Meeting the Prime Minister Goals in Crime Reduction Why the Crime Rate Could Fall Over the Next Three Years

Transcription

1 Meeting the Prime Minister Goals in Crime Reduction Why the Crime Rate Could Fall Over the Next Three Years Two of the Prime Minister s Goals for the Nation are to reduce crime and reduce reoffending. The government is currently examining ways to do that. In Newsletter #99 Rethinking showed that in comparison with other comparable nations, the New Zealand justice system fared badly. In this edition, we take a closer look at the incidence of crime in New Zealand, and consider how realistic it is to expect the crime rate to decrease, over the next three years. 1 The Crime Rate is Falling New Zealand, like most western democracies, is experiencing a declining crime rate. Over the last three years, the crime rate has declined as follows: % % % New Zealand is not unique. There has been an international downward trend in the crime rate since the 1990 s. The graph below shows the decrease in crime rates in comparative countries. 1 Most of the graphs and figures in this paper are taken from a Ministry of Justice presentation, 2011 Justice Sector Forecast - Justice Horizons Seminar 26 Oct 2011, Historical perspectives and forecast trends. 1

2 Crime is falling across most Western countries: United States: crime has been falling since 1991 Australia: in an on-going crime decline since peaking in 2001 Scotland: recorded crime is at its lowest level for over 30 years, having peaked in 2004/05 Canada: reported crime volume has been declining over the past decade; the Crime Severity Index declined 22% from 1999 to 2009 England and Wales: offences are declining, having peaked in 2007/08 Netherlands: recently started hiring out their prison space to Belgium, citing a reduction in crime as one of the reasons they could do so. Internationally, there are a range of theories as to why there has been a decline in the crime rate. They include the following: Fall in demand for crack and methamphetamine leading to a fall in associated violent crime Smarter policing targeting high risk factors Number crunching analysis of crime patterns Legal abortion fewer children for young, poor, single mothers More criminals behind bars so less opportunity to re-offend Reduced exposure to lead in petrol reducing behavioural problems Demographics the Baby Boomers grew up Video games keeping young people off the streets [+ social media?] Proliferation of camera phones increasing the risk of being caught. There is a great deal of international debate about the above issues, but not a lot of consensus. How does New Zealand s crime rate compare with other nations? It is very difficult to compare crime rates across countries -- each country uses a different method for counting and categorising crime. There are frequent changes in measurement rules and definitions and the frequency with which information is collected and published. One exception is murder or homicide, where the data is generally precise and reliable. The murder rate is an indicator of the violence level within a community. Country Population (estimate date) Australia 22,820,400 (2/2/2012) Canada England & Wales 34,605,300 (3rd quarter 2011) 55,240,500 (mid- 2010) Murder rate Prison population rate (year) Death penalty (2010) Abolished (2010) Abolished (2011) Abolished Finland 5,375,300 (2010) (2011) Abolished 2

3 France 65,350,200 (1/1/2012) Netherlands 16,727,300 (1/1/2011) (2011) Abolished (2011) Abolished New Zealand 4,437,100 (3/2/2012) (2011) Abolished Northern Ireland 1,799,400 (mid-2010) (2011) Abolished Republic of Ireland 4,581,300 (2011) (2011) Abolished Scotland 5,222,100 (2010) (2011) Abolished United States 308,745,500 (2010) (2010) Retained in some states (Adapted from National Audit Office, UK, Ministry of Justice report, Comparing International Criminal Justice Systems Feb 202, p.14, Fig 2.) New Zealand s most recent murder rate, as at 30 June 2011, is 1.29 per 100,000, which is at the low end of the scale. Because the rate is highly volatile and can shift dramatically from one year to the next, it is more helpful to consider the long term trend. (Source: Ministry of Justice) By taking a longer view we get the following perspective: The murder rate was highly volatile and trending slightly downward or flat prior to 1950 There was an upward trend from a low point in the 1950s, followed by a large step up in 1985 There has been a downward, though quite volatile, trend from the mid-1980s. 3

4 Police and prison muster (per 100,000 population) Crime rate (per 100,000 population) Garth McVicar is correct to say that when he was born (in 1951) New Zealand was a safe country. What he fails to mention is that the murder rate has steadily trended downward since What is the Relationship between Police Numbers, Imprisonment Rates, and the Crime Rate? The graph below shows that that there is very little relationship between the crime rate and the imprisonment rate. There is however, a close relationship between the increase in police numbers and the increase in reported crime. As the per capita number of police rises, so does the reported crime rate. As was made clear in Newsletter #99, there is no clear relationship worldwide between imprisonment rates and crime rates. Imprisonment levels have a minimal impact on the crime rate. This will be discussed in more detail in a future newsletter Crime rate, number of Police, and prison muster 22,500 20, ,500 15,000 12,500 10,000 7,500 5,000 2, Data sourced from Statistics NZ, Police Annual Reports and Department of Corrections. From 1994 Crime rate represents reported crime. Earlier figures are equivalent estimates from Statistics NZ. (Source: Ministry of Justice) Year Police force Prison muster Crime rate In summary: Recorded crime rate leapt from the 1950s to peak in 1992; declining since then Since the 1950s the per capita number of sworn police has more than doubled Imprisonment rate has more than doubled since the 1980s These trends reflect tough on crime policies, common to most Anglophile countries. One of the recent changes to the long term pattern is that while police numbers have risen in recent years, the crime rate has gone down. The 1992 increase in police numbers is the result of the Police/Traffic amalgamation. The recent decrease in the reported crime rate 4

5 goes against the trend of the last 140 years. It is the result of the Policing Excellence Strategy, based on a determined effort to reduce over-policing of communities. Resolution of Offences by Police Over the last ten years, the police have become more effective in solving crimes within standard times. Overall, the resolution rate has gone from about 36% of all reported crimes to nearly 50%. Even more important are the high and improving resolution rates for the most serious offences. For serious violence the resolution rate has gone from 71% to 80% and the murder resolution rate has gone from 62% to 91%. These rates can compare favourably with anywhere else in the world. In the longer term, the percentages of resolved cases will be higher than the rates shown here; for example, the New Zealand Police report that over time they resolve close to 100% of all the cases of murder reported to them. 2 (Source: Ministry of Justice) 2 Gabrielle Maxwell, Changing Crime Rates, , in Addressing the Causes of Offending What is the Evidence? Ed., Gabrielle Maxwell, Institute of Policy Studies, 2009, p.175 5

6 Changes in Police Behaviour One of the major impacts on the recorded crime rate has been the change of Police behaviour between , when Police prosecutions increased and police warnings and Youth Aid diversion declined possibly a reflection on the political call for zero tolerance approaches to policing. In the last three years, the Police have used pre-court warnings for minor adult offenders, increased the level of diversion for young offenders, and engaged in community prevention strategies with high-crime communities. This strategy directly counters the tough on crime political rhetoric, and has bucked the trend by being smart on crime, rather than tough. This is what happens when we exercise our grey matter, rather than perpetuate the myth that the way to reduce crime is to feed the criminal justice system. Demographics The Echo Boomers Recent demographic changes have also impacted on the crime rate. Young people aged years commit the most crime. The number of people in this age group at any one time has a key influence on the crime rate. The more there are, the higher the crime rate. 6

7 (Source: Ministry of Justice) Following World War II, the rise of the Baby Boomer generation dramatically increased the number of young people in this crime-prone age group. As this Baby Boomer cohort has aged, so the number of young people in the 15 to 24 year old age group sometimes called the Echo Boomers has reduced and with it crime. In 1971, young people in the 15 to 24 age group made up 17.3 percent of the general population. By 2006, the number had fallen to 14.4 percent - a 20 percent decrease. The proportion of Māori in that 15 to 24 age group, which was 8.5 percent in 1971, has more than doubled to 19.2 percent in 2006 certainly a factor contributing to the high Māori offending rate. 3 The number of year olds is expected to plateau by 2013, and then decline until Dr Muriel Newman, Crime It s about demography not race NZCPR Weekly, 9 Oct

8 (Source: Ministry of Justice) Reduction in Youth Offending Criminologist Gabrielle Maxwell puts youth offending into perspective It is frequently argued that it is young people who are becoming more dangerous. Certainly, when dramatic events occur in particular neighbourhoods, it is easy to get this impression. But crime hot spots go in cycles. A few years later this socalled crime prone neighbourhood or town will appear quiet and law abiding although nothing much has happened - except that a few ring-leaders have left town or grown up. Meanwhile the overall picture can have been quite different throughout the entire period. 4 Recent data from the Ministry of Justice from shows that the rate at which young people are being apprehended has been on the decline, particularly since Gabrielle Maxwell, Changing Crime Rates, , in Addressing the Causes of Offending What is the Evidence? Ed., Gabrielle Maxwell, Institute of Policy Studies, 2009, p.178 8

9 Rate per 10,000 Police apprehension rates per 10,000 population by age groups for all offences : Year 14 to 16 A Reduction in Criminal Court Volumes All the above factors have contributed to a reduction in Court volumes. While Court volumes were stable through to 2002, a hardening of police attitudes between 2002 and 2005 contributed to an all-time high in 2009/10. Changes in police behaviour led to a reduction in Court volumes in 2010/11. It is predicted that Court volumes will return to the 2005 level by

10 (Source: Ministry of Justice) Can We Expect Further Reductions in the Crime Rate? If the current patterns continue, the Prime Minister should have no difficulty in achieving a reduction in the crime rate. In summary: New Zealand is part of an international declining crime rate trend The Police have shown that provided police behaviour changes, high per capita police numbers do not always result in high crime rates The Policing Excellence Strategy, with its move from a crime control emphasis to a focus on community crime prevention (including pre-charge warnings, diversion and community engagement), moves from being tough on crime to smart on crime A more responsive Police Youth Aid approach would probably result in further gains The number of year olds will decline from 2013 to 2023, and will result in a significant reduction in the crime rate. Imprisonment The Elephant in the Room The one factor that has the potential to change the current positive trend long term, (apart from significant changes to social policy) is the way government manages the imprisonment rate. The next edition will take a closer look at how effective management of imprisonment levels could reduce the crime rate further. 10