools to help guide investment planning. The Nature Conservancy would welcome the opportunity to work with the PSC and NYSERDA to provide appropriate natural resource spatial data for such an assessment. 3. Frequency of Updating Such Values No comment at this time. 4. The process for, and contents of, utility specific BCA Handbooks The BCA White Paper recommends development of utility handbooks to apply BCA methodology, but does not provide sufficient guidance on what the handbooks should address or how they would be implemented. If the utilities are expected to develop the handbooks it will be critical that there is sufficient uniformity in technical guidance to create a level playing field and to facilitate use by third party developers across the state. A standardized template should be developed that could be applied across all the utilities. Alternatively, or in addition, the handbook could be a standard, public cost/benefit calculator that can be used by DER providers with the utilities providing relevant data. Part of this model could be made available to the public (without utility key technical assumptions) to evaluate cost effectiveness of prospective programs/projects. Development of the BCA handbook should be subject to stakeholder engagement to better understand and reach agreement on intent and regulatory implementation. 5. Implementation - Approach to applying BCA in Specific Applications We think that it is premature to address how the BCA framework will be applied in specific applications until it is more fully articulated. V. Alternative Approaches to Value the Social Benefits and Costs of Alternative DER Choices Attributable to Greenhouse Gases and Other Air Pollutants The BCA White Paper provides three alternative methods for assigning value to the social benefits and costs of alternative DER choices for greenhouse gases and other air pollutants. Option 1 Rely on Values Reflected in the LBMPs - Option 1 relies on values reflected in Location Based Marginal Prices (LBMPs). Cap and trade programs have internalized some social costs into these wholesale values. These represent the NYISO s best estimate of the compliance prices that would be produced by these mitigation programs, but do not include an estimate of the marginal damage costs. Absent the marginal damage costs, the values suggested only represent today s compliance costs and are not sufficiently representative of the damage costs of greenhouse gas emissions, or the other 10
11 benefits that DER provides. The Nature Conservancy does not support Option 1 as an approach for valuing the social benefits and costs of alternative DER choices. Option 2 Detailed Calculation of Net Marginal Damage Costs Option 2 incorporates both compliance costs and estimates net marginal damage costs using the federal Interagency Social Cost of Carbon (SC-SO2), and the CARIS database. SC-CO2 is a single metric for all federal agencies and is meant to be a comprehensive estimate of climate change damages and includes changes in net agricultural productivity, human health, property damages from increased flood risk and changes in energy system costs, and with the intent to allow agencies to incorporate the social benefits of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions into cost-benefit analyses of regulatory actions 15 The Nature Conservancy supports using SC CO2 as a good proxy for developing marginal damage cost of carbon recognizing it still represents a minimum. The SC-SO2 was developed by experts from 11 federal agencies and has been subject to rigorous review, including a finding by the GAO that the process of developing this measure was robust. 16 Using the SC-SO2 is defensible and it will be updated to reflect science-based understanding of societal costs of climate change as more modeling is done. The Nature Conservancy agrees with the staff assessment that this methodology may provide the most complete, rational and defensible approach for valuing the damage attributable to emissions of carbon dioxide and other pollutants, 17 however we question how compliance costs will be applied and if the remaining SC-CO2 value will be high enough to clearly drive cleaner energy choices. Option 3 Approach #3: Large Scale Renewable Parity This option relies on compliance cost plus a surrogate for damage costs ($25/MWh based on Large Scale Renewable incentives) and is intended for use in the first round of utility DSIP planning and implementation. The Nature Conservancy is not in favor of this option because this price does not in fact reflect the value to society of abating greenhouse gas emissions and is not sufficient to achieve New York s goals. VI. Conclusion Despite the commendable work that has been done to identify external costs and benefits that must be included in the BCA framework, a process should be put in place as soon as possible to further flesh out the design and implementation of the BCA, including an appropriate number of technical conferences to solicit stakeholder input on methodologies used to value those 15 EPA Fact Sheet - Social Cost of Carbon Reviewed in GAO Regulatory Impact Analysis: Development of Social Cost of Carbon Estimates GAO : Published: July 24, Publicly Released Aug 25, Available at 17 BCA White Paper, at pg
12 benefits and costs, input assumptions to be used, and the process for implementation of the BCA framework. The Nature Conservancy welcomes the opportunity to continue to work with NYSERDA and the PSC to address these questions. 12
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